Blue Jays sign J.A. Happ 3-years $36M

[o2cui2i]

I am good with calculation ;-)

 

great, don't give up your day job. lol the comedian career isn't going anywhere.

[Key22]

Olerud

 

I get what you're saying but a couple of points - the 92/93 team wasn't really the same as the 85 team in terms of what was on the field.

 

An Ace pitcher is typically a guy who can throw 9 inning complete game shutouts more often than your average middle of the road pitchers. Conventional wisdom exists because it's these guys, who when faced against league best offense teams can shut those teams out and win 1-0 in game seven. Pretty much the entire reason Jack Morris was in any discussion for hall of fame was based on his game 7 ten inning shutout. Teams like the 2001 Diamondbacks basically won riding Schilling and Johnson and lesser pitchers may very well have lost some of those tight games. The Yankee staff was solid but not great.

 

An Ace not on his game is beatable of course (see Price) but if the guy is on his game and not tipping pitches - you have a good chance the guy is going to pitch 8-9 innings 0-2 runs. This is better than your average middle of the rotation guy who goes 5-7 innings of 3-4 runs.

 

No Guarantees - it's about putting your team in the best position and giving them the best chance to win. I mean the Dodgers from a starting pitcher perspective should win - Kershaw/Greinke was arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball.

 

I think the Jays approach of going with a balanced pitching staff with depth is reasonable for the regular season - but in the head to heads in the playoffs - you need guys who can go 8ip with 2 runs or less to keep the games close enough to come back and have a chance. Even the mighty Jays offense was handily shut down a number of times - had we had better pitching - we may have won some of the low scoring games.

 

As the Jays players noted - they felt like they too would have beaten the Mets - does anyone truly feel that if we beat KC we'd lose to the METS? I doubt it. We were extremely close - lousy pitching let us down.

[burlingtonbandit]

When has it ever happened that a team only used 5 starters in a single season? It just never happens, you probably need good 6 starters and another 2-3 fringe ones to have a chance.

 

Well I'm not convinced Chavez is a much bigger upgrade than Hendriks as a spot starter/long man to justify losing 3 years and 4 million

[Grant77]

When has it ever happened that a team only used 5 starters in a single season? It just never happens, you probably need good 6 starters and another 2-3 fringe ones to have a chance.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BUF/1879.shtml

 

Check out these pitching stats.

 

For a more contemporary example, the 2001 Mariners had 6 starters make 155 starts. I believe a couple of the other 7 were made for rest purposes in September.

[BTS]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BUF/1879.shtml

 

Check out these pitching stats.

 

For a more contemporary example, the 2001 Mariners had 6 starters make 155 starts. I believe a couple of the other 7 were made for rest purposes in September.

 

Off the top of my head: Moyer, Garcia, Pineiro, Sele...?

[Grant77]

Off the top of my head: Moyer, Garcia, Pineiro, Sele...?

 

Paul Abbott went 17-4 lol. John Halama was the other guy, with Brett Tomko and Denny Stark making the other 7 starts, 3 after clinching.

[BTS]

Paul Abbott went 17-4 lol. John Halama was the other guy, with Brett Tomko and Denny Stark making the other 7 starts, 3 after clinching.

 

Wow, it's insane that the team won 115 games or whatever with shitbags like Abbott and Halama getting a ton of starts.

 

Their lineup was absolutely ridiculous.

[nextyear]

Wow, it's insane that the team won 115 games or whatever with shitbags like Abbott and Halama getting a ton of starts.

 

Their lineup was absolutely ridiculous.

