Offseason Roster Thread 2017-18

[Brownie19]

Quick read on Jays RHP prospect Andrew Case -> http://www.tsn.ca/blue-jays-reliever-case-turning-heads-and-capitalizing-on-opportunity-1.906475

 

C'mon Scott Mitchell - this is absolutely non-sense

 

"His AFL performance comes on the heels of a terrific 2017 season, as Case pitched to a 2.86 ERA in 66 innings, finishing the year one step away from the majors at Triple-A Buffalo."

 

We're only going to reference ERA when suggesting he had a terrific 2017 season? Is it 1995 again? I mean great for this guy, I hope he succeeds, but he had an FIP and xFIP around 4 with a K/9 around 6. There's an extremely good chance he's a nobody.

[BTS]

I wonder how much the White Sox FO believes in Garcia. He was an absolute stud last year after being awful for the first 3-4 years of his career. This reminds me of the Jays and Justin Smoak. Do you try and sell high and cash in now? or do you believe he's made tangible adjustments to sustain this level of play. Like Smoak, Garcia's under control for a couple more seasons, so unless they White Sox really think it's a fluke, they can take the wait and see approach. If he repeats, his value could skyrocket. If he doesn't, he'll have no value.

 

To some extent, the Diamondbacks rolled the dice with Pollack and David Peralta - both of which reverted back to their "old" form (wRC+ of 100 +/-)

 

I love watching these situations to see how they turn out.

 

I wouldn't be buying. It looks like the biggest difference between Garcia in 2017 and Garcia previously is about 70 points of BABIP. His floor is so low. Also, he's pretty fat.

[glory]

I think it's a second for us, but not positive. It sounds like he could be a hot commodity, and has some concerns as it is. I wonder if we're better looking elsewhere?

 

If the cost is a 2nd round pick and $500,000 from the int'l pool, then I don't see Shapiro wasting that on Cobb. The qualifying offer probably means the Jays will look elsewhere. The problem is there isn't too much else out there. Maybe Chatwood?

[ColdPint]

If the cost is a 2nd round pick and $500,000 from the int'l pool, then I don't see Shapiro wasting that on Cobb. The qualifying offer probably means the Jays will look elsewhere. The problem is there isn't too much else out there. Maybe Chatwood?

 

I’d take a shot at Lance Lynn. I think there’s a lot of upside there.

[Boxcar]

Brandon McCarthy probably wouldn't cost us too much and is likely better than Cobb.

[Dam8610]

I'm not a huge Jays prospect homer usually, but Vlad's profile looks far better than Jimenez's. Pretty rare to have an 18 year old putting up godly numbers against older competition while walking more than striking out.

 

Jimenez hit about .350 with an over .200 ISO after being traded to the White Sox, and did that between high A and AA in his age 20 season. He's since carried same level of success over to the most advanced Dominican Winter League. I'd probably take Jimenez over Vlad at this point just because I value success at higher levels, but both are Top 3 prospects (along with Ronald Acuna, who is likely consensus #1) in all of baseball, so it's kind of splitting hairs. You guys have a lot to be excited about in Vlad Jr.

 

I wouldn't be buying. It looks like the biggest difference between Garcia in 2017 and Garcia previously is about 70 points of BABIP. His floor is so low. Also, he's pretty fat.

 

There's a roughly 50 point increase in BABIP from career average, a significant reduction in K rate that appears sustainable since his K rate actually improved over the year, an increase in hard contact rates, and an increase in fly ball rate. He also improved his physical conditioning, which showed most in his improved defensive metrics and infield hit rate (which helps to explain some of the BABIP increase). Everything in his numbers from 2017 suggests some regression is due, and while I suspect the average will experience some negative regression, I think there's a strong possibility of positive regression of his power numbers.

[BTS]

There's a roughly 50 point increase in BABIP from career average, a significant reduction in K rate that appears sustainable since his K rate actually improved over the year, an increase in hard contact rates, and an increase in fly ball rate. He also improved his physical conditioning, which showed most in his improved defensive metrics and infield hit rate (which helps to explain some of the BABIP increase). Everything in his numbers from 2017 suggests some regression is due, and while I suspect the average will experience some negative regression, I think there's a strong possibility of positive regression of his power numbers.

