Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[Abomination]

Robertson is no more than a sexy name and fat contract.

 

From 2011 to 2015, Robertson was the 5th most valuable (WAR) relief pitcher in baseball. He was 7th among qualifying pitchers in xFIP over that time span. Now that excludes a few guys who became relievers in the last couple years (like Britton), but he is very much more than just a sexy name.

 

Last year he had a knee issue, which likely was the cause of loss of fastball command, and correspondingly worse numbers. His velocity was still there.

[wk680]

Given the haul that Andrew Miller and Chapman netted the Yanks last year (couple of top 30 prospects), the White Sox should hold him, hope for a bounce back season and trade him at the deadline. I mean he's not Chapman or Miller, but he's been a dominate pitcher throughout his career. There's absolutely no reason to trade him for some non-prospect while eating salary.....the Sox aren't financially strapped, they're just rebuilding.

 

New topic.

 

What about this idea: Seth Maness. He is a good ground ball pitcher with low HR/9, which would fit well in the ALE. Of course the question being how he comes back off the elbow repair surgery. He made $1.4M in 2016. Maybe if they could sign him for 1 yr at $1.5M.....

[Jimcanuck]

I would love to get Robertson assuming the Sox keep some salary, I've been on that train for awhile. He has been an elite reliever and is one year removed from a 2.27 xFIP. He's not going to return a Top 100 prospect, so I don't see why people are objecting to him.

 

If you are referring to me, not objecting to him. Just not for a cost controlled pitcher with upside like Barnes - and especially when its hard to see the Jays being serious contenders.

[Brownie19]

What about this idea: Seth Maness. He is a good ground ball pitcher with low HR/9, which would fit well in the ALE. Of course the question being how he comes back off the elbow repair surgery. He made $1.4M in 2016. Maybe if they could sign him for 1 yr at $1.5M.....

 

Massive risk - seeing as he's coming off the "Maness" elbow surgery. That said - worth a spring invite!

[saskjayfan]

If you are referring to me, not objecting to him. Just not for a cost controlled pitcher with upside like Barnes - and especially when its hard to see the Jays being serious contenders.

 

so you think the Jays are a long shot to make the playoffs? As long as you get in the playoffs anything can happen

[Jimcanuck]

so you think the Jays are a long shot to make the playoffs? As long as you get in the playoffs anything can happen

 

I understand that - the Jays will be fighting for 2 wild card spots with a team with holes that had amazing luck with pitcher health the past two years. Anything can happen, but a betting man is betting against.

 

Edit: against winning the WS, that is.

[wk680]

Massive risk - seeing as he's coming off the "Maness" elbow surgery. That said - worth a spring invite!

 

I would give him the guaranteed $1.5M if that is what it takes to snag him because if he returns to form it is a risk that will pay off handsomely. Much smaller stakes than Robertson at $25M.

[wk680]

I understand that - the Jays will be fighting for 2 wild card spots with a team with holes that had amazing luck with pitcher health the past two years. Anything can happen, but a betting man is betting against.

 

Edit: against winning the WS, that is.

 

Yes and we all expected Indians would get to game 7 of the WS with 2 of their 3 best starters and Brantley on the shelf. Then there was that juggernaut Royals team in 2014. I mean who didn't see that one coming?!

[RealAccountant]

I understand that - the Jays will be fighting for 2 wild card spots with a team with holes that had amazing luck with pitcher health the past two years. Anything can happen, but a betting man is betting against.

 

Edit: against winning the WS, that is.

 

Nothing surprising ever happens in sports

 

Oh yeah hey remember when that star qb bledsoe got hurt and this 7th round pick quarterback had to step in. Wonder what happened to that scrub

 

What about when the WhiteSox surprisingly claimed Rios opening up a daily RF spot for September

 

Or when the Reds made us take a throw in the Rolen trade

 

Give it a f***ing rest. You are the worst poster on this board. People like you really want the Jays to fail so you can express your misdirected misery

[RealAccountant]

I guess the real question was if Rogers didn't make Shatkins sign Bautista would be starting the season with a 135 Mil payroll and Carrera in RF bc Shatkins has done nothing else since. They clearly weren't in on anyone else

 

Afraid of taking risks bc they dont want any blame. Unless of course it was to sign a fat dh to a massively overpriced contract who wasn't even an AVERAGE hitter last year

 

IMPEACH SHAPIRO

[Jimcanuck]

Yes and we all expected Indians would get to game 7 of the WS with 2 of their 3 best starters and Brantley on the shelf. Then there was that juggernaut Royals team in 2014. I mean who didn't see that one coming?!

