Would calling Vladdy up be a bad idea?

[bones10]

 

Vlad homers tonight

 

so why isnt he with the big league team again?

[King]

so why isnt he with the big league team again?

Needs to work on his defense

[bones10]

Needs to work on his defense

 

He could probably boot every ball hit to him and still put up more WAR than Morales.

[Pendleton]

I don't even understand why this discussion is occurring. Zero chance he is brought up this season.

 

If you say so Gbill

[GreekFatAss]

End of June or early July, so probably after the all-star game for the ideal service time manipulation.

[Spanky99]

WHEN IS IT TIME TO PROMOTE A PROSPECT?

 

https://futurebluejays.com/2018/05/0...te-a-prospect/

 

Posted on May 5, 2018 by clutchlings

 

You can’t see it unless you’re there, but there is a wide array of data being collected at each and every minor league game. Behind home plate sit scouts with notebooks and radar guns, as well as last night’s Pitcher, who is charting pitches. Further up, somewhere in the press box level is a Trackman sensor that can capture upwards of 27 different and unique measurements grouped by release point, pitch movement, plate location, and batted ball. In the dugout, the Manager and coaching staff are taking mental notes to include in the post game report they file for the affiliate’s MLB parent. In addition, there are the observations from the club’s roving instructors, training staff, and front office staff that are compiled on a regular basis. Depending on the time of year, front office staff may be in attendance, taking notes. As fans, we don’t get to see this, but there is a mountain of information collected every game.

 

For fans whose actual exposure to a minor league prospect consists of looking up their stats on milb.com while clamoring for the promotion of that player, they’re looking at the tip of the developmental iceberg, missing the bulk of that player’s characteristics which lies below the surface.

 

Promoting a player to the big leagues is a process that can be fraught with hazards. In the words of Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus,

 

Grant promotions too early or too often, and they risk jeopardizing his future by burying him on the bench or subjecting him to the mental and physical rigors of major-league life before he’s equipped to handle them. Delay advancement too long, and they threaten to sabotage his development in a different way, blunting his talents against inferior competition while more expensive players with shorter shelf lives take up space on the big-league roster.

 

We could be talking about any minor leaguer, but of course, we’re mainly discussing Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who is shredding AA pitching at the tender age of 19. The media has been full of suggestions that it’s time to promote the youngster, and Blue Jays-related social media has been circling the bases multiple times with that idea.

 

But as GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, there’s more to promoting a player than his numbers:

 

“That’s just offence, right, when you say statistically,” the Blue Jays GM says in an interview. “There are so many more aspects of the game. And it’s only a month of performance above A-ball, as well. Look, man, we’re elated that he’s having this type of performance and it doesn’t look like this performance is going away, the way he’s doing it.

 

Atkins did not come out and say that Guerrero, who has played less than 200 games at 3B, needs more reps, but he certainly did suggest it:

 

“It’s really two things,” Atkins said of the developmental priorities for Guerrero, “it’s first-step quickness and how that impacts his defence, and best possible teammate, because he has the potential to be a leader.”

 

When it comes down to evaluating whether a prospect is ready for a promotion, teams go far beyond their stats (although minor league numbers, of course, tend to be a good indicator of future MLB success). Everyone involved with the team’s minor league system has a say in whether a player is ready from a competitive and emotional standpoint for the next level. For the Blue Jays, that line starts with VP of Baseball Ops Ben Cherington, whose focus with the team is on player development and their minor league system, through Atkins, and includes Director of Player Personnel Gil Kim, Director or Minor League Ops Charlie Wilson, High Performance Director Angus Mugford, Analytics Staff, Roving Instructors, Minor League team staff, and likely Special Assistant Tim Raines. Gathering consensus from such a large group is probably quite difficult, but all have a say, and a player generally doesn’t move forward until it’s reached. Atkins confirmed that process:

 

(W)e work through a very detailed process to understand all of the risk factors, all of the objective and subjective information in and around what’s best for a player’s development,” said Atkins. “That’s thinking about the complete player, factoring in environment, factoring in competition level, factoring in resources such as coaches, who he’ll be playing alongside of and what that means for putting the best possible challenge in front of our players in the best possible environment. It’s not about the right time. We’re constantly doing that. We’re constantly factoring in all of those factors.”

 

The biggest pitfall in promoting a player is that he proves not to be ready for that level, and many teams tend to err on the side of caution in that regard. The Blue Jays have proven that they don’t mind being aggressive with their prospect promotions, but they have developed a one-step-at-a-time template that they widely adhere to.

