Should we extend Dickey?

[Statman]

You literally have not said what premise it is you disagreed with other than a vague "lol you're dumn Dickey suxxx". I'll make it easy for you and lay out the five possible areas for disagreement:

 

1. knuckleballers tend to post ERAs lower than their FIPs

2. RA Dickey is a knuckleballer

3. RA Dickey has posted an ERA lower than his FIP for 7 consecutive seasons

4. fact #3 is not likely attributable to luck given that facts 1 and 2 are true

5. because of all of this FIP-based WAR will undervalue his contributions

 

I expect no response, because you've ducked every other time I've invited you do do more than spew incoherent s*** all over the place.

 

You are a moron as I said several times already. My whole point calling your post horse s*** several times is that I disagree with every single thing about it being used as a projection for him at this point in the season and career. There are too many red flags that you fail to see to give proper context to make a valid projection on him. This is why your projection has fallen flat on its face.

 

I'll say it again. The fact that you can't see why your post is horse s*** shows how truly clueless you really are.

[BTS]

You are a moron as I said several times already. My whole point calling your post horse s*** several times is that I disagree with every single thing about it being used as a projection for him at this point in the season and career. There are too many red flags that you fail to see to give proper context to make a valid projection on him. This is why your projection has fallen flat on its face.

 

I'll say it again. The fact that you can't see why your post is horse s*** shows how truly clueless you really are.

 

OK, good talk.

 

The debate started as a discussion as to why RA-9 WAR matters more than fWAR for Dickey. You called the entire explanation a load of s***. You offered no actual reason why you thought it was a load of s***. Now you're bumping the debate months later, apparently very upset, even though you've never actually taken the time to have what could have been a non-confrontational discussion.

[Effit]

The title of this thread still makes me lol.

[jays_fever]

This whole thread is pointless as no one in their right mind actually enjoys watching Dickey pitch regardless of the outcome.

[RealAccountant]

Dickey can probably eek out another year or so in the national league or a bigger park. I bet he can probably sustain a 3.5 ERA in Oakland

[Plat]

Hellll to the NO

[FrozenRopes]

Extend this side show? No thanks. I am one of the many who didnt even like him in his cy young season.

[JoeCarter]

I've made peace with the fact that there will simply NEVER be any reasonable discussion to be had between Dickey-haters and Dickey-defenders. The problem is that to some, he will simply ALWAYS be the guy for whom we traded away Synd + D'Arnaud. They might as well emblazon the back of his jersey with Not Noah Syndergaard. Think of it this way: had we signed him as a free agent after 2013 for the $41M / 4 years that we're paying him, fans would be far more willing to see him for what he actually is: a great bargain cost-wise and one of the most valuable #5 starters in all of baseball.

 

Even if you don't understand the FIP vs RA-9 debate (and it's obvious that most don't), go ahead and use the LESS-favorable-to-Dickey Fangraphs/FIP WAR calcs: he'll still end up delivering about 6.3 WAR over 4yrs/$41M. That's ~$6.5M / WAR, well below the approx going rate of of $8M / WAR.

 

I've found that "What do you think of Dickey?" is the quickest and most reliable route to uncovering whether a person has any idea what he's talking about. There's nothing to even debate. Which is why Dickey-haters are so quick to ramp up the DICKEY SUCKS SO HARD AND UR A RETARD FOR SAYING OTHERWISE! rhetoric. I think some part of their brain realizes that the statistics the've tried so hard to resist learning make minced meat of their argument, so their only chance at saving face is to try and win with condescension + volume.

[Vialotor]

I've made peace with the fact that there will simply NEVER be any reasonable discussion to be had between Dickey-haters and Dickey-defenders. The problem is that to some, he will simply ALWAYS be the guy for whom we traded away Synd + D'Arnaud. They might as well emblazon the back of his jersey with Not Noah Syndergaard. Think of it this way: had we signed him as a free agent after 2013 for the $41M / 4 years that we're paying him, fans would be far more willing to see him for what he actually is: a great bargain cost-wise and one of the most valuable #5 starters in all of baseball.

