Fangraphs Trade Value Thread

[John_Havok]

Everbyear, fangraphs puts out a lit if the players they feel have the most trade value, based on a variety of factors.

 

I saw someone in another thread guess Aaron Sanchez would be in the 40-50 range.

 

Well here are the 41-50

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-41-to-50/

 

Sanchez actually made the honorable mention list, just falling short in terms of track record.

 

Track Record Just A Bit Short

Marcell Ozuna, OF, Miami

Aledmys Diaz, SS, St. Louis

Wil Myers, 1B, San Diego

Stephen Piscotty, OF, St. Louis

Willson Contreras, C/OF, Chicago

Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto

Michael Fulmer, SP, Detroit

Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco

 

All five of these young hitters (plus the Blue Jays and Tigers emerging starters) are having excellent seasons, and if we just accepted that what they’ve done in the first half of 2016 is their new established level of performance, they’d all easily belong. But each has some history that makes it wise to not quite yet accept that this is what they’ll do going forward, and in the case of Ozuna and Myers, they churned through some of their service time getting to this point, so any team trading for them would be acquiring a guy a bit closer to free agency than some other breakout stars of 2016. Belt is a different case than the rest, but his back drop in strikeout rate is still a recent development, and he’ll need to sustain that for a bit longer to crack the top 50, given his age.

[Cyborg]

Stroman and Pillar were also honorable mentions.

[Stangstag]

Stroman and Pillar were also honorable mentions.

 

I'm surprised Pillar was close

[burlingtonbandit]

Stroman and Pillar were on those lists as well.

 

Have to think Donaldson will be the only Blue Jay on it and he's going to be in the 12-20 range.

[Orgfiller]

I like how he talks about lack of track record for guys like Matz and Aaron Nola, but says that he definitely would have included Joe Ross had he not gotten injured, except that Ross is not as good as the other two starters and actually projects worse. I guess he argued that since Matz is two years older then Ross is more valuable, which, um, okay I guess, but then what is the reasoning for Nola, a higher ERA?

 

And then there's the fact that he included two pitching prospects in his top 50, and one of them wasn't Julio Urias (meaning he will have a better ranking, but this I could understand).

[GreekFatAss]

I hope Pillar does hold that kind of value around the league. I would love to flip him for some offense in the offseason since his value is a ticking time bomb.

[Orgfiller]

I hope Pillar does hold that kind of value around the league. I would love to flip him for some offense in the offseason since his value is a ticking time bomb.

 

Well if you read the honourable mentions post, Dave Cameron argues exactly the opposite, which is why players like Pillar and Kiermaier were both excluded. We don't really know if the league values elite defense on the same level as equivalent hitting.

[BTS]

Well if you read the honourable mentions post, Dave Cameron argues exactly the opposite, which is why players like Pillar and Kiermaier were both excluded. We don't really know if the league values elite defense on the same level as equivalent hitting.

 

They don't seem to, probably because defense is the first thing to go. Pillar is 28 next year, which is an age where a lot of players' legs start to go. I doubt he has huge trade value, so you keep him and enjoy the CF defense until his legs wear down, then let him go.

[Orgfiller]

They don't seem to, probably because defense is the first thing to go. Pillar is 28 next year, which is an age where a lot of players' legs start to go. I doubt he has huge trade value, so you keep him and enjoy the CF defense until his legs wear down, then let him go.

 

Yeah I actually agree with the assessment about defense, it declines faster, it's harder to measure, and because it's harder to measure it can have huge fluctuations from season to season so it's difficult to project.

[burlingtonbandit]

They don't seem to, probably because defense is the first thing to go. Pillar is 28 next year, which is an age where a lot of players' legs start to go. I doubt he has huge trade value, so you keep him and enjoy the CF defense until his legs wear down, then let him go.

 

He should be good until he hits FA. He doesn't really have outstanding speed to begin with but rather is great because of the reads he gets on the ball which shouldn't decline much over time.

[fireballW]

He should be good until he hits FA. He doesn't really have outstanding speed to begin with but rather is great because of the reads he gets on the ball which shouldn't decline much over time.

 

Sounds like something people may have said about Vernon Wells at one point. Does people's speed decrease slower if they aren't super fast to begin with?

[The Cats Ass]

Sounds like something people may have said about Vernon Wells at one point. Does people's speed decrease slower if they aren't super fast to begin with?

 

Didn't Wells get fat?

[Dr. Dinger]

Didn't Wells get fat?

 

He was always fat.

[RealAccountant]

Wouldn't Osuna make the top 50?

[BTS]

Wouldn't Osuna make the top 50?

