General 2016 Blue Jays discussion thread

[BlueJays]

...

[Sorrow]

Apparently Pompey was hurt after colliding with a wall today. I haven't been able to see how badly he hit or what kind of severity to expect but he did have to leave the game.

[Stangstag]

Apparently Pompey was hurt after colliding with a wall today. I haven't been able to see how badly he hit or what kind of severity to expect but he did have to leave the game.

 

Jesus christ. Will this guy ever stay on the field?

[Jonn]

Doesn't he have to be down for 10 days?

 

That doesn't sound like a bad thing. Hes been awful. Nice kick in the pants.

[Krylian]

Jesus christ. Will this guy ever stay on the field?

 

No.

[burlingtonbandit]

Estrada looks like a legit number 2 starter. He's not as good as his ERA but his FIP is 3.71 and he's a FIP beater.

 

If the Jays falter you could probably get a haul from him considering the market and the extra year on his deal.

[bones10]

When are we picking up Doolittle from the Athletics ?

[RealAccountant]

Estrada looks like a legit number 2 starter. He's not as good as his ERA but his FIP is 3.71 and he's a FIP beater.

 

If the Jays falter you could probably get a haul from him considering the market and the extra year on his deal.

 

Best opponent average in the majors is good enough to be a no.2 starter

[sawyerford]

No way are they trading Estrada

[BTS]

When are we picking up Doolittle from the Athletics ?

 

Hopefully never.

[BTS]

Estrada looks like a legit number 2 starter. He's not as good as his ERA but his FIP is 3.71 and he's a FIP beater.

 

If the Jays falter you could probably get a haul from him considering the market and the extra year on his deal.

 

I don't want to trade him. He's so f***ing steady. Keep the innings next year, and then try to get him on another 2-year deal for his age-34 and 35 seasons if he keeps it up. Reliable starters are hard to find, and, given that he doesn't rely on velo, he could be effective for awhile.

[ChrisS]

Best opponent average in the majors is good enough to be a no.2 starter

Best in the AL, 4th overall. He was also 4th overall in all of MLB last season.

I have more confidence in Estrada than our other starters

[BTS]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

 

Estrada has been an ace so far

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I can't imagine to better off season FA signings than Happ and Estrada.

 

I know AA left a bunch of recommendations to the new FO before he left. It'd be interesting to see if he recommending signing either of those two.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I don't want to trade him. He's so f***ing steady. Keep the innings next year, and then try to get him on another 2-year deal for his age-34 and 35 seasons if he keeps it up. Reliable starters are hard to find, and, given that he doesn't rely on velo, he could be effective for awhile.

 

Totally agree. If he's doing the job very well throwing 88 mph, then he'll last for a long time. He's steady eddy, and he's so tough to hit. He loves TO, signed for what I think is a hometown discount, etc. So many reasons to keep him. He'd be almost the last guy I trade unless some FO offered the moon for him. Which is unlikely.

[Cyborg]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

 

Estrada has been an ace so far

 

So Chris Tillman and Colby Lewis have too?

[BTS]

So Chris Tillman and Colby Lewis have too?

 

Is there reason to believe that RA-9 WAR is the best way to evaluate Tillman and Lewis?

[RealAccountant]

Best in the AL, 4th overall. He was also 4th overall in all of MLB last season.

I have more confidence in Estrada than our other starters

 

I don't count the stats of a league where 11.11% of the at bats are automatic outs

[Cyborg]

Is there reason to believe that RA-9 WAR is the best way to evaluate Tillman and Lewis?

 

Is there reason to use RA9-WAR in anything less than a full season for any pitcher?

[BTS]

Is there reason to use RA9-WAR in anything less than a full season for any pitcher?

 

Don't be a f***ing pedant. He's been great, and it's fun that he's over 2 RA-9 WAR 10 starts into the season, and has looked pretty convincing doing it.

[Cyborg]

Don't be a f***ing pedant. He's been great, and it's fun that he's over 2 RA-9 WAR 10 starts into the season, and has looked pretty convincing doing it.

He's been better than last year, but still not "great". I want 2012 Estrada!

[Grant77]

Don't be a f***ing pedant. He's been great, and it's fun that he's over 2 RA-9 WAR 10 starts into the season, and has looked pretty convincing doing it.

 

It's funny how advanced stats were so incredibly important with regards to Sanchez, but don't matter as much for Estrada. It's almost as if a huge bias caused 99% of the forum to underestimate a talented young pitcher when they all claim to use logic.

[Cyborg]

It's funny how advanced stats were so incredibly important with regards to Sanchez, but don't matter as much for Estrada. It's almost as if a huge bias caused 99% of the forum to underestimate a talented young pitcher when they all claim to use logic.

Estrada is an xFIP beater due to high FB rate, but it should be around 0.5 runs better than his xFIP, not 2.

[BTS]

It's funny how advanced stats were so incredibly important with regards to Sanchez, but don't matter as much for Estrada. It's almost as if a huge bias caused 99% of the forum to underestimate a talented young pitcher when they all claim to use logic.

 

There's no anti-Sanchez bias here. A lot of people, myself included, completely wrote Estrada off because of 'advanced stats'. We weren't looking deep enough, and were wrong. Sanchez was a bad starter until 2016, then improved and now looks like a good starter. People are acknowledging that he's become a good starter.

 

Recap:

Estrada - people were wrong and admit it

Sanchez - has improved, and people now acknowledge that he's good, reflecting that improvement

 

Not sure what more you want.

[BTS]

Fun Estrada fact: including the playoffs, he has made 26 consecutive starts of 5+ IP and 4 or fewer earned runs allowed. Consistency!

[Sammy225]

Fun Estrada fact: including the playoffs, he has made 26 consecutive starts of 5+ IP and 4 or fewer earned runs allowed. Consistency!

 

Estrada and Happ are proving to be two of the best deals in the offseason

[jays4life19]

Not sure what more you want.

 

You forgot the importance of forming a scouting report via listening to games on the radio.

 

Inside joke.

[BTS]

I know what you're getting at but Tillman and Lewis have similar fly ball rates this year as Estrada. If they keep this up for another three months, you'll have the same articles coming about saying those guys need to be measured in ways other than FIP.

 

But it doesn't really work like that. There aren't magic thresholds that tell you which WAR to look at for a pitcher. You have to evaluate the skills they're displaying critically in each sample while taking into account the sample's size. At some size, RA9 becomes most relevant for every pitcher.

 

f*** the autism-spectrum stats crew can be annoying.

[G-Snarls]

[G-Snarls]

f***