General 2016 Blue Jays discussion thread

[Rusty_Savage]

Safe travels!

 

Thanks. Can't wait till Sunday's game.... 3 rows back of third base.

[Governator]

Thanks. Can't wait till Sunday's game.... 3 rows back of third base.

 

Nice, keep your eye on the ball.

[BigCecil]

Getting ready to get on a plane and head to Toronto to catch the Boston series! Think I may be a bit more excited then the wife

 

Have fun. I almost went but honestly don't know if I can take the manic stress of it all lol. I'll either be on suicide watch or ecstatic by next Monday. Whats it going to be? Reminds me of that big Yankee series last year and Martin's 3 run HR.

[ChrisS]

Justin Smoak then becomes a timeless post season hero

 

lol that would shut up all the haters on here.

[Jonn]

That might be a bit much but this road trip really did f*** up their chances. We were the favorites and now we have less than a coin flip's chance.

 

Now this is a bit much. We are still tied for first...

[ChrisS]

Yeah the playoff odds are ********. Pretty sure KC was at like 20% chance to win the division, and something like 2% chance to win it all last year.

 

Or how KC had a 98% to lose against Houston in game 4 at one point.

The odds are based on thousands of simulations for the remainder of the season. Obviously these cant predict winning or losing streaks (like the one we are on) accurately but most of the simulations will end up around the same winning percentage by the end of the season that we have now. Our odds have dropped because the probability that we lost 4 of 5 to Tampa and New York was fairly low.

 

I think for the in-game odds they base it on historical data. The Astros were up 6-2 heading into the 8th, thats a pretty big deficit to overcome with only 6 outs remaining.

[jaysfan2014]

Remember, Boston, Baltimore and NY have to play each other along with Toronto.. nobody in the AL East is guaranteed to win anything at this point. It's still possible Detroit, Houston, and the Yankees could sneak in at two of those team's expense.

[Olerud363]

Yeah the playoff odds are ********. Pretty sure KC was at like 20% chance to win the division, and something like 2% chance to win it all last year.

 

Or how KC had a 98% to lose against Houston in game 4 at one point.

 

You clearly don't understand probability.

 

KC had a 98% chance to lose that game. There were ~ 33 playoff games last year. So we would expect to see a game such as KC vs. Houston game 4 every couple of years.

 

KC, Cleveland, Detroit, Minne, and Chicago are in that division. If you played the 2014-2016 talent levels over and over again I suspect you might find detroit and cleveland win the division more than KC.

 

So maybe KC should of been at 25%. 20% wasn't unreasonable. If you say KC, Detroit and Cleveland are even, then they would each have 33, if you say Chicago and Minne have a slight chance than KC goes down to 30. If you think Cleveland and Detroit have a little more talent than KC, KC goes to 25% or so.

 

A lot of this stuff you can do on the back of a napkin.

[Olerud363]

The odds are based on thousands of simulations for the remainder of the season. Obviously these cant predict winning or losing streaks (like the one we are on) accurately but most of the simulations will end up around the same winning percentage by the end of the season that we have now. Our odds have dropped because the probability that we lost 4 of 5 to Tampa and New York was fairly low.

 

I think for the in-game odds they base it on historical data. The Astros were up 6-2 heading into the 8th, thats a pretty big deficit to overcome with only 6 outs remaining.

 

If Baltimore, Boston, Toronto, and Detroit fall into a four way tie, our playoff odds will be about 75%. That is becasue with only 10-20 games left it's all a coin flip.

 

three spots, four teams, 25% chance of being left out.

 

Basically we are almost there...

 

The last five days have changed it to a lottery... fairly good odds because there are 3 spots.

[ChrisS]

We still have an .82x probability of making the post season.

 

The closer we get to game 162 the importance of each game increases.

 

This weekend is going to be huge. The Jays vs Red Sox and Baltimore vs Detroit. I just hope we come out on the right side of this. Maybe that tough loss last night will energize this team.

[Terminator]

Now this is a bit much. We are still tied for first...

 

What? How? lol

 

It's really basic math. Tied with the Red Sox and if you think we are similarly talented with similar remaining schedules then put it at about 50/50. But you can't forget the Orioles who are a solid team and only a game back. Even if you don't really like them with this few games left they still have a 10% chance or so. Now we are down to 40%, less then a coin flip.

