Implosion/Explosion End of Jays 2016

[Olerud363]

The end of the 2016 season is coming within 5 weeks even in the best case scenario.

 

I know we allready have explosion and implosion threads but at this point it can go from explosion to implosion on one play. Here is what we are dealing with

 

Orioles 88/7%

Jays 86.2%

Tigers 14.7

Marier 10.4

 

Every one else has been eliminated

 

Tonight

 

Estrada/Porcello - Questions: Will the Kings of fun wake up?? Do the Sox care?? Will Porcello pitch more than 3 innings??

 

Gallardo/Pinedo - Questions: Will Gallardo pull a Jiminez?? Do the Yanks and Headley hate the Kings enough to blow this game, or not bring their a-game??

 

Norris/Misler - Question: Will Norris come back and screw us?? Atlanta is pretty hot, will they keep it up and help us??

 

All probabilities could be drastically different tomorrow...

 

What we hope: Jays probability does not change by more than 13.8% over the weekend

 

Explosion?? Implosion?? In 4 or 5 days we will be able to rule out complete implosion or it will become a certainty.

 

What we want -- to be discussing explosion next Thursday morning.

[Olerud363]

I almost forgot

 

Alcantara Walker.... anyone care??

 

Are the probabilities messed up because of factors fan-graphs does not consider?? Are the tigers chances actually better, because if they get to the Monday game against Cleveland they actually have a 90% chance of winning that one, because Cleveland will not risk any pitcher relevant to their Division series??

[Grant77]

It's time to give this guy a temp ban.

[RealAccountant]

A part of me now wants Jays to lose just to spite Olerud

[Governator]

I almost forgot

 

Alcantara Walker.... anyone care??

 

Are the probabilities messed up because of factors fan-graphs does not consider?? Are the tigers chances actually better, because if they get to the Monday game against Cleveland they actually have a 90% chance of winning that one, because Cleveland will not risk any pitcher relevant to their Division series??

 

 

I'm actually surprised the clinched teams don't care as much about #1 seed as they should. Just like we didn't last year, which was stupid. Also, throwing 90% chance of a win out there as if it's a factual probability in a thread you created about probabilities is nonsense, but I understand your point.

[KevinGregg]

I'm actually surprised the clinched teams don't care as much about #1 seed as they should. Just like we didn't last year, which was stupid. Also, throwing 90% chance of a win out there as if it's a factual probability in a thread you created about probabilities is nonsense, but I understand your point.

 

In all seriousness though, does fangraphs account for the fact that teams are tending to rest their starters once they clinch? Cleveland played the B team, it's likely that Boston will as well to some degree.

 

How much does our probability of winning change if the sox rest most of their good players tonight?

[Olerud363]

I'm actually surprised the clinched teams don't care as much about #1 seed as they should. Just like we didn't last year, which was stupid. Also, throwing 90% chance of a win out there as if it's a factual probability in a thread you created about probabilities is nonsense, but I understand your point.

 

I am sure in the model a tigers indian matchup would be about a 50%... however in reality it may be different.

 

I only threw the 90% number out there as speculation... it could be 65%, or 80%... I don't know.

 

I am really curious how people think the probabilities should be adjusted based on quality of opponent and such.

 

A lot of people think Detroit has a really good shot because they play Atlanta and then potentially a Cleveland team that doesn't care.

[Olerud363]

In all seriousness though, does fangraphs account for the fact that teams are tending to rest their starters once they clinch? Cleveland played the B team, it's likely that Boston will as well to some degree.

 

How much does our probability of winning change if the sox rest most of their good players tonight?

 

That's why I started the thread. There are a lot of moving parts here and things will change fast as the games begin.

 

How long will Porcello pitch?? What lineup will Boston put out there?? Will the rain effect things??

[KevinGregg]

That's why I started the thread. There are a lot of moving parts here and things will change fast as the games begin.

 

How long will Porcello pitch?? What lineup will Boston put out there?? Will the rain effect things??

 

I am worried boston will play us tough because they realize we are the biggest threat in the ALCS and they would rather knock us out right now.

[baseballsss]

I am worried boston will play us tough because they realize we are the biggest threat in the ALCS and they would rather knock us out right now.

 

Why are we a big threat in the ALC? Any other team has just as good of a chance than we do...

[Olerud363]

I am worried boston will play us tough because they realize we are the biggest threat in the ALCS and they would rather knock us out right now.

 

I don't know if we are the biggest threat but they definitely have incentive to make it as hard as possible for us. Especially if the wild card teams end up in a clusterf*** scenario where they have to all play hard on Sunday, Detroit plays Monday, and the other teams Tuesday, Wednesday, somehow... then Boston/Texas would get a wild card team with 4th starter... we might have the best 4th starter in that scenario.

[KevinGregg]

Why are we a big threat in the ALC? Any other team has just as good of a chance than we do...

 

Just looking at the run differentials of the possible teams Boston could end up facing in the ALCS:

 

TOR: +93

SEA: +59

DET: +28

BAL: +23

TEX: +11

 

 

Toronto is head and shoulders above the others, except possibly Seattle who we are still doing better than and who also have the worst shot of all 5 teams to make it to the ALCS.

 

We actually have the 5th best run differential in all of MLB

[Spanky99]

Stop, Olerud.

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

LOL, why does everyone get so mad at Olerud for posting about The Implosion? It's not like anything we say on this board has any effect on what happens on the field. Don't read it if you don't like it.

[thatoneguy]

LOL, why does everyone get so mad at Olerud for posting about The Implosion? It's not like anything we say on this board has any effect on what happens on the field. Don't read it if you don't like it.

 

It was really nice when you didn't post for awhile.