 

Each level of the minors has its own developmental challenges for players, and the Blue Jays see value in spending time at each one – including AAA – as Cherington told Sportsnet:

 

“We do feel like it’s important for players to play at the triple-A level. It’s an important development challenge to be here,” Cherington said. “We’ve got players here right now who we really believe in and believe are going to be good major-league players. They are being challenged by this level. This is an important level to be at for some period of time.

 

“It’s a different level of competition than double-A is,” he added. “Different kind of players you’re facing, different matchups, different game-planning strategies — it’s just a different level of play.”

 

A cynic could suggest that service time plays a huge part in the decision about when to promote a player to the bigs, and given past history, they probably wouldn’t be wrong. Fans tend to think about the short-term, while front offices look at a longer time frame. Promoting a player of Guerrero’s age would put him in position to be a free agent when he’s 25, and the Blue Jays have to factor in how that would work with the development of players in the system who will be on the field with him as the next decade approaches.

 

[King]

Vlad hit a 2nd one tonight.

[King]

[John_Havok]

 

Jesus.... that sound. ...

[Captain Adama]

Holy f***.

[BTS]

His wRC+ is going to be like 230 after 120 PA.

[John_Havok]

Relevant (and apology for linking a Griffin article...)

 

https://www.thestar.com/amp/sports/bluejays/opinion/2018/05/07/guerrero-on-fast-track-to-major-leagues.html

 

Is 19-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. too young to be a major leaguer? The son of hall of fame outfielder Vlad Guerrerro is currently dominating Double-A baseball in New Hampshire, heading into the work week with a .398 average and 1.079 OPS in 24 games. Ranked the No. 1 prospect among position players in the minors after the promotion of infielder Ronald Acuna Jr. to the Braves, Vlad has 10 doubles, a triple and three homers among his 37 hits, with 12 walks and 12 strikeouts.

 

What are the pros and cons of the Blue Jays promoting a still-teenaged Guerrero Jr. immediately to the majors? Right now they have Josh Donaldson at third base and Kendrys Morales as the primary DH. The Jays believe they are contenders for a wild-card spot until proven otherwise.

 

Would they be a better team with Vlad Jr. rather than Morales? Yes, but you don’t want a 19-year-old acting as a primary DH if you want him to play a position moving forward. If Donaldson’s arm is healthy — which it looks as if it is — he does not want to be a primary DH headed into free agency.

 

The Jays are paying Morales $11 million (all dollars U.S.) this year and $12 million next year, all of it guaranteed. That contract, with his stats, is impossible to trade or even give away. If another team is at all interested in the 34-year-old and believes the Jays may at some point give up on Morales and release him, they can afford to wait and just be on the hook for the MLB minimum.

 

There is now little doubt that Guerrero will be playing games for the Jays at some point in 2018. If they decide to trade Donaldson by the deadline, it could be as soon as that. If not, then it could be some time in August, by which point a call-up likely wouldn’t mean he’d be eligible for accelerated arbitration in 2020 (as a so-called “Super 2”). Whenever it is this season, he will still be a 19-year-old.

 

Article Continued Below

 

Let’s look back at the way the Expos handled the minor-league path of his father, Vlad Sr. As a 19-year-old, he played in the Gulf Coast Rookie League. The next year, in 1995 at age 20, he played the entire year in the Class-A South Atlantic League. But at 21, he started in the Class-A Florida State League and advanced early to the Double-A Eastern League, where his son is playing now. On Sept. 19, 1996, the Expos finally called him up to the majors and he never looked back.

 

It should be noted that at Double-A Harrisburg before his MLB promotion, Vlad Sr. hit .360 in 118 games with 19 homers, 17 steals, 78 RBIs and a 1.050 OPS.

 

Promoting teenage position players to the majors can be hit and miss.

 

A top-five list of success stories over the last 30 years includes Ken Griffey Jr. (Mariners, 1989), Alex Rodriguez (Mariners, 1994), Adrian Beltre (Dodgers, 1998), Mike Trout (Angels, 2011) and Bryce Harper (Nationals, 2012).

 

The top five teenage breakdowns: Karim Garcia (1995) with the Dodgers, Gene Kingsale (1996) with the O’s, Wilson Betemit (2001) with the Braves, Melvin Upton (2004) with the Rays and Jurickson Profar (2012) with the Rangers.

 

How would Vlad Jr. fit in to the current landscape of young major-league talent that has never seemed more promising?

 

Consider there are currently 10 position players age 22 or younger on 25-man rosters and disabled lists, with the recently recalled Acuna the only 20-year-old in that group.

