Is the 2017 team better, worse or equivalent to the 2016 team

[G-Snarls]

With only about 2 weeks to spring training, the roster changes are likely done barring some major surprise or minor deals. This is probably the team. Deals and players we got and didn't get have been discussed at length in the roster thread, now we can discuss the overall team as it stands.

 

Briefly:

 

- The starting rotation is the same as we ended the season with. It looks good though we were lucky with health last year.

 

- Dickey and Thole are both gone

 

- Bautista is back

 

- Edwin is gone :(

 

- Cecil is gone, replaced with Howell

 

- Rest of the bullpen is similar

 

- Morales and Pearce look like good price/performance signings

 

- The cornertsone veterans of Donaldson/Tulo/Martin are back and a year older

 

- The bench is not bad with Zeke, Salty and Barney

 

So...

 

What do you think. Is this team better, worse or about the same as the 2016 team and why?

Edited February 2, 2017 by G-Snarls

[intentional wok]

Worse. Not that much weaker than last year, but still technically "worse".

[Abomination]

With only a few weeks to spring training, the roster changes are likely done barring some major surprise or minor deals. This is probably the team. Deals and players we got and didn't get have been discussed at length in the roster thread

 

Briefly:

 

- The starting rotation is the same as we ended the season with. It looks good though we were lucky with health last year.

 

- Dickey and Thole are both gone

 

- Bautista is back

 

- Edwin is gone :(

 

- Cecil is gone, replaced with Howell

 

- Rest of the bullpen is similar

 

- Morales and Pearce look like good price/performance signings

 

- The cornertsone veterans of Donaldson/Tulo/Martin are back and a year older

 

- The bench is not bad with Zeke, Salty and Barney

 

So...

 

What do you think. Is this team better, worse or about the same as the 2016 team and why?

 

With some good luck health wise, we could be better. Liriano >> Dickey, Pearce << Edwin, Morales > various guys at 1B/DH who aren't Edwin, LF ~= Saunders once defense is factored in (I'm considering Pearce 1B primarily), Cecil >> Howell, MiLB bullpen options > last year's. Bautista, Martin, Stroman, and Travis should have better years as well, Estrada and Sanchez probably worse.

[P2F]

I feel like this team will be virtually indifferent to last year's, assuming similar health. Of course, we can't assume that, but for comparisons' sake...

[Terminator]

We have a lot of guys north of 30 that are another year older and we lost EE. I think we are worse but I was tempted to vote same.

[BTS]

Worse

[KingKat]

The team didn't get any better on paper nor did it get any younger. It has to be considered worse. Maybe not by much but still probably worse. Health will play a big role. With good health the team should still be a deadline contender. A few bad breaks and it could be a lost season.

[intentional wok]

We have a lot of guys north of 30 that are another year older and we lost EE. I think we are worse but I was tempted to vote same.

 

I think what we have is technically worse. The team didn't get drastically better in any way and is now one more year older in general. All it takes is an injury in the rotation to make it obviously worse.

[Sammy225]

I got us pegged at about a win or 2 less then last year. Health obviously is a big factor as well.

[G-Snarls]

How much of an impact will Gibby have managing the LF and 1B platoons?

[intentional wok]

How much of an impact will Gibby have managing the LF and 1B platoons?

 

Seems like this is a scenario in which a manager's decisions can actually have a fairly large effect over 162 games. If he gives too many ABs to Smoak over a healthy and capable Pearce, then he could conceivably leave an entire win's worth of production on the bench. Is there an argument against this?

[Terminator]

How much of an impact will Gibby have managing the LF and 1B platoons?

 

A lot. The better players (Pearce and Upton) are on the short side of the platoons as currently constructed. Gibby will need to platoon them a lot less or he risks giving the lion's share of playing time to Smoak and Zeke.

[Captain Adama]

While I put similar, the team will probably be worse. The 2016 team was projected for 86 wins and 2017 team for 84, but looking at position for position, it's not too different aside from Edwin gone. I feel the improved pitching depth will save this team from being much worse than it was last year.

