Relief Pitching for 2016 season (What is your Opinion)

[2lowitzki]

This is just what I'm thinking, but I think the Blue Jays have the weakest relief pitching in the AL East as of now.

Here are 7th inning, setup and closer trio for each teams in the division

 

Red Sox

Carson Smith-Koji Uehara-Craig Kimbrel

 

Yankees

Delin Betances-Andrew Miller-Aroldis Chapman

 

Baltimore

Michal Givens-Darren O'Day-Zach Britton

 

Rays

Steve Geltz-Brad Boxberger-Jake McGee (It will be either McGee or Boxberger for the closing job)

 

Blue Jays

??-Brett Cecil-Roberto Osuna

 

I really think the Blue Jays made huge mistake when they traded Liam Hendricks to Oakland for Jesse Chavez..

If Hendricks could keep his momentum going for the 2016 season, he could have been one of the best 7th or 8th inning guy in the league.

And I also think putting Aaron Sanchez in the rotation is a gamble as well.

 

Right now, there are only.. few pitchers remaining in the free agent market who can potentially be 7th or 8th inning guy

Looks like Clippard and Bastardo are the only two.

 

If they don't improve their pitching (especially on the relief), Mark Shapiro deserves to get murdered by the random Jays fans.

I have to say they have to keep their momentum going for 2016... and not rebuild.....

[THANOS]

There are moves left to be made, just not sure if they'll happen.

 

1) Ben Revere trade to ARI for Delgado

2) Sign Blanton with Revere savings

3) Sign Seung-hwan Oh with what's left under the budget

 

Those three could afford us to send either Sanchez or Osuna to AAA to start for the 1st 4 1/2 months of the season, before being re-called and thrown into the bullpen in advance of the post-season run.

 

Those would be the moves I would make, all other things equal of course (pending the FA's actually want to come here, and Stewart buys Revere's AVG and Speed as huge selling points).

 

Then you could have a BP like this for the 1st half of the year:

 

CL: Cecil

SU: Blanton/Oh

3: Blanton/Oh

4: Delgado

5: Sanchez

6: Loup

7: Biagini

 

And then you add Osuna, and send 1 of Sanchez/Biagini/Loup down in the August.

 

Even if you just trade Revere for Delgado and sign only 1 of Blanton or Oh, you could still allow Osuna to start in AAA and just roll with a 6 man pen (or 7 man with Chavez/Hutch as a 2nd long man), so either way, you'd be sitting pretty.

[RealAccountant]

Sanchez is a reliever

 

I think almost everyone has mentioned that Hendrik's trade was a mistake especially after the happ signing

 

Right now they are two relievers short. Assuming Chavez starts in the pen you have

 

Osuna

Cecil

Sanchez

Loup

Chavez

 

That leaves 2 holes. Lots of people assuming Delabar is in, but not so sure.

 

With Bullpens though you never know Elite guys turn into bums overnight. I think I've deliberation has put this team in a tough position. Probably two AAA guys will round up the pen.

[RealAccountant]

There are moves left to be made, just not sure if they'll happen.

 

1) Ben Revere trade to ARI for Delgado

2) Sign Blanton with Revere savings

3) Sign Seung-hwan Oh with what's left under the budget

 

Those three could afford us to send either Sanchez or Osuna to AAA to start for the 1st 4 1/2 months of the season, before being re-called and thrown into the bullpen in advance of the post-season run.

 

Those would be the moves I would make, all other things equal of course (pending the FA's actually want to come here, and Stewart buys Revere's AVG and Speed as huge selling points).

 

Why in the world would you put proven mlb pitchers in the minors for most of the season

[2lowitzki]

There are moves left to be made, just not sure if they'll happen.

 

1) Ben Revere trade to ARI for Delgado

2) Sign Blanton with Revere savings

3) Sign Seung-hwan Oh with what's left under the budget

 

Those three could afford us to send either Sanchez or Osuna to AAA to start for the 1st 4 1/2 months of the season, before being re-called and thrown into the bullpen in advance of the post-season run.

 

Those would be the moves I would make, all other things equal of course (pending the FA's actually want to come here, and Stewart buys Revere's AVG and Speed as huge selling points).

