Around Baseball 2017

[bones10]

how much do the As want for Jed Lowrie? some excellent numbers so far this year... cheap contract.

[L54]

I know...give me a break. 9 to 1 in the 7th and I was feeling pretty confident. Colorado's bullpen blows. Now Go As

 

Colorado's bullpen does not blow.

[jaysguy44]

Suck it Yanks!

[TwistedLogic]

Keon Broxton hit an absolute monster shot earlier tonight. Second longest homer of the season, almost 500 feet. Longest home run ever hit at Busch Stadium.

 

http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2017/06/16/1501872483/1497573706993/asset_1200K.mp4

 

 

Pro tip: If you're ever sharing a mediadownloads.mlb video link, you can just change the number at the end of the URL to 2500K (your link was 1200K) to improve the resolution to the best available.

[G-Snarls]

Suck it Yanks!

 

Ha!!

 

Lost 2 in a row

 

Woot!

[glory]

Jeff Hoffman has a 1.2 WAR in 6 games (5 GS) and 32 innings. Damn.

[G-Snarls]

Jeff Hoffman has a 1.2 WAR in 6 games (5 GS) and 32 innings. Damn.

 

Yeah he's been good

[LGBJ29]

Jeff Hoffman has a 1.2 WAR in 6 games (5 GS) and 32 innings. Damn.

 

Hoffman is likely going to be very good which stings a little. However, Tulo lead us to two amazing postseasons that we would not have experienced with Jose Reyes or Ryan Goins. So as far as trading top prospects go I can live with this one

[metafour]

However, Tulo lead us to two amazing postseasons that we would not have experienced with Jose Reyes or Ryan Goins. So as far as trading top prospects go I can live with this one

 

I disagree. If you make the decision to trade a talent of this upside, you better be getting a player back who is at least in their prime. If Hoffman pans out then Anthopolous will have traded two front-line starters for what amounted to be R.A. Dickey pitching at a #3-5 starter rate and the literal shell of Troy Tulowitzki with a half dozen years left on his massive contract. If prospects are currency, I'm not going to pay $50,000 for a Honda Civic and then pretend like it was a good move because my previous car was dying and unreliable. I also don't like the "well we got deep into the playoffs with Tulowitzki" argument because it implies that there were literally no other trade options available, which seems unlikely. Yes, Tulo was an important upgrade over Reyes, but he was still what, the 4th or 5th most valuable position player in the lineup on those playoff teams? Its not like he was carrying us in the playoffs.

[BTS]

Hoffman is likely going to be very good which stings a little. However, Tulo lead us to two amazing postseasons that we would not have experienced with Jose Reyes or Ryan Goins. So as far as trading top prospects go I can live with this one

 

I don't know how true this is. Tulo was worth a win or so down the stretch in 2015, and 2.5-3 wins last year. He's also been absolutely terrible in both playoff runs. I don't think he was some irreplaceable component of those those two teams, and the production certainly doesn't warrant four years of carrying his albatross contract.

[Orgfiller]

Also, don't forget about Daniel Norris who is still only 24 years old and is at least a league average starter right now.

 

David Price was great for us, don't get me wrong.

[metafour]

I don't know how true this is. Tulo was worth a win or so down the stretch in 2015, and 2.5-3 wins last year. He's also been absolutely terrible in both playoff runs. I don't think he was some irreplaceable component of those those two teams, and the production certainly doesn't warrant four years of carrying his albatross contract.

 

Exactly. It was piss-poor value no matter how you try and slice it. I don't care about dealing top prospects, but you have to add worthwhile pieces if you are going to do that. The Chris Sale and Adam Eaton trades are examples of that. Trading a potential 4-5 win starter for one/two "pretty good" years of Tuklowitzki and then a handful more wherein he's basically Jose Reyes (the guy that facilitated the deal in the first place because you had to get rid of him) is a stupid idea.

[LGBJ29]

I disagree. If you make the decision to trade a talent of this upside, you better be getting a player back who is at least in their prime. If Hoffman pans out then Anthopolous will have traded two front-line starters for what amounted to be R.A. Dickey pitching at a #3-5 starter rate and the literal shell of Troy Tulowitzki with a half dozen years left on his massive contract. If prospects are currency, I'm not going to pay $50,000 for a Honda Civic and then pretend like it was a good move because my previous car was dying and unreliable. I also don't like the "well we got deep into the playoffs with Tulowitzki" argument because it implies that there were literally no other trade options available, which seems unlikely. Yes, Tulo was an important upgrade over Reyes, but he was still what, the 4th or 5th most valuable position player in the lineup on those playoff teams? Its not like he was carrying us in the playoffs.

