Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[Grant77]

It's at about 117 right now for the current team, including projected arb salaries.

 

Cots has about 114 using MLBTR's projections for Stroman, Loup, and Barney. Where are your numbers from?

[BTS]

Cots has about 114 using MLBTR's projections for Stroman, Loup, and Barney. Where are your numbers from?

 

Are they including near-minimum salaries for guys like Osuna, Sanchez, Biagini, Travis, Pillar, and Pompey? If not, that would be the difference.

[Pendleton]

Christian Yelich would even be better ... Miami needs starting pitching so - Stroman + ? for Yelich

 

Hopefully the ? would not be much

 

I don't see them moving Yelich, I'd say Ozuna would be much more attainable.

[burlingtonbandit]

Christian Yelich would even be better ... Miami needs starting pitching so - Stroman + ? for Yelich

 

Hopefully the ? would not be much

 

I was thinking of this but can't see Miami doing it. Considering Ozuna and them had a falling out a couple of years ago I think he would be more attainable. Maybe you can get something done with Happ+ a prospect.

[HERPDERP]

I don't get the obsession with Ozuna

[RealAccountant]

Lol at any one questioning BTS numbers. Dude is a f***ing legend 100 percent reliable

[wk680]

He said we won't be in the top 5, but should be in the next 5. Opening day, that range was about 126 to 166. The lower end of that results in a sub-0.500 season, and the upper end a playoff contender I think.

 

I found this article from Apr 4, 2016 with opening day payrolls (data from Spotrac):

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/major-league-baseball-opening-day-payrolls-2016-4

 

 

The Jays were 13th, with a payroll of $140.6M

10th place was Orioles at $147.9M

6th place was Cubs at $167.4 M

 

So just based on 2016, we are looking at around $150-170M to be a 6-10 range payroll.

 

I have the Jays currently at $121 M including Arb estimates from MLBtraderumors dot com and salary data from baseballreference dot com (includes $3M to Grilli, 600k each for 6 preArb players and excluding Thole).

 

So that leaves them only $30-50M to work with.

 

Especially considering the prodigious TV viewership and attendance from last half 2015 and all of 2016, I think the case could be made to ownership to go BIG for 2017. It's like the Jays at the end of 1991: on the precipice, but need to bring in some big guns to get over the hump and bring home that championship. BUT, needless to say, the key is doing it without tying yourself to some longer term contracts on older players. Maybe Matt Holliday could be brought in to DH on a 1-2 year deal and be 2017's Dave Winfield.

[BTS]

I found this article from Apr 4, 2016 with opening day payrolls (data from Spotrac):

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/major-league-baseball-opening-day-payrolls-2016-4

 

 

The Jays were 13th, with a payroll of $140.6M

10th place was Orioles at $147.9M

6th place was Cubs at $167.4 M

 

So just based on 2016, we are looking at around $150-170M to be a 6-10 range payroll.

 

I have the Jays currently at $121 M including Arb estimates from MLBtraderumors dot com and salary data from baseballreference dot com (includes $3M to Grilli, 600k each for 6 preArb players and excluding Thole).

 

So that leaves them only $30-50M to work with.

 

Especially considering the prodigious TV viewership and attendance from last half 2015 and all of 2016, I think the case could be made to ownership to go BIG for 2017. It's like the Jays at the end of 1991: on the precipice, but need to bring in some big guns to get over the hump and bring home that championship. BUT, needless to say, the key is doing it without tying yourself to some longer term contracts on older players. Maybe Matt Holliday could be brought in to DH on a 1-2 year deal and be 2017's Dave Winfield.

 

You're right, my numbers were wrong for the 5-10 ranked teams in 2016.

 

I'm curious as to how you got 121 though. What did you use for Melvin Upton?

[wk680]

Are they including near-minimum salaries for guys like Osuna, Sanchez, Biagini, Travis, Pillar, and Pompey? If not, that would be the difference.

 

Here is what I have:

Tulo 20M

Martin 20M

Donaldson 17M

Smoak 4.1M

Upton ~4.5M*

Travis ~600k

Pillar ~600k

Carrera ~1.2M (arb est.)

