Trade for Andrew McCutchen (NJH #7)

[Dr. Dinger]

RJF going full troll.

[Brownie19]

RJF going full troll.

 

It's his new gig.

[reedjohnsonfan]

RJF going full troll.

 

My question is legitimate, can you please answer it? I'm actually curious.

[Brownie19]

RJF going full troll.

 

If only it was 2007 (when the world was much less politically correct) - I could fify. These days - I'll just keep my yap shut.

[Dr. Dinger]

My question is legitimate, can you please answer it? I'm actually curious.

 

Sorry, no. I don't care.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Sorry, no. I don't care.

 

I thought we could have a nice conversation about how you came up with some of your numbers, but I guess you're not entirely sure about some things.

 

It's fine.

[Dick_Pole]

*Came to this thread in interest, noticing 5 pages added in the last 24 hours so there must be some relevant rumour or something. Left in disgust after page three, discovering this is just going to be another argument about Travis Snider*

[Dr. Dinger]

*Came to this thread in interest, noticing 5 pages added in the last 24 hours so there must be some relevant rumour or something. Left in disgust after page three, discovering this is just going to be another argument about Travis Snider*

 

Actually you'd be surprised.

[GD]

I thought we could have a nice conversation about how you came up with some of your numbers, but I guess you're not entirely sure about some things.

 

It's fine.

 

Did you take and pass econ in high school?

[reedjohnsonfan]

Did you take and pass econ in high school?

 

It was a basic question that I was asking if that's what you meant, I agree. That's why I found it surprising he didn't want to give the 1 sentence answer it would require. Too bad.

[Boxcar]

I know what inflation is, but my question is:

 

how much do you think 1 WAR will cost in 2020?

how much do you think 1 WAR (projected) in 2020 costs today?

 

Those are two separate values. Which one is he estimating to be 10,500,000?

 

What in the f***?

 

I read this 4 times, can someone explain this to me?

[BTS]

What in the f***?

 

I read this 4 times, can someone explain this to me?

 

He's making the point that we're estimating that teams will be willing to pay $10.5M per 2020 win in 2019, but might not be willing to invest $10.5M per 2020 win in 2017. Given that everyone but RJF seems to understand that these discussions are based on rough models that represent our best guesses at how much value the team places on a win, and thus have very big error bars, it's not an interesting point to make. Yet another example of RJF trying to sound smart while actually coming across as an idiot and adding nothing relevant to the conversation. He'll complete the cycle next time he whines about the level of discourse on the forum while adding nothing but s*** posts himself.

[Dick_Pole]

Oh for f***'s sake...

 

What this guy is asking is similar to the time value of money question, if you've taken any finance/economic courses.

 

For instance, $10,000 in 2020 is equivalent to $6,830 in today's dollars, assuming a 10% discount rate over 4 years. The calculation is $10,000/(1.10^4) where 1.10 is 1+the interest rate. You would rather take $7,000 today than $10,000 in 2020 because the assumption is you can put it in the bank and earn 10% interest a year (maybe in 1980, not today) and come out with $10,250. This is different from inflation, though the two topics are strongly related when you're making investment decisions.

 

Now I don't know if it makes any sense to apply the time value of money to WAR calculations. Measuring the value of a World Series win in 2017 versus one in 2020 to the franchise today is not as easy of an exercise as putting your money in the bank at a "risk free" rate.

[Dick_Pole]

He's making the point that we're estimating that teams will be willing to pay $10.5M per 2020 win in 2019, but might not be willing to invest $10.5M per 2020 win in 2017. Given that everyone but RJF seems to understand that these discussions are based on rough models that represent our best guesses at how much value the team places on a win, and thus have very big error bars, it's not an interesting point to make. Yet another example of RJF trying to sound smart while actually coming across as an idiot and adding nothing relevant to the conversation. He'll complete the cycle next time he whines about the level of discourse on the forum while adding nothing but s*** posts himself.

 

Yes, this question did really come off as the snide jackass in university who likes to show off how smart he is by asking the professor an "intelligent" question. Meanwhile everyone is just annoyed by the interruption, including the lecturer.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Oh for f***'s sake...

 

What this guy is asking is similar to the time value of money question, if you've taken any finance/economic courses.

 

For instance, $10,000 in 2020 is equivalent to $6,830 in today's dollars, assuming a 10% discount rate over 4 years. The calculation is $10,000/(1.10^4) where 1.10 is 1+the interest rate. You would rather take $7,000 today than $10,000 in 2020 because the assumption is you can put it in the bank and earn 10% interest a year (maybe in 1980, not today) and come out with $10,250. This is different from inflation, though the two topics are strongly related when you're making investment decisions.

 

Now I don't know if it makes any sense to apply the time value of money to WAR calculations. Measuring the value of a World Series win in 2017 versus one in 2020 to the franchise today is not as easy of an exercise as putting your money in the bank at a "risk free" rate.

 

Yeah I don't know. It was a pretty basic question.

