Trade Osuna now, considering the reliever bubble

[Jimcanuck]

In hindsight, Jays should have brought up Danny Barnes prior to the deadline. Good numbers over a short stretch could have returned a top 10 pitching prospect in this market.

 

Jays scouts should be scouring the minor leagues for young starting pitchers with blazing fastballs but limited secondaries. Guys who can be molded into effective RPs. Corner this market.

 

Heck, even Rule 5 pickup Biagini could return something useful in this market.

[Olerud363]

Wow... talk about over simplifying something. For every Devon Travis there's a bunch of Travis Sniders.

 

I don't mean to oversimplify it... just saying minor stats translated properly give you a good indication of how a player will hit in the majors... then there is a delta around the translation.

 

The problem isn't that there is something magical about major league stats... it is that most minor leaguers aren't that good.

 

Even the highly rated outfielder the Yankees got (Frazier) is like a .280 .350 .450 minor hitter or something... that is a .250 .320 .400 major league hitter (Travis Snider territory)

 

So the Yankees are counting on him getting better, and he might... but right now he is not that good when you translate the stats.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't mean to oversimplify it... just saying minor stats translated properly give you a good indication of how a player will hit in the majors... then there is a delta around the translation.

 

The problem isn't that there is something magical about major league stats... it is that most minor leaguers aren't that good.

 

Even the highly rated outfielder the Yankees got (Frazier) is like a .280 .350 .450 minor hitter or something... that is a .250 .320 .400 major league hitter (Travis Snider territory)

 

So the Yankees are counting on him getting better, and he might... but right now he is not that good when you translate the stats.

 

How's Frazier D?

 

What's his K rate? His BABIP? How fast has he moved through MiLB? His bat speed? Length of swing? Can he hit off speed?

 

You can't stat scout minor leaguers.

[Governator]

I don't mean to oversimplify it... just saying minor stats translated properly give you a good indication of how a player will hit in the majors... then there is a delta around the translation.

 

The problem isn't that there is something magical about major league stats... it is that most minor leaguers aren't that good.

 

Even the highly rated outfielder the Yankees got (Frazier) is like a .280 .350 .450 minor hitter or something... that is a .250 .320 .400 major league hitter (Travis Snider territory)

 

So the Yankees are counting on him getting better, and he might... but right now he is not that good when you translate the stats.

 

 

Scouting reports still matter..

 

Regardless, why is Lil Loopers post so stupid if most minor leaguers aren't that good? Just because he said most fail? He's not far off and really the point to his post was that trading Osuna in hopes that the returning prospects (either collectively or individually) produce better value seems like a very high risk, low reward move. Consider the state of our BP and the fact that we have far better trade options.

 

Different players have different values to teams, we moved Gose for Travis as a lateral move to fill a hole. If a team offered us minor league prospects for Gose, front office might have agreed to it assuming they felt he was a AAAA type player going forward. Whereas it wouldn't be smart to trade Osuna for prospects because we know he's already very valuable to this team, we have few options behind him and we have a surplus of veteran talent that could give us an equal haul. If they really wanted to explore that option, it would be in the offseason after we win our championship and the veterans move on and we get our compensation picks. There is no need or rush to move Osuna unless they plan to rebuild after this season imo.

[Olerud363]

How's Frazier D?

 

What's his K rate? His BABIP? How fast has he moved through MiLB? His bat speed? Length of swing? Can he hit off speed?

 

You can't stat scout minor leaguers.

 

D - could theoretically show up in stats -- at this point I'm not aware that they collect could Defensive stats on minor leagers. I'm fine with evaluating D using scouting.

 

The rest --

 

K rate - is a stat

BABIP - is a stat

 

How fast has he moved?? That isn't relevant beyond the other stats. Travis Snider moved fast.

 

Even if it is relevant it is still a stat --

 

Bat speed? Length of swing?? Can he hit off speed?? That will show up in the other stats.

[Olerud363]

Scouting reports still matter..

 

Regardless, why is Lil Loopers post so stupid if most minor leaguers aren't that good? Just because he said most fail? He's not far off and really the point to his post was that trading Osuna in hopes that the returning prospects (either collectively or individually) produce better value seems like a very high risk, low reward move. Consider the state of our BP and the fact that we have far better trade options.