Barney ~1.6M (arb est.)

Goins ~600k

Estrada 14.5M

Happ 13M

Liriano 13.7M

Sanchez ~600k

Stroman ~3.5M (arb est.)

Osuna ~600k

Biagini ~600k

Grilli 3M

Loup ~1.2M (arb est.)

-------------------

TOTAL: 120.9M

 

for 10 position players and 9 pitchers. Need to add 3 relievers, 2nd catcher, DH/1B, and an OFer

 

* Using the info from the article posted earlier in the thread that SD paid a lump sum $17M to cover the remaining salary commitment for 2 months of 2016 and all of 2017 and assuming it is applied proportionately.

[BTS]

Here is what I have:

Tulo 20M

Martin 20M

Donaldson 17M

Smoak 4.1M

Upton ~4.5M*

Travis ~600k

Pillar ~600k

Carrera ~1.2M (arb est.)

Barney ~1.6M (arb est.)

Goins ~600k

Estrada 14.5M

Happ 13M

Liriano 13.7M

Sanchez ~600k

Stroman ~3.5M (arb est.)

Osuna ~600k

Biagini ~600k

Grilli 3M

Loup ~1.2M (arb est.)

-------------------

TOTAL: 120.9M

 

for 10 position players and 9 pitchers. Need to add 3 relievers, 2nd catcher, DH/1B, and an OFer

 

* Using the info from the article posted earlier in the thread that SD paid a lump sum $17M to cover the remaining salary commitment for 2 months of 2016 and all of 2017 and assuming it is applied proportionately.

 

I can't find the article now, but I'm like 95% sure it was reported that the $5M Toronto owed Upton would be on the 2016 books, rather than 2017. I've been treating him like league a league min player, but I'm not sure his salary even matters at all for 2017 budget purposes.

[wk680]

You're right, my numbers were wrong for the 5-10 ranked teams in 2016.

 

I'm curious as to how you got 121 though. What did you use for Melvin Upton?

 

Upton had a reported salary of $15.45M in 2016 and $16.45M in 2017. Since the Jays got him with about 2 months to go in 2016, they pay him about 1/3 or $5.1M.

 

Now if the article was true about a $17M pot of cash being sent over from SD, I assume Jays could use it at their discretion. If they allocated 1/4 of that money to 2016, that's 4.25M, and leaves 12.75M to go toward his 2017 salary. So 16.45 - 12.75 = 3.7M. I guess I put 4.5 M since that is roughly midway between my calculation and what baseballreference has (16.45 -11.45 paid by SD)

[Terminator]

Here is what I have:

Tulo 20M

Martin 20M

Donaldson 17M

Smoak 4.1M

Upton ~4.5M*

Travis ~600k

Pillar ~600k

Carrera ~1.2M (arb est.)

Barney ~1.6M (arb est.)

Goins ~600k

Estrada 14.5M

Happ 13M

Liriano 13.7M

Sanchez ~600k

Stroman ~3.5M (arb est.)

Osuna ~600k

Biagini ~600k

Grilli 3M

Loup ~1.2M (arb est.)

-------------------

TOTAL: 120.9M

 

for 10 position players and 9 pitchers. Need to add 3 relievers, 2nd catcher, DH/1B, and an OFer

 

* Using the info from the article posted earlier in the thread that SD paid a lump sum $17M to cover the remaining salary commitment for 2 months of 2016 and all of 2017 and assuming it is applied proportionately.

 

Who on that list has options? Zeke, Goins and perhaps Loup are the three I'm looking at.

[wk680]

I can't find the article now, but I'm like 95% sure it was reported that the $5M Toronto owed Upton would be on the 2016 books, rather than 2017. I've been treating him like league a league min player, but I'm not sure his salary even matters at all for 2017 budget purposes.

 

Yeah I see what you mean. Looked at another way: if Jays owed Upton ~$5.1M for 2016 (1/3 of season) and 16.45M for 2017, that's $21.55 M total. Subtract the reported $17M that accompanied him from SD, means Jays are only on the hook for a total of $4.55 M. So if they front loaded how much of that they paid with their own money this season, the $17M they got from SD is largely intact and, as you say, he is almost free for 2017. Appears to make him a nice trade chip for someone looking to pick up a cheap roster piece.

