Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[Abomination]

Am I crazy or is Greg Holland the most efficient way to add wins right now? They're saying no one will pay 2/$22M for him so what is he going to get? 2/$18M?

 

The guy was absolutely lights out, Andrew Miller level for like 4 years. Is TJ really that big of a deal? We're supposed to have all this high performance training stuff. We can rebuild him. He's on track to start 2017 anyways.

 

He was pitching hurt in 2015 and still had a 3.27 FIP........ what am I missing here.

 

I really want to see us add Holland, Casilla, and Tolleson (and Tyson Ross somehow).

 

I think Holland has the realistic potential to produce 3 to 4 WAR over 2 years, which is decent value. Tolleson is cheap (Tex wants to resign him on a MiLB deal apparently), and has good upside. Casilla has experience and good stuff still. Was hurt last year by the long ball for whatever reason.

[Boxcar]

I really want to see us add Holland, Casilla, and Tolleson (and Tyson Ross somehow).

 

Are Casilla and Tolleson injured?

[Abomination]

Are Casilla and Tolleson injured?

 

You're a hoot.

[jaysfan2014]

Are Casilla and Tolleson injured?

 

No, they just suck..

[Abomination]

No, they just suck..

 

Hardly. Casilla's last 3 years are 3.45, 3.46, and 3.67 xFIP, and he appears to likely be an xFIP beater (3.19 career ERA, 3.93 xFIP in 555 innings). He has closing experience (which is always nice), and his velocity is still there. Very good curve and slider, K rate over 10 last year. Numbers were inflated by the home runs, which were at a much higher rate than normal for him.

 

Tolleson has put up xFIPs of 3.83, 3.31, 3.89 the last 3 years. Last year suffered the home run issues too (24% hr/fb). Controllable through 2018, also has closing experience and should be signable for very little.

[Abomination]

Those xFIPs aren't even that good. Tolleson is a gas can.

 

Among qualified relievers last year, Casilla's 3.67 xFIP was 56th out of 135 , and 75th out of 222 with at least 30 innings. For reference, that places him 0.07 behind Osuna and 0.04 ahead of Biagini. Tolleson was 97th out of 222. I'm not trying to claim they're elite, but elite is f***ing expensive. We need to fill out the pen, and those guys can produce slightly above average results, with established upside for more. Both are coming off down(ish) years, which is why they could be good value signings. Pair that with a higher upside guy like Holland, and you have the makings of a good pen.

[Stangstag]

Among qualified relievers last year, Casilla's 3.67 xFIP was 56th out of 135 , and 75th out of 222 with at least 30 innings. For reference, that places him 0.07 behind Osuna and 0.04 ahead of Biagini. Tolleson was 97th out of 222. I'm not trying to claim they're elite, but elite is f***ing expensive. We need to fill out the pen, and those guys can produce slightly above average results, with established upside for more. Both are coming off down(ish) years, which is why they could be good value signings. Pair that with a higher upside guy like Holland, and you have the makings of a good pen.

 

Casilla was terrible last year

[LGBJ29]

Red Sox HAD a good farm system--unfortunately, Dombrowski destroyed it in multiple trades. All that's left is Devers and Groome and not much else (Benintendi I won't count since he's already in the majors). If the trades backfire if Sale or Kimbrel blow their elbows(good risk of that), the Sox could be in trouble. They basically boxed themselves into a 3-year window at best before the roster gets so expensive, the Sox will have difficulty keeping a competitive team together under the tax.

 

They potentially lose after 2018:

Price(opt-out),

HanRam (if his expensive option isn't picked up)

Kimbrel (they could lose him next offseason if he gets injured and the Sox decline his $13M option)

Pomeranz

Chris Sale (if he blows his elbow out, which I expect will happen based on recent history with the Sox--why do you think Chicago was willing to let him go?)

Porcello after 2019

 

Not to mention Bogaerts and Betts will likely take up a quarter of the payroll by 2019 (Betts is likely getting Trout money) And due to trades and poor development, they have very little on the farm in starting pitching.

 

As for the Yankees, no guarantees. It's dependant on Torres, Frazier, Mateo, Judge, etc.'s development. Just because they have a strong system doesn't mean they'll pan out--after all, until Sanchez, the last homegrown elite Yankees prospect was Robinson Cano..

 

Idk why you're quoting me, it was the poster I quoted who created the narrative we can't compete in the future because the red sox are in our division

[spittin]

I don't know why a few guys are writing denial thesis on this teams chances. There's not a lot of talent after JD and Sanchez....

[RealAccountant]

I don't know why a few guys are writing denial thesis on this teams chances. There's not a lot of talent after JD and Sanchez....

 

Really how many teams are getting more WAR from SS and Catchers then the Jays. The rotation is not the best rotation but I'd reckon after Boston and Cleveland you'd have a tough time finding on that generates more WAR

[spittin]

Really how many teams are getting more WAR from SS and Catchers then the Jays. The rotation is not the best rotation but I'd reckon after Boston and Cleveland you'd have a tough time finding on that generates more WAR

 

What are you using for data? Last season, or career average. Plus we have probably the worste outfield other than the Braves, still way too many holes. A huge trade is our only chance now.

[RealAccountant]

What are you using for data? Last season, or career average. Plus we have probably the worste outfield other than the Braves, still way too many holes. A huge trade is our only chance now.

 

Zips on fangraphs. They have the rotation at about 15 WAR that's pretty good

[spittin]

Zips on fangraphs. They have the rotation at about 15 WAR that's pretty good

 

Offense is the issue here, always was last season. I expect the rotation to not live up to those projections.

[Atothe]

I don't know why a few guys are writing denial thesis on this teams chances. There's not a lot of talent after JD and Sanchez....

 

What is this?

[King]

What is this?

