Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[ChrisS]

Bautista actually has a pretty good projection, 2.9 WAR in 138 games. Compare that to Edwin who is projected for 2.3 WAR in 146 games.

 

Given how much money and term each will likely get I think I'd be much more inclined to sign Jose.

 

What were both of their projections twelve months ago?

[G-Snarls]

Davidi interview with Shapiro on payroll:

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-expected-big-league-payroll-2017/

[G-Snarls]

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. –

 

Mark Shapiro isn’t saying it directly and his vagueness on the matter is by design, but the Toronto Blue Jays will have more big-league payroll to work with in 2017.

 

The precise size of the increase is unclear – “it’s a competitive disadvantage to discuss payroll publicly,” the club’s president and CEO says during an interview. However, as the Blue Jays push to re-sign Edwin Encarnacion, there’d be no logic in bringing him back if they didn’t have the money to fill in around him. “As we head into free agency, I’m confident that we’re being provided the resources necessary to both sign players and continue to field a championship team,” is the closest Shapiro would come to actually saying the payroll was going up. The Blue Jays are believed to have spent roughly $152 million on the big-league club in 2016, when they entered the post-season as a wild-card and advanced to the American League Championship Series before losing in five games to Cleveland.

 

Already on the books for 2017 is $106.3 million in guarantees to nine players, a number that shoots up to $112.2 million when the arbitration projections for Marcus Stroman, Aaron Loup and Darwin Barney are factored in. Encarnacion is a top priority and industry sources peg the floor for him at $80 million over four years. With a qualifying offer of $17.2 million extended to Jose Bautista, the Blue Jays would have to be able to absorb something near $40 million for the both of them next year, with money left to plug other holes.

 

Shapiro would not discuss the state of negotiations with Encarnacion – "Any comment about our efforts to sign him hurts our chances to sign him," he said – but made clear the Blue Jays’ intentions for the winter.

 

"We absolutely feel we have a core of talent in place that objectively is a contending ball club if we can make some additions this off-season," said Shapiro.

 

The payroll increase from team owner Rogers Communications Inc., comes after the Blue Jays led the American League in attendance at 3,392,099, the fifth highest total in franchise history. On TV, their average audience of 1.01 million during the regular season established a new record on Sportsnet, underlining the club’s economic reach. In August, the Blue Jays announced an increase in ticket costs for the third straight year, with season-seat prices rising an average of nine per cent for early-bird renewals under a wide-scale matrix restructuring.

 

"There has been support, an understanding of the window of opportunity we’re in right now and the importance of trying to field a championship-calibre or contending team," Shapiro said of ownership.

[Brownie19]

Is Luke Hochevar a decent target to help fill out the bullpen?

[KingKat]

Is Luke Hochevar a decent target to help fill out the bullpen?

 

He looked pretty good last year. I'd be all over that.

[Laika]

Is Luke Hochevar a decent target to help fill out the bullpen?

 

Decent target - sure.

 

To help the bullpen - no.

 

He had TOS surgery in August and should be counted on for absolutely nothing in 2017.

[fatcowxlive]

Nope. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if he signs with the Orioles or Rangers. Seems like a good fit for those teams.

 

Maybe Seattle? Do they have payroll space? They seem to be acquiring power bats the last 2 years

[RealAccountant]

Under the right circumstances we can see this payroll shoot up to 170Mil. That leaves 50 Mil to spend on short term, we cant give EE half that and expect to win a championship. We need 4 or 5 pieces, and we should spend this money acquiring these pieces. If we can do 4/90 with EE with 20, 20, 25, 25, I'd be okay with that. Then we have about 30Mil to spend. From there on we absolutely need to focus on adding relief pitching. We have a dynamic rotation, and we need to add a good relief core. Bringing Cecil back isn't really enough, we need to do more.

