Toronto Blue Jays Rebuilding Thread

[Laika]

That's the problem. The guys you want to trade got old fast, are not performing, and are expensive... The guys that you can move easily are young and cheap, and you want to try and build around. I understand that they're f***ed.

 

But what I don't want to see is adding multiple year contacts to try and make a run in 2018.

 

My hope is that they can dump expiring contracts, listen on Happ, Donaldson, Pillar... See if anyone will give you a good return if you eat salary (off-season might be better for Donaldson)... And sign some short term deals on players that might be looking to rebuild their value. I'd listen on Stroman as well... But they would need to knock my socks off.

 

So basically, you want them to be indecisive with no real plan for 2018, hoping some opportunistic trade falls in their lap while maybe signing some s***** stop gap players and making some half assed attempt at competing?

[metafour]

For most of these old players I'm just looking at their production this year vs. their current rest-of-season projections... and the projections are significantly better.

 

You will find that in the case of really old teams that "projections" very often lag behind reality, ie: they rely too much on past performance that isn't coming back versus taking into account that the actual "true skill" of these players may have shifted permanently. Fangraphs has been projecting positive regression for the better part of the past 3+ months, where is it? This team has actually been getting worse after what was a hot-stretch at one point this season (when we went ~26-16 in one stretch and almost climbed back to .500). This team just isn't very good by any objective measure, and if you want to be a "rationalist", then understand that there is a higher chance that the only actually good part of this team (the bullpen) regresses next season than there is of an old and decrepit lineup all of a sudden learning how to run, field, and hit again. Why? We have actually been extremely fortunate in getting top-tier production from a bunch of no-names, the fickleness of relieving suggests that many of these guys could look completely different next year. You see the problem stretches far past just offensive regression; this team is among the worst fielding and base running teams in baseball. Your only "good" defenders (Pillar, Tulo, Donaldson) are actually declining in this regard as all of them are obviously out of their defensive prime. So what if Tulo makes some positive growth offensively next year when his defense (ie: his only carrying skill the past ~2 years) is likely to shift even further to average if not below average next year?

[burlingtonbandit]

If Donaldson bounces back next year he probably fetches more at the 2018 deadline than he does this deadline. Trading him now is both selling low and throwing in the towel on 2018.

 

If he was a pitcher I'd agree but as a bat you'll always have more value the longer the control. If teams evaluate him as a 5 Win player then you get say 7 WAR if he was traded this deadline with about $30M remaining on the deal. Say he comes out and has a 150wRC+ next year well at the deadline he's only going to have 2-3 Wins projected.

 

Teams just don't pay a s*** ton for rental bats the way they do rental pitchers given the effect one can have on a single game in the playoffs.

[wk680]

I woudn't include Bautista. Do you really want to accept his option in order to find out if he can bounce back? I think you have to consider him gone in which case it's a moot point whether he does or doesn't.

 

Yeah this season was to have been the one in which we saw if he could bounce back from a mediocre 2016, but instead he has produced somewhat worse at the plate with continuing loss of running speed. So I would decline the option. Bautista on the other hand will likely be happy to exercise it. He won't even get a 1 year deal for that much money at this point. This may be a spot to fill with a free agent. I wonder what Cain will get in free agency.

 

The Phillies had multiple very bad contracts. It's not hard to imagine that the Jays can get better production in 2018 from the $45M+ paid to Estrada, Bautista and Liriano this year, including raises to the players they want to keep.

 

Out of all the rebuild vs. go for it debates I haven't heard anyone bring up the fact that the FO has a lot of payroll flexibility to work with next year. Which means they have a lot of room for creative ways to rebuild this team.

