Blue Jays 2017 Starting Rotation Discussion

[Brownie19]

Are we really selling high? This is the new Happ and I don't think he's going to regress. Nobody will pay for wins if that's what you expect, especially not the Dodgers.

 

There are always outfielders available for reasonable prices on the trade market and we have other assets to use. Creating a hole that is difficult to fill in order to address a weakness that is easy to fix is a stupid move for a contending team.

 

Look at last year's offseason for a frame of reference. Decent pitchers like Happ (Miller and Leake) cost an arm and a leg while impact outfielders (Trumbo, Dickerson, Fowler) are readily available. It's the same every year.

 

I'd disagree for the following reasons:

 

1. You're cherry picking. Trumbo and Fowler worked out great, but there's a list of OFers who didn't provide value (Austin Jackson, Parra, Span, Aoki)

2. Dickerson isn't an impact outfielder. He's f***ing s***.

3. I can gather a list of discount pitchers who provided great returns last year (Colon, Hill, Lewis, Estrada, Happ) - just like you can point to a couple of OFers who had great years.

4. Decent OFers like Justin Upton, Span, Rasmus and Parra all cost quite a bit (and subsequently, all of them sucked penis).

 

The reality is there are SPing and OF bargins available every year and there are SPers and OFers who get overpaid every year. The key is identifying them. This team only has 1 starting OFer right now (who can't hit) and there are no in-house replacements in sight (unless you still believe in Pompey). Adding a young OFer with years of control would be a massive plus for this contending team....Google Cubs, Chicago and see how they built a sustainable winner.

 

I'd also argue the Blue Jays didn't get "the new Happ". He's remarkably similar to the "old" Happ actually. Only in July and August last year did Happ resemble the "new Happ" that we saw in Pittsburgh the year before. Unless the Jays have identified what he has to do to be that guy consistently (and seeing how he pitching in September & October - there's nothing to suggest they did) - this will be the peak of his value.

[Pendleton]

Are we really selling high? This is the new Happ and I don't think he's going to regress. Nobody will pay for wins if that's what you expect, especially not the Dodgers.

 

There are always outfielders available for reasonable prices on the trade market and we have other assets to use. Creating a hole that is difficult to fill in order to address a weakness that is easy to fix is a stupid move for a contending team.

 

Look at last year's offseason for a frame of reference. Decent pitchers like Happ (Miller and Leake) cost an arm and a leg while impact outfielders (Trumbo, Dickerson, Fowler) are readily available. It's the same every year.

 

Selling high in terms of trade value. Happ's performance may continue to shine, but he has two years remaining on this affordable deal, coming off this career season his trade value may never be greater.

[KingKat]

Why should the Jays care whether Happ is at peak trade value? The Jays aren't a rebuilding team. Trying to determine the peak moment to cash in a veteran player should not be a priority. Starting the season with as set rotation 1-5 is awesome. Why can't we just embrace it? If things go bad then start talking about breaking it up. His value at the deadline might not be quite as high as it is now but that drop in value doesn't justify messing with the opening day roster.

[Brownie19]

KK - for me, it's all about maximizing value. It's hard to embrace our great rotation when we have Upton and Zeke penciled in our starting OF. It looks plausible to pair Upton with a FA platoon partner, but that leaves Zeke in RF and that makes me want to vomit. Curious to see what Shatkins comes up with. Moving Happ while the value is maxed out is something to consider. Edited November 16, 2016 by Brownie19

[Pendleton]

Why should the Jays care whether Happ is at peak trade value? The Jays aren't a rebuilding team. Trying to determine the peak moment to cash in a veteran player should not be a priority. Starting the season with as set rotation 1-5 is awesome. Why can't we just embrace it? If things go bad then start talking about breaking it up. His value at the deadline might not be quite as high as it is now but that drop in value doesn't justify messing with the opening day roster.

 

It's always worth exploring what you could get in return for an asset at peak value. I'm also happy with the rotation as is.

[UWHabs]

KK - for me, it's all about maximizing value. It's hard to embrace our great rotation when we have Upton and Zeke penciled in our starting OF. It looks plausible to pair Upton with a FA platoon partner, but that leaves Zeke in RF and that makes me want to vomit. Curious to see what Shatkins comes up with. Moving Happ while the value is maxed out is something to consider.

 

Yeah, I love having a set rotation, but a few points stick out:

-The extra rotation depth matters less when you get to the playoffs

-FA suck and are expensive

 

You can't always budget when guys will be healthy, and I will admit our rotation depth after the top 5 is suspect at best, but if you can turn Happ or Estrada into a legit bat because there's nothing out there for FA pitching, then it's definitely the sort of deal that you have to seriously look into. I'm not trading them to trade them, but if you can cash in while their value is high, knowing that the team's 5th starter matters less than their starting RF, I would definitely be loosely shopping either around.

[Captain Adama]

Yeah, I love having a set rotation, but a few points stick out:

-The extra rotation depth matters less when you get to the playoffs

-FA suck and are expensive

 

You can't always budget when guys will be healthy, and I will admit our rotation depth after the top 5 is suspect at best, but if you can turn Happ or Estrada into a legit bat because there's nothing out there for FA pitching, then it's definitely the sort of deal that you have to seriously look into. I'm not trading them to trade them, but if you can cash in while their value is high, knowing that the team's 5th starter matters less than their starting RF, I would definitely be loosely shopping either around.

 

And a thinner rotation matters even less if you don't make the playoffs.

