Free Agent Pitching

[L54]

I don't know, man. I think if you move Osuna to the rotation you're asking for problems.

 

The Osuna situation is such a mess. Even if he successfully transitions to starting what happens if the Jays make the playoffs? He'll surely be approaching whatever limit they impose on him. Put him in the pen?

 

If they put him in the pen this year I think that signals that they're married to it. Then you're basically hoping you can get 6 years of above average BP production out of him before he becomes a FA. If you don't, it's a waste of a a good SP prospect.

 

I know we say this all the time- but here is a guy who's value may never be higher. If they don't think he can start maybe he's best used in a trade.

[Dr Negative]

Yeah, for some reason I still have hopes for Hutchison as well, or maybe it is just the fear that the Cubs will pick him up and turn him into the next Jake Arrieta.

[Terminator]

The Osuna situation is such a mess. Even if he successfully transitions to starting what happens if the Jays make the playoffs? He'll surely be approaching whatever limit they impose on him. Put him in the pen?

 

If they put him in the pen this year I think that signals that they're married to it. Then you're basically hoping you can get 6 years of above average BP production out of him before he becomes a FA. If you don't, it's a waste of a a good SP prospect.

 

I know we say this all the time- but here is a guy who's value may never be higher. If they don't think he can start maybe he's best used in a trade.

 

You could start him until he hits 130 innings and then put him in the pen the rest of the way. The problem with that is that our SP depth is s***. It's not like we have someone who we can call up midseason to take his spot.

[Brownie19]

Sarmardzija seems like a good signing, hopefully he won't accept a QO from the White Sox. 200+ innings with a 4.1~ FIP.

 

I worry he's going to opt in and attempt to rebuild his value and cash in next year. Coming into this season, he was lining himself up for a big 6 year $120M contract - then he s*** the bed.

 

I'd love to see the Jays give him a 2 year $30M contract with a club option or something...although I have no idea what the market for him will be...I kind of think it will be in the 4 year $50M range.....still don't hate that though.

[L54]

You could start him until he hits 130 innings and then put him in the pen the rest of the way. The problem with that is that our SP depth is s***. It's not like we have someone who we can call up midseason to take his spot.

 

That's exactly the problem. So they give him 130 innings and then what?

 

Having him start the season as the long man seems like the most logical I guess, be the 6th guy on the depth chart. I can't really envision that happening either since Gibby is gonna want his savezzz in the back end of the BP.

[fatcowxlive]

You're right - they don't. Over the past 3 years his WAR has dropped, FIP & ERA have rose. I get he's been productive, but he's 43 and resembles a butterball. Let's aim higher.

 

it's a one year deal, I really doubt he's going to s*** the bed next year.

 

His numbers aren't "great". If he signed a 1 year 5 million deal I'm all for it but he's going to get more than that and I think there are much better options. He's going to be 43 years old and that body is a ticking time bomb.

 

Why would he only get 5 million? Who will be as productive next season for $10M? I'm treating him as a stop gap until we can bridge over to 2017. He fits that roll completely well.

 

This is all with saying IF he fetches a good piece through trade. If an NL team see him valuable enough to give us a solid piece for him (or a package of him and someone like Revere, etc) I say we pull the trigger and get Colon through free agency. Overall I think we'll benefit more this route

[Terminator]

That's exactly the problem. So they give him 130 innings and then what?

 

Having him start the season as the long man seems like the most logical I guess, be the 6th guy on the depth chart. I can't really envision that happening either since Gibby is gonna want his savezzz in the back end of the BP.

 

But on the other hand we are going to need 7 or 8 starters next year and right now we have 3? Can we afford NOT to put him in the rotation? It's kind of a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario right now.

 

Maybe we could bring in enough starters to where Osuna is the 5th starter and Hutchison is in AAA to start the year?

[Brownie19]

The Osuna situation is such a mess. Even if he successfully transitions to starting what happens if the Jays make the playoffs? He'll surely be approaching whatever limit they impose on him. Put him in the pen?

 

If they put him in the pen this year I think that signals that they're married to it. Then you're basically hoping you can get 6 years of above average BP production out of him before he becomes a FA. If you don't, it's a waste of a a good SP prospect.

 

I know we say this all the time- but here is a guy who's value may never be higher. If they don't think he can start maybe he's best used in a trade.

 

Agreed - a very difficult situation. I guess ideally you start him in AA/AAA, limit his innings/usage early, keep his innings down and then have him ready to come up and help in the 2nd half and into the playoffs. Just not sure our pitching will be good enough to leave him in the minors for 1/2 the season.

[Slugger]

The Osuna situation is such a mess. Even if he successfully transitions to starting what happens if the Jays make the playoffs? He'll surely be approaching whatever limit they impose on him. Put him in the pen?

 

If they put him in the pen this year I think that signals that they're married to it. Then you're basically hoping you can get 6 years of above average BP production out of him before he becomes a FA. If you don't, it's a waste of a a good SP prospect.