 

I counted about $51 M coming off the books from free agents after 2017, but a number of players due more in Arb (Pillar, Sanchez, Stroman). The good news with Donaldson's bad season is his last year of Arb he may not be able to get much more than the $17M he is getting this season. And Sanchez's lack of production will similarly keep his contract down. So, yes there will be money to spend on payroll, and I might even advocate going above the 2017 payroll (the money continues to pour in with AL-leading attendance). But I don't know that there is much for 'creative ways' to use that. With the Jays adamant in not trading top prospects, I don't see them getting any quality high paid players in trade. You are pretty much looking at taking on Liriano- or Smoak-type reclamation projects and hoping they can rebound. To me, the question is how aggressive do you go in the free agent market, and with the season the Jays are having, attracting top free agents could turn out be as challenging as ever.

 

Retreat is always an option. It's like pushing half your chips in and then the river card gets turned and you know you're f***ed. You can always fold and spend the next several hands trying to rebuild your chips count, rather than going all in when you pretty much know you have a losing hand.

 

The only debate that remains is, does this team have a losing hand. I think they do... Many don't yet. I hope I'm proven wrong.

 

Yes a tactical retreat must be done. The question then is do you dig in and hunker down or regroup and add some fresh troops for a new attack in 2018.

[glory]

I think the issue here is that if trading Donaldson now isn't going to give them the type of return they want/need, then what's the point? If you're going to sell JD at 50 cents on the dollar than you can do that next year too. I don't want to look back 5 years from now and say "at least we got 3 s***** prospects for JD instead of losing him for nothing". Dammit, I want a real prospect or two. If you want to rebuild, you'll need to trade for real prospects. Otherwise you can just let them go for nothing and start from scratch after 2018. I mean, what the hell is the difference?

[Omar]

If Donaldson bounces back next year he probably fetches more at the 2018 deadline than he does this deadline. Trading him now is both selling low and throwing in the towel on 2018.

 

Donaldson, a star player, has pedigree so unlike Smoak (maybe catching fire in a bottle) his value will not fluctuate as much as other players even with a down year in 2017; therefore the added value you seek of a strong start in 2018 will be diminished. For the record I'm in the do not trade this year camp.

[Terminator]

I think the issue here is that if trading Donaldson now isn't going to give them the type of return they want/need, then what's the point? If you're going to sell JD at 50 cents on the dollar than you can do that next year too. I don't want to look back 5 years from now and say "at least we got 3 s***** prospects for JD instead of losing him for nothing". Dammit, I want a real prospect or two. If you want to rebuild, you'll need to trade for real prospects. Otherwise you can just let them go for nothing and start from scratch after 2018. I mean, what the hell is the difference?

 

That's exactly it. None of our assets would really return stud prospects but for Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna. Donaldson would as well. Trading any of those guys would probably be punting on 2018 though and all could still get something next deadline. In the case of Sanchez and Donaldson you might not get any less by trading them next year. Could get more.

[Terminator]

Two guys I'd like to see the Jays target in Free Agency are Eduardo Nunez and Tyler Chatwood.

[Cbert]

I'd say our outfield is a big place for improvement next year and the Marlins may be opening the floodgates once they sell the team. I read somewhere a lot of execs believe they would trade Stanton in an almost pure salary dump. If the Jays were comfortable taking on the contract, what do you think the cost would be to acquire him and Yelich?

If we could pull the trigger on a deal like that and go hard after a top starter, we'd be setup for 2018 and beyond.

[ColdPint]

I'd say our outfield is a big place for improvement next year and the Marlins may be opening the floodgates once they sell the team. I read somewhere a lot of execs believe they would trade Stanton in an almost pure salary dump. If the Jays were comfortable taking on the contract, what do you think the cost would be to acquire him and Yelich?

If we could pull the trigger on a deal like that and go hard after a top starter, we'd be setup for 2018 and beyond.

 

Not a chance for Stanton. You'd have to empty the farm, and that's just not going to happen with this FO.

 

Not to mention it would be a counterproductive move.

[wk680]

Two guys I'd like to see the Jays target in Free Agency are Eduardo Nunez and Tyler Chatwood.