 

At the Triple-A level, there are 20 position players at 22 or younger. The youngest is Padres second-base prospect Luis Urias, who turns 21 on June 3.

 

At Double-A, there are 44 prospects 22 or younger, led by a trio of talented 19-year-olds: Guerrero Jr., Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and Dodgers catcher Keibert Ruiz.

 

In addition to Guerrero Jr., the Jays have Bo Bichette (20) in Double-A and Richard Urena (22) at Triple-A.

[Stoneyen]

Jesus.... that sound. ...

 

It literally sounds like an aluminum bat. That ball was destroyed wow.

[King]

His wRC+ is going to be like 230 after 120 PA.

This thread is going to look awfully silly. How will the team justify keeping him down until May or June 2019? People will be rioting if he continues like this in about a month, and there's no reason to believe he's going to slow down.

[Brownie19]

His wRC+ is going to be like 230 after 120 PA.

 

and a .400 average.

[tercet]

Does any of this forum not remember 2008 with Travis Snider?

 

Well 95% of you weren't around back then, but let VGJ wait.

Edited May 8, 2018 by tercet
2008

[John_Havok]

Does any of this forum not remember 2008 with Travis Snider?

 

Well 95% of you weren't around back then, but let VGJ wait.

 

http://i.imgur.com/wZNCO3o.png

[John_Havok]

And from baseball america today:

 

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/scouting-vladimir-guerrero-jr-one-of-the-best-teenage-hitters-ever/?amphtml&__twitter_impression=true

 

Scouting Vladimir Guerrero Jr., One Of The Best Teenage Hitters Ever

Vladimir-Guerrero-Jr-2017-Paul-Gierhart

By Ben Badler on May 7, 2018

MANCHESTER, N.H.—He’s 19 years old.

 

That’s what I have to keep reminding myself when I watch Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He’s already a complete hitter—major league ready now with the bat—and one of the best teenage hitters ever.

 

Guerrero, the Blue Jays’ top prospect and the top prospect still in the minor leagues, is hitting .398/.455/.624 in 24 games with Double-A New Hampshire, with as many walks (12) as strikeouts (12) and more extra-base hits (14) than strikeouts. He has humongous raw power, but it’s his incredible bat control, uncanny plate discipline and lack of holes as a hitter that stand out even more. Guerrero’s defense still needs work, but he’s making progress there too.

 

“You kind of forget that he’s 19 sometimes because he’s a pro with everything he does off the field, in the weight room, getting himself ready to play, his work in the cage, his work in the infield,” New Hampshire manager John Schneider said. “He’s just a pro. It’s fun to watch him do it every day.”

 

 

Batting Practice

 

 

Power often develops later in a hitter’s career. Guerrero’s raw power is already a 70 tool, and at 19, there’s time for it to tick up to the top of the 20-80 scale. At 6-foot-2, 225 pounds, Guerrero combines strength and fierce bat speed, launching balls out of the entire stadium to his pull side in BP and hitting them off the hotel beyond the left-center field wall. Even as a teenager among men, Guerrero has louder thunder than anyone on his team by a wide margin. Just as impressive as the pull shots is the way Guerrero approaches BP and his ability to drive the ball to all fields, with line drives that carry all the way to the right-center field wall.

 

“He never gets pull happy,” Schneider said. “If you watch his BP, it’s very meticulous, starting oppo and working his way back to the middle. He just hits it where it’s pitched. He knows he can leave right field, center field, left field. So he doesn’t try to get out of his approach. He doesn’t try to change his swing to try to yank one. Not everyone has that luxury to just hit it where it’s pitched.”

 

Game Hitting

 

 

Everything Guerrero does in batting practice translates into the game. He can knock the ball out to any part of the park and stays with that all-fields approach in games. Guerrero swings aggressively but the stroke itself is compact and efficient. His barrel enters the hitting zone in good position and he stays through the ball extremely well for a young hitter, which helps him drive all types of pitches throughout the strike zone to any part of the field.

 

Guerrero inherited his father’s hand-eye coordination, seldom missing when he swings. While people joke and marvel at his dad’s proclivity for chasing (and hitting) pitches out of the strike zone, Vladdy Jr. is a supremely disciplined hitter. The way he tracks pitches is advanced, recognizing pitches immediately out of the pitcher’s hand and routinely working himself into favorable counts by laying off borderline pitches. Between his pitch recognition, strike-zone discipline and innate feel for the barrel, Guerrero leaves pitchers with few holes to exploit, with the ability to turn around premium velocity or square up breaking balls and changeups on the sweet spot just as well.

