Jays acquire Jesse Chavez

[GD]

That doesn't affect his value.

[Frag]

That doesn't affect his value.

 

In terms of pitch framing? Unless it is accounted for, it can.

[GD]

In terms of pitch framing? Unless it is accounted for, it can.

 

If it is, then you're looking at it incorrectly. An objective analysis would attempt to adjust for these things that the pitcher cannot control himself, that's the entire point of DIPS. JFaS' xxFIP and TIPS, and other pitch-level statistics would all be useful here.

[Frag]

If it is, then you're looking at it incorrectly. An objective analysis would attempt to adjust for these things that the pitcher cannot control himself, that's the entire point of DIPS. JFaS' xxFIP and TIPS, and other pitch-level statistics would all be useful here.

 

That's what I'm getting at.

[Laika]

That's what I'm getting at.

 

GD's point is the WE should never think about pitch framing as affecting a pitcher's value, because we know better.

 

That it influences FIP can be thought of as a flaw in FIP, really. There's no sense in giving a pitcher credit for a catcher's skill.

 

That Chavez and Hendriks are switching between Vogt/Phegley and Russell Martin has no bearing on their trade values or the trade.

[Frag]

That it influences FIP can be thought of as a flaw in FIP, really. There's no sense in giving a pitcher credit for a catcher's skill.

 

That's what I meant. I used FIP-based metrics, which is affected by catching skill.

[FrozenRopes]

Rickey Romero

Joe Blanton

Brad Mills

Jo Jo Reyes

Chien Ming Wang

Aaron Laffey

Ramon Ortiz

 

That list is epic

[FrozenRopes]

Martin is a better catcher than either As catcher, there will be hidden value there. Estrada level potentially.

[Brownie19]

Martin is a better catcher than either As catcher, there will be hidden value there. Estrada level potentially.

 

Good point. Martin did wonders for Estrada...

[Jimcanuck]

this was a sell high on Hendriks for a guy with a better track record

 

understandable trade given the Jays circumstances

 

fair trade

 

The last 20 posts already covered by the above

[TilsonBritoFan]

I'll grant you that there is a chance that Chavez puts up a season like Estrada just did - about a 0.0001% chance.

 

However he also could be a decent #5 guy. But $5 million for a decent #5 guy, when we have cheaper options like Hutch to fill that roll is a waste of money.

 

My prediction for Chavez, if he is used as a starter for most of the year:

 

.500 pitcher 4.25-4.50 ERA, FIP around 4.00.

 

Nothing special. A guy who shouldn't be relied upon for much.

[Laika]

I'll grant you that there is a chance that Chavez puts up a season like Estrada just did - about a 0.0001% chance.

 

However he also could be a decent #5 guy. But $5 million for a decent #5 guy, when we have cheaper options like Hutch to fill that roll is a waste of money.

 

My prediction for Chavez, if he is used as a starter for most of the year:

 

.500 pitcher 4.25-4.50 ERA, FIP around 4.00.

 

Nothing special. A guy who shouldn't be relied upon for much.

 

4.00 FIP = comfortably above average starting pitcher. Like, 2.5 WAR in 200 innings.

 

Mark Buehrle as a Blue Jays had a 4.01 FIP and amassed 7.5 fWAR in 3 years.

 

Getting that for 4.7 million dollars is a pretty big chunk of surplus value

[Abomination]

I'll grant you that there is a chance that Chavez puts up a season like Estrada just did - about a 0.0001% chance.

 

However he also could be a decent #5 guy. But $5 million for a decent #5 guy, when we have cheaper options like Hutch to fill that roll is a waste of money.

 

My prediction for Chavez, if he is used as a starter for most of the year:

 

.500 pitcher 4.25-4.50 ERA, FIP around 4.00.

 

Nothing special. A guy who shouldn't be relied upon for much.

 

It's worth noting that only 12 teams had a starting pitcher TEAM FIP under 4.00 last year. Certainly Chavez isn't likely to be a high end starter, but he's a real nice option as your #4 or #5 guy.

[GD]

Oh we're making projections?

 

3.95 FIP in 170 IP which would be, what, 2.3 WAR? I think he'll be a slightly pleasant surprise.

[Laika]

If you organize Toronto's rotation by projected talent (Steamer600), Jesse Chavez actually slots into the #2 slot behind Stroman. Of course Steamer is probably way off on Estrada.