 

Yeah Chatwood has a high GB rate and will only be 28 entering next season. I was thinking about Lance Lynn, who also has a high GB rate, but will be 31 and may cost considerably more.

[Cbert]

Not a chance for Stanton. You'd have to empty the farm, and that's just not going to happen with this FO.

 

Not to mention it would be a counterproductive move.

 

Would it cost the farm to get him though, if the Jays were willing to take on the entire contract? Not arguing it wouldn't as the guy is an elite hitter, but I just recall reading an article about a lot of teams thinking the price won't be too high if the acquiring team takes on his whole salary.

[metafour]

Would it cost the farm to get him though, if the Jays were willing to take on the entire contract? Not arguing it wouldn't as the guy is an elite hitter, but I just recall reading an article about a lot of teams thinking the price won't be too high if the acquiring team takes on his whole salary.

 

Yeah bro; you are going to get a top player who is still 27 years old for a straight salary dump.

 

Ain't happening.

[BTS]

That Stanton contract is going to immediately be an albatross for whoever acquires it. Would not touch.

[Krylian]

So basically, you want them to be indecisive with no real plan for 2018, hoping some opportunistic trade falls in their lap while maybe signing some s***** stop gap players and making some half assed attempt at competing?

 

Works for TBay

[Krylian]

Yeah this season was to have been the one in which we saw if he could bounce back from a mediocre 2016, but instead he has produced somewhat worse at the plate with continuing loss of running speed. So I would decline the option. Bautista on the other hand will likely be happy to exercise it. He won't even get a 1 year deal for that much money at this point. This may be a spot to fill with a free agent. I wonder what Cain will get in free agency.

 

 

 

I counted about $51 M coming off the books from free agents after 2017, but a number of players due more in Arb (Pillar, Sanchez, Stroman). The good news with Donaldson's bad season is his last year of Arb he may not be able to get much more than the $17M he is getting this season. And Sanchez's lack of production will similarly keep his contract down. So, yes there will be money to spend on payroll, and I might even advocate going above the 2017 payroll (the money continues to pour in with AL-leading attendance). But I don't know that there is much for 'creative ways' to use that. With the Jays adamant in not trading top prospects, I don't see them getting any quality high paid players in trade. You are pretty much looking at taking on Liriano- or Smoak-type reclamation projects and hoping they can rebound. To me, the question is how aggressive do you go in the free agent market, and with the season the Jays are having, attracting top free agents could turn out be as challenging as ever.

 

 

 

Yes a tactical retreat must be done. The question then is do you dig in and hunker down or regroup and add some fresh troops for a new attack in 2018.

 

Where do you get the troops?

[wk680]

Yeah bro; you are going to get a top player who is still 27 years old for a straight salary dump.

 

Ain't happening.

 

This is not just any salary dump. He is owed about $290 M through 2027, and the Marlins are sitting on a pile of debt with ongoing operating losses. That's not to say they won't want quality players in return. Anyway, it will likely have to wait until new ownership is in place and put their own plans into place.

[wk680]

Where do you get the troops?

 

I think it is like you said in an earlier post:

"See if anyone will give you a good return if you eat salary (off-season might be better for Donaldson)... And sign some short term deals on players that might be looking to rebuild their value."

The latter would be the key to success in 2018 (along with some returning players rebounding). It might look like the Red Sox in 2013 in a best case scenario. Jays could also get some meaningful contributions in 2018 from guys like Gurriel and Alford (like Boston did with Bogaerts in 2013).

[Cbert]

Yeah bro; you are going to get a top player who is still 27 years old for a straight salary dump.

 

Ain't happening.

 

Yeah didn't mean to imply it would be a straight dump, just don't think it would necessarily be a farm crippler either.

 

I'm more for the rebuild than the retool anyways. I don't see a lot of FA talent this offseason that will keep this team contending. But if Rogers is firm on wanting to contend, then they'd better be prepared to pay because they will need to upgrade the offense big time. That's why my mind has wandered to a guy like Stanton. Figured his contract might suppress his prospect value

[metafour]

I think it is like you said in an earlier post:

"See if anyone will give you a good return if you eat salary (off-season might be better for Donaldson)... And sign some short term deals on players that might be looking to rebuild their value."