 

I see a 2.5% increase in FB rate, small improvements to PD stats that probably don't support a 4-5% drop in K-rate, and similar contact quality to what he did in 2016.

 

If I'm looking for a driver for his big 2017, the 0.392 BABIP - 72 points higher than the career 320 mark he had entering the year - looks like far and away the biggest reason for his success.

 

His steamer projection (111 wRC+, league average player) seems pretty reasonable to me.

[Dam8610]

I see a 2.5% increase in FB rate, small improvements to PD stats that probably don't support a 4-5% drop in K-rate, and similar contact quality to what he did in 2016.

 

If I'm looking for a driver for his big 2017, the 0.392 BABIP - 72 points higher than the career 320 mark he had entering the year - looks like far and away the biggest reason for his success.

 

His steamer projection (111 wRC+, league average player) seems pretty reasonable to me.

 

That's certainly reasonable, but I think it's also reasonable to project him hitting 5 more HR, having an ISO over .200, a wRC+ in the 130s, and being a near 4 WAR player again.

[Brownie19]

That's certainly reasonable, but I think it's also reasonable to project him hitting 5 more HR, having an ISO over .200, a wRC+ in the 130s, and being a near 4 WAR player again.

 

Actually - it's probably not for all the reasons that BTS said. Does that mean it won't happen? No, it doesn't, but it's unlikely.

[BTS]

That's certainly reasonable, but I think it's also reasonable to project him hitting 5 more HR, having an ISO over .200, a wRC+ in the 130s, and being a near 4 WAR player again.

 

That seems decidedly unreasonable to me.

[Dam8610]

That seems decidedly unreasonable to me.

 

Projecting 5 more HRs than steamer for a player in his mid 20s (when power growth occurs for most players) coming off of two consecutive seasons of the most HRs in MLB history being hit doesn't seem decidedly unreasonable to me.

[BTS]

Projecting 5 more HRs than steamer for a player in his mid 20s (when power growth occurs for most players) coming off of two consecutive seasons of the most HRs in MLB history being hit doesn't seem decidedly unreasonable to me.

 

Sure. But projecting Garcia for a wRC+ in the 130s and around 4 wins is completely unreasonable. I bet no projection systems do it!

[Boxcar]

Jimenez hit about .350 with an over .200 ISO after being traded to the White Sox, and did that between high A and AA in his age 20 season. He's since carried same level of success over to the most advanced Dominican Winter League. I'd probably take Jimenez over Vlad at this point just because I value success at higher levels, but both are Top 3 prospects (along with Ronald Acuna, who is likely consensus #1) in all of baseball, so it's kind of splitting hairs. You guys have a lot to be excited about in Vlad Jr.

 

I dunno, I have always hated guys with the Jimenez profile. He appears to be a bit of a hacker and his BABIP fueling much of his success has me a bit worried. He seems kinda like a Starlin Castro type when he was a big prospect but maybe with less hit and more power and those kinda guys seem prone to having s***** seasons because they hardly ever walk.

 

Meanwhile, Vlad hardly ever strikes out and walks at an absurd clip. So even when the balls aren't bouncing his way, he still gets on base.

 

Kinda concerned about the same thing in regards to Bichette. I always worry that high BABIPs can apply unreasonable expectations on prospects.

[Dam8610]

Sure. But projecting Garcia for a wRC+ in the 130s and around 4 wins is completely unreasonable. I bet no projection systems do it!

 

But projecting 5 more HRs than steamer changes the overall line by that much. Feel free to check the math if you don't believe me.

[BTS]

But projecting 5 more HRs than steamer changes the overall line by that much. Feel free to check the math if you don't believe me.

 

You’re right, I’m sure all the systems will have Garcia at 4 WAR and a wRC+ over 130 next year.

[jays_fever]

I'd be shocked if Garcia was even a 2 war player next year

[THANOS]

I dunno, I have always hated guys with the Jimenez profile. He appears to be a bit of a hacker and his BABIP fueling much of his success has me a bit worried. He seems kinda like a Starlin Castro type when he was a big prospect but maybe with less hit and more power and those kinda guys seem prone to having s***** seasons because they hardly ever walk.