 

Different players have different values to teams, we moved Gose for Travis as a lateral move to fill a hole. If a team offered us minor league prospects for Gose, front office might have agreed to it assuming they felt he was a AAAA type player going forward. Whereas it wouldn't be smart to trade Osuna for prospects because we know he's already very valuable to this team, we have few options behind him and we have a surplus of veteran talent that could give us an equal haul. If they really wanted to explore that option, it would be in the offseason after we win our championship and the veterans move on and we get our compensation picks. There is no need or rush to move Osuna unless they plan to rebuild after this season imo.

 

I was just annoyed by the "generalization" that prospects fail, so you need to go after major league players. Major players fail as well.

 

Aaron Hill failed after having essentially one great season, Vernon Wells failed after being signed to the biggest contract in franchise history, Adam Line had horrible seasons after a season as a great young hitter.

 

Josh Johnson failed, Kyle Drabek failed, one a minor leager, one a major leager.

 

Sergio Santos failed, after being Osuna for a couple of years.

[Governator]

I was just annoyed by the "generalization" that prospects fail, so you need to go after major league players. Major players fail as well.

 

Aaron Hill failed after having essentially one great season, Vernon Wells failed after being signed to the biggest contract in franchise history, Adam Line had horrible seasons after a season as a great young hitter.

 

Josh Johnson failed, Kyle Drabek failed, one a minor leager, one a major leager.

 

Sergio Santos failed, after being Osuna for a couple of years.

 

 

Those guys all busted from injuries, in fact all of them had Tommy John and Santos was a failed prospect long before a transition to reliever in his late 20s, they aren't comparable. Aaron Hill was not a bust... inconsistent seasons with the bat but not a bust.

[Jimcanuck]

D - could theoretically show up in stats -- at this point I'm not aware that they collect could Defensive stats on minor leagers. I'm fine with evaluating D using scouting.

 

The rest --

 

K rate - is a stat

BABIP - is a stat

 

How fast has he moved?? That isn't relevant beyond the other stats. Travis Snider moved fast.

 

Even if it is relevant it is still a stat --

 

Bat speed? Length of swing?? Can he hit off speed?? That will show up in the other stats.

 

No they won't. You can put together good minor league stats despite having flaws that will be exposed at MLB level, the kind of flaws that scouts will pick up on.

[Olerud363]

Those guys all busted from injuries, in fact all of them had Tommy John and Santos was a failed prospect long before a transition to reliever in his late 20s, they aren't comparable. Aaron Hill was not a bust... inconsistent seasons with the bat but not a bust.

 

That's the entire point. Players are inconstent and get injured, major league stats are no more predictive then minor league stats (translated properly).

[Olerud363]

No they won't. You can put together good minor league stats despite having flaws that will be exposed at MLB level, the kind of flaws that scouts will pick up on.

 

No. If you have these flaws your minor stats will be different then players without the flaws (if averaged over large number of players and seasons).

 

The flawed players will hit .290 .350 .500 in high minors with big k rates.

 

The un-flawed players will hit .320 .390 .520 in high minors with lower k rates.

 

I don't mean they will exactly hit like that. But if you take large groups of the flawed, and unflawed players, and put them all in the international league

 

The differences will show up in the stats.

[Jimcanuck]

No. If you have these flaws your minor stats will be different then players without the flaws (if averaged over large number of players and seasons).

 

The flawed players will hit .290 .350 .500 in high minors with big k rates.

 

The un-flawed players will hit .320 .390 .520 in high minors with lower k rates.

 

I don't mean they will exactly hit like that. But if you take large groups of the flawed, and unflawed players, and put them all in the international league

 

The differences will show up in the stats.

 

Jays should get rid of all the scouts then. If what you are saying is true, Sanchez should be flipping burgers.

[Olerud363]

Like take Randy Ruiz and compare him to a seriously good hitter like David Ortiz or Carlos Delgado or Joey Votto and look what they all did in the international league...

 

Randy Ruiz at first glance looks almost as good. He is like .300 .360 .500 or something

 

His strike out to walk ratio is much worse

 

His rate stats are a bit worse then the real good hitters. Even after having years and years in the international league and spending his peak seasons there. It shows up in the stats.

[Olerud363]

Jays should get rid of all the scouts then. If what you are saying is true, Sanchez should be flipping burgers.

 

Thats an over-reaction. There should be a happy medium.

 

I think for college players, and young players there isn't proper sample size, league translations, and defensive stats, for stats-only to work.

[Governator]

That's the entire point. Players are inconstent and get injured, major league stats are no more predictive then minor league stats (translated properly).