 

I think Chavez is certainly better than Hutchison, probably better than Dickey, and maybe better than Estrada.

[GD]

Some good points; 5 million for a 5th starter sucks, would rather opt for Hutch in that scenario. However, maybe we need someone who can put up 180 IP if necessary (perhaps if we trade Dickey?)

 

A 4.00 FIP would not be a 5th starter. Well, if it was, it would be a nice 5th starter. That's a 3 in a bad rotation or a 4 in a solid rotation.

 

Well, a contextual 4.00 FIP, including park effects. A park-adjusted FIP of 4.00 would be a 4/5 yeah, but I think he'll be better than that.

[GD]

If you organize Toronto's rotation by projected talent (Steamer600), Jesse Chavez actually slots into the #2 slot behind Stroman. Of course Steamer is probably way off on Estrada.

 

I think Chavez is certainly better than Hutchison, probably better than Dickey, and maybe better than Estrada.

 

Agreed except for Dickey. Dickey gives you a guaranteed 200 IP, with 2.5-3.5 (in his tenure so far) RA9-WAR along with the Dickey effect. He might have been a 4 win starter last year.

[Laika]

Agreed except for Dickey. Dickey gives you a guaranteed 200 IP, with 2.5-3.5 (in his tenure so far) RA9-WAR along with the Dickey effect. He might have been a 4 win starter last year.

 

Yeah you're right. Agree entirely. I kind of forgot the extent to which Dickey controls contact + the value of the Dickey effect.

 

Main point being that Hutch is clearly behind Chavez, and if anyone should be looked at as the #6 it's Drew.

[Atothe]

Yeah you're right. Agree entirely. I kind of forgot the extent to which Dickey controls contact + the value of the Dickey effect.

 

Main point being that Hutch is clearly behind Chavez, and if anyone should be looked at as the #6 it's Drew.

 

who's your 5th starter Osuna?

[o2cui2i]

Yeah you're right. Agree entirely. I kind of forgot the extent to which Dickey controls contact + the value of the Dickey effect.

 

Main point being that Hutch is clearly behind Chavez, and if anyone should be looked at as the #6 it's Drew.

 

is he that high on the depth list?

[Laika]

who's your 5th starter Osuna?

 

Well right now it's Hutch. This is just assuming they add one more quality arm. Hopefully someone to at least slot into the #2 slot, like Samardzija or Kuma.

 

Bump Hutch to Buffalo to work on some s*** and get his swing and miss slider back to form. Sign someone like Trevor Cahill for the MLB long relief / SP depth role. Then you're dancin'

 

Stroman

Kuma/Smardjz

Dickey

Estrada

Chavez

Hutch/Cahill

Cahill/Hutch

 

Flip some rocks over for interesting minor league contract dudes to fill the #8 and #9 positions on the totem.

 

Personally I think Sanchez and Osuna should just be left in the pen, for good. Sanchez for talent reasons and Osuna for injury risk reasons.

[BigRed]

I'll grant you that there is a chance that Chavez puts up a season like Estrada just did - about a 0.0001% chance.

 

However he also could be a decent #5 guy. But $5 million for a decent #5 guy, when we have cheaper options like Hutch to fill that roll is a waste of money.

 

My prediction for Chavez, if he is used as a starter for most of the year:

 

.500 pitcher 4.25-4.50 ERA, FIP around 4.00.

 

Nothing special. A guy who shouldn't be relied upon for much.

 

Are people actually still preferring Hutch over Chavez at this point? Hutch basically played his way off the team by the end of the year. I wouldn't hold your breath for him to figure it out. Maybe he finally breaks out, maybe he doesn't. If anything this is hopefully a bit of a motivator for him since he could very well be competing for a spot in the rotation if the Jays make more moves.

 

4.7M is not bad for a #5 guy. Happ was making 6.7M. Reliable #4/5 can be tough to come by. Teams often fall into using a swingman, rushing AAA pitchers, etc in order to finish out their rotation.

 

Considering Chavez will probably pitch 150+ innings, and Hendriks pitched 65, it makes sense to me. I'd rather the hole be in the bullpen than the rotation. The Jays also only have 3 reliable starters (Stroman, Dickey, Estrada) and one question mark (Hutch). They don't have much depth in AAA. If somebody goes down they are really exposed. Maybe they don't land one of the big name starters, but 1-2 more moves even like this would be nice.