 

Even if you don't understand the FIP vs RA-9 debate (and it's obvious that most don't), go ahead and use the LESS-favorable-to-Dickey Fangraphs/FIP WAR calcs: he'll still end up delivering about 6.3 WAR over 4yrs/$41M. That's ~$6.5M / WAR, well below the approx going rate of of $8M / WAR.

 

I've found that "What do you think of Dickey?" is the quickest and most reliable route to uncovering whether a person has any idea what he's talking about. There's nothing to even debate. Which is why Dickey-haters are so quick to ramp up the DICKEY SUCKS SO HARD AND UR A RETARD FOR SAYING OTHERWISE! rhetoric. I think some part of their brain realizes that the statistics the've tried so hard to resist learning make minced meat of their argument, so their only chance at saving face is to try and win with condescension + volume.

 

Problem with your post is you are talking the last 4 years, Dickey has not been good this year at all and that is not debatable, then you add we need thole to catch him who is basically the same as having the pitcher bat, that puts a worse team on the field. Last 2 years Dickey has been good for us especially in the second half, very good even, he has been way worse this year, and that is what people are focusing on now. He has been bad. He is not even eating innings for us now. We are in a tight race, and cannot afford to have Dickey and Thole being trot out there every fifth day this year, especially against teams like Boston.

[BTS]

Dickey is having his worst season as a Jay, but he's had at least some utility: he's still been worth about a win. He's actually been better than what most teams have thrown out as their 5th starter, even though it doesn't look pretty. He's probably not going to get 10-12M again this offseason, but there's still a price point at which it makes baseball sense to bring him back. What is that price? 4-5M + no personal catcher to pitch in a long relief/6th starter role?

 

I'd probably decline just because I hate watching him and even the possibility of seeing Josh Thole back makes me sick, but you can easily make a baseball case for bringing him back.

[Dr. Dinger]

I never want to see this motherf***er again.

[RealAccountant]

I never want to see this motherf***er again.

 

Honestly it's f***ing done with him

[Terminator]

Extend Dickey.

 

His performance has been worse this season but all that means is that he'll command less. He's still been useful and the "Dickey Effect" means he's worth more than meets the eye. Bring him back as the long man.

[Governator]

Extend Dickey.

 

His performance has been worse this season but all that means is that he'll command less. He's still been useful and the "Dickey Effect" means he's worth more than meets the eye. Bring him back as the long man.

 

 

I would rather just give Feldman an extension for that role and plus we already have Liriano for next year. No more pampering a 5th string starter.

[Orgfiller]

Extend Dickey.

 

His performance has been worse this season but all that means is that he'll command less. He's still been useful and the "Dickey Effect" means he's worth more than meets the eye. Bring him back as the long man.

 

I understand extending him from a baseball ops POV, but omg he's the worst to watch and his f***ing below replacement personal catcher that he brings with him makes it that much worse. Dickey is one of the only players I will irrationally argue against.

 

Please, end the suffering.

[TheHurl]

If he doesn't retire I could see Tampa signing him.

[Terminator]

If he doesn't retire I could see Tampa signing him.

 

Oh for sure. The guy is as close to automatically producing surplus value as anybody in the game.

[FrozenRopes]

People really want to resign him? You could literally run any other starter in the organization out there and get better results. He is getting paid as a #2 starter and likely gets shelled in AAA. He is like golf for some of you, one good outing makes you forget about all the terrible rounds and that you shouldn't be golfing.

[BlueJays]

Bring Dickey back? Goddamn. I didnt know theres a masochist in this forum.

[BTS]

People really want to resign him? You could literally run any other starter in the organization out there and get better results. He is getting paid as a #2 starter and likely gets shelled in AAA. He is like golf for some of you, one good outing makes you forget about all the terrible rounds and that you shouldn't be golfing.