 

No reliever will make the top-50.

[Orgfiller]

No reliever will make the top-50.

 

BTS, stahp.

[BTS]

He should be good until he hits FA. He doesn't really have outstanding speed to begin with but rather is great because of the reads he gets on the ball which shouldn't decline much over time.

 

There's no way 30+ year old Pillar is putting up +15 or +30 run defensive seasons.

[BTS]

BTS, stahp.

 

Sorry. My bad.

[John_Havok]

31-40

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-31-to-40/

 

It's interesting to have some prospects here over guys in the 41-50 range imo

[BTS]

31-40

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-31-to-40/

 

It's interesting to have some prospects here over guys in the 41-50 range imo

 

I really disagree with Kershaw's omission from this list. It's only 2.5 years of team control and not everyone can afford him, but I think Washington easily moves a Giolito for him, for example, or the Red Sox a Benintendi.

[Orgfiller]

I really disagree with Kershaw's omission from this list. It's only 2.5 years of team control and not everyone can afford him, but I think Washington easily moves a Giolito for him, for example, or the Red Sox a Benintendi.

 

I think the reasoning is that there's some weird clause in his contract which is that if he's traded by the Dodgers he may choose to opt out of his contact by season's end, so in theory you would be trading top assets for a rental of Kershaw. However, if you trade for him prior to the season beginning that's still a pretty much guaranteed 7+ WAR and the chance that he might not even opt out.

[BTS]

I think the reasoning is that there's some weird clause in his contract which is that if he's traded by the Dodgers he may choose to opt out of his contact by season's end, so in theory you would be trading top assets for a rental of Kershaw. However, if you trade for him prior to the season beginning that's still a pretty much guaranteed 7+ WAR and the chance that he might not even opt out.

 

Interesting. Didn't know that.

[nmrch]

31-40

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-31-to-40/

 

It's interesting to have some prospects here over guys in the 41-50 range imo

 

yeah i guess it comes down to how you account for variance. The prospect projections have a higher variance than projections for MLB players with a couple of years of experience, many executives in the league will probably prefer a 50th ranked MLB player over a 30th ranked prospect.

[John_Havok]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-21-to-30/

 

21 to 30 posted.

 

I would have thought Jackie bradley Jr would have fallen into the same "limited track record" file like others who are having a breakout season after not really playing up to expectations in the past.

[John_Havok]

11 - 20

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-11-to-20/

 

Donaldson checks in at 14

 

The reigning AL MVP is making a run at a second straight trophy — remarkably putting up an even better year than he did a season ago — and has established himself as one of baseball’s premier all-around players. In terms of short-term value, few players would improve a team today more than Donaldson, which is why the Blue Jays won’t give him up; he’s the reason they’re contenders. But as a 30-year-old with just two years left before he hits free agency — and that 2018 salary could break arbitration records — Donaldson doesn’t offer much in the way of long-term value, and while he’s going to be making a fraction of his market value, he won’t exactly be cheap. But given his high level of current performance, the Blue Jays would get far more for him than they gave up to get him, even after using up half of the controllable years they acquired; the Donaldson deal may very well go down as the best trade in Blue Jays history.

[reedjohnsonfan]

How is Joc Pederson so high? I get that it's supposed to be quantitative but falls short of actual value I think. Giolito could easily fall far from that list shortly. It's just such a volatile list that I'm not sure it's even worthy of a thread!

 

But in all seriousness, the main point is that it's a very general snapshot of trade value. For those who like accounting it's a balance sheet and not an income statement. Not sure we should be reading into it at all.

[Orgfiller]

So the top 10 will be something like (in no order): Corey Seager, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Mookie Betts, Anthony Rizzo, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor and Paul Goldschmidt.

[Spanky99]

How is Joc Pederson so high? I get that it's supposed to be quantitative but falls short of actual value I think. Giolito could easily fall far from that list shortly. It's just such a volatile list that I'm not sure it's even worthy of a thread!

 

But in all seriousness, the main point is that it's a very general snapshot of trade value. For those who like accounting it's a balance sheet and not an income statement. Not sure we should be reading into it at all.

 

 

-The threads are too crowded. I think I speak for a lot of people on this- when news comes out it too often gets lumped in around baseball, prospects or some related thread. I think encouraging more threads would make it better for people who come here for the latest news stories. I do not see a problem with creating smaller threads as long as they are news or opinion based and obviously not blatant troll threads. - reedjohnsonfan

 

Interesting.

[King]

ohh

[burlingtonbandit]

Interesting that a lot of people around the league would take Correra over Seager.