Jays sign Gavin Floyd

[Terminator]

I can't see Hutch and Sanchez both starting in AAA. I think Chavez is the long man and Hutch is the 5th starter with Sanchez likely in the bullpen. If Sanchez wins the 5th spot then Hutch is in AAA.

 

Chavez

Floyd

Loup

Sanchez

Osuna

Cecil

Storen

 

That seems like how the pen will shake out. Maybe the rule 5 pick bumps out Floyd or Sanchez so they can start in AAA.

 

We need a minimum of 9 starters, probably more. We used 12 last season and we were relatively healthy. Taking 3 potential starters and burning them all up in the bullpen kills our depth. With what you have proposed who would be or 6th starter? Diamond?

[burlingtonbandit]

We need a minimum of 9 starters, probably more. We used 12 last season and we were relatively healthy. Taking 3 potential starters and burning them all up in the bullpen kills our depth. With what you have proposed who would be or 6th starter? Diamond?

 

I think Chavez would be the first in line much like how Estrada transitioned to the pen last year. You could put Floyd in AAA but considering he just signed a Major League deal I would think he will make the team.

 

I see the Jays bringing the best possible team up north, they aren't going to stash Hutch and Sanchez in AAA for depth if it makes the bullpen worse.

[Terminator]

I think Chavez would be the first in line much like how Estrada transitioned to the pen last year. You could put Floyd in AAA but considering he just signed a Major League deal I would think he will make the team.

 

I see the Jays bringing the best possible team up north, they aren't going to stash Hutch and Sanchez in AAA for depth if it makes the bullpen worse.

 

I understand the desire to stack the MLB team as much as possible to start the season but you have to think about depth. 2 weeks in to the season changes to the Major League roster are going to happen due to injury and ineffectiveness.

 

But let's go with that you have said. Chavez moves from longman to starter when we need another starter. But then what? Who would your first callup starter from AAA be when you inevitably need one? Scott Diamond? Then what about when we inevitably need our second one? I can't even think of a name unless one of Penny/LeBlanc/Hernandez actually stick around in Buffalo after spring training. Scott Copeland I guess?

 

With your strategy of stacking the bullpen with capable starters we are probably looking at a minimum of 20+ starts from the likes of Diamond/Copeland/etc. Yuck.

[Abomination]

Are we sure he's a reliever? A healthy Floyd is probably a reasonably effective arm. If they even get 5-10 starts from him before his arm falls off and they have to turn it over to a fresh Chavez/Osuna/Sanchez, that's $1M well spent.

 

Are we sure he's the long man if he isn't a starter? He has a devastating curve, so add 2 or 3 mph on the fastball coming out of the pen, and he could very easily be a well above average normal reliever.

[burlingtonbandit]

I understand the desire to stack the MLB team as much as possible to start the season but you have to think about depth. 2 weeks in to the season changes to the Major League roster are going to happen due to injury and ineffectiveness.

 

But let's go with that you have said. Chavez moves from longman to starter when we need another starter. But then what? Who would your first callup starter from AAA be when you inevitably need one? Scott Diamond? Then what about when we inevitably need our second one? I can't even think of a name unless one of Penny/LeBlanc/Hernandez actually stick around in Buffalo after spring training. Scott Copeland I guess?

 

With your strategy of stacking the bullpen with capable starters we are probably looking at a minimum of 20+ starts from the likes of Diamond/Copeland/etc. Yuck.

 

The Jays have said Sanchez's role will depend on what gives them the best chance to win. I take that if hutch looks good then Hutch starts and Sanchez goes into the pen. I'm just reiterating what the Blue Jays have said.

 

If hutch or Happ blows their arm out in May I'm sure they will find an alternative to Scott Diamond starting 20 games.

[Laika]

Getting closer and closer to the holy triumvirate of Sanchez, Osuna and Hutchison getting a chance to develop as starters in AAA!

 

And Hutchison needs to develop what, exactly? A better ERA?

[CHRIS]

Or maybe he can straighten out his slider

 

Seems counterproductive.

[Sorrow]

Any word on if it's a MiLB or MLB deal? If it's an MLB deal I'd assume he's either a swing man or the fifth starter.

[Inklink]

What more? s***ing on the new Staff? I know it's your gig, but...

 

I meant I like this "move".

 

Shill-piro?

 

f***ing lame.

 

Obviously you missed this post on the first page:

 

18 posts and not one "more useless garbage from Shill-piro" post. Well done gang!

 

Get well soon Spanky!

[Frag]

And Hutchison needs to develop what, exactly? A better ERA?

 

I still hold out hope for Hutch (he's 25). Right now, he's a mystery wrapped in an enigma.

[KingKat]

I still hold out hope for Hutch (he's 25). Right now, he's a mystery wrapped in an enigma.

 

bundled in a cliché

[Laika]

I still hold out hope for Hutch (he's 25). Right now, he's a mystery wrapped in an enigma.

 

I don't think it's that complicated yet. The peripherals are good so reasonable people should expect him to roughly match those indicators going forward.

 

Estrada might be a bigger 2016 mystery than Hutch.