 

This organisation is not going to give up on Smoak. So we need a Right Fielder who is a left handed hitter and also more of an hitting/on base hitter, also need to add a competent backup C and a possible utility

 

Then

 

RF - New

CF - Pillar

LF - Upton/Carrera

3B - Donaldson

SS - Tulo

2B - Travis

1B - EE/Smoak

DH EE/Smoak/Anyone

C - Martin

 

Pitching side

 

Starters

Sanchez

Stroman

Happ

Estrada

Liriano

Biagini

 

 

Relievers

Osuna

Grilli

??? Really drops off from there.

 

Can Shatkins rebuild a great bullpen, add an Outfielder, a backup C, and a good infield/outfield option and still buiid a competing bullpen for 30 Mil, I am not sure.

[Brownie19]

Decent target - sure.

 

To help the bullpen - no.

 

He had TOS surgery in August and should be counted on for absolutely nothing in 2017.

 

Right - my bad.

[burlingtonbandit]

What were both of their projections twelve months ago?

 

I believe Edwin was around 3 WAR and Jose 4 but don't quote me on that.

[Bobthe4th]

I believe Edwin was around 3 WAR and Jose 4 but don't quote me on that.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/10/23/the-2016-blue-jays-according-to-steamer/

 

EE = 2.9, Jose = 3.8.

 

Note that this was before any offseason roster moves so Price is still there, there's no Happ etc.

[ChrisS]

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/10/23/the-2016-blue-jays-according-to-steamer/

 

EE = 2.9, Jose = 3.8.

 

Note that this was before any offseason roster moves so Price is still there, there's no Happ etc.

 

In the end EE put up 3.9 while Jose put up 1.4. I would be suprised if Jose puts up more WAR than EE next year... regardless of what the projections say.

[burlingtonbandit]

In the end EE put up 3.9 while Jose put up 1.4. I would be suprised if Jose puts up more WAR than EE next year... regardless of what the projections say.

 

sounds like recency bias.

[King]

I feel bad for Wilson Ramos. He was going to get paid, then his ACL blew out in the last week of the season, and he's lost himself millions of dollars.

[ChrisS]

sounds like recency bias.

The eye test says Jose wasn't able to catch up to pitches that he would have taken out of the park last year. It also says he was a poor defender and a liability in the field. EE played 1B very well. I hope I'm wrong, we sign both and they both perform well. EE is going to get paid much more, which shouldn't be the case if Jose really is expected to put up more WAR, both in 2017 and beyond.

 

I would sign Jose 3/50 and Edwin a slightly back loaded 4/90, have them both platoon 1B and DH and figure out a way to get rid of Smoak

[Stangstag]

I feel bad for Wilson Ramos. He was going to get paid, then his ACL blew out in the last week of the season, and he's lost himself millions of dollars.

 

AND he had to watch his team in the playoffs on TV

[burlingtonbandit]

The eye test says Jose wasn't able to catch up to pitches that he would have taken out of the park last year. It also says he was a poor defender and a liability in the field. EE played 1B very well. I hope I'm wrong, we sign both and they both perform well. EE is going to get paid much more, which shouldn't be the case if Jose really is expected to put up more WAR, both in 2017 and beyond.

 

I would sign Jose 3/50 and Edwin a slightly back loaded 4/90, have them both platoon 1B and DH and figure out a way to get rid of Smoak

 

The eye test said the exact same thing for Edwin the first month. Bautista is a poor defender and unless he regains his arm should not play in the OF, but I still believe in the bat. I wouldn't sign both of them at those numbers under any circumstances. Much rather sign someone else and get at least 1 pick back.

[ChrisS]

Edwin had no spring training.

Either way if Rogers plans to cheap out, don't expect to make the playoffs this year. We got great value out of those 2, now it's time to up the payroll. No reason why we don't have a 170 mill payroll on opening day.

[burlingtonbandit]

Edwin had no spring training.

Either way if Rogers plans to cheap out, don't expect to make the playoffs this year. We got great value out of those 2, now it's time to up the payroll. No reason why we don't have a 170 mill payroll on opening day.

 

Agree about the payroll but they can sign other players than EE and be better.

[Stangstag]

Agree about the payroll but they can sign other players than EE and be better.

 

This. Bautista and Edwin aren't the only good bats on the market.

