Jays desperately need to acquire infield depth

[Laika]

Can't tell if being serious....

 

ERA 1.96, WHIP 1.04, 36.2 IP, 8 ER, 30 SO, 11 BB, sits 94-96 mph range and he's only 23.

 

???

 

he's having great batted ball luck. His peripherals are fairly pedestrian for someone with his s***.

[Brownie19]

Is this Dogg's new account? (sighs)

[Praxis]

???

 

he's having great batted ball luck. His peripherals are fairly pedestrian for someone with his s***.

 

You mean his .228 BABIP? Look FIP is interesting for sure, but given his pitches/mechanics/velocity etc. which is more likely to be an anomaly with this sample size, his FIP or every other statistic?

[Laika]

You mean his .228 BABIP? Look FIP is interesting for sure, but given his pitches/mechanics/velocity etc. which is more likely to be an anomaly with this sample size, his FIP or every other statistic?

 

This sentence doesn't make any sense. It's not "every other statistic" vs FIP... it's just FIP vs ERA.

 

FIP is more predictive of future ERA than ERA itself. ERA takes a lot longer to stabilize than the inputs of FIP.

 

He's had trouble striking guys out his entire minor league career. You would expect a guy with his scouting reports to have an elite strikeout rate.

 

So to answer your question, it's more likely that his ERA and WHIP are anomalies right now. FYI, WHIP is also a thoroughly useless statistic that should be left in the hands of Wilner.

[Praxis]

This sentence doesn't make any sense. It's not "every other statistic" vs FIP... it's just FIP vs ERA.

 

FIP is more predictive of future ERA than ERA itself. ERA takes a lot longer to stabilize than the inputs of FIP.

 

He's had trouble striking guys out his entire minor league career. You would expect a guy with his scouting reports to have an elite strikeout rate.

 

So to answer your question, it's more likely that his ERA and WHIP are anomalies right now. FYI, WHIP is also a thoroughly useless statistic that should be left in the hands of Wilner.

 

One last try, then I'm done.

 

To quote Fangraphs:

 

"Using FIP requires a bit of caution and it is best to think of it as a starting place for the analysis of pitcher performance, especially if you are interesting in determining how a pitcher is likely to perform in the future. In the long run, the majority of pitchers will have ERAs and FIPs that are very close together, but over the course of a season they could vary a great deal. Typically, people attribute the difference between the two to luck on balls in play, but there are other factors that can lead to a difference."

 

and

 

"FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher’s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season’s worth of innings. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a retrospective statistic, simply that it requires more than a handful of innings to be a reliable indicator of performance, just like any statistic."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

 

We will just have to wait and see. I'll remember this discussion though if/when Hoffman plays in the majors.

[Laika]

One last try, then I'm done.

 

To quote Fangraphs:

 

"Using FIP requires a bit of caution and it is best to think of it as a starting place for the analysis of pitcher performance, especially if you are interesting in determining how a pitcher is likely to perform in the future. In the long run, the majority of pitchers will have ERAs and FIPs that are very close together, but over the course of a season they could vary a great deal. Typically, people attribute the difference between the two to luck on balls in play, but there are other factors that can lead to a difference."

 

and

 

"FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher’s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season’s worth of innings. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a retrospective statistic, simply that it requires more than a handful of innings to be a reliable indicator of performance, just like any statistic."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

 

We will just have to wait and see. I'll remember this discussion though if/when Hoffman plays in the majors.

 

Good job. Apparently you can cut and paste and use bold font.

 

You seem to have a very cursory understanding of statistics and baseball statistics, at best. But at least you've found Fangraphs. Keep reading and staying hungry and maybe one day we can have an intelligent conversation about the game.

[GD]

One last try, then I'm done.

 

To quote Fangraphs:

 

"Using FIP requires a bit of caution and it is best to think of it as a starting place for the analysis of pitcher performance, especially if you are interesting in determining how a pitcher is likely to perform in the future. In the long run, the majority of pitchers will have ERAs and FIPs that are very close together, but over the course of a season they could vary a great deal. Typically, people attribute the difference between the two to luck on balls in play, but there are other factors that can lead to a difference."

 

and

 

"FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher’s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season’s worth of innings. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a retrospective statistic, simply that it requires more than a handful of innings to be a reliable indicator of performance, just like any statistic."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

 

We will just have to wait and see. I'll remember this discussion though if/when Hoffman plays in the majors.

