Blue Jays Sign Jose Bautista

[Spanky99]

Morosi said on PTS that after were done signing Bautista the FO wont add anymore to the OF.

 

 

 

Please tell me he's trolling.

 

Morosi doesn't know s***.

[george09]

Morosi doesn't know s***.

 

 

 

Well Shi also mentioned on Blair's show that the most realistic outcome will be a Carrera/Upton/Pearce LF

 

 

Just hope that doesn't happen.

[JFD]

If this doesn't happen, I'm taking my rage out on Spanky.

[L54]

Well Shi also mentioned on Blair's show that the most realistic outcome will be a Carrera/Upton/Pearce LF

 

 

Just hope that doesn't happen.

 

I think it's pretty likely that if they sign Bautista they won't be adding another outfielder.

[george09]

I think it's pretty likely that if they sign Bautista they won't be adding another outfielder.

 

 

So were going to roll with a Zeke/Upton platoon? We need another outfielder to platoon with Upton.

[Bobthe4th]

So were going to roll with a Zeke/Upton platoon? We need another outfielder to platoon with Upton.

 

Yes, most likely we are, with a bit of Pearce in the OF as well.

 

The remaining free agents aren't big upgrades, and a trade for anymore who is significantly better would likely cost too much or create a gap elsewhere (e.g. If we traded a starter).

[Nafro]

If this doesn't happen, I'm taking my rage out on Spanky.

 

My sources are telling me Spanky IS the reason this is not done yet.

[Angrioter]

Robinson Cano "Marcell Ozuna and Jose Bautista could be the next 2 clients for ROC Nation"

[Gary]

So is this deal now dead?

[BTS]

Yes, most likely we are, with a bit of Pearce in the OF as well.

 

The remaining free agents aren't big upgrades, and a trade for anymore who is significantly better would likely cost too much or create a gap elsewhere (e.g. If we traded a starter).

 

I disagree that the remaining free agents aren't big upgrades, at least if you mean big enough to be significant. Carrera is replacement level, and is currently set to be the big side of a LF platoon, even with Bautista. Replacing him with Moss/Pagan/Valbuena is a 1-2 win upgrade.

[Pendleton]

So is this deal now dead?

 

No, what gives you that idea?

[Brownie19]

I disagree that the remaining free agents aren't big upgrades, at least if you mean big enough to be significant. Carrera is replacement level, and is currently set to be the big side of a LF platoon, even with Bautista. Replacing him with Moss/Pagan/Valbuena is a 1-2 win upgrade.

 

I still think Valbuena's the guy - simply because it eliminates Smoak from the equation. I'm cautiously optimistic that Upton is going to play better for the Jays this year. If you take the last 2 partial season in SD, he was a 3 WAR player. He'd seemingly returned to the player he was in Tampa (and not the hot garbage he was in Atlanta). Of course when he got to Toronto, he was back to being hot garbage, but I think we underestimate how difficult it is to change teams mid-season. We saw this with Tulo as well. I think there's an outside chance he's able to give us a league average bat (wRC+ of 100) with above average base running (something we could really use) and solid defense.

[KingKat]

I still think Valbuena's the guy -

 

Valbuena's flexibility is very appealing. Makes it easier to carry Zeke if you are concerned about losing him to lack of options because you're not adding another OF only player. It also makes it easier to move on from Smoak as you said and it would give the team a backup 3B option that's isn't just a glove only guy. He just fits in a lot of ways and I'm a fan of him generally. I wish he had never gotten away.

[BTS]

Yup, Valbuena makes so much sense. Can be Donaldson's primary backup, can handle 2B if Travis goes down, and can obviously handle 1B. I'd have him shagging flies in LF in ST too just to see how comfortable he looks. The team would have to make Smoak go away though. Or waive Carrera, but I don't think they'll do that.

[Sammy225]

Yup, Valbuena makes so much sense. Can be Donaldson's primary backup, can handle 2B if Travis goes down, and can obviously handle 1B. I'd have him shagging flies in LF in ST too just to see how comfortable he looks. The team would have to make Smoak go away though. Or waive Carrera, but I don't think they'll do that.

 

I don't know i would be so excited if they landed Pagan. That is the guy i have been wanting since November. I think him and Upton would be the perfect platoon pairing

[glory]

Valbuena is definitely the guy to target, not only for an upgrade at first, but he can play multiple positions, and the Jays don't have much depth. Don't think they'll have enough available funds to get him though.

[Spanky99]

If this doesn't happen, I'm taking my rage out on Spanky.

 

My sources are telling me Spanky IS the reason this is not done yet.

 

Hnnngghhh...

[Bobthe4th]

I disagree that the remaining free agents aren't big upgrades, at least if you mean big enough to be significant. Carrera is replacement level, and is currently set to be the big side of a LF platoon, even with Bautista. Replacing him with Moss/Pagan/Valbuena is a 1-2 win upgrade.

 

In the last 2 years Moss has provided a total of 1 WAR over Carrera, and Pagan 0.6 WAR over Carrera.

 

While I agree that both have a higher upside (Carrera in a 4th outfielder role gives you a peak of 1-1.5 WAR at best) I don't consider either to be good enough to start every day, and that's what I'd call a significant upgrade.

 

As Brownie says, Valbuena is more of a replacement for Smoak, but more versatile. Which I'd be happy with btw, I think Smoak is more of an issue than Carrera.