 

Fails come in a variety of ways yes but prospects have a lot of obstacles to get through for a chance at the show let alone proving they can stay. Again, veterans for prospects all day but MLB sophomores who show elite performance is what every team wants out of their prospects. Trading that talent to restart the process is counter-productive unless you are overhauling the team.

[Olerud363]

Jays should get rid of all the scouts then. If what you are saying is true, Sanchez should be flipping burgers.

 

And that isn't my point. I'm not saying there isn't change in performance level.

 

Aaron Sanchez sucked then became good

Jake Arrieta sucked then became good

 

There was nothing magical about the fact that one sucked in the minors and one in the majors.

 

There is no guarentee either won't start sucking again.

 

There is nothing magical about major leage stats except sample size (more years, richer collection of stats, especially d-stats I think).

[Olerud363]

Fails come in a variety of ways yes but prospects have a lot of obstacles to get through for a chance at the show let alone proving they can stay. Again, veterans for prospects all day but MLB sophomores who show elite performance is what every team wants out of their prospects. Trading that talent to restart the process is counter-productive unless you are overhauling the team.

 

I agree, especially because the prospects that are traded are not the ones that are performing really well.

 

When was the last time a real can't miss prospect was traded?? I am probably forgetting someone.

 

Also.. out of all the prospects we got the last few years, the best so far (per 162 games) is Devon Travis... and that could totally be seen just using average and k-rate.

 

That bubble could still burst, hopefully not.

[TheHurl]

How's Frazier D?

 

What's his K rate? His BABIP? How fast has he moved through MiLB? His bat speed? Length of swing? Can he hit off speed?

 

You can't stat scout minor leaguers.

 

I'd say that Frazier is far from the a stat scouting darling. He's way more of a traditional darling. He's got above average speed and runs great routes to balls. Despite being a high effort guy, he's been stuck with a "likely a corner OF" label (mostly established when Zimmer played CF when they were teammates). He is said to have elite bat speed and he's a student of the game and extremely coachable according to reports. He's made great adjustments with his hands while decreasing his K-rates and has shown himself to be a guy that can work counts. He's got a profile I really like and I think his skills carry over well. Reminds me a lot of a guy I was following a lot in the early 2000's. Jayson Werth.

[TheHurl]

No they won't. You can put together good minor league stats despite having flaws that will be exposed at MLB level, the kind of flaws that scouts will pick up on.

 

90% of guys that do nothing but hit in the minors who fail it's purely one thing...they can't lay off of breaking stuff as 3 of every 5 pitchers they face in the minors can't throw breaking stuff. Which is why when stat scouting I've always said about minor league hitters "look for improving K-Rates as a tell of how well players adjust". You make it sound like these prospects have never been seen by a scout. Yes this board stat scouts...and make commentary about trades but it many cases we know that these players have hit the eye test of the scouts already. No one is suggesting that the Jays trade Osuna for a 30th rounder 19 year old that went crazy for 3 months in a split season. They are suggesting that the Jays trade Osuna for a package that includes at least one major league ready prospect. Again I remind everyone that the Jays have half a team under control for next year...if you can trade 1 piece to get 2 pieces it might make sense.

[CJ-Freeway]

No. We have a shot at the ALCS this year, no f***ing way you trade your best relief pitcher.

[Olerud363]

I'd say that Frazier is far from the a stat scouting darling. He's way more of a traditional darling. He's got above average speed and runs great routes to balls. Despite being a high effort guy, he's been stuck with a "likely a corner OF" label (mostly established when Zimmer played CF when they were teammates). He is said to have elite bat speed and he's a student of the game and extremely coachable according to reports. He's made great adjustments with his hands while decreasing his K-rates and has shown himself to be a guy that can work counts. He's got a profile I really like and I think his skills carry over well. Reminds me a lot of a guy I was following a lot in the early 2000's. Jayson Werth.

 

What part of this story isn't in the stats?? His strike-outs rates have gone down as he's progressed, he's been young for his levels. He takes some walks. Has a bit of power.

 

He's 13-4 as a base stealer this year, which indicates a bit of speed. Looking at his defensive record he's played a lot of games in center field.

 

Is there a clint frazier clone?? A guy with the same stats, not only traditional stats, but k/bb ratio, same age at same levels, played same positions (outfielder with a lot games in center), same base running... but with horrible scouting reports??