 

Meanwhile, Vlad hardly ever strikes out and walks at an absurd clip. So even when the balls aren't bouncing his way, he still gets on base.

 

Kinda concerned about the same thing in regards to Bichette. I always worry that high BABIPs can apply unreasonable expectations on prospects.

 

Did you see Bichette's spray chart and hard hit %, this past season? A lot of the BABIP can be explained with those.

[Spanky99]

Did you see Bichette's spray chart and hard hit %, this past season? A lot of the BABIP can be explained with those.

 

And it's also the minors, he did say unreasonable expectations, bruh. I and all other Jay fans hope he becomes the player you think he can become, but you've got him as an Altuve, and Vlad Jr. as Miggy, slow down, mate!

[THANOS]

And it's also the minors, he did say unreasonable expectations, bruh. I and all other Jay fans hope he becomes the player you think he can become, but you've got him as an Altuve, and Vlad Jr. as Miggy, slow down, mate!

 

Yeah I know, I'm excited lol, but we haven't had players this good in our system, ever, really.

 

I see those as their ceilings, and, Vladdy's, at least, has been corroborated by several scouts/analysts. I think Bo's hitch in his swing will prevent him from cracking the top 15 in early 2018, but if he does the same thing in AA, I could see him top 5-10 by season's end.

 

Devon Travis was never a highly rated prospect, I don't see how that is a reasonable "ceiling" for someone like Bo, who put up historical numbers in A ball this season with a ridiculous spray chart. Travis also makes a lot of weak contact in his profile, Bo has similar velocity off his bat to Vlad, from most reports and internal interviews on them.

Edited November 7, 2017 by THANOS

[Olerud363]

But projecting 5 more HRs than steamer changes the overall line by that much. Feel free to check the math if you don't believe me.

 

I have some very good trades to propose to you. Your discussion of Eloy Jiminez has peaked my interest. He seems very good, and would fit in with Vlad Jr. and Bo's timeline (2020+)... so I would like to trade for Jiminez.

 

I totally realize that the White Sox value Jiminez very highly, however, what if you could have the opportunity to accelerate your timeline and keep your future intact?? Jiminez would require a lot. I know math very well, I went to University of Waterloo, which is practically Canada's MIT. So let's do the Math.

 

Troy Tulowitzki - Steamer has him at 2.2 WAR next year... however he only hits 18 homers... add 5 homers and better health and that is 4 WAR

Steve Pearce - Steamer has him at 1.3 WAR, but add 5 homers and he is at 2.5 or so - check the math 2.5 WAR

Richard Urena - Steamer has him at 0.0. Steamer has difficulty projecting young players. I think you can add 5 homers this year, and as he matures 10 homers, on top of decent switch hitting and defence - I would project him 4 WAR going forward. Keep in mind Steamer isn't projecting his power quite right, and if we add 10 homers you have the next Didi Gregarious.

Dalton Pompey - Steamer has him at 0.0, but his concussion is messing it all up. Add 15 homers (without the concussion) and you have another 4 WAR player. Check the math

 

So I propose Tulo, Pearce, Urena, and Pompey for Jiminez. This instantly makes the White Sox a contender next year (using the Steamer with "homer bonus" analysis) + makes them better in the future, with two young players (Pompey and Urena) that Steamer is under-rating (because of injuries, and the fact that Urena's homers are probably underestimated).

 

Jays are giving up a lot, but Trade make sense for their 2020 timeline, where they now have a complete middle of the order in Vlad, Bichette and Jiminez (2,3,4)

[Abomination]

Yeah I know, I'm excited lol, but we haven't had players this good in our system, ever, really.

 

I see those as their ceilings, and, Vladdy's, at least, has been corroborated by several scouts/analysts. I think Bo's hitch in his swing will prevent him from cracking the top 15 in early 2018, but if he does the same thing in AA, I could see him top 5-10 by season's end.

 

Devon Travis was never a highly rated prospect, I don't see how that is a reasonable "ceiling" for someone like Bo, who put up historical numbers in A ball this season with a ridiculous spray chart. Travis also makes a lot of weak contact in his profile, Bo has similar velocity off his bat to Vlad, for most reports and internal interviews on them.

