FanGraphs contract crowdsourcing is done

[Cyborg]

Iwakuma/Lee and Hill look appealing. I have a question, since there's no type B free-agent anymore, does any FA we sign take our 1st round pick in 2016, whether it's Price or Rich Hill?

Only Free Agents who turned down a qualifying offer from another team. Neither Price or Hill will cost us a pick.

[Dr. Dinger]

Only Free Agents who turned down a qualifying offer from another team. Neither Price or Hill will cost us a pick.

 

Unfortunately, Price won't cost anybody a pick.

[THANOS]

Only Free Agents who turned down a qualifying offer from another team. Neither Price or Hill will cost us a pick.

 

Do we have a list of pitchers likely to not be given a QO? If we sign 2 pitchers, we should poach from said list to avoid losing our pick and obtain an additional by giving Estrada a QO.

 

EDIT: I know Price, Queto and Kazmir won't cost a pick, and of that group, Kaz is the most intriguing.

[Laika]

Unfortunately, Price won't cost anybody a pick.

 

Compensation picks just need to go away entirely

[Dr. Dinger]

Compensation picks just need to go away entirely

 

I don't agree with this. The intention is to help small market teams losing marquee free agents, which is a philosophy I can get behind. Rather, I think all FAs who get QOs should get a comp pick for their team, regardless of whether or not they were traded midseason. You're not going to trade for a guy midseason, then offer him a $15M QO just to scam a comp pick, so I don't see why that rule was instituted. It was a totally different ballgame when it was Type B guys getting traded midseason, but with QOs being so high, the loophole is closed.

[TheHurl]

Compensation picks just need to go away entirely

 

but the Marlins...won't somebody please think of the Marlins.

[Laika]

I don't agree with this. The intention is to help small market teams losing marquee free agents, which is a philosophy I can get behind. Rather, I think all FAs who get QOs should get a comp pick for their team, regardless of whether or not they were traded midseason. You're not going to trade for a guy midseason, then offer him a $15M QO just to scam a comp pick, so I don't see why that rule was instituted. It was a totally different ballgame when it was Type B guys getting traded midseason, but with QOs being so high, the loophole is closed.

 

You would need an entirely new system then if your goal is to help small market teams. The system as it currently is constructed probably gives more comp picks to teams with higher payrolls, since they have an increased ability to acquire QO worthy players in the first place. It's also drastically unfair to good but non-elite free agents. It's a contrived and ineffective system, at best.

[TheHurl]

You would need an entirely new system then if your goal is to help small market teams. The system as it currently is constructed probably gives more comp picks to teams with higher payrolls, since they have an increased ability to acquire QO worthy players in the first place. It's also drastically unfair to good but non-elite free agents. It's a contrived and ineffective system, at best.

 

Last year's Comp pick teams. Rockies, Braves, Jays, Yankees, Pirates, Royals, Tigers, Dodgers and O's.

 

– The Rockies let OF Michael Cuddyer’s leave in Free Agency — signed with the Mets

– The Braves let SP Ervin Santana leave in Free Agency — signed with the Twins and has since been suspended 80 games for PED use

– The Blue Jays let OF Melky Cabrera leave in Free Agency — signed with the White Sox

– The Yankees let RP David Robertson leave in Free Agency — signed with the White Sox

– The Pirates let C Russell Martin leave in Free Agency — signed with the Blue Jays

– The Royals let James Shields leave in Free Agency — signed with the Padres

– The Tigers let Max Scherzer leave in Free Agency — signed with the Nationals

– The Dodgers let Hanley Ramirez leave in Free Agency — signed with the Red Sox

– The Orioles let Nelson Cruz leave in Free Agency — signed with the Mariners

[Laika]

Last year's Comp pick teams. Rockies, Braves, Jays, Yankees, Pirates, Royals, Tigers, Dodgers and O's.

 

– The Rockies let OF Michael Cuddyer’s leave in Free Agency — signed with the Mets

– The Braves let SP Ervin Santana leave in Free Agency — signed with the Twins and has since been suspended 80 games for PED use

– The Blue Jays let OF Melky Cabrera leave in Free Agency — signed with the White Sox

– The Yankees let RP David Robertson leave in Free Agency — signed with the White Sox

– The Pirates let C Russell Martin leave in Free Agency — signed with the Blue Jays

– The Royals let James Shields leave in Free Agency — signed with the Padres

– The Tigers let Max Scherzer leave in Free Agency — signed with the Nationals

– The Dodgers let Hanley Ramirez leave in Free Agency — signed with the Red Sox

– The Orioles let Nelson Cruz leave in Free Agency — signed with the Mariners

 

Arbitrary binning process says:

 

4 teams that got picks are smaller market

5 teams that got picks are bigger market (considering Detroit and Baltimore to be bigger)

 

5 teams that gave up picks are bigger market

3 teams that gave up picks are small/mid market (M's, Padres, Twins).