[RealAccountant]

Just looking at the run differentials of the possible teams Boston could end up facing in the ALCS:

 

TOR: +93

SEA: +59

DET: +28

BAL: +23

TEX: +11

 

 

Toronto is head and shoulders above the others, except possibly Seattle who we are still doing better than and who also have the worst shot of all 5 teams to make it to the ALCS.

 

We actually have the 5th best run differential in all of MLB

 

Run differential is meaningless when the manager is an idiot

[Jonn]

LOL, why does everyone get so mad at Olerud for posting about The Implosion? It's not like anything we say on this board has any effect on what happens on the field. Don't read it if you don't like it.

 

We didn't need another thread. My thread at the beginning of the implosion was fine.

[John_Havok]

LOL, why does everyone get so mad at Olerud for posting about The Implosion? It's not like anything we say on this board has any effect on what happens on the field. Don't read it if you don't like it.

 

How does one know they won't like it until they read it?

[Olerud363]

We didn't need another thread. My thread at the beginning of the implosion was fine.

 

Your thread was fine... This one was just to talk about the quickly changing odds... It was called explosion/implosion over the weekend.. It was both...

 

Unfortunately it looks like it will be the worst night possible... Sorry, this really sucks.., I feel awful

 

I don't mean to piss every one off... Like the rest of you I just want the jays to win... What an awful night....

 

I hope somehow they pull it out over the next two games... But playoff odds are now less than 50 I am guessing

[dineke]

at least gibby is gone if they miss the playoffs. silver linings.

[RealAccountant]

at least gibby is gone if they miss the playoffs. silver linings.

 

Why fire him now

 

Easier and better to fire him when we are in last place next June and they need to blame someone

[43211234]

The playoffs will be easy to make. They will win the last two games. Book it!

[STLJaysFan]

I would believe it would be better if you're already considering firing the manager, to do it before spring training, so the new manager and his staff has time to get affiliated with the players.

[Olerud363]

The playoffs will be easy to make. They will win the last two games. Book it!

 

Or maybe detroit loses a game?? I'm just sort of stunned here... the last time a good thing happened was Tuesday

 

Wednesday, Jays lose, Tigers win

Thursday Jays lose, Tigers rained out.

Friday Jays lose, Orioles Win, Tigers Win

 

I guess that is 6 bads in a row, hopefully something good happens tomorrow.

[canadiansportsjunkie]

The playoffs will be easy to make. They will win the last two games. Book it!

 

FINALLY! LETS GO JAYS. Red sox are a great team but hey we need to beat great teams or why hope for playoffs.

 

LETS GO JAYS! PLAYOFF BASEBALL IS NOW!

[Olerud363]

We didn't need another thread. My thread at the beginning of the implosion was fine.

 

This is the implosion/explosion thread which was intended to be used to cover both implosive and explosive scenarios... I thought there would be moments of both as the weekend unfolded

 

Red Sox Win, Orioles Win, Tigers Win -- thus far it has come up completely implosive

 

An implosion/explosion thread makes no sense without explosion... I swear to got there will still be one more explosion... by god there must be.

 

The 'End of Jays 2016' part was just to indicate the inevitable, the season will end in either days or weeks, hopefully, somehow, closer to weeks.

 

God help us all, God protect the children and make the world a better place, and don't bother with the Blue Jays, for better or worse they have to do it on their own.

[Krylian]

What a way to finish the regular season. Like I don't have enough stress in my life.

[STLJaysFan]

People shouldn't be like that Jimmy Fallon character in "Fever Pitch" where his life revolves around the winning and losing of a baseball game that he has no control over. I used to kind of be like that when I was in my teens and early 20's, but now I'm 35 and have my priorities more in perspective.

 

Sports are fun to follow, but it should NEVER alter your day-to-day life especially when you can't control the outcomes. Fans seem to care more about the results than the players who are involved who are getting paid either way. It's alright to feel like you're a part of something and to live vicariously through your favourite sports team's ups and downs, but always remember that stuff you can't control should not have too much emotion attached to it.

 

That's just part of growing up and realizing what's REALLY important in life, and what should just be considered pure entertainment only. At my age of 35, I'm older than most players in the league so I'm not going to idolize someone who's 10-15 years younger than me, no matter how much money they make, like I would when I was in my teens and had posters of my favourite players on my wall who were alot older than me.

 

Not to patronize anyone on here who could be a teenager or a twenty-something, but it's ok to be a fan of a sports team, just don't let it dictate how you go about your daily life.

[GD]

as one of those things, you made more David Ortiz PED posts in one GDT than posts I've made of any kind in a GDT this year

[STLJaysFan]

You must have been following the game on the GDT also if you know that. You can't tell me there's not something fishy going on with Ortiz's stats as a 40 year old ready to retire. It doesn't go with the normal decline of an athlete. And that's just not my opinion, I've read and heard that from several people.

 

I just want to see him tested this year. If he comes back clean, then good for him, if mlb knows he's juicing during his farewell tour but will turn their backs on it since he's a baseball icon for the beloved Red Sox and it would look bad for him to be caught cheating, then that's more big-market east-coast bias. And that's not sour grapes as someone told me, that's just using my eyeballs and my brain.

 

Say what you want about Jose Canseco, but I've read both of his books, and you wouldn't believe the s*** that baseball will sweep under the rug when it's in their best interest to do so. Afterall, it's a business foremost, like when they pretended to have no knowledge of the steroid use during the 1998 home run chase because of all the tickets they were selling. Same thing with Ortiz, it would look bad on baseball if it was found out he was juicing during his retirement season so mlb will just pretend nothing is going on.

 

I have no proof, but I would like to see proof that he's not on steroids. If Ortiz played in a different market, the suspicions would be talked about more.