Postseason scenario for the Jays

[STLJaysFan]

It goes without saying, that second wildcard spot makes it exciting for alot more fanbases which is good for baseball, more tickets sold. At this point, as long as the Blue Jays are not officially eliminated on Sunday, that's fine with me. Tie-breakers to play tie-breakers is better than off-season discussion.

[RealAccountant]

Tie-breakers to play tie-breakers is better than off-season discussion.

 

You have certainly not seen the offseason discussion threads on this forum. Meaningful discussion right there

[STLJaysFan]

I'm usually in the middle of another long Leafs season, holy mackinaw, I'm nuts!!

[Filmstudy]

Season series

 

TOR: 10-9 vs BAL, 4-3 vs DET, 3-3 vs SEA

BAL: 9-10 vs TOR, 5-2 vs DET, 1-6 vs SEA

DET: 3-4 vs TOR, 2-5 vs BAL, 4-3 vs SEA

SEA: 3-3 vs TOR, 6-1 vs BAL, 3-4 vs DET

 

SCENARIO 1: If the Jays win their remaining two games (not likely to happen)

 

1) If Baltimore also wins their remaining two, they will be in the first spot, and the Jays will be in the second spot..

That means the Jays will play at Baltimore for a wildcard game.

If the Tigers win all of their remaining games at the same time, that means the Jays may have to play tiebreaker against the Tigers before playing a wildcard game. Since the Blue Jays won the season series against the Tigers, it will be at Toronto

 

2) If Baltimore goes 1-1, the Jays are tied with them. Since the Jays won the season series against the O's, the wildcard game will be happening in Toronto.

If the Tigers win all of their remaining games at the same time, three of them are tied.

In this case, Detroit will be at Baltimore for a tie-breaker and the winner will face the Jays in Toronto. (Since Toronto has better record against both teams)

 

3) If Baltimore goes 0-2, the Jays clinch the first spot regardless..

 

NOTE: Seattle is eliminated if the Blue Jays win their remaining two games.

 

Scenario 2: If the Jays are 1-1

 

1) If the O's are 2-0, or 1-1 they are in the first spot regardless.

If the Tigers are 2-1 at the same time (including a make-up game against CLE), the Jays will play tiebreaker with them in Toronto.

If the Tigers are 3-0, Tigers are in the second spot, and the Jays are done.

 

2) If the O's are 0-2, and the Tigers win no more than 2 games, the Jays and the O's are tied.. That means, a wildcard game in Toronto

If the Tigers are 2-1 at the same time, three teams are tied. So DET at BAL, and the winner will face the Jays in Toronto

If the Tigers are 3-0 at the same time, they will be in the first wildcard spot, so Baltimore will play tiebreaker in Toronto.

 

Seattle need to win their remaining games to play at least a tiebreaker or they are done.

 

Scenario 3: If the Jays are 0-2 (Swept)

 

1) The Orioles are in the first spot regardless.

 

2 If the Tigers are 2-1 or 3-0 in their remaining games (including a make-up game against CLE), the Tigers are in, and the Jays are DONE

 

3) If the Tigers are 1-2, the Jays will play the Tigers in the tie-breaker in Toronto

-If the Mariners win all three, it will be SEA at DET for a tie breaker (Jays are done)

-If the Mariners are 2-1, that will be three way tie... and it will get more complicated

 

4) If the Tigers are 0-3, the Jays will clinch and play at Baltimore for a wildcard game.

 

 

So I think we will make it to at least a tie-breaker if we win just 1 of our next 2, but looks like we are gonna get swept and we need to think about some worst scenarios..

 

I see something different for the 3-way tiebreaker. Probably won't happen, but here are the rules I found:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/59527184/playoff-tiebreaker-rules/

 

It's extremely complicated, but in the case of 3-way ties (for 1 spot), the teams choose their A, B, C seeding based (first) on HTH among the teams. The team with the best record has the choice to either win 2 games at home or 1 on the road.

 

If there is a 3-way tie for 2 spots, then the 2 better records play for a spot with the loser having a 2nd chance game at the 3rd team.

 

Please see the link provided for details, because I know I can't explain it better.

 

In terms of the HTH records, Bal is 14-12, as is Tor, but I think Tor would have choice of seed based on record in the 2nd half. Detroit has hind teat.

[Governator]

Just f***ing win today and make me feel a little better.

[fatcowxlive]

 

The math is right but realistically with context idk... the Tigers are facing the Braves twice before playing a makeup game against the Indians who have nothing to gain from playing their regulars. Boston can literally decide to f*** us by putting out their best team today.