[Laika]

Since MLB also has a separate process that gives out "competitive balance picks" based on market size, the true purpose of the free agent compensation pick regime must be to simply sandbag the market for top talent and save owners money.

 

I suppose it also is in the interest of long term parity, since teams that land big ticket free agent talent will lose a high draft pick in the process. This slightly increases that chances that said team will fail at remaining competitive "long term".

[Terminator]

Bring me Kuma (3/42), Lackey (2/30), Jaso (2/12), Lowe (2/8) and Davis (1/6).

[Laika]

Bring me Kuma (3/42), Lackey (2/30), Jaso (2/12), Lowe (2/8) and Davis (1/6).

 

14+15+6+4+6 = $45M

 

If the payroll is capped at $140M then they probably only have ~32M to spend.

[z3r0s]

don't need Jaso in that equation for sure.

[Terminator]

14+15+6+4+6 = $45M

 

If the payroll is capped at $140M then they probably only have ~32M to spend.

 

What if you backload the deals to save 5 to 7 million and non-tender/trade Smoak and Revere?

 

I know it's pushing it but maybe hold off on Jaso (who I'm not even sure can play 1B) or get a little creative with the active roster and it could be done?

[Laika]

What if you backload the deals to save 5 to 7 million and non-tender/trade Smoak and Revere?

 

I know it's pushing it but maybe hold off on Jaso (who I'm not even sure can play 1B) or get a little creative with the active roster and it could be done?

 

I am all for offloading Revere for whatever they can get to save money, so that would be a big help. I don't even care if it's one interesting pitching prospect who is three years away, to be honest. Pompey is a better in-house option than Revere and Saunders very well might be too, so Ben needs to be gone.

 

Backloading the Iwakuma deal could work too. 10/16/16 + getting rid of Revere would get them basically to budget for 2016.

 

I guess Smoak at say $2M hypothetically has a small amount of trade value, but they'd need to find a very specific trade partner. A team that needs a part time 1B and doesn't have much space in the budget could be willing to give up something small.

[Laika]

Dave Cameron's worthless predictions for Toronto are:

 

Estrada at 3/33

Kennedy at 3/42

Navarro at 2/10

 

I could see that happening I guess. Pretty lame though.

 

I wonder if anybody interested in Estrada will also want Navarro to team them up again.

[THANOS]

Dave Cameron's worthless predictions for Toronto are:

 

Estrada at 3/33

Kennedy at 3/42

Navarro at 2/10

 

I could see that happening I guess. Pretty lame though.

 

I wonder if anybody interested in Estrada will also want Navarro to team them up again.

 

Teaming them up is probably for the best. That said, it would mean Estrada would cost $16 in 2016 and 2017 for him to be effective (if you believe the tandem is legit that is).

[burlingtonbandit]

I am all for offloading Revere for whatever they can get to save money, so that would be a big help. I don't even care if it's one interesting pitching prospect who is three years away, to be honest. Pompey is a better in-house option than Revere and Saunders very well might be too, so Ben needs to be gone.

 

Backloading the Iwakuma deal could work too. 10/16/16 + getting rid of Revere would get them basically to budget for 2016.

 

I guess Smoak at say $2M hypothetically has a small amount of trade value, but they'd need to find a very specific trade partner. A team that needs a part time 1B and doesn't have much space in the budget could be willing to give up something small.

 

Shapiro has talked about how payroll will be impacted where the Blue Jays are on the win curve. Given how this team is set up for next year you have to think he will be able to convince Rogers if they need extra salary room.

 

Rogers almost has to have payroll "higher" than last year just for PR. If the Blue Jays budget is lower than last year it won't just be fans hating on Rogers as a bunch of media will be all over it because of the record revenues the club brought in. I think it would be smart to have it at $145 for that reason. Now, if you were able to fill all of the holes with a payroll of $140 I don't think its an issue since you aren't going to spend 5 million just for shits and giggles. But if the Jays are able to get better with that 5 Million you do it.