 

Then you could have a BP like this for the 1st half of the year:

 

CL: Cecil

SU: Blanton/Oh

3: Blanton/Oh

4: Delgado

5: Sanchez

6: Loup

7: Biagini

 

And then you add Osuna, and send 1 of Sanchez/Biagini/Loup down in the August.

 

Even if you just trade Revere for Delgado and sign only 1 of Blanton or Oh, you could still allow Osuna to start in AAA and just roll with a 6 man pen (or 7 man with Chavez/Hutch as a 2nd long man), so either way, you'd be sitting pretty.

 

 

I'm from Korea and I know a lot about Seung Whan Oh..

 

I know he has very good fastball.. His velocity is around mid 90s..

However, I don't know if he will be successful in the MLB level.. since mid 90 fastball is just an average for the relief pitchers.

[THANOS]

Why in the world would you put proven mlb pitchers in the minors for most of the season

 

Because I see Osuna as a much better starter than reliever, and want to see him ready to start and contribute 130-170 IP by 2017 when Dickey and Chavez leave via FA. He can always be re-called in August in time for the stretch run, there's nothing wrong with that. But wasting another year of his development in the BP, with his amazing stuff, and waiting until 2017 for him to start, when you a) don't know what type of results you'll get learning in the majors, and will only get 110-130 IP max, is not the greatest strategy.

 

At least this way you'll get the learning curve and innings in the books in AAA where he's given the opportunity to work through an adjustment period.

[THANOS]

I'm from Korea and I know a lot about Seung Whan Oh..

 

I know he has very good fastball.. His velocity is around mid 90s..

However, I don't know if he will be successful in the MLB level.. since mid 90 fastball is just an average for the relief pitchers.

 

He has good K rates, and his slider is supposed to be elite, have you seen him pitch? I'm interested to know what you think of his swinging strike ability, his composure, and if he's tough to square up.

Edited December 29, 2015 by THANOS

[RealAccountant]

How do you think Osuna will feel about making a minor league salary for 4.5 months. How would you feel if after a successful mlb season I told you, hey Thanos great season hope you enjoyed all the perks and thrills of being a major league ball player. Oh yeah your gonna be in AAA next season making peanuts and no one will see you back home. Your getting demoted just cause.

 

Lol. Things don't work like that. Clubs owe something to their players too. It's not about just being a paper GM. People have lives they have established they put down roots. Do you know how hard it is for a GM to just demore a player overall? When a player is at the MLB level they make mlb dollars when they go down they make peanuts. They have wives gfs kids

 

Osuna worked his butt off last year and stepped in when this team needed him.

[glory]

It's pretty clear that Osuna and Sanchez will both be in the bullpen. Shapiro knows what this team is in 2016 and those two present far greater value in the pen than they would in a rotation with many starters likely projected to be better than them in 2016. In 2017, that could change, but for 2016, given where the payroll is projected to be and the internal options available, I can't see any scenario where those two are not in the back end of the bullpen.

 

Blame Alex for making them relievers before they developed into SP's. This is their reality now, at least for the time being.

Edited December 29, 2015 by glory

[burlingtonbandit]

Certainly looks like the Hendriks move was a mistake (even if you were going to trade a reliever Osuna probably gets you a ton more) but you gotta move past it now. There are still some good relief options on the market.

 

I mean last year everyone was saying the same thing and the pen turned out to be pretty good.

[jokinghazard]

I figured that after not giving David Price $31 million and not giving Mark Lowe $5.5 million (which is a steal), that they would use that remaining $36 million and the increased payroll to get, I don't know, ANYBODY!

 

Estrada and Happ are 25 million, Thole is 800k, Chavez is making around 1.5 mill more than Hendriks, Barney's getting $1 million. So that's about $28.3 million they've spent for the upcoming year.

 

They have around $8 million leftover (and they're owned by Rogers) and they missed out on signing Sipp, Petit, Soria (who's expensive though) or Shawn Kelley. They also lost Francis (who was bad anyways), Buehrle, and Hawkins. The bullpen is just a gaping black hole and they aren't even trying to fix it. Meanwhile the Yankees got Chapman and the Red Sox got Price, and they Jays gained 2 starters who might be decent.