 

They vary because ERA is a bad indicator which is prone to BABIP fluctuations (hence the variations), which usually ends with it regressing to FIP over a large enough sample (usually doesn't take very long)

 

So all of this fluctuation you're seeing is because ERA is the bad stat, not FIP. Because batted balls are prone to randomness whereas peripherals are much more talent-based and won't show as big fluctuations over the course of the year

 

There are certain player profiles that can be identified after at the very least several hundred innings, that might have a FIP-beating effect (mostly guys with high FB% that get really high exit angles), but this is just for your general knowledge, Hoffman isn't one of those guys

 

Don't know why you bolded the season's worth of innings part but should be noted ERA is still less effective in one game's performance. Pitch level statistics like TIPS from JFaS are best for single game but obviously one game really doesn't mean much

[Praxis]

They vary because ERA is a bad indicator which is prone to BABIP fluctuations (hence the variations), which usually ends with it regressing to FIP over a large enough sample (usually doesn't take very long)

 

So all of this fluctuation you're seeing is because ERA is the bad stat, not FIP. Because batted balls are prone to randomness whereas peripherals are much more talent-based and won't show as big fluctuations over the course of the year

 

There are certain player profiles that can be identified after at the very least several hundred innings, that might have a FIP-beating effect (mostly guys with high FB% that get really high exit angles), but this is just for your general knowledge, Hoffman isn't one of those guys

 

Don't know why you bolded the season's worth of innings part but should be noted ERA is still less effective in one game's performance. Pitch level statistics like TIPS from JFaS are best for single game but obviously one game really doesn't mean much

 

You know the funny thing is, this whole discussion started with the premise that Hoffman was widely regarded as a good prospect by Colorado, MLB and many on this board when he was with us btw.

 

Somehow this has morphed into 36.2 IP with a FIP of 4.54. Ok, well, we'll see. But as I say, this conversation has been duly noted and for the record I appreciate your less than patronizing reply, unlike the other poster in question.

[GD]

It's because I'm nicer, a better poster, and a better fantasy baseball player than NJH

[Spanky99]

Jays really need to address their infield positions. I understand that Goins and Tulo are great defensively, but they're both killing the team with their offense. Tulo's average currently sits at 162 and Goins is at 146. It's not early anymore folks. Their offense has been so detrimental that I don't think you can keep them in the lineup on a daily basis. The only problem is there's no other options. Barney's looked good, but don't be fooled: his offense has always been his Achilles heel and he will come down to earth sooner than later.

 

Can you guys think of any sensible trade targets or call-ups who can provide a little pop for the infield?

 

Seriously, not sure if serious???

 

Like for f***ing real?

[Spanky99]

Once Travis comes up...Tulo and Goins will slip SS playing time (probably just Tulo though)

 

lol

[Spanky99]

Whooaah...

[Cyborg]

Hoffman has good stuff and had good college numbers. He just hasn't translated well yet to MiLB. ERA doesnt mean much (though MiLB ERA and BABIP have a bit more staying power than MLB ERA and BABIP).

[nextyear]

I think it would be amusing if it turns out that Tulowitzki just needs eye glasses/contacts. Maybe a pair of glasses would solve all of his hitting problems. It seems to have done wonders for Brett Lawrie.

[Nafro]

Really on the fence about closing this, but I don't want to abuse my mod powers just because I think there's some rampant stupidity going on...

 

If you started closing threads for that reason....it would really start to get tough to find threads to post in....

[TheGrandslamMan]

@Spanky99 You believe it's acceptable for both your starting SS and 2B to be hitting with a 150 AVG going into mid-May?

 

I realize players go into slumps and you obviously have to give Tulo more rope but you have to cut the cord with Goins at this point. Hell, just let Barney start everyday until he approaches Goins' woeful numbers.

[TheGrandslamMan]

+

Really on the fence about closing this, but I don't want to abuse my mod powers just because I think there's some rampant stupidity going on...

 

I respect that you run this message board, but I don't understand what you mean by "rampant stupidity". You've obviously seen how many times both Tulo and Goins have killed countless offensive chances with their approach at the plate and if you honestly think that Travis is gonna come back after being injured for more than a year and continue on with his productive rookie numbers then I don't know what to tell you.

 

The truth is this would be a team riding high in 1st place if it wasn't for Tulo, Goins and Martin at the plate.

[Jimcanuck]

I think it would be amusing if it turns out that Tulowitzki just needs eye glasses/contacts. Maybe a pair of glasses would solve all of his hitting problems. It seems to have done wonders for Brett Lawrie.