 

EDIT: My math was a little off, should have been 45% but the point still stands.

Edited September 7, 2016 by Terminator

[jaysfan2014]

We still have an .82x probability of making the post season.

 

The closer we get to game 162 the importance of each game increases.

 

This weekend is going to be huge. The Jays vs Red Sox and Baltimore vs Detroit. I just hope we come out on the right side of this. Maybe that tough loss last night will energize this team.

 

And don't forget Cubs/Astros (no chance Houston is winning that series against an 89-49 team that could clinch within the next week--Astros playoff hopes could end right here) and the Yankees/Rays. KC gets the White Sox.

[Olerud363]

Now this is a bit much. We are still tied for first...

 

We are tied for first with another team 1 game back. That gives us less than 50% to win the division. It is like 40% for division

 

Could get a wild card, but that is ony 50% to get to a division series. It is 60% chance of division series right now.

 

We've gone from 80 to 60% chance of a play off series in last 5 days.

[Olerud363]

What? How? lol

 

It's really basic math. Tied with the Red Sox and if you think we are similarly talented with similar remaining schedules then put it at about 50/50. But you can't forget the Orioles who are a solid team and only a game back. Even if you don't really like them with this few games left they still have a 10% chance or so. Now we are down to 40%, less then a coin flip.

 

exactly -- and the Red Sox games have HUGE importance... If Red Sox sweep chances would be down to 20% for a division, and just a random dog fight with detroit and balitmore for wild card.

 

Sunday around 4:00 you could say "that's the season" and be right... or we could be back to a cushy high play off probability situation

 

Next 4 games are super important.

[Governator]

Sooo can we all just agree we got a great opportunity to make the postseason and move on?

[Terminator]

exactly -- and the Red Sox games have HUGE importance... If Red Sox sweep chances would be down to 20% for a division, and just a random dog fight with detroit and balitmore for wild card.

 

Sunday around 4:00 you could say "that's the season" and be right... or we could be back to a cushy high play off probability situation

 

Next 4 games are super important.

 

I agree with all of this. This race is TIGHT. It's September and there are three teams for one AL East winner and 5 teams for the AL East winner and 2 WC spots. There are also the teams hanging back a bit further but could make the playoffs with a good month of September. All of us are bunched together really tightly. We fall 3 games back of Boston over the next week or two and the AL East may very well be out of reach. On top of that we are playing like s***. That needs to stop starting tonight.

[Terminator]

Sooo can we all just agree we got a great opportunity to make the postseason and move on?

 

We don't have a great shot of winning the AL East which is what I mostly care about. I'd call it a decent shot. Although we do have a great opportunity to at least make the playoffs, I agree with that.

[Governator]

We don't have a great shot of winning the AL East which is what I mostly care about. I'd call it a decent shot. Although we do have a great opportunity to at least make the playoffs, I agree with that.

 

Any other year, if the Jays had 40-50% chance to win the division we would be doing cartwheels. This year just feels different because it's our second go around. I also hate the word chance, I think it's highly overused as if this is poker. The fact that we have two more series with the Red Sox means we control our own destiny, it's not even up to chance yet it's up the team to step up and take it.

[BigCecil]

Sooo can we all just agree we got a great opportunity to make the postseason and move on?

 

Yup. We should start a "Jays Optimism Thread - We are the Beasts of the East and going all the Way. f*** em' all".

 

Last yr was an epic roll the last 1/3. I don't expect Sept to break that way, but I remember the math when we trailed the NYY by 7 2015. It sucked. Our boys just have to play better. The talent is there. The O's and BoSox fans are as unsure about the end result as we are.

[Olerud363]

Any other year, if the Jays had 40-50% chance to win the division we would be doing cartwheels. This year just feels different because it's our second go around. I also hate the word chance, I think it's highly overused as if this is poker. The fact that we have two more series with the Red Sox means we control our own destiny, it's not even up to chance yet it's up the team to step up and take it.

Each team will want it... I assume.

 

Chance will be a huge factor. Look at last night if the wind was blowing out to left it is a completely different game.

 

Talent and "wanting it" have much more of an influence over 160 games.

 

If Kevin Pillar "wants it" more than Mookie Betts...