 

ok its a fluctuating currency though. You can call him $50,000 now but his 2016 numbers left much to be desired. Last year I dont think you could use that same analogy. It was a risk, and minus some bad BABIP luck we could/should have been World Series champions in 2015. No he wasnt our MVP or he didnt carry us by any means in either postseason, but he made provided rock solid D at short, and hit that huge go ahead home run in game 4 vs Texas. Its hard to now say we should have made a hypothetical alternative move they may or may not have been available.

[Brownie19]

Exactly. It was piss-poor value no matter how you try and slice it. I don't care about dealing top prospects, but you have to add worthwhile pieces if you are going to do that. The Chris Sale and Adam Eaton trades are examples of that. Trading a potential 4-5 win starter for one/two "pretty good" years of Tuklowitzki and then a handful more wherein he's basically Jose Reyes (the guy that facilitated the deal in the first place because you had to get rid of him) is a stupid idea.

 

You have to factor in the probability that Hoffman busts when you evaluate this type of thing. For every pitcher who turns like (it appears) Hoffman will, there are 2 or 3 more like Tyler Kolek, Toussaint, Brady Aiken or Mark Appel who are highly regarded, yet end up being complete zeros.

[BTS]

You have to factor in the probability that Hoffman busts when you evaluate this type of thing. For every pitcher who turns like (it appears) Hoffman will, there are 2 or 3 more like Tyler Kolek, Toussaint, Brady Aiken or Mark Appel who are highly regarded, yet end up being complete zeros.

 

That's why you don't empty the farm for old guys locked into 20+M long term contracts. If you trade a bunch of high-end young talent, most will bust, but some won't and you'll lose 6 years of cheap production in exchange for someone who, at best, will have neutral value relative to his contract, and at worst will be a complete anchor.

[LGBJ29]

Exactly. It was piss-poor value no matter how you try and slice it. I don't care about dealing top prospects, but you have to add worthwhile pieces if you are going to do that. The Chris Sale and Adam Eaton trades are examples of that. Trading a potential 4-5 win starter for one/two "pretty good" years of Tuklowitzki and then a handful more wherein he's basically Jose Reyes (the guy that facilitated the deal in the first place because you had to get rid of him) is a stupid idea.

 

Ok this is a terrible comparison. Sale was traded for two top 30 prospects including the top prospect in all of baseball right now. Eaton was traded for two top 40 prospects (#3,#38).

We traded one top 100 prospect (Hoffman at 73). Yeah obviously the return is better when you get younger controllable assets at a good price, but you're not gonna get that giving up Hoffman alone. We didnt have the prospect capital to get guys like you mentioned.

[keggy]

If teams were willing to give up their stars for garbage prospects at the deadline, every team would be doing that. When it comes to going for a potential World Series run you can't have your cake and eat it too. These sorts of trades almost always sacrifice future value for present value. Look at what the Cubs and Indians gave up for Chapman and Andrew Miller.

 

Sure, it doesn't make sense to trade a blue chip prospect when you're barely fighting for the 2nd wildcard spot, but the Blue Jays were the best team in baseball in 2015. Almost every World Series team has to make these sorts of difficult decisions. An added bonus is that the Jays are a financial juggernaut again for the first time since the early 90s.

[metafour]

You have to factor in the probability that Hoffman busts when you evaluate this type of thing. For every pitcher who turns like (it appears) Hoffman will, there are 2 or 3 more like Tyler Kolek, Toussaint, Brady Aiken or Mark Appel who are highly regarded, yet end up being complete zeros.

 

You also have to factor in that Tulowitzki was looking like s*** the entire half season he spent in Colorado before we acquired him, on top of being an aging SS with a terrible injury history and a monstrosity of a contract. I'm well aware what the risk of prospects is; I'm also aware that every former great player who is struggling isn't simply "in a slump", which is why you have to target more sure-fire players like Adam Eaton if you are trading A-grade prospects. Anthopolous seemed to have a raging hard-on for former star players who were already in decline under the pretense that it was all just a "slump". If you remember we were also tracking McCutchen under his "team", you just know that had he stayed he would have done something stupid like traded Vlad Jr. to get McCutchen under the notion that he was "buying low".

