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Should we extend Dickey?

Dr. Dinger

By Dr. Dinger
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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RealAccountant Dunedin Blue Jays

RealAccountant

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Yes, he will. He's over 1 now, has 2.5 months left, and usually finishes strong. He's a virtual lock to be in the 1.5 to 2.5 range.

 

Are you lost? He was at 0.4 going into today probably replacement End of day

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Statman FCL Blue Jays

Statman

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Yes, he will. He's over 1 now, has 2.5 months left, and usually finishes strong. He's a virtual lock to be in the 1.5 to 2.5 range.

 

Wow, just wow.

 

You have to be trolling here.

 

Dickey currently has a 0.4fWAR and will probably have 0.3 fWAR after today.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Wow, just wow.

 

You have to be trolling here.

 

Dickey currently has a 0.4fWAR and will probably have 0.3 fWAR after today.

 

1.3 RA9... a regular measure for consistent FIP busters.

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Wow, just wow.

 

You have to be trolling here.

 

Dickey currently has a 0.4fWAR and will probably have 0.3 fWAR after today.

 

Congrats, you're posting on the level of Real Accountant, and he is legitimately insane.

Statman FCL Blue Jays

Statman

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Congrats, you're posting on the level of Real Accountant, and he is legitimately insane.

 

No. Saying Dickey has been worth 1 win so far is legitimately insane.

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
No. Saying Dickey has been worth 1 win so far is legitimately insane.

 

On the slim chance you're not just trolling me:

 

Dickey, since the start of 2010 (when he started as a full-time knuckleballer) has a 3.52 ERA, a 4.13 FIP, and a 4.06 xFIP over almost 1400 innings. He's never had an ERA within even a third of a run of his FIP. We can be reasonably sure that this isn't just luck, because knuckleball pitchers have a history of busting FIP (and he's also an excellent defender, which helps pitchers beat DIPS).

 

Fangraphs WAR is based on FIP. Because of the above, it isn't a good metric for approximating Dickey's value. It's far better to use RA-9 WAR, which looks at actual run prevention, because Dickey's DIPS will undervalue him, and are almost meaningless.

 

He's between 2.6 and 3.4 RA-9 WAR every year since joining the team. He's at 1.3 this year, and will almost certainly finish at around 2. Using the best information we have, he's a 2-win pitcher.

fatcowxlive GOAT

fatcowxlive

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
On the slim chance you're not just trolling me:

 

Dickey, since the start of 2010 (when he started as a full-time knuckleballer) has a 3.52 ERA, a 4.13 FIP, and a 4.06 xFIP over almost 1400 innings. He's never had an ERA within even a third of a run of his FIP. We can be reasonably sure that this isn't just luck, because knuckleball pitchers have a history of busting FIP (and he's also an excellent defender, which helps pitchers beat DIPS).

 

Fangraphs WAR is based on FIP. Because of the above, it isn't a good metric for approximating Dickey's value. It's far better to use RA-9 WAR, which looks at actual run prevention, because Dickey's DIPS will undervalue him, and are almost meaningless.

 

He's between 2.6 and 3.4 RA-9 WAR every year since joining the team. He's at 1.3 this year, and will almost certainly finish at around 2. Using the best information we have, he's a 2-win pitcher.

 

When can we start considering Estrada a FIP buster as well?

Statman FCL Blue Jays

Statman

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
On the slim chance you're not just trolling me:

 

Dickey, since the start of 2010 (when he started as a full-time knuckleballer) has a 3.52 ERA, a 4.13 FIP, and a 4.06 xFIP over almost 1400 innings. He's never had an ERA within even a third of a run of his FIP. We can be reasonably sure that this isn't just luck, because knuckleball pitchers have a history of busting FIP (and he's also an excellent defender, which helps pitchers beat DIPS).

 

Fangraphs WAR is based on FIP. Because of the above, it isn't a good metric for approximating Dickey's value. It's far better to use RA-9 WAR, which looks at actual run prevention, because Dickey's DIPS will undervalue him, and are almost meaningless.

He's between 2.6 and 3.4 RA-9 WAR every year since joining the team. He's at 1.3 this year, and will almost certainly finish at around 2. Using the best information we have, he's a 2-win pitcher.

 

This is the biggest load of s*** I have heard all day.

BTS GOAT

BTS

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
This is the biggest load of s*** I have heard all day.

 

I knew I shouldn't have taken the time.

fatcowxlive GOAT

fatcowxlive

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Now!

 

Cool!! Taking a look at his RA-9 he posted a 4.5 mark and he's above 3 so far this season. Fantastic contract we have if he keeps it up

Cyborg FCL Blue Jays

Cyborg

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Cool!! Taking a look at his RA-9 he posted a 4.5 mark and he's above 3 so far this season. Fantastic contract we have if he keeps it up

In reality there is no point where you start using one or the other, it's some of each one. Whether it is 95% FIP and 5% RA9 or 50/50, you should still use both numbers.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
In reality there is no point where you start using one or the other, it's some of each one. Whether it is 95% FIP and 5% RA9 or 50/50, you should still use both numbers.

 

We're not Cyborg's though?

Captain Adama FCL Blue Jays

Captain Adama

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
When can we start considering Estrada a FIP buster as well?

 

We can already, since pitchers with excellent changeups historically tend to beat DIPS. Also, xFIP tends to hate him as well because it tends to hate flyball pitchers (assuming that they give up a lot more home runs than they usually do) Marco doesn't give up many home runs (relative to his flyball rate.)

glory Vancouver Canadians

glory

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Since this thread was created, Dickey has allowed 17 earned runs, 9 walks, and 6 home runs in 14.2 innings.

 

To answer the title of this thread, let's not.

Daniel Labude Toronto Blue Jays

Daniel Labude

Jays Centre Contributor
Posted
Posted
Don't let a couple of starts change your mind. Just means we have a little better leverage now. Extend Dickey!

 

He would be great AAA depth...minor league extension is coming soon...

rancher Prep Ball

rancher

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Since Dickey is nearing retirement, wouldn't it be better to shop him now and get something in return? It would also make room for another catcher to come on board and share the load with Martin who may play better with more rest.
gbill2004 FCL Blue Jays

gbill2004

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Since Dickey is nearing retirement, wouldn't it be better to shop him now and get something in return? It would also make room for another catcher to come on board and share the load with Martin who may play better with more rest.

 

I'd trade him because he sucks anus!

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