[burlingtonbandit]

Dave Cameron's worthless predictions for Toronto are:

 

Estrada at 3/33

Kennedy at 3/42

Navarro at 2/10

 

I could see that happening I guess. Pretty lame though.

 

I wonder if anybody interested in Estrada will also want Navarro to team them up again.

 

Those seem like awful predictions. Honestly, see them signing any of those 3 at those prices. If JA Happ is only going to cost "24 Million" why the hell would you give Kennedy 42?

[Terminator]

Those seem like awful predictions. Honestly, see them signing any of those 3 at those prices. If JA Happ is only going to cost "24 Million" why the hell would you give Kennedy 42?

 

Cameron explains that he thinks a team will pay extra for Kennedy's swing and miss stuff.

[Laika]

Those seem like awful predictions. Honestly, see them signing any of those 3 at those prices. If JA Happ is only going to cost "24 Million" why the hell would you give Kennedy 42?

 

Ian Kennedy is good

[Laika]

Shapiro has talked about how payroll will be impacted where the Blue Jays are on the win curve. Given how this team is set up for next year you have to think he will be able to convince Rogers if they need extra salary room.

 

Not a chance Sha-pir-row will ask for more money in year 1 of his tenure

[burlingtonbandit]

Ian Kennedy is good

 

He's not bad but I don't think he's worth 42 million. Especially if he has the QO attached. Certainly not worth 18 million more than Happ who has proven he can pitch in the AL East while Kennedy's been in the NL his entire career.

[Laika]

He's not bad but I don't think he's worth 42 million. Especially if he has the QO attached. Certainly not worth 18 million more than Happ who has proven he can pitch in the AL East while Kennedy's been in the NL his entire career.

 

You have a point on the QO, but for the record 60% the Fangraphs crowd didn't think he'd get offered one from the Padres.

 

And the whole Happ vs Kennedy thing is kind of artificial. I could see Happ getting 3/42 and Kennedy getting 3/33, it will all just depend on when they sign and who wants their services and how good their agents are.

 

Personally, I think Kennedy is probably worth roughly 36 million dollars on a three year deal. That's with no QO attached.

 

And as we know, it will probably take a premium to get any decent free agent arm to sign in Toronto, Canada, in the AL East, blah blah blah.

[BTS]

He's not bad but I don't think he's worth 42 million. Especially if he has the QO attached. Certainly not worth 18 million more than Happ who has proven he can pitch in the AL East while Kennedy's been in the NL his entire career.

 

Kennedy is better than Happ, a few years younger, and basically has a rubber arm. I'm a lot more comfortable saying Kennedy will start 100 games over the next three years than I am saying Happ will.

[jaysblue]

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/11/04/padres-leaning-toward-making-qualifying-offer-to-ian-kennedy/

[burlingtonbandit]

You have a point on the QO, but for the record 60% the Fangraphs crowd didn't think he'd get offered one from the Padres.

 

And the whole Happ vs Kennedy thing is kind of artificial. I could see Happ getting 3/42 and Kennedy getting 3/33, it will all just depend on when they sign and who wants their services and how good their agents are.

 

Personally, I think Kennedy is probably worth roughly 36 million dollars on a three year deal. That's with no QO attached.

 

And as we know, it will probably take a premium to get any decent free agent arm to sign in Toronto, Canada, in the AL East, blah blah blah.

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/nov/04/padres-kennedy-likely-qualifying-offer/

 

Sounds like they will offer him one. If I was him I'd accept it. SD great pitcher park where he kind of got unlucky last year, and he has been healthy so his injury risk is very small for a pitcher.

[jaysblue]

Kennedy is better than Happ, a few years younger, and basically has a rubber arm. I'm a lot more comfortable saying Kennedy will start 100 games over the next three years than I am saying Happ will.

 

I prefer Ian Kennedy as well over Happ. Younger and durable arm that you know should give you more innings. He'd fit in nicely as a No. 3 starter in the Jays rotation.

[jaysblue]

He's not bad but I don't think he's worth 42 million. Especially if he has the QO attached. Certainly not worth 18 million more than Happ who has proven he can pitch in the AL East while Kennedy's been in the NL his entire career.

 

Yeah not comfortable if he has a QO attached. Unless the Jays sign a higher profiled free agent as well, not worth giving up a comp pick to sign Kennedy.

[THANOS]

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/11/04/padres-leaning-toward-making-qualifying-offer-to-ian-kennedy/

 

f*** that, don't want to lose a pick over him. If we lose it over Heyward, then maybe I'd reconsider signing Kennedy.