JA Happ Signing: Good/Bad?

[THANOS]

uh... you do realize how bad this post is right?

 

Maybe I should have said, I'm not one who has ever complained about it on here before. That said, there's nothing incorrect about my post, and I'm sure many would agree, based on some of the opinions expressed often on here.

[o2cui2i]

Maybe I should have said, I'm not one who has ever complained about it on here before. That said, there's nothing incorrect about my post, and I'm sure many would agree, based on some of the opinions expressed often on here.

 

yes, but we are not going to let the board run wild and become the old board. it's a choice that is up to the mods. We have let more threads be going during the off season, but we are NOT going to let every wandering thought become a new thread. that's just not going to happen. best to learn to live with it.

[TBJ12]

Anybody have any numbers on the benefit of lefty-righty balance in the rotation? I suspect that it's probably not something truly important but it might make Happ (or any decent lefty) slightly more valuable to a team without any other lefty starting pitchers.

 

I mentioned the same thing in the other Happ thread. I also questioned whether or not a left handed pitcher would have any influence on the Dickey effect.

[KingKat]

I mentioned the same thing in the other Happ thread. I also questioned whether or not a left handed pitcher would have any influence on the Dickey effect.

 

I knew someone had brought up a similar question but I didn't remember who.

[KingKat]

I see what you did there. I'll bet Gsnarls is hurt. lol

 

And poor Deadpool is besides himself.

[Spanky99]

Agreed. Thanks Hurl, KingKat, and North.

 

Rekt!

[Olerud363]

I'm not one who complains about the moderating, other than the ridiculous thread merging that prevents great articles/reports from being noticed, hindering great conversation on said posts, and overall making the forum a tad boring compared to other forums around.

 

Other than that, though, I appreciate the strong pimp hand against trolls.

 

The thread merging is a little much... It really does prevent great articles/discussions and such from being noticed.

[Olerud363]

yes, but we are not going to let the board run wild and become the old board. it's a choice that is up to the mods. We have let more threads be going during the off season, but we are NOT going to let every wandering thought become a new thread. that's just not going to happen. best to learn to live with it.

 

If the thread isn't popular, no one will post on it, and it will disappear quickly enough. It used to be that this was a great place to come, scan the thread titles, and quickly understand what was happening in baseball and blue jay land that day...

[wamco]

Definitely quantity over quality on this forum

[DerangedIdoit]

Next year`s free agent pitching class seems weak. This years is very rich in pitching and the closest I`ve seen supply meet demand in a while. I`m pretty sure this will result in the dispersion and dilution of the amount of competition any player of interest on the free agent market or trade block will recieve. This should ultimately drive down prices as opposed to next year and increase the likelihood of attaining a quality piece since there is a saturation of options.

 

Dickey and Chavez (not that I want Chavez anywhere near the rotation) will be gone next year without realistic expectations of being extended or resigned. That leave two gaps and voids in the rotation with a paltry `17 free agent class to replenish from. I feel we need to sign/trade for another quality pitcher while we have a great opportunity to do so and to cement the foreseeable future in the rotation. We're also on the winning curve and have a real shot at winning the title if we do. On the plus side we can skip Dickey in the rotation during the playoffs if we grab another quality arm.

[Spanky99]

Yeah, Strasburg is gonna get Paid!!!

[ElNik2013]

Personally, I would have all 3 of Hutchison, Sanchez and Osuna in AAA this year. Osuna in particular could throw 100-110 IP this year split between starting in AAA and the big league pen down the stretch and then in '17 he could maybe approach 150 IP with the big team.

 

Hutch, we know, can be a #5 in '17. Sanchez is an unknown but I do know there is no opportunity cost of having him start games in AAA forever if the alternative is that he's a reliever who needs a clean inning and can't get strikeouts. He provides no value in his current role anyway.

 

For this to happen, we'd just have to spend 8-10M max to fill their spots in the pen. But the potential pay off down the road could be so much higher. We can't count on free agency to fill our rotation.

 

 

I'd agree with this. Spend some money on BP, as risky as that may be, in exchange for development and rotation depth. And it could end up saving them money down the line. Although, I tend to like Sanchez as a 2-3 inning guy in the BP. This could give him a chance to develop secondary pitches.

[BTS]

Personally, I would have all 3 of Hutchison, Sanchez and Osuna in AAA this year. Osuna in particular could throw 100-110 IP this year split between starting in AAA and the big league pen down the stretch and then in '17 he could maybe approach 150 IP with the big team.

 

Hutch, we know, can be a #5 in '17. Sanchez is an unknown but I do know there is no opportunity cost of having him start games in AAA forever if the alternative is that he's a reliever who needs a clean inning and can't get strikeouts. He provides no value in his current role anyway.

 

For this to happen, we'd just have to spend 8-10M max to fill their spots in the pen. But the potential pay off down the road could be so much higher. We can't count on free agency to fill our rotation.