 

No one said Devon Travis was a ceiling, or anything about prospect rankings of the two. I said that if you take the type of hitter and defender Travis is, make him healthy, and add a few extra home runs you probably get a good projection for Bo. That's probably a player in the 3 to 4 WAR range every year. Not a superstar, but a very valuable player just the same. These dreams of Altuve though are just silly. Bo does NOT have Altuve's elite speed, and that's a critical factor.

 

As for players in our system, Snider was a VERY highly rated and touted prospect. Sometimes even the highest touted guys don't work out.

[Boxcar]

Did you see Bichette's spray chart and hard hit %, this past season? A lot of the BABIP can be explained with those.

 

No doubt, but he's not going to have a .400 BABIP in the bigs. Honestly, him becoming an average player would be a pretty decent outcome and I don't mean to kill any vibes.

 

Vlad will probably be a HOFer though. I haven't been as excited for a Jays prospect since Travis Snider.

[Boxcar]

Yeah I know, I'm excited lol, but we haven't had players this good in our system, ever, really.

 

I see those as their ceilings, and, Vladdy's, at least, has been corroborated by several scouts/analysts. I think Bo's hitch in his swing will prevent him from cracking the top 15 in early 2018, but if he does the same thing in AA, I could see him top 5-10 by season's end.

 

Devon Travis was never a highly rated prospect, I don't see how that is a reasonable "ceiling" for someone like Bo, who put up historical numbers in A ball this season with a ridiculous spray chart. Travis also makes a lot of weak contact in his profile, Bo has similar velocity off his bat to Vlad, for most reports and internal interviews on them.

 

I want to see Bo repeat before I jump on the hype train.

[THANOS]

No one said Devon Travis was a ceiling, or anything about prospect rankings of the two. I said that if you take the type of hitter and defender Travis is, make him healthy, and add a few extra home runs you probably get a good projection for Bo. That's probably a player in the 3 to 4 WAR range every year. Not a superstar, but a very valuable player just the same. These dreams of Altuve though are just silly. Bo does NOT have Altuve's elite speed, and that's a critical factor.

 

As for players in our system, Snider was a VERY highly rated and touted prospect. Sometimes even the highest touted guys don't work out.

 

That's fair for sure. Maybe I should have phrased it like this, healthy Devon Travis with more pop seems like the average, the floor is a utility guy, and the ceiling is Altuve without the speed. I use Altuve because it's difficult to find someone else to comp to him who had this type of hit tool, spray chart, and hard hit%.

 

We'll see what happens, but his A-Ball numbers for his age are nearly unrivaled since the beginning of fangraphs.

 

No doubt, but he's not going to have a .400 BABIP in the bigs. Honestly, him becoming an average player would be a pretty decent outcome and I don't mean to kill any vibes.

 

Vlad will probably be a HOFer though. I haven't been as excited for a Jays prospect since Travis Snider.

 

He likely won't but that spray chart would seem to indicate he has a talent for finding holes and gaps (yes, that's what she said.. Ugh lol..). So an extremely above-average BABIP in the bigs year over year isn't an unreasonable prediction, if the hitch doesn't affect him in higher levels.

 

I want to see Bo repeat before I jump on the hype train.

 

Fair. We'll see how AA goes.

[Dam8610]

I have some very good trades to propose to you. Your discussion of Eloy Jiminez has peaked my interest. He seems very good, and would fit in with Vlad Jr. and Bo's timeline (2020+)... so I would like to trade for Jiminez.

 

I totally realize that the White Sox value Jiminez very highly, however, what if you could have the opportunity to accelerate your timeline and keep your future intact?? Jiminez would require a lot. I know math very well, I went to University of Waterloo, which is practically Canada's MIT. So let's do the Math.