The latter would be the key to success in 2018 (along with some returning players rebounding). It might look like the Red Sox in 2013 in a best case scenario. Jays could also get some meaningful contributions in 2018 from guys like Gurriel and Alford (like Boston did with Bogaerts in 2013).

 

This team has far too many holes to seriously think that you can just go into free agency and find the missing pieces. Its a pipe dream.

[Bobthe4th]

This team has far too many holes to seriously think that you can just go into free agency and find the missing pieces. Its a pipe dream.

 

TBF that's not what he is saying. He specifically says in the post you quoted "along with some returning players rebounding" and "Jays could get some meaningful contributions from guys like Gurriel and Alford".

[wk680]

This team has far too many holes to seriously think that you can just go into free agency and find the missing pieces. Its a pipe dream.

 

Need guys from within the organization to step up as well. Yes it's a pipe dream, because pretty much everything would need to go right.

[metafour]

TBF that's not what he is saying. He specifically says in the post you quoted "along with some returning players rebounding" and "Jays could get some meaningful contributions from guys like Gurriel and Alford".

 

By that measure, every team in the league can contend for the playoffs next year. Why stop there? Maybe Conner Greene comes up like 2016 Sanchez? Maybe Pompey puts up a star season? Maybe Tellez is next year's Cody Bellinger?

 

Or, maybe JA Happ turns into next year's version of the 2017 Estrada?

[wk680]

By that measure, every team in the league can contend for the playoffs next year. Why stop there? Maybe Conner Greene comes up like 2016 Sanchez? Maybe Pompey puts up a star season? Maybe Tellez is next year's Cody Bellinger?

 

Or, maybe JA Happ turns into next year's version of the 2017 Estrada?

 

Yes and teams that look like powerhouses on paper at the beginning of April sometimes bomb. Likelihood of Jays going to the WS in 2018 is small but tearing the team down to the foundation isn't necessarily the best way forward either. It will be a very tricky balancing act for the FO.

 

ETA: with the 2nd wild card pretty much every team does go into the season with a chance if everything breaks their way. Look at the Twins rollercoaster over the past 3 seasons

[Bobthe4th]

By that measure, every team in the league can contend for the playoffs next year. Why stop there? Maybe Conner Greene comes up like 2016 Sanchez? Maybe Pompey puts up a star season? Maybe Tellez is next year's Cody Bellinger?

 

Or, maybe JA Happ turns into next year's version of the 2017 Estrada?

 

Well yeah, you're exaggerating but there's some truth to that. No one knows whether the Jays will be good enough for the playoffs next season.

 

We need a combination of some new players (including prospects) doing well and at least a few players like Tulo and Sanchez to have better seasons.

[admin]

sure

 

I'll bump this in a year. Let's see who the stupid one is then.

[jays4life19]

BTS, I think it's time to put together the off-season roster thread.

[Laika]

I'll bump this in a year. Let's see who the stupid one is then.

 

More like 8 months, but okay.

 

If they go for it again in 2018 then you need to delete the board

[admin]

More like 8 months, but okay.

 

If they go for it again in 2018 then you need to delete the board

 

No, I have no problem if they go for it, assuming they make enough moves. You thinking a bunch of our mid 30s players are all going to bounce back is what I'm talking about.

[Laika]

No, I have no problem if they go for it, assuming they make enough moves. You thinking a bunch of our mid 30s players are all going to bounce back is what I'm talking about.

 

I see we're just going to whip out a bunch of strawmen at this point. Excellent.

 

When I said people were "embarrassingly stupid" I was talking about the ones who think "going for it next year is a joke". I don't even know why you got involved and tried to argue with me about something if you think they could reasonably go for it in 2018, which is my main argument.