 

Also, Hendriks was so terribly misused in low leverage situations, I doubt you'll notice he's gone once the season starts. They can find somebody else for mop-up when the outcome of the game is likely 99% decided one way or the other, or 6th/7th inning duties.

[Laika]

Are people actually still preferring Hutch over Chavez at this point? Hutch basically played his way off the team by the end of the year. I wouldn't hold your breath for him to figure it out. Maybe he finally breaks out, maybe he doesn't. If anything this is hopefully a bit of a motivator for him since he could very well be competing for a spot in the rotation if the Jays make more moves.

 

4.7M is not bad for a #5 guy. Happ was making 6.7M. Reliable #4/5 can be tough to come by. Teams often fall into using a swingman, rushing AAA pitchers, etc in order to finish out their rotation.

 

Considering Chavez will probably pitch 150+ innings, and Hendriks pitched 65, it makes sense to me. I'd rather the hole be in the bullpen than the rotation. The Jays also only have 3 reliable starters (Stroman, Dickey, Estrada) and one question mark (Hutch). They don't have much depth in AAA. If somebody goes down they are really exposed. Maybe they don't land one of the big name starters, but 1-2 more moves even like this would be nice.

 

Also, Hendriks was so terribly misused in low leverage situations, I doubt you'll notice he's gone once the season starts. They can find somebody else for mop-up when the outcome of the game is likely 99% decided one way or the other, or 6th/7th inning duties.

 

hi welcome who are you i like you please stay

[BigRed]

hi welcome who are you i like you please stay

 

 

Name's Ian. I live in London, Ont. I stay.

[Frag]

Personally I think Sanchez and Osuna should just be left in the pen, for good. Sanchez for talent reasons and Osuna for injury risk reasons.

 

I hope you only mean this season regarding Osuna.

[burlingtonbandit]

Name 5 that you could get for less than 10 million.

 

JA Happ, Ian Kennedy, Bartolo Colon, hell even Bud Norris. I just feel like you gave up a great reliever with 4 years of control for a low end SP that makes the team better but not that much better.

 

Is the difference between Chavez and Drew hutchison for 1 year > the difference between Liam Hendriks and Bo Schultz +4 Million towards a better SP? Not in my mind.

[BTS]

JA Happ, Ian Kennedy, Bartolo Colon, hell even Bud Norris. I just feel like you gave up a great reliever with 4 years of control for a low end SP that makes the team better but not that much better.

 

Is the difference between Chavez and Drew hutchison for 1 year > the difference between Liam Hendriks and Bo Schultz +4 Million towards a better SP? Not in my mind.

 

No chance Kennedy signs for less than 10, and probably not Happ or Colon. Bud Norris sucks.

[burlingtonbandit]

No chance Kennedy signs for less than 10, and probably not Happ or Colon. Bud Norris sucks.

 

10-14 Million AAV on a multiyear deal. Would you rather have Happ at 3/40 + Hendriks or Chavez at 4.7?

[Laika]

I hope you only mean this season regarding Osuna.

 

I'm not going to pretend that I know enough about pitching mechanics to have strong opinions about something like this, but I think his mechanics aren't conducive to being a starting pitcher. He's already had the TJS once and I think Toronto probably agrees with me or else they wouldn't have called him up this season and stuck him in the pen. Might be wrong though.

[BigRed]

JA Happ, Ian Kennedy, Bartolo Colon, hell even Bud Norris. I just feel like you gave up a great reliever with 4 years of control for a low end SP that makes the team better but not that much better.

 

Is the difference between Chavez and Drew hutchison for 1 year > the difference between Liam Hendriks and Bo Schultz +4 Million towards a better SP? Not in my mind.

 

The only thing I don't like about the trade is the 1yr vs. 4yr control, but honestly, I'm confident the Jays can find a decent reliever to slot into Liam's role over the next year (maybe even by opening day), weather thru development, trade, free agency, rule 5, whatever.

 

Relievers come and go probably more than any other players, and because Hendriks was often found in low leverage situations the impact of losing him will probably be somewhat minimized. It seemed no matter how well he did (or does in the future), Gibbons was never going to have him above Osuna / Cecil / Sanchez and even possibly Lowe / Hawkins type guys. Stats wise he was their top reliever in most regards, but he was probably #4 on Gibby's depth chart. If you're not going to use him, you might as well trade him for something the manager will need to use.

 

I really liked Liam and hated that Gibbons never relied on him, so I hope he gets a chance in Oakland, even though they are terrible.