 

It's hard to have strong opinions about Osuna without knowing what experts think about his mechanics and ability to hold up under a starter's work load. There's a lot of value in having him contribute 1-2 wins at the back of the pen. I'm fine with leaving him there. Sanchez I would absolutely leave. This is a guy who has never had good results as a starter and has looked dominant in relief. I want to see what he can do in 70 innings from the pen next year.

[THANOS]

But at the same time, do those opinions even matter until the guy actually gets a shot? If you gave them 20 year old Osuna and 20 year old Stroman, how many would pick Osuna? All of them lol?

 

The thing with Osuna is that he can still be in the pen down the stretch. Hell, so can Sanchez. But they can be stretched out at the start of the year and given a shot. Then when they approach their limits you just put them in the pen.

 

Say you re-sign Lowe and sign someone like Blanton. For April-May-June you're closing with Lowe and setting up with Cecil and Blanton (who kills righties now) or whoever else you find in camp. Come July, you add Osuna and Sanchez for the stretch. To me that makes sense. Then at least in '17 you have the option of putting Osuna or Sanchez in the rotation because they have innings.

 

Sanchez has had his moments in the pen but he doesn't get strikeouts and we saw how that is a problem. You can't have your high leverage guys come into a tight game and get babip'd to death. So for me, I'd rather Sanchez flame out in AAA then be a reliever you can't truly count on in high leverage. I just don't see value there long term. I'd rather he just become a s*****, innings eating 4.20 ERA #5 SP.

 

I get the hate for Sanchez on this board. I would trade him if a nice deal came along. But there is still a little something there. He needs something that gets lefties out. He introduced a bit of a cutter this year. He needs a change up too. If he can even hold his own against LHB, he goes into the rotation at the back end. 60% GB rate is a big plus in this park.

 

All I'm saying is that Sanchez in the pen is a sell low move. You're locking him into a valueless position on the club. He's never going to be an elite RP because he can't come into games with men on base and he has platoon splits. And if somehow, some way he manages to fix those issues, he becomes a starter. So the pen is pointless in my opinion.

 

Quality post. I couldn't agree more with everything you said. If money wasn't an issue, and all else was equal, I would sign Lowe, Bastardo, and Blanton. I would also inquire about Carter Capps and see what he would cost (he could be an excellent cheap closer).

 

Bastardo and Blanton are consistent as they get so the risk for volatility should be low with them. Capps would be a risky bet, as would Lowe (given his track record), but either/both would be good to bet on.

 

Throwing Osuna and Sanchez in AAA just makes so much sense to me. f*** the "win now mode" mentality, I think the suggestions you/I have would be suitable replacements until September when they get called back up and put in the BP. I'd just like to see Osuna/Sanchez get an opportunity to work around 130 innings each this year, so, in 2017, they can step in the rotation in place of Chavez/Dickey.

[Spanky99]

But at the same time, do those opinions even matter until the guy actually gets a shot? If you gave them 20 year old Osuna and 20 year old Stroman, how many would pick Osuna? All of them lol?

 

The thing with Osuna is that he can still be in the pen down the stretch. Hell, so can Sanchez. But they can be stretched out at the start of the year and given a shot. Then when they approach their limits you just put them in the pen.

 

Say you re-sign Lowe and sign someone like Blanton. For April-May-June you're closing with Lowe and setting up with Cecil and Blanton (who kills righties now) or whoever else you find in camp. Come July, you add Osuna and Sanchez for the stretch. To me that makes sense. Then at least in '17 you have the option of putting Osuna or Sanchez in the rotation because they have innings.

 

Sanchez has had his moments in the pen but he doesn't get strikeouts and we saw how that is a problem. You can't have your high leverage guys come into a tight game and get babip'd to death. So for me, I'd rather Sanchez flame out in AAA then be a reliever you can't truly count on in high leverage. I just don't see value there long term. I'd rather he just become a s*****, innings eating 4.20 ERA #5 SP.

 

I get the hate for Sanchez on this board. I would trade him if a nice deal came along. But there is still a little something there. He needs something that gets lefties out. He introduced a bit of a cutter this year. He needs a change up too. If he can even hold his own against LHB, he goes into the rotation at the back end. 60% GB rate is a big plus in this park.

 

All I'm saying is that Sanchez in the pen is a sell low move. You're locking him into a valueless position on the club. He's never going to be an elite RP because he can't come into games with men on base and he has platoon splits. And if somehow, some way he manages to fix those issues, he becomes a starter. So the pen is pointless in my opinion.

 

I believe a lot of people have been of this ilk prior to last years ST, problem is AA brought Osuna/Sanchez and Castro up from the get go, I don't see this club doing this this season, I could see Hutch in Buffalo, the other two, not so much. Osuna could still be in that type of flip next year, seeing as he's so young, but I'm sure the clock has ran out on Sanchez as a SP.

 

I'm with you though, I'd certainly be in on a few late inning guys, and would go that route, it makes perfect sense to me, you, and a s*** tonne more folks, question remains, does this FO?

[RealAccountant]

Horrible deal for a National League pitcher. Zimmer is going to struggle facing the big boy team.

 

If that strikeouts per 9 dips any further he could be really bad.

