Brett Cecil signs with Cardinals

[jaysblue]

With the way the market looks to be going for elite relievers, if you're Francisco Liriano would you prefer to be a starter or a late-inning reliever in 2017? If Liriano has a mediocre season as a starter, he likely only gets a 1-2 year deal as a FA. If he pitches lights out of the BP, he could be in line for a better pay cheque. Especially if the Blue Jays utilize him like Cleveland did with Andrew Miller and using him multiple innings if need be or bringing him in tight spots early in a game etc. The idea isn't too far fetched.

[Spanky99]

Michael Dunn is interesting. Always has had solid K rates, though he can be wild at times. Marc Rzepczynski is a FA as well and could be an interesting target.

 

Brian Matusz could be a good buy low. Same with Johny Venters. I'd roll the dice on either of those two.

 

If the Birds don't sign a guy like Logan or Blevins... I'd rather stay in house with Girodo or Dermody. I believe our FO is thinking that way with the recent signings of Campos and Leone for Buffalo. As Barnes and one of Girodo/Dermody get the call. Spend the money on positional FA's.

[Spanky99]

With the way the market looks to be going for elite relievers, if you're Francisco Liriano would you prefer to be a starter or a late-inning reliever in 2017? If Liriano has a mediocre season as a starter, he likely only gets a 1-2 year deal as a FA. If he pitches lights out of the BP, he could be in line for a better pay cheque. Especially if the Blue Jays utilize him like Cleveland did with Andrew Miller and using him multiple innings if need be or bringing him in tight spots early in a game etc. The idea isn't too far fetched.

 

It's moot... he's here as a starter, mate. We can get an SP/RP for that role on the market.

[jaysblue]

If the Birds don't sign a guy like Logan or Blevins... I'd rather stay in house with Girodo or Dermody. I believe our FO is thinking that way with the recent signings of Campos and Leone for Buffalo. As Barnes and one of Girodo/Dermody get the call. Spend the money on positional FA's.

 

Wouldn't shock me if Logan demands 4 years as well after this Cecil deal. There is no harm in rolling the dice with any of those arms above especially if they only require a cheap 1-year contract. Could likely have Matusz or Venters on a minor league contract anyways.

[Spanky99]

Wouldn't shock me if Logan demands 4 years as well after this Cecil deal. There is no harm in rolling the dice with any of those arms above especially if they only require a cheap 1-year contract. Could likely have Matusz or Venters on a minor league contract anyways.

 

In that case, I'm all for it.

[jaysblue]

It's moot... he's here as a starter, mate. We can get an SP/RP for that role on the market.

 

I prefer him as a starter obviously though if you're Liriano and you could pitch at an elite level out of the BP, from a financial standpoint it might be enticing. Lets say he pitches 70-80 innings with a low 2 ERA, 25-30 holds & 100 K's this season, would that net him more money & a longer contract possibly? Obviously if he fails as a reliever, he screws himself. Even as a mediocre starter who pitches 180 innings with an ERA around 4, he should still get 1/10 easily.

[CJ-Freeway]

You maybe read these posts which provoked a debate on whether Cecil was worth 3/20 or not:

 

Oh ok most probably lol

[fatcowxlive]

I was sad until I saw the contract. Love ya Cecil but idk how I feel about 4 years for a middle reliever

[jays4life19]

I was sad until I saw the contract. Love ya Cecil but idk how I feel about 4 years for a middle reliever

 

lol.

[King]

I was sad until I saw the contract. Love ya Cecil but idk how I feel about 4 years for a middle reliever

middle reliever

[BTS]

dammit fatcow

[Spanky99]

I prefer him as a starter obviously though if you're Liriano and you could pitch at an elite level out of the BP, from a financial standpoint it might be enticing. Lets say he pitches 70-80 innings with a low 2 ERA, 25-30 holds & 100 K's this season, would that net him more money & a longer contract possibly? Obviously if he fails as a reliever, he screws himself. Even as a mediocre starter who pitches 180 innings with an ERA around 4, he should still get 1/10 easily.

 

Oh, I know what you're saying, bruh... and I agree about these decent/fringe starters with at least 2 plus pitches, can carve out some decent money in that regard, I mean, I bet their agents are aware, lol.

[Spanky99]

I was sad until I saw the contract. Love ya Cecil but idk how I feel about 4 years for a middle reliever

 

You're going in THE thread.

[Spanky99]

Oh ok most probably lol

 

The Jays offered Cecil 3 years, he obviously took the pay-day, and rightfully so.

[Maico450]

in 2016, there were a lot of games that Cecil stunk the place up.

Later in the season, he started to get some LH batters out, and eventually, most batters.

I am glad that the Jays did not offer him this contract.

[Spanky99]

There’s Nothing Too Weird About Brett Cecil’s New Contract

by Jeff Sullivan - November 19, 2016

 

The Cardinals had a few problems last season, and among them was unreliable relief pitching. As a means toward addressing that, they’ve given free-agent lefty Brett Cecil a four-year contract, worth $30.5 million. It also has a full no-trade clause! Very clearly, Cecil didn’t come cheap. A number of teams expressed a willingness to guarantee Cecil three years, so the Cardinals stepped up and went one extra.