 

Again, it was simply poor asset management. We got poor value, period. Tulo barely outproduced his salary in the ~1.5 years prior to this season; and we're on the hook for ~$78 more million counting this year of value that may not even be REPLACEMENT LEVEL. He's at -0.3 WAR so far this season.

[KevinGregg]

That's why you don't empty the farm for old guys locked into 20+M long term contracts. If you trade a bunch of high-end young talent, most will bust, but some won't and you'll lose 6 years of cheap production in exchange for someone who, at best, will have neutral value relative to his contract, and at worst will be a complete anchor.

 

While this is certainly true, 2015 was the most fun I've ever had watching baseball. None of that happens without those reckless trades. I was happy then and I wouldn't trade that for a slightly better farm now. We're in great shape is it is.

[glory]

If teams were willing to give up their stars for garbage prospects at the deadline, every team would be doing that. When it comes to going for a potential World Series run you can't have your cake and eat it too. These sorts of trades almost always sacrifice future value for present value. Look at what the Cubs and Indians gave up for Chapman and Andrew Miller.

 

Sure, it doesn't make sense to trade a blue chip prospect when you're barely fighting for the 2nd wildcard spot, but the Blue Jays were the best team in baseball in 2015. Almost every World Series team has to make these sorts of difficult decisions. An added bonus is that the Jays are a financial juggernaut again for the first time since the early 90s.

 

At the time of the Tulo trade:

 

East

NYY 57 42 .576 --

BAL 50 49 .505 7.0

TBR 51 51 .500 7.5

TOR 50 51 .495 8.0

BOS 44 57 .436 14.0

 

Wild Card

LAA 55 44 .556 --

MIN 52 47 .525 --

BAL 50 49 .505 2.0

TBR 51 51 .500 2.5

TOR 50 51 .495 3.0

 

Yes the Jays had a huge run differential that showed that they were much better than their record showed, but they looked far more likely to get a WC spot at that time than the division.

 

Those two trades (Price/Tulo) were short sighted trades by a GM who did not have to deal with the consequences because he knew he was out the moment the season ended.

[BTS]

While this is certainly true, 2015 was the most fun I've ever had watching baseball. None of that happens without those reckless trades. I was happy then and I wouldn't trade that for a slightly better farm now. We're in great shape is it is.

 

I think it probably happens without the Tulo trade. I don't mind the Price trade so much - getting a legit ace for the stretch and the playoffs is a valid move, and he wasn't tied to an albatross contract. Adding Tulo's $100M contract was just irresponsible.

[LGBJ29]

You also have to factor in that Tulowitzki was looking like s*** the entire half season he spent in Colorado before we acquired him, on top of being an aging SS with a terrible injury history and a monstrosity of a contract. I'm well aware what the risk of prospects is; I'm also aware that every former great player who is struggling isn't simply "in a slump", which is why you have to target more sure-fire players like Adam Eaton if you are trading A-grade prospects. Anthopolous seemed to have a raging hard-on for former star players who were already in decline under the pretense that it was all just a "slump". If you remember we were also tracking McCutchen under his "team", you just know that had he stayed he would have done something stupid like traded Vlad Jr. to get McCutchen under the notion that he was "buying low".

 

Again, it was simply poor asset management. We got poor value, period. Tulo barely outproduced his salary in the ~1.5 years prior to this season; and we're on the hook for ~$78 more million counting this year of value that may not even be REPLACEMENT LEVEL. He's at -0.3 WAR so far this season.

 

Why are you so fired up about this. Nobody has said it was good value. Nobody even has said they liked the trade. I literally said as far as trading top prospects go this was one "I could live with"

[LGBJ29]

I think it probably happens without the Tulo trade. I don't mind the Price trade so much - getting a legit ace for the stretch and the playoffs is a valid move, and he wasn't tied to an albatross contract. Adding Tulo's $100M contract was just irresponsible.

 

While this will never be able to be proven, Im not sure it does. We needed every ounce of talent to win 3 straight against Texas after falling down 0-2. I really dont think we do it with Jose Reyes at SS

[metafour]

If teams were willing to give up their stars for garbage prospects at the deadline, every team would be doing that. When it comes to going for a potential World Series run you can't have your cake and eat it too. These sorts of trades almost always sacrifice future value for present value. Look at what the Cubs and Indians gave up for Chapman and Andrew Miller.

 

Sure, it doesn't make sense to trade a blue chip prospect when you're barely fighting for the 2nd wildcard spot, but the Blue Jays were the best team in baseball in 2015. Almost every World Series team has to make these sorts of difficult decisions. An added bonus is that the Jays are a financial juggernaut again for the first time since the early 90s.