 

Troy Tulowitzki - Steamer has him at 2.2 WAR next year... however he only hits 18 homers... add 5 homers and better health and that is 4 WAR

Steve Pearce - Steamer has him at 1.3 WAR, but add 5 homers and he is at 2.5 or so - check the math 2.5 WAR

Richard Urena - Steamer has him at 0.0. Steamer has difficulty projecting young players. I think you can add 5 homers this year, and as he matures 10 homers, on top of decent switch hitting and defence - I would project him 4 WAR going forward. Keep in mind Steamer isn't projecting his power quite right, and if we add 10 homers you have the next Didi Gregarious.

Dalton Pompey - Steamer has him at 0.0, but his concussion is messing it all up. Add 15 homers (without the concussion) and you have another 4 WAR player. Check the math

 

So I propose Tulo, Pearce, Urena, and Pompey for Jiminez. This instantly makes the White Sox a contender next year (using the Steamer with "homer bonus" analysis) + makes them better in the future, with two young players (Pompey and Urena) that Steamer is under-rating (because of injuries, and the fact that Urena's homers are probably underestimated).

 

Jays are giving up a lot, but Trade make sense for their 2020 timeline, where they now have a complete middle of the order in Vlad, Bichette and Jiminez (2,3,4)

 

The White Sox timeline begins with 2020, and the point you're trying to make gets lost in translation a bit when you consider that Avi Garcia is entering his age 27 season rather than being on the wrong side of 30, and had a wrist injury midseason that he played through, but which made his power numbers suffer for about a month and a half (feel free to look at his by month splits, it's pretty obvious that his injury occurred at the beginning of July and continued through most of August). I never said that scenario would play out, but it's no more outlandish than Steamer's projection, and even the creators of Steamer will tell you that their projections are nothing more than an educated guess and are inaccurate much more often than they are accurate. They would tell you not to use it the way you're using it.

[Spanky99]

Yeah I know, I'm excited lol, but we haven't had players this good in our system, ever, really.

 

I see those as their ceilings, and, Vladdy's, at least, has been corroborated by several scouts/analysts. I think Bo's hitch in his swing will prevent him from cracking the top 15 in early 2018, but if he does the same thing in AA, I could see him top 5-10 by season's end.

 

Devon Travis was never a highly rated prospect, I don't see how that is a reasonable "ceiling" for someone like Bo, who put up historical numbers in A ball this season with a ridiculous spray chart. Travis also makes a lot of weak contact in his profile, Bo has similar velocity off his bat to Vlad, from most reports and internal interviews on them.

 

Guys flourish later and bust all the time, is all I'm saying, hopefully the latter isn't the case for us. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Terminator]

I wonder if the Jays will continue their trend of trying to strike early in free agency this year.

[BTS]

I wonder if the Jays will continue their trend of trying to strike early in free agency this year.

 

What low-to-mid tier free agents do we want the team to be in on? Some names that I find interesting:

 

C - Avila, Hundley, Iannetta

INF - Walker, Cozart, Nunez

OF - Dyson, Jackson, Gomez, Jay

SP - Cobb, Garcia, Mikolas

[Ray]

What low-to-mid tier free agents do we want the team to be in on? Some names that I find interesting:

 

C - Avila, Hundley, Iannetta

INF - Walker, Cozart, Nunez

OF - Dyson, Jackson, Gomez, Jay

SP - Cobb, Garcia, Mikolas

 

 

Tyler Chatwood would look really nice in our rotation. He's one of the pitchers who's truly been f***ed in Coors when you look at his Home vs. Away splits. No QO and shouldn't be terribly expensive either. I'd be very comfortable giving him 4-5 years. Only 27 years old.

[Cbert]

Tyler Chatwood would look really nice in our rotation. He's one of the pitchers who's truly been f***ed in Coors when you look at his Home vs. Away splits. No QO and shouldn't be terribly expensive either. I'd be very comfortable giving him 4-5 years. Only 27 years old.

 

Man those away numbers look pretty good. Definitely a guy worth looking at. I wonder if he might be a #1 target for the Jays now since both Cobb and Lynn had QOs attached to them.

 

Does anyone think the Jays might pursue a guy like Otani even more aggressively now since those two other guys now have QOs attached to them? Their contracts should be reasonable but this FO doesn't seem to want to sacrifice picks and allotment money on top of contracts. Chatwood is definitely a good target, too, but it seems like dumpster diving after that.