 

None of this is actually true though. He's objectively, inarguably, been a quality 5th starter this year even though it might not feel like it. I don't want him back because I hate watching him, but he's above replacement-level.

[Governator]

None of this is actually true though. He's objectively, inarguably, been a quality 5th starter this year even though it might not feel like it. I don't want him back because I hate watching him, but he's above replacement-level.

 

5th string starter with ace benefits.

[BTS]

5th string starter with ace benefits.

 

Yeah, Thole really has to go.

[jaysblue]

5th string starter with ace benefits.

 

I don't mind Dickey as a back-end rotation starter, though he gets treated like he's still an ace which he isn't. Thole shouldn't be anywhere near this team in 2017, whether Dickey is back or not.

[Governator]

I don't mind Dickey as a back-end rotation starter, though he gets treated like he's still an ace which he isn't. Thole shouldn't be anywhere near this team in 2017, whether Dickey is back or not.

 

Honestly if Martin doesn't want to catch him, I wouldn't even enter negotiations with Dickey at all. It's really that simple in my mind, cater to your #1 catcher not your #5 starter. We have other options in Liriano and hopefully they re-sign Feldman who can return similar results imo.

[fatcowxlive]

None of this is actually true though. He's objectively, inarguably, been a quality 5th starter this year even though it might not feel like it. I don't want him back because I hate watching him, but he's above replacement-level.

 

I want to argue that Dickey is less valuable because of Thole. I really do. Because we've had 3 different starting catchers since he's been here (Arencibia, Navarro and Martin) and he's been (almost) exclusively caught by Thole during these past 4 years. This year Dickey's fWAR or RA9-WAR, whatever metric you want to rate Dickey by, has him slated at 0.8-1.0 WAR. HOWEVER, fielding him means also that you are always fielding a -0.6 WAR player as well. This has to be taken into account. I'd much rather have Liriano, who's projected to have around 0.5 fWAR this year as a Jay if he were to continue to start, because it allows us to prevent employing a player who really shouldn't be on any MLB roster.

[Cyborg]

Well Thole > Navarro at least.

[BTS]

I want to argue that Dickey is less valuable because of Thole. I really do. Because we've had 3 different starting catchers since he's been here (Arencibia, Navarro and Martin) and he's been (almost) exclusively caught by Thole during these past 4 years. This year Dickey's fWAR or RA9-WAR, whatever metric you want to rate Dickey by, has him slated at 0.8-1.0 WAR. HOWEVER, fielding him means also that you are always fielding a -0.6 WAR player as well. This has to be taken into account. I'd much rather have Liriano, who's projected to have around 0.5 fWAR this year as a Jay if he were to continue to start, because it allows us to prevent employing a player who really shouldn't be on any MLB roster.

 

There's the negative contributions of Thole, but also the positives of the Dickey effect. I think RA-9 WAR does a pretty good job capturing the value of him and his caddie.

 

But I wouldn't bring him back if it meant Thole comes along for the ride. You can't have a personal catcher for your swingman when that personal catcher has no other utility.

[fatcowxlive]

There's the negative contributions of Thole, but also the positives of the Dickey effect. I think RA-9 WAR does a pretty good job capturing the value of him and his caddie.

 

Wait what? How does RA9 take into account Thole? Do you mean his pitch-framing or something? Because I thought I saw somewhere that his pitch-framing was also subpar this year

[fatcowxlive]

If he doesn't retire I could see Tampa signing him.

 

Oh man I can't wait to see Donaldson just absolutely tee off on this gas can. I'd resign Edwin just to see him hit bombs off Dickey in the Rogers Center lol

 

Honestly I see an NL West team signing him, maybe the Padres. Big ballpark and it's a low-cost signing. Plus they seem to love signing our old pitchers (Johnson, Morrow)

[BTS]

Wait what? How does RA9 take into account Thole? Do you mean his pitch-framing or something? Because I thought I saw somewhere that his pitch-framing was also subpar this year

 

I just mean you can basically just toss Thole and the Dickey effect aside and look at his RA-9 WAR.