Blue Jays open to Cespedes-type deal for Bautista

[burlingtonbandit]

baseball players don't make much in endorsements. Not like Bautista would make a ton more money in New York or Boston off the field.

 

Certainly pales in comparison to basketball and football. I think Stroman does really well since he started his own brand plus he's got New Era, Jordan etc..

[FrozenRopes]

Just trade him already.

[Stangstag]

Just trade him already.

 

Dumn

[Krylian]

Why are people so afraid to let Bautista go? Sometimes it's better to let a guy walk or move him.

[RealAccountant]

Why are people so afraid to let Bautista go? Sometimes it's better to let a guy walk or move him.

 

Because prior to his leadership we had 20 years of meaningless baseball that only few people even on this forum actually followed?

[gbill2004]

Because prior to his leadership we had 20 years of meaningless baseball that only few people even on this forum actually followed?

 

JD is the new leader.

[BigCecil]

While the power has been there his contact rate has declined 3 straight years. A career high 9.3 Swinging Strike% last year and he always seems to have these nagging injuries while barely playing the field.

 

yes. Before 2015 Jose missed a large part of 2 seasons and last year the shoulder. There has been some detailed analysis on fangraphs on Bautista and Pujols (as well as all aging sluggers back the last 4 decades). They all point to the same probability, and that is that Edwins age gives him a better chance to be an elite bat longer than Jose.

[Spanky__99]

yes. Before 2015 Jose missed a large part of 2 seasons and last year the shoulder. There has been some detailed analysis on fangraphs on Bautista and Pujols (as well as all aging sluggers back the last 4 decades). They all point to the same probability, and that is that Edwins age gives him a better chance to be an elite bat longer than Jose.

 

It's pretty simple isn't it, it's not like Eddy suxxxx either.

 

P.S. Wait for his contact rates, etc... without taking April and early May into consideration.

[John_Havok]

Jose Bautista is one of the most recognizable stars in MLB. Thats like saying Kevin Durant doesn't have the same appeal in Toronto as OKC since he played there.

 

This is actually one of MLB's biggest problems. I bet you could walk down the street of any major city in the US and show pictures of LeBron James, Tom Brady and Mike Trout....and Trout would be in the far minority of being recognized.

 

Baseball doesn't market it's stars nationally with any effectiveness at all.

[John_Havok]

Why are people so afraid to let Bautista go? Sometimes it's better to let a guy walk or move him.

 

People are worried about optics for some reason.

[burlingtonbandit]

yes. Before 2015 Jose missed a large part of 2 seasons and last year the shoulder. There has been some detailed analysis on fangraphs on Bautista and Pujols (as well as all aging sluggers back the last 4 decades). They all point to the same probability, and that is that Edwins age gives him a better chance to be an elite bat longer than Jose.

 

Jose's contact rates have been steady since the breakout and last year walked more than he struck out. Even if Edwin is younger he looks like he is declining already while Jose hasn't.

[burlingtonbandit]

This is actually one of MLB's biggest problems. I bet you could walk down the street of any major city in the US and show pictures of LeBron James, Tom Brady and Mike Trout....and Trout would be in the far minority of being recognized.

 

Baseball doesn't market it's stars nationally with any effectiveness at all.

 

I think some of it has to do with how Baseball stars have way less of an impact on the game than stars in Football and Basketball. The Lebrons and Currys of the world are worth like 20 Wins/season and play 3/4 of the game while a baseball star will only get 4-5 PA/game or pitch once every 5 days.

 

Baseball will always be more regional than national since all the teams play pretty much every day. Not many people are going to go out of their way to watch an Angels game to see Mike Trout have 4 ABs. That said I still think MLB could do better no matter what they do the NFL and NBA will always have an edge based on the logistics of the sports.

[John_Havok]

I think some of it has to do with how Baseball stars have way less of an impact on the game than stars in Football and Basketball. The Lebrons and Currys of the world are worth like 20 Wins/season and play 3/4 of the game while a baseball star will only get 4-5 PA/game or pitch once every 5 days.

 

Baseball will always be more regional than national since all the teams play pretty much every day. Not many people are going to go out of their way to watch an Angels game to see Mike Trout have 4 ABs. That said I still think MLB could do better no matter what they do the NFL and NBA will always have an edge based on the logistics of the sports.

 

There's any number of reasons, but marketing is a huge part of it.

 

Part of it is also the nature of the game and the lack of emotion and action in it, and the continued efforts of morons like Gossage that would rather watch 9 gentlemen congratulate each other with handshakes and hugs than flip a bat and create some intensity.

[Spanky__99]

yes. Before 2015 Jose missed a large part of 2 seasons and last year the shoulder. There has been some detailed analysis on fangraphs on Bautista and Pujols (as well as all aging sluggers back the last 4 decades). They all point to the same probability, and that is that Edwins age gives him a better chance to be an elite bat longer than Jose.

 

It's pretty simple isn't it, it's not like Eddy suxxxx either.

 

P.S. Wait for his contact rates, etc... without taking April and early May into consideration.

 

Jose's contact rates have been steady since the breakout and last year walked more than he struck out. Even if Edwin is younger he looks like he is declining already while Jose hasn't.

 

What'd I tell ya!

[Spanky__99]

LIKE a BOOK!