[Travis_Snider]

I like

[Boxcar]

I guess I'm disappointed because I feel like Lackey would have cost the same amount. I don't think "bad" so much as underwhelming.

[Spanky99]

I guess I'm disappointed because I feel like Lackey would have cost the same amount. I don't think "bad" so much as underwhelming.

 

Lackey wants to stay in the NL, I'd bet he'd play for peanuts again, if he could stay in STL.

[Harvey_Specter]

I used to do this with AA, rate the move now so you can't second guess it in August or September with hind sight. If you were GM, would you sign Happ for 3 years at 36 million? Good or bad signing?

 

For the first 10 seconds after reading the news I was like WTF! Then realized for 12 mil this is a great depth signing, with upside, and no draft pick lost. 3/36 looks a lot better then say a dream 5/130-150 Price signing if he were to give us a discount. 7 years is just scary.

 

I vote good move and so far am on the Shapiro train.

 

I voted "BAD".

 

While depth is good, if this money prevents us budget from signing a higher quality arm, it's bad. If we still get a high quality arm then I'll change my vote to Good.

[o2cui2i]

I voted "BAD".

 

While depth is good, if this money prevents us budget from signing a higher quality arm, it's bad. If we still get a high quality arm then I'll change my vote to Good.

 

highly doubt they were going to spend more than this... this might be better than what they wanted to spend, we don't know and never will.

[Harvey_Specter]

highly doubt they were going to spend more than this... this might be better than what they wanted to spend, we don't know and never will.

 

Surely the market for Happ should not be this expensive. Shouldn't it be more like 2/20? Is this the Toronto premium?

 

Unless...did the Jays scouts really believe this to be their targeted guy who will maintain his recent performance level? If not, it seems strange to overpay. And for the record, I hope they are correct like they were with Estrada

[Grant77]

Next year`s free agent pitching class seems weak. This years is very rich in pitching and the closest I`ve seen supply meet demand in a while. I`m pretty sure this will result in the dispersion and dilution of the amount of competition any player of interest on the free agent market or trade block will recieve. This should ultimately drive down prices as opposed to next year and increase the likelihood of attaining a quality piece since there is a saturation of options.

 

Dickey and Chavez (not that I want Chavez anywhere near the rotation) will be gone next year without realistic expectations of being extended or resigned. That leave two gaps and voids in the rotation with a paltry `17 free agent class to replenish from. I feel we need to sign/trade for another quality pitcher while we have a great opportunity to do so and to cement the foreseeable future in the rotation. We're also on the winning curve and have a real shot at winning the title if we do. On the plus side we can skip Dickey in the rotation during the playoffs if we grab another quality arm.

 

Why do you say that? The team obviously likes Chavez and Dickey should remain a solid option with a reasonable price tag. He's a solid contributor that is well-liked by his teammates.

[Spanky99]

Surely the market for Happ should not be this expensive. Shouldn't it be more like 2/20? Is this the Toronto premium?

 

Unless...did the Jays scouts really believe this to be their targeted guy who will maintain his recent performance level? If not, it seems strange to overpay. And for the record, I hope they are correct like they were with Estrada

 

Likely the latter, and why are you consumed with the past, they're paying for future value? You know, likely why they traded Lind for Estrada, I sure as f*** didn't see the latter.

[ValiantJaysFan]

I was annoyed by this deal because I didn't like Happ the last time he was here and was so happy when he left. But then I stopped thinking of this as Price's replacement and started thinking of it as Buerhle's and now I don't hate it as much. Still not a fan though.

[King]

I was annoyed by this deal because I didn't like Happ the last time he was here and was so happy when he left. But then I stopped thinking of this as Price's replacement and started thinking of it as Buerhle's and now I don't hate it as much. Still not a fan though.

 

Seems like the general logic around these parts. Pretty wrong though.

[BTS]

Happ was legitimately awful to watch when he was walking 4/9 and looking like a true talent 4.5 ERA guy. He doesn't look like that guy anymore though. Last two years:

 

7.75 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 3.90 ERA, 3.81 xFIP over 330 IP. Happ with command is a legit SP3. We don't need Pirates Happ, we need 2013/2014 Happ.

[GoJays]

There was no Meh option so i had to take the NO route. IF Searage really did something and he is the best pitching coach in baseball so this may turn out better than I think. I know we have the best lineup in baseball but you need pitching in the playoffs and after Stroman it is a gamble.

 

Loved the Tigers deal with Zimmerman and wish we had done that deal instead.

[Spanky99]

Happ was legitimately awful to watch when he was walking 4/9 and looking like a true talent 4.5 ERA guy. He doesn't look like that guy anymore though. Last two years:

 

7.75 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 3.90 ERA, 3.81 xFIP over 330 IP. Happ with command is a legit SP3. We don't need Pirates Happ, we need 2013/2014 Happ.

 

Ding Ding Ding!!!

[Laika]

Steamer thinks JA Happ is worth...

 

2.0 * 8 = 16

1.5 * 8.64 = 12.96

1.0 * 9.33 = 9.33

+

=

$38.29 million

 

Contextual evidence also offers that he probably has a better than average chance of over-performing his projections.