[KingKat]

Agree about the payroll but they can sign other players than EE and be better.

 

That's only true in theory though. You are always limited to the players that WANT to sign with you. As far as I know, EE might be the only significant free agent willing to leave some money on the table to sign with the Jays. That has to factor heavily into your decision making as an organization.

[Angrioter]

I feel bad for Wilson Ramos. He was going to get paid, then his ACL blew out in the last week of the season, and he's lost himself millions of dollars.

 

He's rich, young and handsome

[Angrioter]

Decent target - sure.

 

To help the bullpen - no.

 

He had TOS surgery in August and should be counted on for absolutely nothing in 2017.

 

Gavin Floyd is better option short term

[burlingtonbandit]

That's only true in theory though. You are always limited to the players that WANT to sign with you. As far as I know, EE might be the only significant free agent willing to leave some money on the table to sign with the Jays. That has to factor heavily into your decision making as an organization.

 

If it takes 4/90 to get EE I'd rather look elsewhere. With the amount of corner OF/DH bats on the market they should be able to sign a FA by giving him the most money and the deal still looking good.

[Brownie19]

If it takes 4/90 to get EE I'd rather look elsewhere. With the amount of corner OF/DH bats on the market they should be able to sign a FA by giving him the most money and the deal still looking good.

 

This EE debate reminds me of the yearly discussion on relievers. We often say why would you take the risk of signing a reliever to a 3-5 year deal (given how volatile they are) when you can typically pull a failed starter, or someone coming back off injury off the scrap heap on a low risk, 1 year deal, who will give you 90% of the return.

 

We can sign a guy like Beltran, Holliday, Morales, Moss, etc. to a short term deal and hope for a 120 wRC+ season out of them, or we can take the risk on a bat only, mid 30 year old slugger who'll likely give us a 130-135 wRC+ season (in 2017 and then who knows from there).

 

 

Historically, I've preferred the low risk approach to relief pitchers and thus I think I prefer the same route for our DH. I'd rather see the money spent on younger, more versatile players.

Edited November 9, 2016 by Brownie19

[BlueRocky]

Who would you rather have - Cespedes 5 years $125M, EE 4 years $100M or Fowler 4 Years $80M???

 

Personally would go with Cespedes, I think he's got the potential to add the most wins of the 3 for the next few years, and would likely hit 40+ HR at the RC.

 

The chance of having Edwin stay for 4 more years with decent production, getting another year or two of playoff runs and potentially retiring his number at the end appeals to a lot of fans. There's value there that goes beyond 42 homers and 127 RBIs.

 

The smarter thing is a probably going after Fowler, signing a reliever, and find a value replacement at 1B/DH with slightly more money they'll have throw at EE

[G-Snarls]

The smarter thing is a probably going after Fowler, signing a reliever, and find a value replacement at 1B/DH with slightly more money they'll have throw at EE

 

I don't hate this plan at all

[burlingtonbandit]

The chance of having Edwin stay for 4 more years with decent production, getting another year or two of playoff runs and potentially retiring his number at the end appeals to a lot of fans. There's value there that goes beyond 42 homers and 127 RBIs.

 

The smarter thing is a probably going after Fowler, signing a reliever, and find a value replacement at 1B/DH with slightly more money they'll have throw at EE

 

If Edwin starts sucking it all gets thrown out the window. People said that about Bautista, and after a few bad months there are fans wanting him to leave...

 

Shapiro is smart and has said many times that while there is appeal of having a long tenured star, its moot if the team isn't any good.

[Brownie19]

The chance of having Edwin stay for 4 more years with decent production, getting another year or two of playoff runs and potentially retiring his number at the end appeals to a lot of fans. There's value there that goes beyond 42 homers and 127 RBIs.

 

The smarter thing is a probably going after Fowler, signing a reliever, and find a value replacement at 1B/DH with slightly more money they'll have throw at EE

 

Catering to the fans is the first step to failure.

[G-Snarls]

Catering to the fans is the first step to failure.

 

Areed

 

Just put a winning team on the field