Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[Spanky99]

Blue Jays Still In On Edwin Encarnacion

 

By Jeff Todd | December 1, 2016 at 9:22am CDT

 

The Astros continue to strive to add another bat, with the team confident it will land either Edwin Encarnacion or Carlos Beltran, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Still, the Yankees, Blue Jays, and a “couple others” remain involved on Encarnacion, Heyman tweets.

[intentional wok]

On a Morales and EE tandem:

 

 

I like Atkins but this seems an iffy thing to say. I'd prefer to see the context, but EE is a 35-40 HR and .350 OBP rock. Unless you don't think he's that guy anymore, using this as a semi-argument against bringing him back kind of makes me sneer.

[jerb]

 

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith Verified account 

‏@bnicholsonsmith

Atkins on how Morales deal impacts possible EE pursuit: "It doesn't make it impossible, but it certainly made it less likely." #BlueJays

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith Verified account 

‏@bnicholsonsmith

Still, #BlueJays are keeping in touch with Encarnacion. Atkins added: "Two guys that do similar things is less than ideal for a team"

[Spanky99]

He said this on the 19th also... I posted it in the Bautista thread, he sees that as a better fit.

[intentional wok]

He said this on the 19th also... I posted it in the Bautista thread, he sees that as a better fit.

 

Who is a better fit? Bautista? Yeah, maybe. He can at least give you some OF reps in a pinch.

[Stangstag]

He said this on the 19th also... I posted it in the Bautista thread, he sees that as a better fit.

 

Bautista is definitely a better fit now that we have Morales locked in for 3 years. Bautista could probably split time at 1B and RF and put up around 3 WAR.

[Spanky99]

Who is a better fit? Bautista? Yeah, maybe. He can at least give you some OF reps in a pinch.

 

Bautista is definitely a better fit now that we have Morales locked in for 3 years. Bautista could probably split time at 1B and RF and put up around 3 WAR.

 

Yes... he said it.

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/7042-Jose-Bautista-struggling-to-find-a-deal?p=1092549&viewfull=1#post1092549

[jerb]

 

Jon Heyman Verified account

‏@JonHeyman

Word circulating is that Fowler camp thinks they can get 18M per on multiyear. Stl, SF, Tor among teams believed interested

[Terminator]

 

Jon Heyman Verified account

‏@JonHeyman

Word circulating is that Fowler camp thinks they can get 18M per on multiyear. Stl, SF, Tor among teams believed interested

 

18 x 4 = 72. The associated loss of a pick is worth about 7 million so that pushes it to 79 million total.

 

Sounds good sign me up.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Too Rich and Too many years to lose a pick over to boot. I'd pass on that but would take it if it ends the Jay Bruce talk!

[Abomination]

 

Jon Heyman Verified account

‏@JonHeyman

Word circulating is that Fowler camp thinks they can get 18M per on multiyear. Stl, SF, Tor among teams believed interested

 

I'd rather go 5x16 than 4x18, but he is a really good fit. We may have to bite the bullet and overpay a little.

[reedjohnsonfan]

18 x 4 = 72. The associated loss of a pick is worth about 7 million so that pushes it to 79 million total.

 

Sounds good sign me up.

 

I've heard that before. Do you know off the top of your head where I can see how they came up with this value? It's gotta be different for every team.

[Spanky99]

I've heard that before. Do you know off the top of your head where I can see how they came up with this value? It's gotta be different for every team.

 

Google is your friend.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Google is your friend.

 

I assume there is something more legit about the calculations that wouldn't necessarily be super easy to find. Someone intelligent like Terminator might have some resources in his back pocket.

[Spanky99]

I assume there is something more legit about the calculations that wouldn't necessarily be super easy to find. Someone intelligent like Terminator might have some resources in his back pocket.

 

Nope they fall back to 85', good luck.

[Laika]

I've heard that before. Do you know off the top of your head where I can see how they came up with this value? It's gotta be different for every team.

 

Yeah the value of each pick is obviously different. And the competitive timeline of the MLB team changes pick valuation as well.

 

Here is an intense article that lands at similar values.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

 

For example, a pick in the 26-30 range appears to be worth around $16.6 million in today’s dollars. However, when you account for the fact that the pick won’t produce any value for years to come, the value drops more than 50 percent to $8.1 million.

 

The same draft picks would be worth $10.9 million if you were to assume just a five percent annual discount for future WAR (as Silver did). I’m not an economist, so I’ll yield to Matt Swartz who is much more qualified to measure the future value of major league wins, as he has in the past. This point merely illustrates how a team building for a few years down the road that might not discount future WAR quite as much can end up with a very different draft pick valuation.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Yeah the value of each pick is obviously different. And the competitive timeline of the MLB team changes pick valuation as well.