[Governator]

I figured that after not giving David Price $31 million and not giving Mark Lowe $5.5 million (which is a steal), that they would use that remaining $36 million and the increased payroll to get, I don't know, ANYBODY!

 

Estrada and Happ are 25 million, Thole is 800k, Chavez is making around 1.5 mill more than Hendriks, Barney's getting $1 million. So that's about $28.3 million they've spent for the upcoming year.

 

They have around $8 million leftover (and they're owned by Rogers) and they missed out on signing Sipp, Petit, Soria (who's expensive though) or Shawn Kelley. They also lost Francis (who was bad anyways), Buehrle, and Hawkins. The bullpen is just a gaping black hole and they aren't even trying to fix it. Meanwhile the Yankees got Chapman and the Red Sox got Price, and they Jays gained 2 starters who might be decent.

 

You can't just say since they didn't give Price 31mm then they must have 31mm to spend elsewhere. Also regarding your presumed 8mm of flexibility, does that include upcoming arbitration salaries such as Donaldson's 8 million dollar projected salary raise?

[RealAccountant]

What the f*** are you talking about? The kid pretty much skipped the minor leagues which is unheard of. He was one of the youngest players making an MLB salary. And if they were to demote him to turn him into a starter he would stand to make tens of millions of dollars more than he would as a reliever.

 

Do you really think he is thinking about 6-7 years from now?

[Krylian]

What the f*** are you talking about? The kid pretty much skipped the minor leagues which is unheard of. He was one of the youngest players making an MLB salary. And if they were to demote him to turn him into a starter he would stand to make tens of millions of dollars more than he would as a reliever.

 

You must not be familiar with RA's work around here.

[Spanky99]

lol @ Shapiro deserves to get murdered.

[500LevelSTH]

Relief pitching wont matter much in all the 8-4 games Jays will be in.

[HERPDERP]

Because I see Osuna as a much better starter than reliever, and want to see him ready to start and contribute 130-170 IP by 2017 when Dickey and Chavez leave via FA. He can always be re-called in August in time for the stretch run, there's nothing wrong with that. But wasting another year of his development in the BP, with his amazing stuff, and waiting until 2017 for him to start, when you a) don't know what type of results you'll get learning in the majors, and will only get 110-130 IP max, is not the greatest strategy.

 

At least this way you'll get the learning curve and innings in the books in AAA where he's given the opportunity to work through an adjustment period.

 

Having Osuna in the bullpen will have more of a contribution to the 2016 team than to have him pitch for the majority of the season in the minors then get called up for a starting role. Our bullpen is weak as f*** and we need him there.

[THANOS]

Having Osuna in the bullpen will have more of a contribution to the 2016 team than to have him pitch for the majority of the season in the minors then get called up for a starting role. Our bullpen is weak as f*** and we need him there.

 

I didn't say he would be called up to "start", I said he would be re-called to join the bullpen in time for the stretch run in August. That would be 2 months of guaranteed BP contribution and potentially more if we reach the playoffs. At least this way, though, you could stretch him out as a starter for the first 4 months so his innings will be high enough for him to start all of 2017 without being shutdown half way through. I don't see how that would weaken up that bad in 2016 since we would get him in the BP when the pressure is the highest.

[Brownie19]

Do you really think he is thinking about 6-7 years from now?

 

Just give it up. What MikeM said is spot on.

[Brownie19]

I figured that after not giving David Price $31 million and not giving Mark Lowe $5.5 million (which is a steal), that they would use that remaining $36 million and the increased payroll to get, I don't know, ANYBODY!

 

Estrada and Happ are 25 million, Thole is 800k, Chavez is making around 1.5 mill more than Hendriks, Barney's getting $1 million. So that's about $28.3 million they've spent for the upcoming year.

 

They have around $8 million leftover (and they're owned by Rogers) and they missed out on signing Sipp, Petit, Soria (who's expensive though) or Shawn Kelley. They also lost Francis (who was bad anyways), Buehrle, and Hawkins. The bullpen is just a gaping black hole and they aren't even trying to fix it. Meanwhile the Yankees got Chapman and the Red Sox got Price, and they Jays gained 2 starters who might be decent.

 

This is a really bad first post...