[G-Snarls]

It feels pretty close to me

 

No Goins or Thole

 

Bullpen about the same

 

Core players still very good

 

Bautista, Upton and Travis will almost certainly be better this year

 

Someone in the starting rotation will probably get hurt or have a bad year but there is better depth

 

Overall feels equivalent to maybe 1-2 wins less, with the ability to improve at the trade deadline if they're in it

[Dick_Pole]

Better. Cecil went 1-7 and he's gone. Dickey went 10-15 and he's gone. So all the Jays have to do is replace their 11-22 with .500 pitchers and they are 5.5 games better. In fact, Liriano went 2-2 last year in 8 starts so he'll probably go something like 12-12 over 33 starts so the Jays already have most of that covered.

 

Subtract 3.5 for the WAR difference on Edwin versus Morales and the Jays are still 2 games better. 91 wins for 2017.

[intentional wok]

While I put similar, the team will probably be worse. The 2016 team was projected for 86 wins and 2017 team for 84, but looking at position for position, it's not too different aside from Edwin gone. I feel the improved pitching depth will save this team from being much worse than it was last year.

 

I think there's plenty of talent on the 2017 team that could actually perform better than 2016's. I voted and am arguing for worse simply because conventional expectations seem to suggest a weaker team.

 

Also a factor for Win total is the strengthening of the division. Boston is stronger, Tampa is stronger, New York could easily overachieve, and Baltimore, as much as we hate them, will still probably play at a 76-79 win pace by homering their way through middling pitching staffs. 76 games against these teams will be some tough waters for the Blue Jays' playoff hopes, despite how well they project.

[G-Snarls]

Better. Cecil went 1-7 and he's gone. Dickey went 10-15 and he's gone. So all the Jays have to do is replace their 11-22 with .500 pitchers and they are 5.5 games better. In fact, Liriano went 2-2 last year in 8 starts so he'll probably go something like 12-12 over 33 starts so the Jays already have most of that covered.

 

Subtract 3.5 for the WAR difference on Edwin versus Morales and the Jays are still 2 games better. 91 wins for 2017.

 

Is the first paragraph serious?

[G-Snarls]

I think there's plenty of talent on the 2017 team that could actually perform better than 2016's. I voted and am arguing for worse simply because conventional expectations seem to suggest a weaker team.

 

Also a factor for Win total is the strengthening of the division. Boston is stronger, Tampa is stronger, New York could easily overachieve, and Baltimore, as much as we hate them, will still probably play at a 76-79 win pace. 76 games against these teams will be some tough waters for the Blue Jays' playoff hopes, despite how well they project.

 

Good point on the rest of the division

 

The team could be "as good" as 2016 and still win fewer games

[Dick_Pole]

Is the first paragraph serious?

 

Uhhhhh...I voted "better", did I not?

[glory]

How much of an impact will Gibby have managing the LF and 1B platoons?

 

Pearce and Upton are better than Smoak and Zeke but the latter may get the bulk of the AB's against RHP, at least early on. It will make some difference.

[fatcowxlive]

Worse but not by that much I don't think

[Jonn]

Worse and the division is better.

[Grant77]

Quantitatively worse than last year. We're an old team that is a year older. We lost 2 key performers and replaced them with lesser players without improving in other areas. The farm system isn't in any better of a position to help us immediately. I can't really pinpoint a single area where we have improved.

[Sammy225]

Worse and the division is better.

 

Baltimore has a very real chance of finishing last this year. I see the Jays in the Wild Card hunt. I Don't see any other East team competing too much with Boston.

[Jonn]

Baltimore has a very real chance of finishing last this year. I see the Jays in the Wild Card hunt. I Don't see any other East team competing too much with Boston.

 

I don't see anyone competing with Boston but I still think the division is better.

[RealAccountant]

Better. Cecil went 1-7 and he's gone.

 

Thank god, the blown game machine is gone

[Captain Adama]

Baltimore has a very real chance of finishing last this year. I see the Jays in the Wild Card hunt. I Don't see any other East team competing too much with Boston.

 

Tampa Bay is a real wild card threat. And NYY is a good sleeper.

[Sammy225]

Tampa Bay is a real wild card threat. And NYY is a good sleeper.

 

I don't know i See Tampa being much better..... I see New York being close to the same.... O's startin Pitching is still the drizzling shits and I can't see another season like what Trumbo had.... I see them taking a step back and The jays 1-2 wins less..... Boston will win the Division by 6 games.

[Spanky99]

Similar at fWAR at the moment... we'll see.

[JFD]

Better because Stroman and Travis will emerge as All Stars.