 

Dr_Dinger posted some number evaluating contract surplus, so I asked (in a nutshell) where he got that number from and if it takes discounting into account- it was a legitimate question and not intended to come across in poor taste. Obviously there's lots of problems evaluating contract value, etc, but he was attempting to value McCutchen vs Quintana so I figured I'd ask about his method.

 

It's a shame people seemed to have trouble understanding that. Oh well.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Yes, this question did really come off as the snide jackass in university who likes to show off how smart he is by asking the professor an "intelligent" question. Meanwhile everyone is just annoyed by the interruption, including the lecturer.

 

Didn't intend that, apologies if that was the case.

[reedjohnsonfan]

He's making the point that we're estimating that teams will be willing to pay $10.5M per 2020 win in 2019, but might not be willing to invest $10.5M per 2020 win in 2017. Given that everyone but RJF seems to understand that these discussions are based on rough models that represent our best guesses at how much value the team places on a win, and thus have very big error bars, it's not an interesting point to make. Yet another example of RJF trying to sound smart while actually coming across as an idiot and adding nothing relevant to the conversation. He'll complete the cycle next time he whines about the level of discourse on the forum while adding nothing but s*** posts himself.

 

 

Wow you just don't stop do you?

 

You guys are attempting to value players. Obviously what a player provides in 5 years isn't as valuable as what he provides next year. I basically asked if his estimates took that into account... it's not trying to sound smart, it's a pretty straightforward question I had about his table of values.

[BTS]

Wow you just don't stop do you?

 

You guys are attempting to value players. Obviously what a player provides in 5 years isn't as valuable as what he provides next year. I basically asked if his estimates took that into account... it's not trying to sound smart, it's a pretty straightforward question I had about his table of values.

 

You bring this type of thing up often when people throw guesses on the long-term value of a contract. I think you understand that there's no way of knowing how individual teams will account for their current spot on the win curve, or how they'll value 2020 wins relative to 2017 wins. Everyone else in the conversation understands that it's all back of napkin math: estimates with known unknowns that facilitate conversation. You pop in from time to time and snarkily point out what everyone knows: that this is all rough math for discussion purposes. You're very much the annoying pedant in a lecture that won't shut the f*** up about minutiae.

[crmr]

You bring this type of thing up often when people throw guesses on the long-term value of a contract. I think you understand that there's no way of knowing how individual teams will account for their current spot on the win curve, or how they'll value 2020 wins relative to 2017 wins. Everyone else in the conversation understands that it's all back of napkin math: estimates with known unknowns that facilitate conversation. You pop in from time to time and snarkily point out what everyone knows: that this is all rough math for discussion purposes. You're very much the annoying pedant in a lecture that won't shut the f*** up about minutiae.

 

To be fair some of those factors are probably the most important piece of a team's valuation. I actually liked how Dinger adjusted McCutchen's war to see how that affected the value. You could also, for example, reduce the $/war value (effectively discounting future years value) to see if a lot of Quintana's surplus comes in future years, it would be a simple adjustment to his very nice table.

 

In our past exchange we touched on it, but sometimes taking these values as gospel rather than recognizing a huge uncertainty plagues the forum.

 

Regarding how they see their spot in the win curve, it seems most team care about that a lot. That particular point is pertinent this offseason on a Blue Jays forum, as they seem to be not doing it at all...

 

I do agree, despite almost always defending RJF that his targeted question approach was the wrong one!

 

Anyway, on net I think this thread has been a good one, as long as you delete page 3!

[Dr. Dinger]

Ok which one of you asked this in the BP Chat?

 

---

 

PompeyCanuck (Ottawa): Do you think that the White Sox, Blue Jays, & Pirates could find a 3 team deal that would send McCutcheon to the Jays, Quintana to the Pirates, and prospects to the White Sox? (I ask as I think the Jays want McCutcheon, but don't really have what the Pirates would want in return)

 

Bryan Grosnick: So, I think that Quintana is obviously the highest-value guy in the deal right now ... which is bananas to think about from a start-of-2016 point of view. So the Pirates toss a guy to the Sox such as ... Taillon, maybe? The Jays would certainly have to send Reid-Foley as well as either Alford and/or Guerrero to the White Sox ... so it probably comes down to who the Sox' scouts like, and whether or not they'd want someone who is closer to the bigs or further away.

 

If I'm the Sox, I go for a premium prospect in the mold of a Giolito or Moncada ... a true Top 10 guy ... if I'm dealing Quintana. I don't play around with quantity over quality.

[Sammy225]

Ok which one of you asked this in the BP Chat?

 

---

 

PompeyCanuck (Ottawa): Do you think that the White Sox, Blue Jays, & Pirates could find a 3 team deal that would send McCutcheon to the Jays, Quintana to the Pirates, and prospects to the White Sox? (I ask as I think the Jays want McCutcheon, but don't really have what the Pirates would want in return)

 

Bryan Grosnick: So, I think that Quintana is obviously the highest-value guy in the deal right now ... which is bananas to think about from a start-of-2016 point of view. So the Pirates toss a guy to the Sox such as ... Taillon, maybe? The Jays would certainly have to send Reid-Foley as well as either Alford and/or Guerrero to the White Sox ... so it probably comes down to who the Sox' scouts like, and whether or not they'd want someone who is closer to the bigs or further away.