[BigCecil]

Just f***ing win today and make me feel a little better.

 

I'm with you. Fuk all the probabilities. Just win today. Then deal with Sunday. Control our own destiny. Sept has been a rough month in our household as Jays fans.

[Governator]

 

The math is right but realistically with context idk... the Tigers are facing the Braves twice before playing a makeup game against the Indians who have nothing to gain from playing their regulars. Boston can literally decide to f*** us by putting out their best team today.

 

Boston might f*** themselves putting out their best and risking injury. Is the weather suppose to stay s*****? They have no reason not to just play scrubs.

[fatcowxlive]

Boston might f*** themselves putting out their best and risking injury. Is the weather suppose to stay s*****? They have no reason not to just play scrubs.

 

Yeah I completely agree with you but what I'm saying is that the Tigers may as well also go on a 3 game winning streak. Atlantas throwing out a gascan tomorrow and Cleveland is probably playing a scrub, and if they win all 3 and we win our 2 then we're going to have to play a tie breaker

 

What would be more interesting is if Baltimore drops a game against the Yanks which is entirely psosbible too lol 3 way tie

[Filmstudy]

Boston might f*** themselves putting out their best and risking injury. Is the weather suppose to stay s*****? They have no reason not to just play scrubs.

 

Boston wants home field vs. Indians.

[Olerud363]

Boston might f*** themselves putting out their best and risking injury. Is the weather suppose to stay s*****? They have no reason not to just play scrubs.

 

Especially since

 

a) Detroit got a rain shortened game in Cleveland

Detroit got to play scrubs in Cleveland

c) Detroit got a rain-out in Cleveland and will be playing more scrubs on Monday.

[Olerud363]

Yeah I completely agree with you but what I'm saying is that the Tigers may as well also go on a 3 game winning streak. Atlantas throwing out a gascan tomorrow and Cleveland is probably playing a scrub, and if they win all 3 and we win our 2 then we're going to have to play a tie breaker

 

What would be more interesting is if Baltimore drops a game against the Yanks which is entirely psosbible too lol 3 way tie

 

Here are the scenarios from an emotional point of view....

 

Quick kick in the nuts - it's over in 31 hours.. Jays eliminated tomorrow at 6:07 EST.

 

Long ball squeeze - it ends with detroit winning against cleveland Monday afternoon.

 

Just sort of what the f*** I'm numb - It extends to a tie breaker for a wild card Monday or Tuesday, Jays lose that... everyone is sort of numb, but feels we kind of got a playoff game.

 

Just sort of what the f*** that was kind of fun - Jays actually make wild card game but lose, after all the s*** that happened it feels like a victory just to say Jays made the playoffs.

 

Holy f*** we are still playing?? How did that happen?? Lets get that bastard Odor!!! - somehow the Jays are in Texas Thursday or Friday

 

Anything I missed??

[harvey16]

The only silver lining is that basically any scenario that plays out with the Jays getting a WC or tiebreaker game, the Jays would at least get homefield! Trying to look on the brightside lol

[bowld]

Tigers will win out. 2 more vs the s***** Braves then 1 vs Indians with nothing to play for and will likely rest starters

[fatcowxlive]

Here are the scenarios from an emotional point of view....

 

Quick kick in the nuts - it's over in 31 hours.. Jays eliminated tomorrow at 6:07 EST.

 

Long ball squeeze - it ends with detroit winning against cleveland Monday afternoon.

 

Just sort of what the f*** I'm numb - It extends to a tie breaker for a wild card Monday or Tuesday, Jays lose that... everyone is sort of numb, but feels we kind of got a playoff game.

 

Just sort of what the f*** that was kind of fun - Jays actually make wild card game but lose, after all the s*** that happened it feels like a victory just to say Jays made the playoffs.

 

Holy f*** we are still playing?? How did that happen?? Lets get that bastard Odor!!! - somehow the Jays are in Texas Thursday or Friday

 

Anything I missed??

 

Nope you pretty much covered all bases lol. I was gonna suggest some ALCS/WS surprise scenarios but f*** it let's wait until this team can score more than 3 runs before thwt

[sg11]

I think there is slim to no chance Boston doesn't start its regulars. Like mentioned I think they will go for home field over Cleveland and the chance to bury the Jays. Who knows maybe somehow if this team does make the playoffs they will finally live up to expectation.

[Angrioter]

Jays suxx. Clean house for next season, but....................

Let's Go Jays!!

