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reedjohnsonfan

By reedjohnsonfan
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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Jimcanuck Buffalo Bisons

Jimcanuck

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Rotation a bit low but understandable given the poor depth. Will need good health.

 

Bullpen ranked too high, it sucks. Watch Gibby overuse Osuna early on and he never recovers.

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burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Think the rotation should be a little higher but the depth is pretty bad. Liriano's projection in particular seems pretty low. When you compare the bullpen to other teams especially contenders it looks pretty bad. Osuna is really their only great reliever and his velo is down this spring with back issues.

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Rotation a bit low but understandable given the poor depth. Will need good health.

 

Bullpen ranked too high, it sucks. Watch Gibby overuse Osuna early on and he never recovers.

 

I really don't think the pen sucks. Osuna is just under the super-elite tier of relievers, and then you have a pretty deep group of quality arms in Grilli, Smith, Biagini, Loup, Howell, and Bolsinger in long relief (I'm assuming that's how it shakes out anyway). I think the pen will be a strength.

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I really don't think the pen sucks. Osuna is just under the super-elite tier of relievers, and then you have a pretty deep group of quality arms in Grilli, Smith, Biagini, Loup, Howell, and Bolsinger in long relief (I'm assuming that's how it shakes out anyway). I think the pen will be a strength.

 

Looking through the other teams projections and seems a lot of teams even the ones behind Toronto have relievers projected to be better than that 2-6 group. Seems like those guys are more of a dime/dozen.

 

I like Grilli quite a bit but he's getting to be pretty damn old.

Jimcanuck Buffalo Bisons

Jimcanuck

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I really don't think the pen sucks. Osuna is just under the super-elite tier of relievers, and then you have a pretty deep group of quality arms in Grilli, Smith, Biagini, Loup, Howell, and Bolsinger in long relief (I'm assuming that's how it shakes out anyway). I think the pen will be a strength.

 

Volatile. Could be good, could be bad. I'm naturally pessimistic.

John_Havok MVP

John_Havok

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I really don't think the pen sucks. Osuna is just under the super-elite tier of relievers, and then you have a pretty deep group of quality arms in Grilli, Smith, Biagini, Loup, Howell, and Bolsinger in long relief (I'm assuming that's how it shakes out anyway). I think the pen will be a strength.

 

He touches on Biagini a bit in the article, last year he put up 1.2 WAR but this year only projected for 0.2. Even getting to 0.7 WAR would up their projected placing to 10th overall.

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Looking through the other teams projections and seems a lot of teams even the ones behind Toronto have relievers projected to be better than that 2-6 group. Seems like those guys are more of a dime/dozen.

 

I like Grilli quite a bit but he's getting to be pretty damn old.

 

I think I'm higher on the group because I'm a big believer in Joe Smith. This is a guy who, before getting hurt last year, had a 5 year stretch where he averaged over 65 innings a year with a 2.5 ERA. If he's healthy, it's not a huge stretch to think we have a high-end set-up man. Definitely taking the under on the ERA projections.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I think I'm higher on the group because I'm a big believer in Joe Smith. This is a guy who, before getting hurt last year, had a 5 year stretch where he averaged over 65 innings a year with a 2.5 ERA. If he's healthy, it's not a huge stretch to think we have a high-end set-up man. Definitely taking the under on the ERA projections.

 

Not to mention I think that rotation grade is low. There's plenty of teams that'd like to be in our position, save for the depth.

LGBJ29 First Round Pick

LGBJ29

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Looking through the other teams projections and seems a lot of teams even the ones behind Toronto have relievers projected to be better than that 2-6 group. Seems like those guys are more of a dime/dozen.

 

I like Grilli quite a bit but he's getting to be pretty damn old.

 

Grilli was old last year too and dominated

LGBJ29 First Round Pick

LGBJ29

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
How hard is Loup throwing this spring? Man it's hard not to cringe when I hear his name.

 

His velocity is up. I dont have exact numbers but they said it on the broadcast and also remember Zwelling tweeting that as well. Loup has actually had a decent spring, save for his outing against Minnesota. He's gonna make the team along with Howell.

 

Edit: From Zwelling's piece (http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/recovered-stronger-aaron-loup-feels-ready-better-season/)

on march 23rd:

 

And the most promising thing he’s experienced is some serious zip on his fastball. Loup’s been sitting at 93-95 m.p.h. with his heater, which is actually a little harder than the range he sat in when he had his best years from 2012-14.

 

He was sitting 90-91 last year

Brownie19 New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Brownie19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
His velocity is up. I dont have exact numbers but they said it on the broadcast and also remember Zwelling tweeting that as well. Loup has actually had a decent spring, save for his outing against Minnesota. He's gonna make the team along with Howell.

 

Edit: From Zwelling's piece (http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/recovered-stronger-aaron-loup-feels-ready-better-season/)

on march 23rd:

 

He was sitting 90-91 last year

 

That's great news. But F you for sending me to a link with a video of Arash and Wilner!