[TheHurl]

Olerud has a great way of arguing with people that are somewhat agreeing with him.

[L54]

Well the argument that they should listen should be applied to literally every player.

 

It's tough to envision a scenario where an Osuna trade makes the team better this year, which is actually pretty important when you consider this looks like their last legit kick at the can. I would be all for moving him in the offseason for a haul, I just don't see the sense doing it at the deadline.

[Captain Adama]

How's Frazier D?

 

What's his K rate? His BABIP? How fast has he moved through MiLB? His bat speed? Length of swing? Can he hit off speed?

 

You can't stat scout minor leaguers.

 

In the lower levels this is true. Howevery once you start hitting high A and AA. You better start performing, tools be damned.

[Cyborg]

The chances that scouts pick up a flaw that stats dont, or vice versa, is very low. Jim is giving scouts wayyyyyy too much credit.

[Jimcanuck]

The chances that scouts pick up a flaw that stats dont, or vice versa, is very low. Jim is giving scouts wayyyyyy too much credit.

 

No I'm not. I'm just repudiating Olerud's position that scouting has little value, that stats can tell the story. Scouts are quite valuable in picking up the information stats don't provide.

[Olerud363]

No I'm not. I'm just repudiating Olerud's position that scouting has little value, that stats can tell the story. Scouts are quite valuable in picking up the information stats don't provide.

 

Jimcanuck... I am not saying scouting has no value...

 

What you are implying is ridiculous. You say Aaron Sanchez would be flipping burgers if it wasn't for the scouts.

 

No he wouldn't be. He would of spent most of 2015 in the minors, as his talent showed he probably would of been called up towards the end of last year to help the bullpen... kind of like what actually happened.

 

If the stats guys had their way Sanchez wouldn't of had 10-15 s***** starts in the majors last year. However he would eventually been called up as the numbers would reflect his development.

 

Unless you are implying that Sanchez would not of ever done well in the minors... that he was capable of (atleast) half a good season in the majors, but would not of dominated minor league hitters.

 

That's probably ********.

[vilifyingforce]

There were stats guys on this board saying Sanchez should be pitching the 6th inning because his advanced stats in his limited time in the majors (when he should have been in the minors) were bad. The fact they were giving weight to any of his MLB stats was horrifying. The fact they couldn't see that MLB hitters could not hit his f***ing fastball was also horrifying. Do we really want to live in that world?

 

How does your front office get a leg up when nowadays every FO is looking at these advanced stats. The pendulum has almost swung in the opposite direction now.

 

Is it really that hard to use stats and your eyes in conjunction.

 

Example: Wow this guy has a 4.50 FIP, wonder why that is? Oh, he throws 87 mph centre cut meat.

 

Wow this guy has a 4.50 FIP, wonder why that is? Oh, he throws 97 mph bowling balls but can't hit the zone.

 

Which guy would I rather have, hmmm tough question.

 

I'll take Estrada.

[John_Havok]

Jimcanuck... I am not saying scouting has no value...

 

What you are implying is ridiculous. You say Aaron Sanchez would be flipping burgers if it wasn't for the scouts.

 

No he wouldn't be. He would of spent most of 2015 in the minors, as his talent showed he probably would of been called up towards the end of last year to help the bullpen... kind of like what actually happened.

 

If the stats guys had their way Sanchez wouldn't of had 10-15 s***** starts in the majors last year. However he would eventually been called up as the numbers would reflect his development.

 

Unless you are implying that Sanchez would not of ever done well in the minors... that he was capable of (atleast) half a good season in the majors, but would not of dominated minor league hitters.

 

That's probably ********.

 

I agree with all your ponts, but subtracted for everytime OF was used when you should HAVE used the word HAVE instead.

[Grant77]

The chances that scouts pick up a flaw that stats dont, or vice versa, is very low. Jim is giving scouts wayyyyyy too much credit.

 

That's such a horseshit statement that has been proven wrong hundreds of times. It's unbelievable that people can be so full of themselves. Who needs scouts? Batista, Encarnacion, and Donaldson have never done anything in this league.

[Cyborg]

That's such a horseshit statement that has been proven wrong hundreds of times. It's unbelievable that people can be so full of themselves. Who needs scouts? Batista, Encarnacion, and Donaldson have never done anything in this league.

 

What do those 3 have to do with scouting? Fringe major leaguers that had talent changes are due to scouting? Its coaching if anything.