[GodDonaldson]

I think Baltimore will clinch the first spot, and the Blue Jays should be lucky if they can even play a tie-breaker against the Tigers.

 

The last two starter for the Yankees will be Severino and Cessa.. That means there are 90% chance that the O's will win all two games.

[harvey16]

Here's a hypothetical. If the Jays end up in a 3 way tie for the last WC spot which would you choose? Based on the tiebreaker rules, Jays would have a choice of winning 2 games at home or having to win only 1 game but on the road?? This would be tough but I still think I would choose only having to win 1 road game. What would you pick?

[KevinGregg]

Here's a hypothetical. If the Jays end up in a 3 way tie for the last WC spot which would you choose? Based on the tiebreaker rules, Jays would have a choice of winning 2 games at home or having to win only 1 game but on the road?? This would be tough but I still think I would choose only having to win 1 road game. What would you pick?

 

as in if we lose even one of the home games we are out totally? that sounds a lot harder than just winning one game on the road is it not?

[bowld]

Here's a hypothetical. If the Jays end up in a 3 way tie for the last WC spot which would you choose? Based on the tiebreaker rules, Jays would have a choice of winning 2 games at home or having to win only 1 game but on the road?? This would be tough but I still think I would choose only having to win 1 road game. What would you pick?

 

I would play on road only needing 1 win. Wins are hard to get no matter where you play

[CBlake]

If the Orioles and Tigers had to play a tiebreaker for the second Wild Card on Tuesday, would the AL Wildcard game in Toronto most likely be pushed back to Wednesday afternoon with the winner still travelling to Texas for the ALDS opening on Thursday night?

[RealAccountant]

If the Orioles and Tigers had to play a tiebreaker for the second Wild Card on Tuesday, would the AL Wildcard game in Toronto most likely be pushed back to Wednesday afternoon with the winner still travelling to Texas for the ALDS opening on Thursday night?

 

I think they will probably flip flop the Nl and then flip flop Alds with nlds and start Alds on Friday

[GodDonaldson]

Seattle is done

[Olerud363]

Here are the scenarios from an emotional point of view....

 

Quick kick in the nuts - it's over in 31 hours.. Jays eliminated tomorrow at 6:07 EST.

 

Long ball squeeze - it ends with detroit winning against cleveland Monday afternoon.

 

Just sort of what the f*** I'm numb - It extends to a tie breaker for a wild card Monday or Tuesday, Jays lose that... everyone is sort of numb, but feels we kind of got a playoff game.

 

Just sort of what the f*** that was kind of fun - Jays actually make wild card game but lose, after all the s*** that happened it feels like a victory just to say Jays made the playoffs.

 

Holy f*** we are still playing?? How did that happen?? Lets get that bastard Odor!!! - somehow the Jays are in Texas Thursday or Friday

 

Anything I missed??

 

Life is a game of constantly shifting expectations... while 3 days ago, perched on the precipice of doom, just getting to the wild card game seemed like victory that is no longer the case... here are the new "emotional" scenarios from today's point of view

 

Quick kick in the nuts - it's over in 12 hours, Buck is victorious, Orioles hang out celebrates.

 

Long ball squeeze - it's over in a few days, Texas and Odor have their revenge.

 

Just sort of what the f*** that was kind of fun - Lose to Boston/Cleveland in ALCS, same as last year, but given lower expectations everyone is happy.

 

Holy f*** we are playing the f***ing Cubs!!!!! -

 

Anything I missed??

[Olerud363]

Life is a game of constantly shifting expectations... while 3 days ago, perched on the precipice of doom, just getting to the wild card game seemed like victory that is no longer the case... here are the new "emotional" scenarios from today's point of view

 

Quick kick in the nuts - it's over in 12 hours, Buck is victorious, Orioles hang out celebrates.

 

Long ball squeeze - it's over in a few days, Texas and Odor have their revenge.

 

Just sort of what the f*** that was kind of fun - Lose to Boston/Cleveland in ALCS, same as last year, but given lower expectations everyone is happy.

 

Holy f*** we are playing the f***ing Cubs!!!!! -

 

Anything I missed??

 

No matter what happens we end up in the same spot... with the same four possibilities

 

1. Swift kick in the nuts - it ends in hours.

2. Long ball squeeze - it ends in ~30 hours. Same as 1., depressing last game at home, but just longer.

3. That was kind of OK - it ends in Cleveland on the weekend, given everything it feels like a win, cuz we end at the exact same point as last year.

4. WTF There is a game tonight?? - There is a game Tuesday