 

It wouldn’t be hard to spin this in a negative way. Relievers feel like they’re unpredictable, right? So investing in them long-term might be a fool’s errand. And, last year’s average reliever had a 3.93 ERA. Cecil had a 3.93 ERA. He also finished with the eighth-lowest WPA among relievers, meaning he was even less valuable than his regular statistics. On top of that stuff, Cecil missed a month and a half with a lat injury. He didn’t have a banner first half.

 

Yet, he did have a much better second half. The healthy Cecil was dominant. Here’s his last pitch of the regular season:

 

 

That’s just in there for a pretty visual. Cecil finished the year effective, and he was effective in seasons previous. There’s been a certain response to this contract:

 

Follow

Jeff Passan ✔ @JeffPassan

Already have heard from multiple executives and agents who think Brett Cecil's four-year, $30.5M deal with St. Louis is a market changer.

1:45 PM - 19 Nov 2016

121 121 Retweets 102 102 likes

 

But I just don’t agree with that. I don’t think this is the least bit strange or surprising. Cecil got four years and $30.5 million with a full no-trade. Last winter, the Orioles gave Darren O’Day four years and $31 million, with a partial no-trade. They’re very similar contracts, given to a pair of non-closers, and in this table, check out their numbers over the three seasons before signing:

 

Three Seasons Before Signing Contracts

Pitcher Ages ERA- FIP- xFIP- Average K-BB% BABIP

Darren O’Day 30 – 32 44 77 84 68 21% 0.247

Brett Cecil 27 – 29 72 66 64 67 24% 0.321

 

O’Day has the edge in hit and run suppression. Cecil has the edge in peripherals, age, and velocity. While O’Day might’ve been the tougher pitcher to square up, Cecil has made it hard to just put the bat on the ball, and he also has the advantage of a few years of youth. I don’t see how Cecil’s contract, then, is a market-changer. Was O’Day’s contract a market-changer? If so, this one just falls right in line. It might come as a little startling to see a non-closer get four years guaranteed, but Cecil didn’t start this, and there was already emphasis being put on finding better non-closers before. This seems like it’s normal. Brett Cecil’s contract feels normal.

 

Now, it’s worth noting, perhaps, that O’Day wasn’t great in the first year of his four-year deal. Maybe that means all of this is unwise. But in reality, it’s not that relief pitchers are all that unpredictable. It’s that they just have smaller samples of playing time, and the reduced samples make them unpredictable. They still project like anyone else. And Cecil projects to be fine, and the Cardinals bullpen projects to be good. They can check that priority off the list.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/theres-nothing-too-weird-about-brett-cecils-new-contract/

 

Yup... Cecil suxxxx

[Krylian]

Part of me hopes he gets fat again.

[dineke]

the best fans in baseball will appreciate him

[Pendleton]

Tough to see Cecil leave as he's been a key contributor and we could still really use him. That being said, I can understand the hesitancy to offer a fourth year.

 

Here's hoping that we are able to add an adequate replacement like Logan without having to overpay.

 

Kudos to Cecil for his many years of great service and best of luck in St. Louis!

[GD]

I was sad until I saw the contract. Love ya Cecil but idk how I feel about 4 years for a middle reliever

 

so much dumn

[jays_fever]

It's a lot of money but probably worth it when Janseen would cost 2x as much.

[RealAccountant]

Shatkins is doing the right thing. They did their analysis, put a value on Cecil and made an offer. That offer was 3 years likely around 20 Mil. Same with EE, they are doing their valuations, taking risks in to account.

 

My confidence in this regime continues to grow every day. Even though I question how they valued Morales at 3/33 the kind of dillegence these guys give to each decision, makes me think that this is the team to lead us to promised land.

[Pendleton]

I was sad until I saw the contract. Love ya Cecil but idk how I feel about 4 years for a middle reliever

 

This would be a horrible contract for a middle reliever. It's fairly obvious that the teams that made a push for Cecil were planning to use him as a high leverage guy, and rightfully so.

[FrozenRopes]

Overweighted

[Spanky99]

in 2016, there were a lot of games that Cecil stunk the place up.

Later in the season, he started to get some LH batters out, and eventually, most batters.

I am glad that the Jays did not offer him this contract.

 

I'd assume this is a clutch pitcher, issue?

[Governator]

Damn, sad to see him go but it's good for him to cash in.

[Spanky99]

Haha, take him and go

 

Overweighted

 

You haven't an inkling of knowledge of how good he is? Why do you think one of the best run Org's in baseball signed him to that 4 year deal?

 

f*** man, Jays fan's get spoiled and haven't a clue!

[RealAccountant]

Cardinals should have been suspended from baseball. Entire organization is a cheat, instead that one poor scouting director took the brunt of the punishment. Top down one of the biggest immoral sports organization

[FrozenRopes]

You haven't an inkling of knowledge of how good he is? Why do you think one of the best run Org's in baseball signed him to that 4 year deal?

 

f*** man, Jays fan's get spoiled and haven't a clue!

 

Best run org with a shite bullpen who overpaid. He is replaceable and not worth that salary. You should get a clue.

[FrozenRopes]

Cardinals should have been suspended from baseball. Entire organization is a cheat, instead that one poor scouting director took the brunt of the punishment. Top down one of the biggest immoral sports organization

 

Sssshhhh, you will scare spanks away with facts.