[fatcowxlive]

Yup, Valbuena makes so much sense. Can be Donaldson's primary backup, can handle 2B if Travis goes down, and can obviously handle 1B. I'd have him shagging flies in LF in ST too just to see how comfortable he looks. The team would have to make Smoak go away though. Or waive Carrera, but I don't think they'll do that.

 

Maybe some team will bite on a Smoak for a half-decent AAA starter who can act as depth

[BTS]

In the last 2 years Moss has provided a total of 1 WAR over Carrera, and Pagan 0.6 WAR over Carrera.

 

While I agree that both have a higher upside (Carrera in a 4th outfielder role gives you a peak of 1-1.5 WAR at best) I don't consider either to be good enough to start every day, and that's what I'd call a significant upgrade.

 

As Brownie says, Valbuena is more of a replacement for Smoak, but more versatile. Which I'd be happy with btw, I think Smoak is more of an issue than Carrera.

 

I think Carrera is getting a bit of the 2015 Ryan Goins/Chris Colabello treatment on this forum right now: player with replacement-level skills has a good season (if you buy the 10 UZR/150 - I don't), that season represents a sizeable proportion of his MLB PA, and people start penciling him in for above-replacement production the following year. I think that, much like Goins and Colabello, he's closer to washing out of the majors than he is to carving out consistent playing time over the next few years.

[Pendleton]

Maybe some team will bite on a Smoak for a half-decent AAA starter who can act as depth

 

Or even if we could move him reclamation project reliever and maybe save a couple million bucks in the process, that would work.

[Bobthe4th]

I think Carrera is getting a bit of the 2015 Ryan Goins/Chris Colabello treatment on this forum right now: player with replacement-level skills has a good season (if you buy the 10 UZR/150 - I don't), that season represents a sizeable proportion of his MLB PA, and people start penciling him in for above-replacement production the following year. I think that, much like Goins and Colabello, he's closer to washing out of the majors than he is to carving out consistent playing time over the next few years.

 

Fair enough if your point is more general, but at no point have I tried to make out Carrera is anything more than what he is - a very cheap, squad filler player who'll provide 0.5 to 1 WAR.

 

I don't believe upgrading on him right now from the options available is the most efficient use of the remaining budget.

[Bobthe4th]

Or even if we could move him reclamation project reliever and maybe save a couple million bucks in the process, that would work.

 

That seems more likely, there's no way Smoak would get the same contract in free agency so we'd likely have to eat salary or package a prospect to get rid of him in a trade.

[BTS]

Fair enough if your point is more general, but at no point have I tried to make out Carrera is anything more than what he is - a very cheap, squad filler player who'll provide 0.5 to 1 WAR.

 

I don't believe upgrading on him right now from the options available is the most efficient use of the remaining budget.

 

I think expecting 0.5 to 1 WAR is too optimistic, because I think he's a true talent replacement-level player. We saw the best he has to offer in 2016: he hit about as good as he can hope to hit, picked up 5 runs via UZR (which is probably not an accurate reflection of his actual defensive ability), and we have a +7 run season. It could happen again. Or the opposite could happen and he loses half a step in the OF at 30, he has a wRC+ of 50 in May, and he's cut in early June with -0.5 fWAR. I think these two outcomes are equally likely.

[Bobthe4th]

I think expecting 0.5 to 1 WAR is too optimistic, because I think he's a true talent replacement-level player. We saw the best he has to offer in 2016: he hit about as good as he can hope to hit, picked up 5 runs via UZR (which is probably not an accurate reflection of his actual defensive ability), and we have a +7 run season. It could happen again. Or the opposite could happen and he loses half a step in the OF at 30, he has a wRC+ of 50 in May, and he's cut in early June with -0.5 fWAR. I think these two outcomes are equally likely.

 

Sure I agree that he could fail.

 

If that happens we'd have to do something, maybe give Pompey a shot.

 

But unless or until it does I don't want to spend more of the limited budget that's left over after Bautista signs, on someone like a 35 year old Pagan who's 1 year away from a -0.7 WAR season.

[BTS]

Sure I agree that he could fail.

 

If that happens we'd have to do something, maybe give Pompey a shot.

 

But unless or until it does I don't want to spend more of the limited budget that's left over after Bautista signs, on someone like a 35 year old Pagan who's 1 year away from a -0.7 WAR season.

 

All of this is probably moot anyway, because I'm fine with Carrera as a 5th OF, and the player I'd actually want cut in favour of Moss/Pagan/Valbuena is Justin Smoak. Not sure if the team is more likely to waive Carrera or eat Smoak's 8.5M though.

[Bobthe4th]

All of this is probably moot anyway, because I'm fine with Carrera as a 5th OF, and the player I'd actually want cut in favour of Moss/Pagan/Valbuena is Justin Smoak. Not sure if the team is more likely to waive Carrera or eat Smoak's 8.5M though.

 

Haha, yeah I'm 100% with you there.

[West Texas Forever]

Signing is done, Sportsnet will stream this ASAP, stay tuned for the link everyone!

[z3r0s]

Pagan just seems to make so much sense. He's got to be cheap at this point and the move to LF helped mitigate his defensive issues (I can't believe he was playing centre as late as 2015). He's a fairly known commodity at the plate and my even get a boost going to a better set of parks.

[Governator]

Signing is done, Sportsnet will stream this ASAP, stay tuned for the link everyone!

 

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