 

The Cubs and Indians traded for star closers and they got that production as expected.

We traded for a star shortstop and instead received a guy that was pretty good for 1.5 seasons and is now a -0.3 WAR player with $78 mill left on his deal. Jose Reyes was even better than what we've gotten out of Tulo in his 2 "good" seasons for us before he blew up.

 

It was a fail trade.

[BTS]

While this will never be able to be proven, Im not sure it does. We needed every ounce of talent to win 3 straight against Texas after falling down 0-2. I really dont think we do it with Jose Reyes at SS

 

It doesn't have to be Reyes though. There were certainly avenues that didn't involve committing $100M to an injury-prone 30-something on the decline. And Tulo wasn't even good in the playoffs.

[LGBJ29]

You also have to factor in that Tulowitzki was looking like s*** the entire half season he spent in Colorado before we acquired him, on top of being an aging SS with a terrible injury history and a monstrosity of a contract. I'm well aware what the risk of prospects is; I'm also aware that every former great player who is struggling isn't simply "in a slump", which is why you have to target more sure-fire players like Adam Eaton if you are trading A-grade prospects. Anthopolous seemed to have a raging hard-on for former star players who were already in decline under the pretense that it was all just a "slump". If you remember we were also tracking McCutchen under his "team", you just know that had he stayed he would have done something stupid like traded Vlad Jr. to get McCutchen under the notion that he was "buying low".

 

Again, it was simply poor asset management. We got poor value, period. Tulo barely outproduced his salary in the ~1.5 years prior to this season; and we're on the hook for ~$78 more million counting this year of value that may not even be REPLACEMENT LEVEL. He's at -0.3 WAR so far this season.

 

Are you just making stuff up at this point? Tulo produced a 5.2 WAR the year before we traded him and in 2015 for Colorado before the trade he was hitting .300 with a .348 OBP and .349 wOBA

[LGBJ29]

It doesn't have to be Reyes though. There were certainly avenues that didn't involve committing $100M to an injury-prone 30-something on the decline. And Tulo wasn't even good in the playoffs.

 

He did hit a massive go ahead home run in game 4 which we may not have come back to win that series without, but I do understand your overall point, I agree it wasn't a good trade. Like I stated above though I've never once said I liked the trade, its just one I said I can live with. It doesnt even touch the stratosphere of the Dickey trade

[metafour]

Are you just making stuff up at this point? Tulo produced a 5.2 WAR the year before we traded him and in 2015 for Colorado before the trade he was hitting .300 with a .348 OBP and .349 wOBA

 

Tulowitzki was a 104 wRC+ hitter in Colorado and was actually a negative defender before we acquired him. He was worth a whopping 0.9 WAR at the time of the trade. What exactly am I making up? The 104 wRC+ was a clear red flag considering that he was a consistent ~130+ wRC+ hitter in previous seasons, and sure enough he has basically been useless at the plate since that trade which is just a continuation of his swift decline in Colorado.

[LGBJ29]

Tulowitzki was a 104 wRC+ hitter in Colorado and was actually a negative defender before we acquired him. He was worth a whopping 0.9 WAR at the time of the trade. What exactly am I making up? The 104 wRC+ was a clear red flag considering that he was a consistent ~130+ wRC+ hitter in previous seasons, and sure enough he has basically been useless at the plate since that trade which is just a continuation of his swift decline in Colorado.

 

Maybe hyperbole is the word I should have used. In 87 games he put up numbers that are a bit less than his career norms but still above league average, I wouldn't equate that to "looking like s***" considering he was able to rebound with his defence and put up 1.4 WAR in 41 games down the stretch

[Boxcar]

Maybe hyperbole is the word I should have used. In 87 games he put up numbers that are a bit less than his career norms but still above league average, I wouldn't equate that to "looking like s***" considering he was able to rebound with his defence and put up 1.4 WAR in 41 games down the stretch

 

I was super excited to get Tulo, he was a big upgrade on Reyes and Hoffman didn't look great at the time after coming back from Tommy John. The trade definitely looks bad in hindsight, but it was far from Anthopoulos' worst. That honor goes to either the Dickey trade, or the Marlins trade. Guy just kept trying to put a bandaid on everything.

 

I can live with the Tulo trade in that I got to see one of my favourite players in a Blue Jays uni even if he's not as good as he used to be. It's also nice having a solid defensive SS for a change.