[BTS]

Yeah I see what you mean. Looked at another way: if Jays owed Upton ~$5.1M for 2016 (1/3 of season) and 16.45M for 2017, that's $21.55 M total. Subtract the reported $17M that accompanied him from SD, means Jays are only on the hook for a total of $4.55 M. So if they front loaded how much of that they paid with their own money this season, the $17M they got from SD is largely intact and, as you say, he is almost free for 2017. Appears to make him a nice trade chip for someone looking to pick up a cheap roster piece.

 

Yes. I'm pretty sure it was reported that they had budget room in 2016 and chose to use the money this way to save room on the 2017 budget. Hopefully someone can find the article.

[Grant77]

Who on that list has options? Zeke, Goins and perhaps Loup are the three I'm looking at.

 

I don't think Zeke even had options this year. 2017 will be his 7th season in the majors.

[glory]

Carerra made the team in 2016 because he had no options. I don't see the point in carrying both him and Upton. If both are on the opening day roster next year then one of them is probably starting, and that wouldn't be good to put it mildly.

[Terminator]

I don't think Zeke even had options this year. 2017 will be his 7th season in the majors.

 

Yeah it appears he's out of options. His value to the team is pretty limited in that case. I wonder if he could net a backup C or a reliever in a trade. He'd be an alright 5th OF/bench player in the NL.

[Grant77]

Yeah it appears he's out of options. His value to the team is pretty limited in that case. I wonder if he could net a backup C or a reliever in a trade. He'd be an alright 5th OF/bench player in the NL.

 

I'd take him on my bench in a second if I were a team in the senior circuit. His LH bat, speed, and bunting ability makes for an ideal 5th OF.

[Brownie19]

It's ironic how most of us gagged at the mere thought of Zeke on the roster in the first place. Now casuals want to give him a starting role in 2017 and others thinks he actually has value on the trade market (which he may)!

[wk680]

Yes. I'm pretty sure it was reported that they had budget room in 2016 and chose to use the money this way to save room on the 2017 budget. Hopefully someone can find the article.

 

So how about this idea: with all the talk of the Jays acquiring Jay Bruce, there is another name out there that has gone relatively unmentioned. That being Carlos Gonzalez. He will be in the final year of his contract at $20M. The Rockies have another lefthanded OFer in 22 yo David Dahl who just turned in a .315/.359/.500 in 63 games and 237 PA. There is rumblings that they have 4 potential everyday OFers (Dahl, Gonzalez, Blackmon, and Parra) but no regular 1Bman. So I read the speculation is they may try playing CarGo at 1B. With CarGo in final year of his contract, I wonder if they agree to move him for something along the lines of: Smoak (1Bman), Upton + cash (cheap 4th OFer), and 1-2 mid level prospects. That team is not shaping up to be a contender anyway, and their pitching (27th best ERA in 2016) is looking to be in a rebuilding mode. For a reference point, the year they made the WS in 2007, they had the 14th ranked ERA. Admittedly, I may be way underestimating what COL would demand for CarGo, especially as he was just named a finalist for Gold Glove award. And they may see more strategic value in trading him at the 2017 deadline.

[Bobthe4th]

Yeah it appears he's out of options. His value to the team is pretty limited in that case. I wonder if he could net a backup C or a reliever in a trade. He'd be an alright 5th OF/bench player in the NL.

 

Assuming we sign another outfielder as well, it could be a straight competition between Carrera and Pompey to make the 25 man.

 

If Pompey fails to win a role in spring training he should leave for the sake of his career and while he still has some trade value.