 

I said anything can happen. Where do you rank the Jays currently, among the other MLB teams?

[CrackerJack]

Which of these two scenarios, do you think Shatkins would prefer for 2017:

 

1. The Jays are never really in contention for the AL East title, but they linger the whole season (say) 3 games back of the 2nd WC (and 5 games back of the 1st WC) going into the final 2 weeks.

 

2. The season goes south and the Jays are realistically out of the playoff mix come the trade deadline.

[saskjayfan]

I understand that - the Jays will be fighting for 2 wild card spots with a team with holes that had amazing luck with pitcher health the past two years. Anything can happen, but a betting man is betting against.

 

Edit: against winning the WS, that is.

 

well as a betting man, I'm betting the Jays will make the playoffs. I thought they were the best team in the AL in 2015 and they lost, so I don't think strengthening a team within striking distance is a bad thing. I do agree that Robertson isn't the move to make though.

[Jimcanuck]

Which of these two scenarios, do you think Shatkins would prefer for 2017:

 

1. The Jays are never really in contention for the AL East title, but they linger the whole season (say) 3 games back of the 2nd WC (and 5 games back of the 1st WC) going into the final 2 weeks.

 

2. The season goes south and the Jays are realistically out of the playoff mix come the trade deadline.

 

My guess is #2. They have already stated they want to get more grade A prospects into the farm system. Presumably to build a future perennial contender around Vlad (if he pans out of course) and others.

 

My preference is they don't move prospects for declining vets like Robertson, and still manage to get into the post season.

[saskjayfan]

Which of these two scenarios, do you think Shatkins would prefer for 2017:

 

1. The Jays are never really in contention for the AL East title, but they linger the whole season (say) 3 games back of the 2nd WC (and 5 games back of the 1st WC) going into the final 2 weeks.

 

2. The season goes south and the Jays are realistically out of the playoff mix come the trade deadline.

 

where's option 3...chris sale has to get tommy john surgery 3 weeks into the season and the Jays win the division by 3 games.

[wk680]

I said anything can happen. Where do you rank the Jays currently, among the other MLB teams?

 

Fangraphs has 2017 win predictions as follows (assume this is based on the Pythagorean expectation method):

Red Sox 92

Indians 91

Astros 90

Jays 84

Angels 84

Mariners 83

Rangers 83

Tigers 83

Yankees 82

Rays 82

Orioles 79

I think they are predicting it pretty well, but the Jays still have more ‘dry powder’ while Boston is unlikely to add much. So maybe by the time the regular season starts, Red Sox are at 92 and Jays are at 86. The Sox will have all the expectations on them and are missing their Papi, so they could easily underperform. I am not ready to concede the division yet.

 

ETA:

They are predicting: Boston with 4.96 RS/G and 4.27 RA/G; Toronto with 4.81 RS/G and 4.66 RA/G

Jays need to reduced the predicted RA/G - maybe bolster the bullpen ?

[RealAccountant]

#3 Jays are horrible for the next 10 years Shapiro completely kills the fan base team has to relocate to Portland and Baldy can finally marry atkins as gay marriage is legalized

 

IMPEACH SHAPIRO

[Jimcanuck]

Fangraphs has 2017 win predictions as follows (assume this is based on the Pythagorean expectation method):

Red Sox 92

Indians 91

Astros 90

Jays 84

Angels 84

Mariners 83

Rangers 83

Tigers 83

Yankees 82

Rays 82

Orioles 79

I think they are predicting it pretty well, but the Jays still have more ‘dry powder’ while Boston is unlikely to add much. So maybe by the time the regular season starts, Red Sox are at 92 and Jays are at 86. The Sox will have all the expectations on them and are missing their Papi, so they could easily underperform. I am not ready to concede the division yet.