 

Here is an intense article that lands at similar values.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

 

Great thanks, much appreciated.

[Terminator]

I've heard that before. Do you know off the top of your head where I can see how they came up with this value? It's gotta be different for every team.

 

I can't remember. I remember a few years ago it was 5 million, I just eyeballed it up to 7. It's more or less pulled out of my ass but it seems plausible.

[Daniel Labude]

Isn't it worth losing the pick if the talent level between where we are picking and where the Bautista and Edwin picks would be are comparable this season? I haven't looked to see but I figure it would be pretty close.

[Laika]

Isn't it worth losing the pick if the talent level between where we are picking and where the Bautista and Edwin picks would be are comparable this season? I haven't looked to see but I figure it would be pretty close.

 

The mental gymnastics aren't necessary; you can basically consider the three picks as owned property already.

 

Just factor the $ value of the lost pick into the size of the contract needed to sign the free agent.

[Jonn]

4 years and 18 million annually for Fowler. I'd pass. If we wanted him so bad probably should have went after him last off-season. 3 years 33M last year before he spurned the Orioles. And took a chance on himself contract with the Cubs instead. Good for him. Hopefully someone else gives him that money.

[GreekFatAss]

4 years and 18 million annually for Fowler. I'd pass. If we wanted him so bad probably should have went after him last off-season. 3 years 33M last year before he spurned the Orioles. And took a chance on himself contract with the Cubs instead. Good for him. Hopefully someone else gives him that money.

 

We didn't have a glaring need for an outfield bat like we do now.

[jaysguy44]

Hope we get Dex:)

[RealAccountant]

4 years and 18 million annually for Fowler. I'd pass. If we wanted him so bad probably should have went after him last off-season. 3 years 33M last year before he spurned the Orioles. And took a chance on himself contract with the Cubs instead. Good for him. Hopefully someone else gives him that money.

 

I wouldn't. That is a good 4 win improvement over our two replacement level corner outfielders

[Daniel Labude]

The mental gymnastics aren't necessary; you can basically consider the three picks as owned property already.

 

Just factor the $ value of the lost pick into the size of the contract needed to sign the free agent.

 

That's true but the $ value for a certain pick doesnt always work from year to year depending on the talent of a given draft or is it that the talent level is almost equal where our picks would be?

[burlingtonbandit]

That's true but the $ value for a certain pick doesnt always work from year to year depending on the talent of a given draft or is it that the talent level is almost equal where our picks would be?

 

Talent level after picks 20 are mostly the same. Where you hear if a draft is "great" or not they usually are talking about the top half of the first round.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

I will say it again Dexter Fowler is not worth 4 year and especially 18 million a year, adding the list of a pick to top it off makes it all a non go for me and at this time not sure the team needs 4 year term players based on our milb system!

 

Again for less years and what 6-8 mill less you can get virtually the same player stats wise, who has been consistent for longer in pagan !

 

Then take that savings alone and beef up the pen!

 

Heck you might be able to get both Pagan and Gomez on one year deals for that same 18 million!

[Laika]

That's true but the $ value for a certain pick doesnt always work from year to year depending on the talent of a given draft or is it that the talent level is almost equal where our picks would be?

 

In reality, a pick that is theoretically worth $10M will probably be worth either nothing or much, much more than that. Draft picks find their expected value "in the tails". The vast majority of picks are worth nothing but the ones who make it are worth a truckload.

 

But we can't know the talent level of a particular draft and we can't know the talent level of a particular draft pick until years down the road. A decade+.

 

A draft that looks like s*** before it happens might have a Mike Trout somewhere in the 2nd round, making the entire thing "a great draft".

 

So the only thing you can sensibly do is average everything out, look at the mean, treat all drafts the same, treat all 22nd overall picks the same, assign dollar values to s***, run the numbers, make decisions, and move forward.

[Jonn]

We didn't have a glaring need for an outfield bat like we do now.

 

Well we actually kinda did. LF was wide open and so was the leadoff spot. Saunders had a great first half but they certainly didn't plan on it. They allegedly had money and were willing to take Jay Bruce also threw away 2M on Franklin Morales. I among other people suggested him last year. He signed fairly late. He made a ton of sense while his market value made sense. Now he's going to be grossly overpaid.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Well we actually kinda did. LF was wide open and so was the leadoff spot. Saunders had a great first half but they certainly didn't plan on it. They allegedly had money and were willing to take Jay Bruce also threw away 2M on Franklin Morales. I among other people suggested him last year. He signed fairly late. He made a ton of sense while his market value made sense. Now he's going to be grossly overpaid.

 

What are you even basing the idea that he's going to be grossly overpaid on? 33/3 isn't that high, he can't play defense but is a good bat and posted two strong consecutive years in a row. Why is he now overpaid relative to what you think he's worth on the free agent market?