[Spanky__99]

Jose's contact rates have been steady since the breakout and last year walked more than he struck out. Even if Edwin is younger he looks like he is declining already while Jose hasn't.

 

Check them numbers after EE's slump?

 

Hint: Edwin was better.

[FrozenRopes]

I hope josie shits the bed this year and it costs him dearly.

[Spanky__99]

I hope josie shits the bed this year and it costs him dearly.

 

And how would that help the Jays, oh Sharp one?

[burlingtonbandit]

Check them numbers after EE's slump?

 

Hint: Edwin was better.

 

Edwin was a beast last year in the 2nd half. That still doesn't change my opinion on him declining at a faster rate than JB.

[Rusty_Savage]

I hope josie shits the bed this year and it costs him dearly.

 

Yeah that's a pretty stupid way to look at it.

[HERPDERP]

Edwin was a beast last year in the 2nd half. That still doesn't change my opinion on him declining at a faster rate than JB.

 

playing with a sports hernia and bum thumb too!

[crazy47larry]

Edwin was a beast last year in the 2nd half. That still doesn't change my opinion on him declining at a faster rate than JB.

 

edwin was a beast for every game except for the first 20 or so games, and he was hurt during ST and got off to a late start. after edwin shook off the rust he was the superior player for the throughout the season.

[crazy47larry]

Dates from 4/28/2015 to 10/4/2015 for a total of 144 games

 

 

EDWIN ENCARNACION

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=2151&position=3B/DH&type=0&gds=2015-04-28&gde=2015-10-04&season=

 

PA: 540

Hits: 133

HR: 35

RUN: 86

RBI: 103

BB%: 13.1%

K%: 15.2%

ISO: 0.298

AVG: 0.294

OBP: 0.393

SLG: 0.592

wOBA: 0.413

WRC+: 164

LD%: 20.3%

HR/FB: 20.1%

Hard%: 37.2%

 

 

JOSE BAUTISTA

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1887&position=3B/OF&type=0&gds=2015-04-28&gde=2015-10-04&season=

 

PA: 603

Hits: 129

HR: 36

RUN: 96

RBI: 104

BB%: 16.3%

K%: 15.3%

ISO: 0.288

AVG: 0.262

OBP: 0.383

SLG: 0.550

wOBA: 0.396

WRC+: 152

LD%: 13.4%

HR/FB: 18.4%

Hard%: 35.2%

 

The only thing Jose was better in that I trust are BB rate and I guess HRs. Even then it was only 1 HR and Edwin beat him in both SLUG and ISO.

Edited March 14, 2016 by crazy47larry
added Batted Ball stats + links

[burlingtonbandit]

edwin was a beast for every game except for the first 20 or so games, and he was hurt during ST and got off to a late start. after edwin shook off the rust he was the superior player for the throughout the season.

 

Did I not just say Edwin was better than Jose in the 2nd half, but I still expect him to decline faster than Bautista? What you said doesn't change my viewpoint. Because of factors like contact rate, body, past injuries etc.. I think Edwin will decline faster than Jose.

[Laika]

Edwin is 2 years younger and more or less Jose's offensive talent equal. As far as hitting is concerned, the reasonable expectation is that Jose will decline faster.

[burlingtonbandit]

Edwin is 2 years younger and more or less Jose's offensive talent equal. As far as hitting is concerned, the reasonable expectation is that Jose will decline faster.

 

I know that is the reasonable expectation but I'm saying I disagree with the common thinking and gave my reasons why I think it will happen.

[crazy47larry]

Did I not just say Edwin was better than Jose in the 2nd half, but I still expect him to decline faster than Bautista? What you said doesn't change my viewpoint. Because of factors like contact rate, body, past injuries etc.. I think Edwin will decline faster than Jose.

 

i'm showing he was the better hitter for 90% of the season, not just the 2nd half.

[BigCecil]

I know that is the reasonable expectation but I'm saying I disagree with the common thinking and gave my reasons why I think it will happen.

 

So...its a hunch? I stand by my view that there isn't a solid basis for your expectation. Could it happen? Sure. But you can say that about so many things in ball.

 

The probability that Edwin will remain an elite bat > than Jose (age) and when signing contracts with dollars that big, its a huge part of mgm risk assessment .

[Governator]

So...its a hunch? I stand by my view that there isn't a solid basis for your expectation. Could it happen? Sure. But you can say that about so many things in ball.

 

The probability that Edwin will remain an elite bat > than Jose (age) and when signing contracts with dollars that big, its a huge part of mgm risk assessment .

 

I know most predict JB will eventually be a DH within a year but keep in mind how bad his shoulder was last season that lead to a pretty awful result. I think he's still a very capable defender and if the shoulder is 100% he's likely right around an average defender, probably 0 UZR/150 over the next couple years. That's an asset that doesn't come with EE's bat and has additional value. Of course I'm making that prediction up like a magician but it seems quite plausible to me that JBats is not a pure DH in 2017 and maybe even 2018.

[admin]

Wouldn't surprise me if EE and Bau declined at the same rate. EE is younger but Bau is in better shape. Wouldn't surprise me if they were both gone, or possibly keep EE. Bau thinks he should be paid like an elite superstar into his 40s. Four years $90-$100M. Three years $75M would be better, but I doubt he takes three years.