 

Vegas has the Jays as 12th best, tied with 3 other teams at 30-1 odds to win WS. Not that great.

 

There isn't much available, and it does not make sense for Jays to incrementally increase their chances by trading prospects or cost controlled players like Barnes for vets. Now, if the Jays still had EE and were 15-1 odds or something like that, there is merit to such moves.

[fatcowxlive]

I think this team can pull off like 86 wins and sneak into a wild card spot, all we lost is Edwin and a couple of BP pieces. I don't think the +1 in age to all the vets and the additions of Morales + Pearce - Edwin equals to 5 wins lost. I guess it depends on how strong the division is this year

[Abomination]

I think this team can pull off like 86 wins and sneak into a wild card spot, all we lost is Edwin and a couple of BP pieces. I don't think the +1 in age to all the vets and the additions of Morales + Pearce - Edwin equals to 5 wins lost. I guess it depends on how strong the division is this year

 

Not to mention Liriano over Dickey.

[fatcowxlive]

Not to mention Liriano over Dickey.

 

And no Thole!!!!

[Grant77]

And no Thole!!!!

 

We haven't really upgraded on Thole just yet, unfortunately.

[Captain Adama]

We haven't really upgraded on Thole just yet, unfortunately.

 

They've upgraded by not having Thole by default.

[fatcowxlive]

We haven't really upgraded on Thole just yet, unfortunately.

 

Just the lack of him is an upgrade!

 

Edit: damn beat me to it!

They've upgraded by not having Thole by default.

[Ray]

Fangraphs has 2017 win predictions as follows (assume this is based on the Pythagorean expectation method):

Red Sox 92

Indians 91

Astros 90

Jays 84

Angels 84

Mariners 83

Rangers 83

Tigers 83

Yankees 82

Rays 82

Orioles 79

I think they are predicting it pretty well, but the Jays still have more ‘dry powder’ while Boston is unlikely to add much. So maybe by the time the regular season starts, Red Sox are at 92 and Jays are at 86. The Sox will have all the expectations on them and are missing their Papi, so they could easily underperform. I am not ready to concede the division yet.

 

ETA:

They are predicting: Boston with 4.96 RS/G and 4.27 RA/G; Toronto with 4.81 RS/G and 4.66 RA/G

Jays need to reduced the predicted RA/G - maybe bolster the bullpen ?

 

Jays/Rangers wild card in 2017 would be cool. It'll would nice to crush Texas' postseason hopes 3 years in a row.

Edited January 31, 2017 by Ray

[G-Snarls]

Jays have signed Jonathan Diaz to a minor league deal

[Spanky99]

Vegas has the Jays as 12th best, tied with 3 other teams at 30-1 odds to win WS. Not that great.

 

There isn't much available, and it does not make sense for Jays to incrementally increase their chances by trading prospects or cost controlled players like Barnes for vets. Now, if the Jays still had EE and were 15-1 odds or something like that, there is merit to such moves.

 

lol... you're seriously going to use Vegas betting lines versus an fWAR calculation on Wins?

[BTS]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/punting-first-base-is-the-new-black/

 

Cameron calling Toronto's neglect of 1B egregious given the state of the market.

 

"The Blue Jays are probably the most egregious offender here, with Justin Smoak — himself a cautionary tale about 1B prospects who extract a lot of value from their walk rates despite average power — looking like the guy in line for the most at-bats at first base. With Vogelbach and Bell, you can at least bet on their youth and hope for power development, but Smoak is 29 and has a career wRC+ of 95 in nearly 3,000 plate appearances; he is what he is."

 

There really is no reason not to give Chris Carter 4M or so share 1B/DH with Morales.

[Krylian]

This team is one year older, but not better. I'm thinking they hover in that 81-83 win range. The absolute worst possible place to be.

[glory]

Smoak at 1B and Carrera in LF against RHP is going to be brutal to watch when Pearce and Upton are better than both of them at practically everything.

 

I still say put Pearce at 1B full time and sign the best value LF you can find that can platoon with Upton.