Dam8610

The White Sox timeline begins with 2020, and the point you're trying to make gets lost in translation a bit when you consider that Avi Garcia is entering his age 27 season rather than being on the wrong side of 30, and had a wrist injury midseason that he played through, but which made his power numbers suffer for about a month and a half (feel free to look at his by month splits, it's pretty obvious that his injury occurred at the beginning of July and continued through most of August). I never said that scenario would play out, but it's no more outlandish than Steamer's projection, and even the creators of Steamer will tell you that their projections are nothing more than an educated guess and are inaccurate much more often than they are accurate. They would tell you not to use it the way you're using it.

But projecting 5 more HRs than steamer changes the overall line by that much. Feel free to check the math if you don't believe me.

Projecting 5 more HRs than steamer for a player in his mid 20s (when power growth occurs for most players) coming off of two consecutive seasons of the most HRs in MLB history being hit doesn't seem decidedly unreasonable to me.

That's certainly reasonable, but I think it's also reasonable to project him hitting 5 more HR, having an ISO over .200, a wRC+ in the 130s, and being a near 4 WAR player again.

Jimenez hit about .350 with an over .200 ISO after being traded to the White Sox, and did that between high A and AA in his age 20 season. He's since carried same level of success over to the most advanced Dominican Winter League. I'd probably take Jimenez over Vlad at this point just because I value success at higher levels, but both are Top 3 prospects (along with Ronald Acuna, who is likely consensus #1) in all of baseball, so it's kind of splitting hairs. You guys have a lot to be excited about in Vlad Jr. There's a roughly 50 point increase in BABIP from career average, a significant reduction in K rate that appears sustainable since his K rate actually improved over the year, an increase in hard contact rates, and an increase in fly ball rate. He also improved his physical conditioning, which showed most in his improved defensive metrics and infield hit rate (which helps to explain some of the BABIP increase). Everything in his numbers from 2017 suggests some regression is due, and while I suspect the average will experience some negative regression, I think there's a strong possibility of positive regression of his power numbers.

Thank you for the reasonable response. I honestly had no idea how the Blue Jays FO was valuing prospects against winning now, and the teams who lose out on the J.D. Martinez sweepstakes will likely be the White Sox best market for Garcia. I was just suggesting something as ridiculous as what the person I was replying to suggested. Eloy Jimenez is likely the most coveted position player in the White Sox organization right now as well as a likely Top 3 prospect in all of baseball. The White Sox are rebuilding. Shipping away prospects like Eloy Jimenez for a more risky, less proven asset is not what they're going to do.

That would be entirely counterintuitive for the White Sox. I thought the Blue Jays were on more of a compete timeline than the White Sox, hence the idea. The White Sox would probably send Eloy for Bichette...and Vlad Jr.

Hello there, I'm a White Sox fan that was wondering what Blue Jays fans would think of an Avi Garcia for Bo Bichette trade. I know from my team's perspective, getting a young slugging MIF would make a lot of sense, and Garcia is a younger, cheaper alternative to Martinez, though more risky. What are your thoughts?