[Jimcanuck]

Happ will still have plenty of value at the deadline if moving him makes sense at the time

[Zaun of the Dead]

Sanchez

Happ

Stroman

Estrada

Goins

[Governator]

bump

[Brownie19]

I suspect this thread died because there's very little to discuss. We have 5 solid starters. That's it. Do we want to discuss our #6-10 starters?

[Governator]

I suspect this thread died because there's very little to discuss. We have 5 solid starters. That's it. Do we want to discuss our #6-10 starters?

 

 

I don't disagree.

[BTS]

Jays 2017 rotation:

 

Sanchez

Stroman

Happ

Estrada

Liriano

 

Order TBD.

 

/thread

[fatcowxlive]

Jays 2017 rotation:

 

Sanchez

Stroman

Happ

Estrada

Liriano

 

Order TBD.

 

/thread

 

Who is our #6, #7 and other depth options? Bolsinger?

[BTS]

Who is our #6, #7 and other depth options? Bolsinger?

 

Bolsinger

Oberholtzer

Biagini

 

Probably in that order.

[crmr]

Who is our #6, #7 and other depth options? Bolsinger?

 

Are there any other depth options people would like to see? As of now it seems like an injury could really screw us up.

 

Thanks a lot for bumping this up, Governator. Hopefully we can have a positive discussion in here about the rotation, though I'm already seeing some signs against that

[Pendleton]

Bolsinger

Oberholtzer

Biagini

 

Probably in that order.

 

I guess we could toss Sparkman somewhere into that mix too. If he has a strong ST he's a likely candidate to be our swing man to start the year.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I'd like to see them stretch Biagini in the spring, although that seems unlikely now. It's worth a look IMO.

[RealAccountant]

I have a feeling Liriano is going to have a big year

[Pendleton]

I have a feeling Liriano is going to have a big year

 

I'm optimistic about Liriano this year as well. All we really need is for him to be a solid innings eater, but I have a feeling he may bring more.

 

Ideal scenario - Liriano has a great season, gets successfully replaced by one of our young starters, signs a multi year deal with another AL East team and falls apart.

[Laika]

Taxi Squad / Swing-men (#6-10):

 

Bolsinger

Oberholtzer

Biagini

Sparky

 

Realistic 2nd half options:

None. This is a glaring organizational weakness. It would be amazing right now to have one or two SP prospects with upside who had logged a lot of fruitful AA innings last year.

 

Pipe-dream 2nd half options (they could all maybe start at AA, so if they dominate...):

 

Conner Greene

Sean Reid-Foley

Francisco Rios

 

Apocalypse options (Org guys who would get their tits lit up):

 

Shane Dawson

Jeremy Gabryszwski

Taylor Cole

Casey Lawrence

[Brownie19]

Are there any other depth options people would like to see? As of now it seems like an injury could really screw us up.

 

Thanks a lot for bumping this up, Governator. Hopefully we can have a positive discussion in here about the rotation, though I'm already seeing some signs against that

 

If we assume Bolsinger and Biagini are both in the bullpen (and maybe Sparkman) - then the only other depth we're going to add are guys like Oberholtzer or some old vets trying hang on who we can stick in AAA (like we did in the past with Randy Wolf, Carmona, LeBlanc, etc.). We don't really have any good prospects who are on the verge of contributing.

 

I think we'd all like to see some more depth, but unless we're trading for a SP prospect on the verge of helping the big league club - it seems highly unlikely to happen.

[fatcowxlive]

Bolsinger

Oberholtzer

Biagini

 

Probably in that order.

 

Yikes doesn't look good

 

Are there any other depth options people would like to see? As of now it seems like an injury could really screw us up.

 

Thanks a lot for bumping this up, Governator. Hopefully we can have a positive discussion in here about the rotation, though I'm already seeing some signs against that

 

I don't know how teams stock up on starting depth, it always seems like the best teams just have drafted talent in AAA. For us we need to sign people to minor league contracts right? That means more talent like Oberholtzer. Unless we just stick swingmen like a Feldman or a Chavez in the bullpen that can give us some spot starts. I doubt we get another 2016 where the rotation is healthy (or at least able to make starts in Estrada's case) year round

[burlingtonbandit]

The Jays are going to sign a bunch of minor league FA so you don't have to worry about any of this yet.

[Grant77]

Our best option for getting depth in the rotation is probably just to spend on an injury prone/rehab guy like Alvarez, Ross, Parker, Wilson, or Anderson. We could also grab someone like Norris, Lincecum, or Niese to compete for a spot in ST and pitch out of the 'pen. There are still a lot of options out there, those just came to mind first.

[Terminator]

The Jays are going to sign a bunch of minor league FA so you don't have to worry about any of this yet.

 

I consider minor league FAs to be filler more than I do depth.

[TheHurl]

I consider minor league FAs to be filler more than I do depth.

 

It seems like the ones with a legitimate shot these days have the date clauses where they can move on if you don't bring them in by May 1.

[Spanky99]

Bolsinger

Oberholtzer

Biagini

 

Probably in that order.

 

Atkins yesterday...

 

[Governator]

Atkins yesterday...

 

I think it's fair to assume he'd still be a depth option in the event we have two or three downed starters. We'd probably be pretty f***ed if it things came to that though, I think our success against Bos/NY is going to rest heavily on the health of our rotation.

[snow19]

Happ ( more experienced and seniority )

Sanchez

Estrada

Stroman

Liriano / Biagini