[Governator]

Why can't Osuna start at the big league level, because you think he will only get 3 innings per start out of him? There is a lot missed value having him start in the minors for 4 months.

[THANOS]

Why can't Osuna start at the big league level, because you think he will only get 3 innings per start out of him? There is a lot missed value having him start in the minors for 4 months.

 

Because the rotation is pretty full currently, and he has more room for error in AAA. I would be fine with him as the 5th starter in the majors, but it leaves no room for error, and I wouldn't want a panic to start if he struggles in his initial adjustment, which could mean he would either be bumped back to the BP too early, or demoted after a few starts to AAA to continue starting (which could be potentially bad for his psyche as a young 21 year old pitcher).

[Orgfiller]

Friendly tip: don't reply or read any of RealAccountant's posts. He's a well established troll, ignoring his every opinion would be best.

[Dick_Pole]

I think people are focusing too much on RealAccountant's troll status and poor reasoning/communication skills and are overlooking that he has a valid point. Osuna has a chance to reach free agency the same time as Heyward. He pitched last year deserving of a MLB roster spot at least going into spring training.

 

The Jays are in win-now mode with ok depth at starting pitching and weak depth at relief. We all hope that Osuna can develop into a starter. But based on his injury history and lack of workload to date there's no guarantee this ever happens. But what the Jays have in him right now is a perfectly capable late inning reliever who should only get better with time.

 

Now I'm optimistic that the Jays can fill out RP roles so if the team has 7 good relievers at the end of March excluding Osuna, by all means try to make him into a starter in the minors. But if there is not, there's no way this team should be creating a hole just for the *chance* that Osuna turns into a good starter. If the season goes to hell, sure look to what Osuna can do for the team in 2018 or 2019. But right now the team has to bring its best 25-man roster to Toronto in April, player development comes secondary.

[theweave]

Here is my thoughts of the 2016 BP on opening day, in no particular order:

 

Loup

Delabar

Biagini

Osuna

Cecil

Sanchez

 

Plus the guy they got from Oakland who is both a LHP and a RHP, can't remember his name though. Also Delabar may be in there, since he is out of options. If he has a good spring, I can't see him not being in the pen. They can't option him to AAA as he would get claimed in a flash.

 

You could also have Chavez as the swing man too, depending on who actually makes the team as a starter.

 

So really, as I see it, there is a "full" bullpen right now. It could be improved on for sure, but it is not as dire as some suggest. There are moveable parts there, and there will be spring competition which could change the look of it for sure.

[Gorlak]

I think the Jays will underperform their run pythag with this bullpen. I have absolutely no proof, but I have always thought a poor bullpen leads to bad sequencing results, and vise versa.

[Spanky99]

I think the Jays will underperform their run pythag with this bullpen. I have absolutely no proof, but I have always thought a poor bullpen leads to bad sequencing results, and vise versa.

 

That's interesting, why do you think that, pressure on the offense? I don't believe in that(if so), our offense put up big innings all the time last year.

[Jimcanuck]

I think the Jays will underperform their run pythag with this bullpen. I have absolutely no proof, but I have always thought a poor bullpen leads to bad sequencing results, and vise versa.

 

pretty sure I read an article showing that offence driven run pythag does not translate to wins as much as defensive, pitching driven

 

jays had a lot of blowout wins

[Dick_Pole]

pretty sure I read an article showing that offence driven run pythag does not translate to wins as much as defensive, pitching driven

 

jays had a lot of blowout wins

 

They already had to reduce the exponent to less than 2 to account for the impact that high scoring teams/eras have greater possibility of more variance and therefore more losses (or wins for a negative variance) than expected given a certain run differential. If its still a consistent issue then maybe the Pythag calculation needs to be adjusted some more? The argument shouldn't be that superior pitching teams with corresponding inferior offenses consistently outperform high scoring teams with poor pitching, but that Pythag should be adjusted further to reflect the possibility of random variance.

 

http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/baseball-reference-faqs/

 

Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by

 

(Runs Scored)^1.83

---------------------------------------------------------

(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

 

The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but this has proven to be a little more accurate.

[Terminator]

The bullpen will be fine. Doesn't look great right now but it also isn't exactly terrible either. We've got a couple months until ST starts to tinker with it as well.