 

Kevin Pillar will watch video over and over again for many months

Kevin Pillar will put extra time in the cage over many months

Kevin Pillar will say "I will, I will not swing at bad pitches" over and over again

 

All this "may" make Kevin Pillar into a .280 hitter

Mookie bets may "not" want it, and just spend his extra time in the clubhouse on playstation.

All this "may" make Mookie Betts into a .300 hitter (instead of .320)

 

These difference will show up over a season....

 

over 20 games it's a fair bit of chance.

[Olerud363]

Yup. We should start a "Jays Optimism Thread - We are the Beasts of the East and going all the Way. f*** em' all".

 

Last yr was an epic roll the last 1/3. I don't expect Sept to break that way, but I remember the math when we trailed the NYY by 7 2015. It sucked. Our boys just have to play better. The talent is there. The O's and BoSox fans are as unsure about the end result as we are.

 

Well OK. I am not sure our positive attitudes will do much.. however if we the fans really want to do something.

 

1. How can we help Devon Travis not make silly errors on semi-routine groundballs?

2. How can we help Kevin Pillar not swing at bad pitches

3. How can we help Justin Smoak not strike out 40% of the time?

4. How can we help Jose Bautista hit the ball like he did when he was 30?

5. How can we help Marcus Stroman not see so many little grounders go up the middle?\

6. How can we help R.A. Dickey find his 2012 form again?

7. How can we help Brett Cecil not suck this year?

8. How can we help EE reduce his strikouts and go back to a .940 ops instead of just .900??

9. How can we help Tulo adjust to normal altidude and also swing like he did when he was 28?

10. How can we help Josh Thole not be in the lineup?

 

There are a lot more. However if we the fans can somehow help with those 10 it will make a big difference??

 

There is no proof positive thinking works any better than reverse psychology... or is there?? Let us know. I want to help as much as possible.

[BigCecil]

Was just listening to Matt Stairs interview. He said its better to have a skid early in Sept than late and this team has too much talent. The 1-4 start will be corrected. I was feeling awesome about all this with confidence bolstered.

 

Then he said Jose is still playing good D in the OF...

[Olerud363]

Any other year, if the Jays had 40-50% chance to win the division we would be doing cartwheels. This year just feels different because it's our second go around. I also hate the word chance, I think it's highly overused as if this is poker. The fact that we have two more series with the Red Sox means we control our own destiny, it's not even up to chance yet it's up the team to step up and take it.

 

I think if the Jays had a solid young core it would be different... there is a feeling we are going to "Philly" fairly quckly at some point...

 

there might be 1 year before we "Philly".

we might "Philly by all star break" of next year

or maybe in spring training??

 

Or maybe it JUST happened. Maybe we phillied on the morning of Friday September 2, 2016. It just happed. The Toronto Blue Jays just Phillied!!!!

 

GODAMMMNIT!!!!! See you in 2022!

[BigCecil]

Well OK. I am not sure our positive attitudes will do much.. however if we the fans really want to do something.

 

1. How can we help Devon Travis not make silly errors on semi-routine groundballs?

2. How can we help Kevin Pillar not swing at bad pitches

3. How can we help Justin Smoak not strike out 40% of the time?

4. How can we help Jose Bautista hit the ball like he did when he was 30?

5. How can we help Marcus Stroman not see so many little grounders go up the middle?\

6. How can we help R.A. Dickey find his 2012 form again?

7. How can we help Brett Cecil not suck this year?

8. How can we help EE reduce his strikouts and go back to a .940 ops instead of just .900??

9. How can we help Tulo adjust to normal altidude and also swing like he did when he was 28?

10. How can we help Josh Thole not be in the lineup?

 

There are a lot more. However if we the fans can somehow help with those 10 it will make a big difference??

 

There is no proof positive thinking works any better than reverse psychology... or is there?? Let us know. I want to help as much as possible.

 

lol. Our views positive or neg wont change a thing on the field obviously. But there is a lot of endless negative, reactionary BS on the board. GDTs are the worst. It would ne nice to just have a bit more confidence, positivity and realism. That's all.

[pickoff22]

Was just listening to Matt Stairs interview. He said its better to have a skid early in Sept than late and this team has too much talent. The 1-4 start will be corrected. I was feeling awesome about all this with confidence bolstered.

 

Then he said Jose is still playing good D in the OF...