[BTS]

So how about this idea: with all the talk of the Jays acquiring Jay Bruce, there is another name out there that has gone relatively unmentioned. That being Carlos Gonzalez. He will be in the final year of his contract at $20M. The Rockies have another lefthanded OFer in 22 yo David Dahl who just turned in a .315/.359/.500 in 63 games and 237 PA. There is rumblings that they have 4 potential everyday OFers (Dahl, Gonzalez, Blackmon, and Parra) but no regular 1Bman. So I read the speculation is they may try playing CarGo at 1B. With CarGo in final year of his contract, I wonder if they agree to move him for something along the lines of: Smoak (1Bman), Upton + cash (cheap 4th OFer), and 1-2 mid level prospects. That team is not shaping up to be a contender anyway, and their pitching (27th best ERA in 2016) is looking to be in a rebuilding mode. For a reference point, the year they made the WS in 2007, they had the 14th ranked ERA. Admittedly, I may be way underestimating what COL would demand for CarGo, especially as he was just named a finalist for Gold Glove award. And they may see more strategic value in trading him at the 2017 deadline.

 

I'd do that deal, but I get the impression that Colorado doesn't realize how little trade value Cargo likely has this offseason.

[Terminator]

I'd do that deal, but I get the impression that Colorado doesn't realize how little trade value Cargo likely has this offseason.

 

There is a lot of buzz in Denver about trading Cargo. Not because they hate him or anything but rather they have some holes to fill and his high salary could prevent them from being filled. Not sure if the FO feels the same way.

[Brownie19]

So how about this idea: with all the talk of the Jays acquiring Jay Bruce, there is another name out there that has gone relatively unmentioned. That being Carlos Gonzalez. He will be in the final year of his contract at $20M. The Rockies have another lefthanded OFer in 22 yo David Dahl who just turned in a .315/.359/.500 in 63 games and 237 PA. There is rumblings that they have 4 potential everyday OFers (Dahl, Gonzalez, Blackmon, and Parra) but no regular 1Bman. So I read the speculation is they may try playing CarGo at 1B. With CarGo in final year of his contract, I wonder if they agree to move him for something along the lines of: Smoak (1Bman), Upton + cash (cheap 4th OFer), and 1-2 mid level prospects. That team is not shaping up to be a contender anyway, and their pitching (27th best ERA in 2016) is looking to be in a rebuilding mode. For a reference point, the year they made the WS in 2007, they had the 14th ranked ERA. Admittedly, I may be way underestimating what COL would demand for CarGo, especially as he was just named a finalist for Gold Glove award. And they may see more strategic value in trading him at the 2017 deadline.

 

CarGo reminds me a lot of Jay Bruce - with better defense (although I don't think he should be up for GG, but whatevs). Counting stats and not much else. If they'd take Smoak and Upton for him - well great obviously, but I doubt they would. For 1 year, $20 + potential for a draft pick if we qualify him after the 2017 season - he's a decent target, but nothing special. We should aim higher.

[BTS]

There is a lot of buzz in Denver about trading Cargo. Not because they hate him or anything but rather they have some holes to fill and his high salary could prevent them from being filled. Not sure if the FO feels the same way.

 

But do they realize that as a 2-win player signed for $20M, he pretty much has no trade value? I really have my doubts.

[Terminator]

But do they realize that as a 2-win player signed for $20M, he pretty much has no trade value? I really have my doubts.

 

Not really sure. I'm sure some get it while others wouldn't because he's been a big name around here for so long.

 

The new GM seems to have a clue about what he's doing so my guess is that if ownership doesn't interfere he'd value and move Cargo at an appropriate price tag.

[KingKat]

Who on that list has options? Zeke, Goins and perhaps Loup are the three I'm looking at.

 

Zeke didn't have any to start 2016 so he certainly doesn't have one now. IIRC, Goins had one left coming into 2016 and I think he used it. Loup had at least one coming into 2016 too and he spent some time in the minors as well but I think that was just a rehab assignment so I believe he'd be the only one of those three with an option.

 

Barney, Travis, Biagini and Osuan should all still have options.

[RealAccountant]

Martín de Azpilcueta invented the concept of Time Value of Money

 

He is rolling in his grave listening to you f***ing clowns talk

[HERPDERP]

if we are considering getting Reddick then we need to consider the cost of acquiring Cargo as well.

[Terminator]

Martín de Azpilcueta invented the concept of Time Value of Money

 

He is rolling in his grave listening to you f***ing clowns talk

 

Why are you so grumpy today?