[burlingtonbandit]

In the first half Hutch wasn't that bad. He had the same peripherals as Yordano Ventura and he was sent down as well. Now their 2nd half's were drastically different but I don't think its unreasonable to expect Hutch to be the 3rd best pitcher on the staff this season.

[Cyborg]

Hutch has almost 400 IP of 4.00 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA and is just 25. I don't see any real reason why his career ERA is a full run higher than his peripherals.

[Laika]

Hutch has almost 400 IP of 4.00 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA and is just 25. I don't see any real reason why his career ERA is a full run higher than his peripherals.

 

Just inexperience and meatballs, man.

[Angrioter]

Well he skipped AAA. So whatever he didn't develop during that time, maybe command, since he frequently leaves his fastball in the heart of the plate. Or maybe he can straighten out his slider and finally decide what kind of velo and break works for him.

 

I think he has like 60 innings in AA and AAA in his career. So I don't know if he ever got enough time to experiment with different pitches either.

 

Mike Leake from college to MLB.

Hutchison will be ok, just let the kid pitch the ball.

[Angrioter]

Best 2016 season (over 100 IP)

1-Gavin Floyd

2-Yovanni Gallardo

[THANOS]

I don't think it's that complicated yet. The peripherals are good so reasonable people should expect him to roughly match those indicators going forward.

 

Estrada might be a bigger 2016 mystery than Hutch.

 

To be fair, they dipped quite noticeably in 2015 compared to 2014, so there is definitely something that happened outside of bad luck. He went from K'ing nearly 9/9IP in a full MLB season to around league average. All the while watching his K/BB% decrease as well.

 

http://i.snag.gy/vqGpp.jpg

http://i.snag.gy/GOTVY.jpg

Edited February 6, 2016 by THANOS

[thatoneguy]

To be fair, they dipped quite noticeably in 2015 compared to 2014, so there is definitely something that happened outside of bad luck. He went from K'ing nearly 9/9IP in a full MLB season to around league average. All the while watch is K/BB% decrease as well.

 

From what I saw, he had a hell of a time trying to keep his fastball down in the zone. He lost his command far too often and paid dearly for it.

[burlingtonbandit]

To be fair, they dipped quite noticeably in 2015 compared to 2014, so there is definitely something that happened outside of bad luck. He went from K'ing nearly 9/9IP in a full MLB season to around league average. All the while watch is K/BB% decrease as well.

 

http://i.snag.gy/vqGpp.jpg

http://i.snag.gy/GOTVY.jpg

 

I think its fair to say he lost confidence in the 2nd half of the season and it affected his performance. In the first half his strikeout rate was 21%, a little down from 2014 but still pretty good. In the 2nd half that dipped to 16.5%. Now I would say its more than just confidence but the talent is certainly there.

 

One interesting note is just how bad he was throwing out of the stretch.

 

Bases empty- 22.5% K-Rate and 4.8% BB rate

 

Runners on base- 15.5% K rate and 9% BB rate

[glory]

Floyd on a MLB deal means he's either the long man or the fifth starter. He finished last season as a reliever in the Indians pen, but I don't know whether they'd use him as a middle reliever. I guess we will see.

[Cyborg]

From what I saw, he had a hell of a time trying to keep his fastball down in the zone. He lost his command far too often and paid dearly for it.

 

For a non groundball pitcher, up in the zone is better than down with a fastball.

[TheHurl]

Hutch will be fantastic this year. They just won't let him see the batting order a third time. His numbers early in the game last year appear to be an anomaly but his numbers have never been good 3rd time through the lineup. Put him on the Erasmo plan.

[THANOS]

For a non groundball pitcher, up in the zone is better than down with a fastball.

 

Perhaps, but that's usually due to the spin rate or velocity. I'm not sure what the spin rate on Hutch's fastball is but I doubt it's anything special, and we know his average velocity is not overpowering. There's also the fact that his fastball was generally being grooved right down the middle of the plate where most hitters can barrel up the easiest.

[burlingtonbandit]

Hutch does really well when he elevates the fastball. I remember the Canada day game vs the Brewers in 2014 he dominated using the high fastball. I think he was perfect through 5 and had like 8Ks most of them on high fastballs. The problem is when he throws it low and in the middle of the plate.

[THANOS]

Hutch does really well when he elevates the fastball. I remember the Canada day game vs the Brewers in 2014 he dominated using the high fastball. I think he was perfect through 5 and had like 8Ks most of them on high fastballs. The problem is when he throws it low and in the middle of the plate.

 

This is true. The biggest issue is the amount of times he does this:

 

http://i.imgur.com/PJWYWVe.gif?1

 

I watched all of his starts and it seemed like the majority of his fastballs were in that location, straight down the middle and flat.

 

Even when he was getting lucky and getting people out, like in the Houston game, he was still locating meatballs, he just got away with it at times.

 

http://i.imgur.com/TJ5e98i.gif?1

[Abomination]

Hutch does really well when he elevates the fastball. I remember the Canada day game vs the Brewers in 2014 he dominated using the high fastball. I think he was perfect through 5 and had like 8Ks most of them on high fastballs. The problem is when he throws it low and in the middle of the plate.

 

This was Hutch's fastball usage last year.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=571800&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC&time=month&minmax=ci&var=count&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=02/06/2016&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1