 

Haha, he probably saw the replay from him tossing out Castro at second and figured it was indicative of the entire season

[Governator]

Each team will want it... I assume.

 

Chance will be a huge factor. Look at last night if the wind was blowing out to left it is a completely different game.

 

Talent and "wanting it" have much more of an influence over 160 games.

 

If Kevin Pillar "wants it" more than Mookie Betts...

 

Kevin Pillar will watch video over and over again for many months

Kevin Pillar will put extra time in the cage over many months

Kevin Pillar will say "I will, I will not swing at bad pitches" over and over again

 

All this "may" make Kevin Pillar into a .280 hitter

Mookie bets may "not" want it, and just spend his extra time in the clubhouse on playstation.

All this "may" make Mookie Betts into a .300 hitter (instead of .320)

 

These difference will show up over a season....

 

over 20 games it's a fair bit of chance.

 

 

There is some chance but there is certainly more skill involved over a 20 game span than luck with regards to your results. Yes chance can influence the outcome of a game or a series but the odds that the wind knocks down your grand slam winning shot in the 9th with 2 outs is a lot less likely than not... no? Having a losing record over a 20 game spread in September speaks more about your team than it does about low BABIP and storm winds.

[fatcowxlive]

Of course they are.

 

One bad road trip and casuals are jumping off the bandwagon lol.

 

That might be a bit much but this road trip really did f*** up their chances. We were the favorites and now we have less than a coin flip's chance.

 

Nononono I'm talking about Dean Blandell, Blair, Brunt and Barker. Usually all in defence of the Jays have really been getting at the Jays this morning. Especially Blair and Barker, who for once I completely agree with. They got on the entire offence for s***ing the bed multiple times, called the fact we're in first place a bit of a head-scratcher, and destroyed Pillar and Martin for striking out looking in the 9th, especially Pillar who "isn't in a position to look for a certain pitch, let alone in the 9th". Even Morosi came on and said unless the offence turns around within the next couple of games and we go on a tear until the end of the season we're gonna get edged out by Boston, it was like a complete panic this morning lol.

 

I personally am not at that point yet, I was more concerned when Donaldson was going through a slump but now that he's hitting .340 in the past couple of weeks I'm confident that everyone else is gonna start aligning themselves. The weird thing is that I don't remember us going on a winning streak... what's the most we've won in a row? 4 or 5? It seems like when something goes right something goes wrong... Good starting and s*** offence. Good starting, good offence but s*** BP. Good BP and decent offence, s*** starting. Before the ASG and the series against the Twins are the only times where I can vividly remember us winning games with everything working... while with this roadtrip (especially vs. Tampa) I feel like our starting is worse than usual, we average like 4 runs a game and our BP can't hold anything. Man I hope we can take one from the Yanks and go home, we need to turn this around quick

[Governator]

Well OK. I am not sure our positive attitudes will do much.. however if we the fans really want to do something.

 

1. How can we help Devon Travis not make silly errors on semi-routine groundballs?

2. How can we help Kevin Pillar not swing at bad pitches

3. How can we help Justin Smoak not strike out 40% of the time?

4. How can we help Jose Bautista hit the ball like he did when he was 30?

5. How can we help Marcus Stroman not see so many little grounders go up the middle?\

6. How can we help R.A. Dickey find his 2012 form again?

7. How can we help Brett Cecil not suck this year?

8. How can we help EE reduce his strikouts and go back to a .940 ops instead of just .900??

9. How can we help Tulo adjust to normal altidude and also swing like he did when he was 28?

10. How can we help Josh Thole not be in the lineup?

 

There are a lot more. However if we the fans can somehow help with those 10 it will make a big difference??

 

There is no proof positive thinking works any better than reverse psychology... or is there?? Let us know. I want to help as much as possible.

 

 

I know how.. we can all pray for lots of wind against the opposition.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Does anyone actually read Olerud's posts. These are the ramblings of a lunatic.

[THANOS]

Was just listening to Matt Stairs interview. He said its better to have a skid early in Sept than late and this team has too much talent. The 1-4 start will be corrected. I was feeling awesome about all this with confidence bolstered.

 

Then he said Jose is still playing good D in the OF...

 

Haha, he probably saw the replay from him tossing out Castro at second and figured it was indicative of the entire season

 

Yeah lol, he's clearly not watching him regularly and is far from an advanced stats guy.