 

If I'm the Sox, I go for a premium prospect in the mold of a Giolito or Moncada ... a true Top 10 guy ... if I'm dealing Quintana. I don't play around with quantity over quality.

 

From Ottawa obviously it is BTS.

[reedjohnsonfan]

You bring this type of thing up often when people throw guesses on the long-term value of a contract. I think you understand that there's no way of knowing how individual teams will account for their current spot on the win curve, or how they'll value 2020 wins relative to 2017 wins. Everyone else in the conversation understands that it's all back of napkin math: estimates with known unknowns that facilitate conversation. You pop in from time to time and snarkily point out what everyone knows: that this is all rough math for discussion purposes. You're very much the annoying pedant in a lecture that won't shut the f*** up about minutiae.

 

Wow you've wasted a lot of time trying to tell me off.

 

Anyways I disagree. I asked a basic question... if he didn't take discounting into account it's fine, I was legitimately curious FFS.

 

If you were a little more accepting about different points of view and different interests, the forum might actually grow and attract new members. I'm interested in how some people come up with their ideas, so I ask (and sometimes play devil's advocate). I often laugh in your face because in general I think you're clueless, but normally I'm cordial to (most, not all) other posters.

 

Anyways that's my opinion. Maybe you should put me on ignore!

[Boxcar]

He's making the point that we're estimating that teams will be willing to pay $10.5M per 2020 win in 2019, but might not be willing to invest $10.5M per 2020 win in 2017. Given that everyone but RJF seems to understand that these discussions are based on rough models that represent our best guesses at how much value the team places on a win, and thus have very big error bars, it's not an interesting point to make. Yet another example of RJF trying to sound smart while actually coming across as an idiot and adding nothing relevant to the conversation. He'll complete the cycle next time he whines about the level of discourse on the forum while adding nothing but s*** posts himself.

 

Ok, thanks. I was just confused because I had no idea why that was even brought up.

[Boxcar]

He's making the point that we're estimating that teams will be willing to pay $10.5M per 2020 win in 2019, but might not be willing to invest $10.5M per 2020 win in 2017. Given that everyone but RJF seems to understand that these discussions are based on rough models that represent our best guesses at how much value the team places on a win, and thus have very big error bars, it's not an interesting point to make. Yet another example of RJF trying to sound smart while actually coming across as an idiot and adding nothing relevant to the conversation. He'll complete the cycle next time he whines about the level of discourse on the forum while adding nothing but s*** posts himself.

 

Wow you've wasted a lot of time trying to tell me off.

 

Anyways I disagree. I asked a basic question... if he didn't take discounting into account it's fine, I was legitimately curious FFS.

 

If you were a little more accepting about different points of view and different interests, the forum might actually grow and attract new members. I'm interested in how some people come up with their ideas, so I ask (and sometimes play devil's advocate). I often laugh in your face because in general I think you're clueless, but normally I'm cordial to (most, not all) other posters.

 

Anyways that's my opinion. Maybe you should put me on ignore!

 

lewl

[BTS]

From Ottawa obviously it is BTS.

 

Nope. Not a Pompey kind of guy.

[snowmagician19]

All over the Internet I see sources that Jays are interested in Andy Mc but I do not see any source that says Jays is actually actively going after Andy Mc

 

The asking price for Andy Mc will be sky high.

 

No I do not want Jays to make Thor trade Version 2

 

Just because there is an expensive skilled player that does not mean that team is obligated to trade him to Jays or Jays must acquire that guy

 

 

GM Neal Huntington recently said it was likely #Pirates would keep McCutchen. But #BlueJays are among several clubs with interest.

[jays4life19]

Read the first few lines and was trying to figure out who the f*** is Andy Mc

[TBJ12]

Read the first few lines and was trying to figure out who the f*** is Andy Mc

 

Really? Seems pretty obvious to me.

[GD]

Read the first few lines and was trying to figure out who the f*** is Andy Mc

 

took me a second until i looked up and saw the thread URL

[SnowyEvening19]

Andrew McCutch

 

2014 OPS - .952

2015 OPS - .889

2016 OPS - .776

2017 OPS - .670

 

Well Pirates might give McCutchen to Blue Jays away for free at the moment and then also offer a couple of top prospects in return for Blue Jays agreeing to take over McCutchen.

 

I will not be opposed to see Blue Jays acquiring McCutchen if Pirates agree to the following

 

- Jays will receive one prospect from the top 5 prospects of Pirates organization

- Jays will receive one more prospect from the top 10 prospects of Pirates organization

 

( Kinda like Liriano trade ) Will Liriano be happy to see his old teammate?