 

“He has really good command of the zone,” Schneider said. “He can still throw in a Senior, one-handed, off-the-ground knock, but he has really good command of the zone, too.”

 

Guerrero is the best teenage hitter to come along since Bryce Harper batted .270/.340/.477 in 139 games as a 19-year-old rookie in 2012 with 5.2 WAR, per Baseball-Reference.com. Vladdy Jr. has his dad’s hitting mannerisms, with an offensive profile in the mold of superstars like Manny Ramirez and Frank Thomas. He is already a player with the upside to win a batting title or to lead the league in OBP or slugging in some years.

 

Fielding

 

 

Guerrero is still 19. Just as hard as that is to remember when watching him hit, it’s equally important when evaluating his glove. Guerrero signed with the Blue Jays for $3.9 million as a 16-year-old in 2015, when he was an outfielder who then moved to third base after signing. Many of his peers from that class—if they’re moving on a fast schedule—are making their full-season debuts this year in low Class A. If Guerrero were merely a good hitter instead of a great one, Guerrero would be evaluated as a 19-year-old third baseman in the low Class A Midwest League. Instead, he’s being judged as a potential major league third baseman for 2018.

 

His defense isn’t ready yet, but it’s moving in the right direction. He’s in a race against time pulling at him from both directions, as he needs more time to improve his hands, footwork and other technical aspects of his defense, yet due to his size, he might physically outgrow the position at some point. Guerrero is a big man, but thus far he has maintained his conditioning and worked hard at his agility.

 

He’s not a natural defender at third base. His first-step quickness and lateral range are below-average, but he has shown two things that work well for him at the position. One is his arm, which has improved since signing and plays better in the infield than it did from the outfield. The other is his hand-eye coordination, which is obvious at the plate but translates into the field as well. His coordination and reactions off the bat help him charging in on slow rollers and making the off-balance play.

 

With more improvement, Guerrero has the talent to stay at third base, at least early in his career. Wherever he plays this year—Double-A, Triple-A or Toronto—he needs to be somewhere where he can get repetitions every day at third base.

 

“I think he’s made great progress just in the couple of years that he’s been playing third,” Schneider said. “Obviously he has a plus arm, so I think that spot is a good spot for him at third. There are always things to work on. We’re working on angles to his glove side, we’re working on slow rollers, all these things, and he’s done an outstanding job with it, working at it every day. The thing that’s cool about him is that he comes to the field with a smile on every day, ready to work, ready to roll."

[Captain Adama]

Relevant (and apology for linking a Griffin article...)

 

https://www.thestar.com/amp/sports/bluejays/opinion/2018/05/07/guerrero-on-fast-track-to-major-leagues.html

 

The top five teenage breakdowns: Karim Garcia (1995) with the Dodgers, Gene Kingsale (1996) with the O’s, Wilson Betemit (2001) with the Braves, Melvin Upton (2004) with the Rays and Jurickson Profar (2012) with the Rangers.

 

I wouldn't really call Upton a "bust."

[AledmysDiaz]

Vlad will be the first hitter since Ted Williams to hit .400. anything else is a failure imo

[John_Havok]

I wouldn't really call Upton a "bust."

 

I warned you it was a Griffin article....

[Captain Adama]

Does any of this forum not remember 2008 with Travis Snider?

 

Well 95% of you weren't around back then, but let VGJ wait.

 

So other people can get the idea:

 

Travis Snider in AA: 12.3 BB% 27.4 K% 121 wRC+

 

Vladimir Guerrero in AA: 10.6 BB% & K% 200 wrC+ (not including today)

[John_Havok]

So other people can get the idea:

 

Travis Snider in AA: 5.7 BB% 27.4 K% 121 wRC+

 

Vladimir Guerrero in AA: 10.6 BB% & K% 200 wrC+ (not including today)

 

The comparison isn't even close, he be trolling

[closetjaysfan]

If Donaldson's arm is still a problem at third then the jays have to consider moving him to DH, DFA morales and promote vladd. Otherwise we don't see him until September.

[CBlake]

Now this is something I have been thinking about and hope MLB and the PA consider in the future. Let each kid have one September call up that does not count against service. This would have many benefits including letting a kid like Vladi get a taste of MLB and feel for what it takes to be a big leaguer. Just an idea.

[saskjayfan]

I wouldn't mind bringing SRF up too if we're raiding New Hampshire.

[jaysguy44]

Anyone know Vlad's stats after tonight's game?

[Krylian]

Anyone know Vlad's stats after tonight's game?

 

Really good

[jaysguy44]

Really good

 

Thank you

[G-Snarls]