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Posted
Probably right. Plus he's the type that will age better compared to Chapman as well. With Chapman, there's always a worry what would happen to him if his arm explodes.

 

Probably the same thing that would happen to any pitcher who had their arm explode.

 

Pitchers are all the same. People have been expecting Chris Sale to break for years and

that hasn't happened.

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Posted (edited)
FG depth charts has the Yankees at 85 Wins and Jays at 80. Must be a mistake though because Jays at 80 wins seems way too low.

 

Yankees are an interesting team. Position players are almost all 1.5-2.5 Win players. Pitching staff is very good.

We won 89 games last season. We added Pearce and Morales but subtracted EE, Jose, Saunders and Cecil. Sounds about right

Edited by ChrisS
Posted
Probably right. Plus he's the type that will age better compared to Chapman as well. With Chapman, there's always a worry what would happen to him if his arm explodes.

 

Love to see the logic on this one. For what it's worth, I'd take Chapman's health outlook over Miller's. Both throw hard but Miller relies heavily on his slider.

Posted
The WAR guys will say this is an atrocious sign since he only offers 1.1 WAR and he is by far the best reliever in baseball. My question is this - every team in baseball has analytics guys on the payroll and they all understand WAR. So what is it that these teams know that the heavy analytics fans don't know. There has to be something we're missing - perhaps relievers need a different metric or something. They must know something if they are spending this much on a closer.
Posted
The WAR guys will say this is an atrocious sign since he only offers 1.1 WAR and he is by far the best reliever in baseball. My question is this - every team in baseball has analytics guys on the payroll and they all understand WAR. So what is it that these teams know that the heavy analytics fans don't know. There has to be something we're missing - perhaps relievers need a different metric or something. They must know something if they are spending this much on a closer.

 

Who are you talking about? Chapman? He's been worth almost 3 WAR a year for 4 of the 5 last years.

Posted (edited)
window closing, time for a new 5 year plan? CWS style

 

Hell no. The time to rebuild is after a year or two of being middle of the road and not competing for the playoffs while still having assets that people want.

 

We're coming off 2 straight playoff appearances, have potentially a top 5 rotation, and a mix of controllable talented youngsters (Osuna, Sanchez, Stroman, Travis) and aging (but still talented) stars (JD, Tulo, Martin).

 

There is no reason why we should sacrifice the next 2 or 3 years now - we could make the playoffs this year with a bit of luck, and still be able to trade people like Tulo and Donaldson next year (EDIT - if we wanted to) when some of our prospects will be more ready to take their places.

Edited by Bobthe4th
Old-Timey Member
Posted
The WAR guys will say this is an atrocious sign since he only offers 1.1 WAR and he is by far the best reliever in baseball. My question is this - every team in baseball has analytics guys on the payroll and they all understand WAR. So what is it that these teams know that the heavy analytics fans don't know. There has to be something we're missing - perhaps relievers need a different metric or something. They must know something if they are spending this much on a closer.

 

FO's WAR >>>> FanGraphs/BP/BR WAR

 

It is a framework. They add leverage to it.

Posted
Great signing by the yanks. He's 28, so in 1-2 years when they are ready to win the division again or at least fight for it with Boston, he will still be just 30.
Posted
Wade Davis for Soler look more great now

 

Still don't think they got enough. I think if the Royals waited until the deadline they might have got more desperate demand for his services. The only reason I think the Royals did this now is they are worried he won't stay healthy.

 

Just not a Soler fan. He's got a lot to prove. It also annoys me that he's another guy bought with just money in the International market being the centre piece of a trade.

 

Also being an extra Outfielder who sucks defensively and wouldn't have impacted the Cubs next year. Royals needed to get another decent prospect atleast for me. Will see. Not that I care for the Royals.

Community Moderator
Posted
The WAR guys will say this is an atrocious sign since he only offers 1.1 WAR and he is by far the best reliever in baseball. My question is this - every team in baseball has analytics guys on the payroll and they all understand WAR. So what is it that these teams know that the heavy analytics fans don't know. There has to be something we're missing - perhaps relievers need a different metric or something. They must know something if they are spending this much on a closer.

 

Do you even read this forum?

Posted

Interesting if anyone saw Shaprio's interview on Tim and Sid yesterday, but they asked him a few good questions. He said the reliever market used to be a loophole that is no longer there, and the prices reflect their worth now.

 

So anyone looking at Chapman's FG war total and saying well this is good for the Jays!, don't realaize Chapman is worth much more.

Posted
The WAR guys will say this is an atrocious sign since he only offers 1.1 WAR and he is by far the best reliever in baseball. My question is this - every team in baseball has analytics guys on the payroll and they all understand WAR. So what is it that these teams know that the heavy analytics fans don't know. There has to be something we're missing - perhaps relievers need a different metric or something. They must know something if they are spending this much on a closer.

 

Wow - you got the stats and the statement wrong in the same post. New WPOTY candidate.

Posted
I can't believe you guys are still underrating the value of a good bullpen. Did none of you watch the Giants blow up in the playoffs?

 

They are important for sure, but you need to get to the playoffs first though.

 

The Yanks had a lights out bullpen to start last year as well and they ended up trading most of it when they were out of it.

Posted
They are important for sure, but you need to get to the playoffs first though.

 

The Yanks had a lights out bullpen to start last year as well.

 

The Yankees are more than capable of addressing their offensive woes for the next 5 years. This is a reasonable deal for them.

Posted
The WAR guys will say this is an atrocious sign since he only offers 1.1 WAR and he is by far the best reliever in baseball. My question is this - every team in baseball has analytics guys on the payroll and they all understand WAR. So what is it that these teams know that the heavy analytics fans don't know. There has to be something we're missing - perhaps relievers need a different metric or something. They must know something if they are spending this much on a closer.

 

Fangraphs says he is worth ~2.5 WAR a year. Doesn't his contract basically reflect that number?

Community Moderator
Posted
They are important for sure, but you need to get to the playoffs first though.

 

The Yanks had a lights out bullpen to start last year as well and they ended up trading most of it when they were out of it.

 

Yankees finished 84-78. They probably finish like 75-87 without Betances-Chapman-Miller. You weren't necessarily doing this, but I hate when people use them missing the playoffs as an argument against the effectiveness of a stacked bullpen.

Posted
I can't believe you guys are still underrating the value of a good bullpen. Did none of you watch the Giants blow up in the playoffs?

 

What is interesting though, is that the Jays bullpen was absolutely fine. Jays lost all their games in the early innings when they didn't hit mediocre starters.

 

In my opinion the reliever thing is over-rated. There is still more than one way to skin a cat. Improve the early inning offense and Jays are in the world series

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