 

eyesight doesnt explain his watching fastballs cruise through the middle of the zone

[CultofShatkins]

eyesight doesnt explain his watching fastballs cruise through the middle of the zone

 

I swear if you watch Tulo's first ab last night and then Peavy's they were almost identical in their approach and result.

[Stangstag]

I swear if you watch Tulo's first ab last night and then Peavy's they were almost identical in their approach and result.

 

I was so upset with Tulo after his first AB last night. Good hitters do not take 3 straight strikes down the heart of the plate and strike out without swinging the bat once. I don't think i've EVER seen Bautista/Edwin/Donaldson do that.

 

Just imagine Bautista letting 3 straight strikes go by. It just doesn't happen. Pretty sad, considering Tulo's bat used to be one of the best in the game.

[jb22]

+

 

I respect that you run this message board, but I don't understand what you mean by "rampant stupidity". You've obviously seen how many times both Tulo and Goins have killed countless offensive chances with their approach at the plate and if you honestly think that Travis is gonna come back after being injured for more than a year and continue on with his productive rookie numbers then I don't know what to tell you.

 

The truth is this would be a team riding high in 1st place if it wasn't for Tulo, Goins and Martin at the plate.

 

should have just kept lurking imo

[Governator]

I was so upset with Tulo after his first AB last night. Good hitters do not take 3 straight strikes down the heart of the plate and strike out without swinging the bat once. I don't think i've EVER seen Bautista/Edwin/Donaldson do that.

 

Just imagine Bautista letting 3 straight strikes go by. It just doesn't happen. Pretty sad, considering Tulo's bat used to be one of the best in the game.

 

If Bautista did that it'd be because he was certain they were all 2" off the plate and he'd probably spit in the umpire's face.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Jays really need to address their infield positions. I understand that Goins and Tulo are great defensively, but they're both killing the team with their offense. Tulo's average currently sits at 162 and Goins is at 146. It's not early anymore folks. Their offense has been so detrimental that I don't think you can keep them in the lineup on a daily basis. The only problem is there's no other options. Barney's looked good, but don't be fooled: his offense has always been his Achilles heel and he will come down to earth sooner than later.

 

So Barney will come down to earth sooner than later because traditionally his offence has been bad, but Tulo who's been slumping can't have the opposite trend where he was good offensively but can't get better?

[BigCecil]

I think it would be amusing if it turns out that Tulowitzki just needs eye glasses/contacts. Maybe a pair of glasses would solve all of his hitting problems. It seems to have done wonders for Brett Lawrie.

 

....like Ricky Vaughn? Former California Penal League player

 

Edited May 10, 2016 by BigCecil

[nextyear]

....like Ricky Vaughn? Former California Penal League player

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1510[/ATTACH]

 

Yes, I think that is actually a good look for Tulowitzki:

 

http://underscoopfire.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ricky-vaughn.jpg

 

They both have that stern look.

[Krylian]

+

 

I respect that you run this message board, but I don't understand what you mean by "rampant stupidity". You've obviously seen how many times both Tulo and Goins have killed countless offensive chances with their approach at the plate and if you honestly think that Travis is gonna come back after being injured for more than a year and continue on with his productive rookie numbers then I don't know what to tell you.

 

The truth is this would be a team riding high in 1st place if it wasn't for Tulo, Goins and Martin at the plate.

 

Bullpen.

 

The End.

[TheGrandslamMan]

Bullpen.

 

The End.

 

Sure, the bullpen hasn't been great, but when you rely on them in close tie/1-run games then they're always going to be an easy scapegoat. The simple fact is that the Blue Jays are built on offense and if they have 3 regulars in the lineup hitting around 150 halfway through May then you have a big problem on your hands and they're just not going to win games.

[TheGrandslamMan]

So Barney will come down to earth sooner than later because traditionally his offence has been bad, but Tulo who's been slumping can't have the opposite trend where he was good offensively but can't get better?

 

This is an illogical comparison. Tulo's career has been halted by some serious injuries and he's now going on into his 30's... It's foolish at this point to assume that he's just slumping and that he'll rebound to his glory days. Not to mention that the guy spent his career playing in an absolute hitters paradise.

[jb22]

This is an illogical comparison. Tulo's career has been halted by some serious injuries and he's now going on into his 30's... It's foolish at this point to assume that he's just slumping and that he'll rebound to his glory days. Not to mention that the guy spent his career playing in an absolute hitters paradise.

 

career 115 wRC+ road even including last 2 seasons

 

That's not good enough from an elite defending SS for you? Find another team.

[GD]

wRC+ adjusts for run environment