Join Date: Oct 2015

[Captain Adama]

Join Date: Oct 2015

 

Dirty casuals.

[jaysfan2014]

I don't know why a few guys are writing denial thesis on this teams chances. There's not a lot of talent after JD and Sanchez....

 

Travis, Pillar, Osuna, Martin, Stroman, Sanchez, Donaldson, Estrada, Liriano, Happ, Biagini, Morales and Pearce, and they'll have Ramirez, McGuire, Fields, Tellez and maybe Urena in Buffalo.. and there's still time to add OF help. I mean, the East still is really between Boston and Toronto, as the O's face a big decline if Trumbo doesn't return (along with Wieters gone, and only about a year away from a Braves-style implosion of the team as Machado hits free agency after 2018 and is unlikely to resign with Baltimore). Rays are a wild card, and the Yanks are at least a year or two away.

Edited December 26, 2016 by jaysfan2014

[Rusty_Savage]

Offense is the issue here, always was last season. I expect the rotation to not live up to those projections.

 

Care to explain how so?

[RealAccountant]

I would take a good bet that if healthy our rotation is good for 15 wins

[wk680]

Travis, Pillar, Osuna, Martin, Stroman, Sanchez, Donaldson, Estrada, Liriano, Happ, Biagini, Morales and Pearce, and they'll have Ramirez, McGuire, Fields, Tellez and maybe Urena in Buffalo.. and there's still time to add OF help. I mean, the East still is really between Boston and Toronto, as the O's face a big decline if Trumbo doesn't return (along with Wieters gone, and only about a year away from a Braves-style implosion of the team as Machado hits free agency after 2018 and is unlikely to resign with Baltimore). Rays are a wild card, and the Yanks are at least a year or two away.

 

You forgot one, and I have a feeling he is going to have a big bounce back in 2017.

[Bobthe4th]

You forgot one, and I have a feeling he is going to have a big bounce back in 2017.

 

I think Tulo is going to have a big impact on the success or otherwise of 2017.

 

Hopefully he has a better start to the season than last year, and avoids major injuries.

[wk680]

I think Tulo is going to have a big impact on the success or otherwise of 2017.

 

Hopefully he has a better start to the season than last year, and avoids major injuries.

 

Totally agree. Tulo in the 5 hole could be the lynchpin to the Jays offense in 2017, just like the 'O' was for the '93 wamco crew. Not that we could expect anything close to a 1.072 !! OPS, but an 870 would be within reach.

[Bobthe4th]

Totally agree. Tulo in the 5 hole could be the lynchpin to the Jays offense in 2017, just like the 'O' was for the '93 wamco crew. Not that we could expect anything close to a 1.072 !! OPS, but an 870 would be within reach.

 

With no EE, potentially no Bautista, and a light hitting outfield (at the moment), we could see his walk rate go up, especially if he starts the season well.

 

He's potentially our 2nd best player with the bat on the current roster (though some would argue 3rd behind Travis).

 

Edit: imagine some may also argue for Pearce, however he's going to be platooning with Smoak according to Gibbons.

[Ray]

I wouldn't count out the Yankees as a Wildcard team. This season they were 5 wins away from securing a wildcard spot. And next year they won't have to give guys like ARod and Teixiera regular AB's. Also Betances won't be overworked now that they have Chapman. I'm not saying their favourites or anything, but I wouldn't rule them out as WC contenders.

[Bobthe4th]

I wouldn't count out the Yankees as a Wildcard team. This season they were 5 wins away from securing a wildcard spot. And next year they won't have to give guys like ARod and Teixiera regular AB's. Also Betances won't be overworked now that they have Chapman. I'm not saying their favourites or anything, but I wouldn't rule them out as WC contenders.

 

Bird, Judge and Sanchez all look like good young players who could all make big contributions over a full season.

 

I think if they don't make it, it'll be down to their rotation. If Tanaka gets injured, it looks pretty weak compared to the Red Sox, Rays and Jays.

[Angrioter]

The score 3 jays trade proposal for Cutchen

Deal from strenght:

Tor - McCutchen and Chris Bostick

Pit - Stroman, Sparkman and Rios

 

Rebuit time Pit

Tor - McCutchen

Pit -Biagini, SRF, Pompey, Tellez

 

3-team deal

Tor- McCutchen and Wilson (Tigers)

Pit - JD Martinez and TJ Zeuch

Det - Pompey, Conner Greene, Danny Jansen, Neverauskas

[Atothe]

Ive been duped, my apologies guys.

[Brownie19]

The score 3 jays trade proposal for Cutchen

Deal from strenght:

Tor - McCutchen and Chris Bostick

Pit - Stroman, Sparkman and Rios

 

Rebuit time Pit

Tor - McCutchen

Pit -Biagini, SRF, Pompey, Tellez

 

3-team deal

Tor- McCutchen and Wilson (Tigers)

Pit - JD Martinez and TJ Zeuch

Det - Pompey, Conner Greene, Danny Jansen, Neverauskas

 

Why would Pittsburgh want Tellez when they have Bell? Why would they want JD Martinez (although the idea of giving up Zeuch, Pompey and Greene for Cutch and Wilson is nice).

 

 

What about this deal?

 

to Pittsburgh

 

Devon Travis

Joe Biagini

Jon Harris

 

to Toronto

 

McCutchen

Josh Harrison

Anthony Bastardo

 

Pittsburgh clears a ton of $$ off their books, adds a young, controllable, good second baseman and they can convert Biagini to the rotation. Toronto adds Cutch without giving up Stro. Harrison can replace Travis at 2nd and they get a lefty for the pen.

 

Thoughts?

[RealAccountant]

I wouldn't even trade 5 years of Control of Travis straight up

[BTS]

I wouldn't even trade 5 years of Control of Travis straight up

 

4 years