HERPDERP Vancouver Canadians

HERPDERP

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Some radio personalities have the face for TV.

 

Mike Wilner is not one of them.

 

TholesWeirdEye College Ball

TholesWeirdEye

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Some radio personalities have the face for TV.

 

Mike Wilner is not one of them.

 

http://speakerdata2.s3.amazonaws.com/photo/image/845805/rexmurphy.jpg

LGBJ29 First Round Pick

LGBJ29

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
That's great news. But F you for sending me to a link with a video of Arash and Wilner!

 

Just providing my works cited, it was you who chose to engage in the death trap my dude

Terminator All-Star

Terminator

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

I think they are too low on the rotation by a lot but it's understandable. Yes, our depth sucks but a lot of teams don't even have serviceable #5 SP's, we have a quite capable one. And projection systems aren't ever really going to like our rotation all that much because Estrada is a FIP-beater as is the new post-Pirates version of JA Happ. They are basically saying that Estrada is a #4 or 5 SP in this league when over the past two years his RA-9 has him as a good #2 SP. That's going to make a huge difference in rankings like these. They treat Happ similarly. Just taking a quick peak at the rankings, no way the Angels have a better rotation than us. Same with a lot of those teams. I think I'd put them behind the Giants at #9.

 

I think they are a lot closer to being right on the bullpen. Osuna is elite but we rely on two guys who are a little dicey in Grilli and Biagini. The good thing is I think the lower leverage guys are pretty solid. So we've got a great closer, iffy setup men, and good low leverage guys. Overall that's probably better than #16 but I don't think by a whole lot. Maybe #12 or so?

Bobthe4th Toronto Blue Jays

Bobthe4th

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I think they are too low on the rotation by a lot but it's understandable. Yes, our depth sucks but a lot of teams don't even have serviceable #5 SP's, we have a quite capable one. And projection systems aren't ever really going to like our rotation all that much because Estrada is a FIP-beater as is the new post-Pirates version of JA Happ. They are basically saying that Estrada is a #4 or 5 SP in this league when over the past two years his RA-9 has him as a good #2 SP. That's going to make a huge difference in rankings like these. They treat Happ similarly.

 

I think they are a lot closer to being right on the bullpen. Osuna is elite but we rely on two guys who are a little dicey in Grilli and Biagini. The good thing is I think the lower leverage guys are pretty solid. So we've got a great closer, iffy setup men, and good low leverage guys. Overall that's probably better than #16 but I don't think by a whole lot. Maybe #12 or so?

 

TBF collective projections for bullpens are almost completely pointless. Pretty much any OK reliever can catch lightning in a bottle and have an all star season. Unless you've got more than one of the handful of elite relievers, then the difference between one team and another is impossible to predict.

 

I agree with you that our 1-5 being arguably top 5 in the majors should carry more weight in the overall starters ranking.

Terminator All-Star

Terminator

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
TBF collective projections for bullpens are almost completely pointless. Pretty much any OK reliever can catch lightning in a bottle and have an all star season. Unless you've got more than one of the handful of elite relievers, then the difference between one team and another is impossible to predict.

 

I agree with you that our 1-5 being arguably top 5 in the majors should carry more weight in the overall starters ranking.

 

Yeah I agree. I went to compare our bullpen to the teams ahead of them and I really couldn't even tell much of a difference.

 

Rotation is where they aren't accounting for our FIP-beaters properly. I also think Bolsinger provides more depth than they think. Take away Latos and Lawrence's inning and give them to Bolsinger and that makes a little bit of a difference as well.

Brownie19 New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Brownie19

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I think the depth we have in the pen is going to be a strength. The more quality arms you have the more likely a couple of them will catch lightning in a bottle. Given how volatile bullpens are - I think that's a good approach.
Jonn MVP

Jonn

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Lol

 

Most teams get a hot model as their sideline reporter. We went from Barry Davis to a 300 pound pretentious douchebag.

 

He's actually disgusting.

Stangstag Toronto Blue Jays

Stangstag

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Lol

 

Most teams get a hot model as their sideline reporter. We went from Barry Davis to a 300 pound pretentious douchebag.

 

He's actually disgusting.

 

Hey that's not nice man. That's a ban-worthy comment. You're not allowed to make fun of people here.

z3r0s FCL Blue Jays

z3r0s

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
sure not a flattering photo. Angle makes his head look tiny. Guy could use a little gym time tho, holy f***
Terminator All-Star

Terminator

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Lol

 

Most teams get a hot model as their sideline reporter. We went from Barry Davis to a 300 pound pretentious douchebag.

 

He's actually disgusting.

 

Bring back Barry.

Jonn MVP

Jonn

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Hey that's not nice man. That's a ban-worthy comment. You're not allowed to make fun of people here.

 

Am I at the right places? That's pretty much all this forum does.

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