 

 

I have to claim ignorance since I didn't follow baseball closely that year. But just looking at the stats their overall pitching/defense was the best in the AL in limiting runs allowed - http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=al&qual=0&type=0&season=2001&month=0&season1=2001&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a which was partly because of a great defense - http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=al&qual=0&type=0&season=2001&month=0&season1=2001&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

In all honesty I am just asking a question here: do you think their success at limiting runs was because of their excellent defense (based on the stats)? They also led the league in offense, scoring 927 runs in 162 games - http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2001&month=0&season1=2001&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d. It helped their pitching/defense that they played in a pitcher friendly ball park - http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&season=2001&teamid=0

 

Based strictly on the stats, the Mariners were a very well balanced team. Surprisingly, they lost the AL Championship to the Yankees 4 games to 1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_American_League_Championship_Series. PS: I thought that maybe the Mariners played in a weak division in 2001, but actually it appears that the AL West was stronger than the AL East in 2001 - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_standings#20011007

Edited November 30, 2015 by nextyear

[Laika]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BUF/1879.shtml

 

Check out these pitching stats.

 

For a more contemporary example, the 2001 Mariners had 6 starters make 155 starts. I believe a couple of the other 7 were made for rest purposes in September.

 

LOL

 

this dude pitched 75 complete games in an 80 game season: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whitewi01.shtml

[RealAccountant]

People here would have no problem at trading Pud Galvin for prospects

[crazy47larry]

You guys think they took a swing at Zimm but came up short, then moved on to Plan B? With the proximity of their signings it kinda makes me feel that way.

[BigCecil]

You guys think they took a swing at Zimm but came up short, then moved on to Plan B? With the proximity of their signings it kinda makes me feel that way.

 

I honestly don't think they ever seriously intended to or did make a play for the front line arms. I think their plan all along was to lean on the offense and bolster the rotation without breaking the bank and giving up picks. They may find a way to add to the front end later as the season unfolds if we are still in it.

[Frenchsoup]

You guys think they took a swing at Zimm but came up short, then moved on to Plan B? With the proximity of their signings it kinda makes me feel that way.

 

Wasn't it reported that Jays were all over Happ from the start of the offseason. He was clearly their target.

[Spanky99]

You guys think they took a swing at Zimm but came up short, then moved on to Plan B? With the proximity of their signings it kinda makes me feel that way.

 

Most likely, they wouldn't be doing their due dilligence, if not. They've kicked tires on everyone, I'm sure of it.

[Spanky99]

Wasn't it reported that Jays were all over Happ from the start of the offseason. He was clearly their target.

 

Yes, confirmed by Happ also, on SN last night.

[BigCecil]

Most likely, they wouldn't be doing their due dilligence, if not. They've kicked tires on everyone, I'm sure of it.

 

Sure, but there is a difference between kicking tires and taking a legit shot at signing. Even the posters here haven't been far off what the signings costs are showing.

[Spanky99]

I honestly don't think they ever seriously intended to or did make a play for the front line arms. I think their plan all along was to lean on the offense and bolster the rotation without breaking the bank and giving up picks. They may find a way to add to the front end later as the season unfolds if we are still in it.

 

Wasn't it reported that Jays were all over Happ from the start of the offseason. He was clearly their target.

 

As I've said, I'm sure they kicked tires on everyone, but everything points to you guys being bang on, hah, LaCava and Happ both commented on how aggressive the Jays were.

[Spanky99]

Sure, but there is a difference between kicking tires and taking a legit shot at signing. Even the posters here haven't been far off what the signings costs are showing.

 

Yup, see above.

[glory]

“We obviously had multiple holes to fill in our pitching staff, and our front-office team felt diversifying the risk among multiple pitchers who could start was important, both due to our need at the (major-league) level and our lack of Triple-A depth starting pitchers.” - Shapiro

 

I think the Jays were always looking at the cheaper end of the free agent pool. GIven their familiarity with Happ, and the fact that he was "fixed" by Searage, maybe it was a combination of value + perceived upside. Regardless, I don't think they ever seriously considered the more expensive FA's.

[crazy47larry]

right on. nice pulls guys. i dont mind that mindset for the most part. it feels like we havent had a real full rotation in ages. i'm so sick of seeing guys like Todd Redmond have important roles and eat up meaningful innings.

[art_vandelay275]

the first thing i thought about when i heard the news was the shapiro-huntington relationship and whether shapiro leveraged that to get some "inside info" on how "fixed" happ really is...