 

I know we say this all the time- but here is a guy who's value may never be higher. If they don't think he can start maybe he's best used in a trade.

 

I get your concern, but we both know how often pitching prospects work out. If you're saying you can get 6 years of quality high leverage bullpen work from him, that's a win in my books.

 

That's just how I see it. I'm only the GM of the Vancouver Canadians. (that's a lie, I'm not.)

[BigCecil]

Agreed - a very difficult situation. I guess ideally you start him in AA/AAA, limit his innings/usage early, keep his innings down and then have him ready to come up and help in the 2nd half and into the playoffs. Just not sure our pitching will be good enough to leave him in the minors for 1/2 the season.

 

Doesn't using Osuna in the minors for the 1st half completely derail the argument he is worth more to us as a SP than out of the pen, given we get more innings from him?

[L54]

But on the other hand we are going to need 7 or 8 starters next year and right now we have 3? Can we afford NOT to put him in the rotation? It's kind of a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario right now.

 

Ya they've kind of had their hand forced with this issue. I'm really quite interested to see how this regime handles him.

[Terminator]

I get your concern, but we both know how often pitching prospects work out. If you're saying you can get 6 years of quality high leverage bullpen work from him, that's a win in my books.

 

That's just how I see it. I'm only the GM of the Vancouver Canadians. (that's a lie, I'm not.)

 

Yeah I hear you on that, it would be tempting to just take the WAR and a half he gives you out of the bullpen for the next 5 years.

[L54]

I get your concern, but we both know how often pitching prospects work out. If you're saying you can get 6 years of quality high leverage bullpen work from him, that's a win in my books.

 

That's just how I see it. I'm only the GM of the Vancouver Canadians. (that's a lie, I'm not.)

 

For sure you'd take that from him. I guess if that happens, I'd always have the "what if" taste in my mouth wondering what he could've done as a starter.

[Slugger]

Yeah I hear you on that, it would be tempting to just take the WAR and a half he gives you out of the bullpen for the next 5 years.

 

All of a sudden our bullpen is a barren wasteland with Sanchez and Osuna taken out of it.

[L54]

Agreed - a very difficult situation. I guess ideally you start him in AA/AAA, limit his innings/usage early, keep his innings down and then have him ready to come up and help in the 2nd half and into the playoffs. Just not sure our pitching will be good enough to leave him in the minors for 1/2 the season.

 

Surely I'll catch heat for this but I think the best thing for both the Jays and Osuna is for him to be the long man in 2016. Make 15 or so inevitable starts out of the pen and come back in 2017 with an opportunity to start.

[dineke]

All of a sudden our bullpen is a barren wasteland with Sanchez and Osuna taken out of it.

 

And then we have a barren wasteland for a starting rotation, much easier to find quality relievers off the scrapheap. I'd be disappointed if Osuna wasn't given a chance in the rotation at some point.

[L54]

All of a sudden our bullpen is a barren wasteland with Sanchez and Osuna taken out of it.

 

I'll puke if Sanchez makes a start next year.

[BigCecil]

I'll puke if Sanchez makes a start next year.

 

You will puke for sure. This is going to happen. Organizational love affair will continue.

[Slugger]

And then we have a barren wasteland for a starting rotation, much easier to find quality relievers off the scrapheap. I'd be disappointed if Osuna wasn't given a chance in the rotation at some point.

 

The fact that the free agent class is so deep this year changes my view a bit.

 

I'll puke if Sanchez makes a start next year.

 

You gotta give him a chance. He's 23 for f***.

[Orgfiller]

The fact that the free agent class is so deep this year changes my view a bit.

 

 

 

You gotta give him a chance. He's 23 for f***.

 

We've given him plenty of chances. He hasn't been able to start at a competent level even in the minor leagues, and was awful as a starter in the MLB. It's clear that for whatever reason he's more comfortable as a reliever, why risk potentially screwing that up?

[Slugger]

We've given him plenty of chances. He hasn't been able to start at a competent level even in the minor leagues, and was awful as a starter in the MLB. It's clear that for whatever reason he's more comfortable as a reliever, why risk potentially screwing that up?

 

I mean, 11 starts at the major league level isn't enough to write him off just yet.

[Brownie19]

Doesn't using Osuna in the minors for the 1st half completely derail the argument he is worth more to us as a SP than out of the pen, given we get more innings from him?

 

For 2016 it derails it. Theoretically, it doesn't derail it afterwards (once his innings are ramped up).

[Brownie19]

All of a sudden our bullpen is a barren wasteland with Sanchez and Osuna taken out of it.

 

That's why I say one or the other. I think Sanchez is remarkably more valuable as a reliever (although he wants to start) and Osuna is way more valuable as a starter (although he said he likes the bullpen). That said - we know Sanchez will be stretched out.

[Spanky99]

How do you evaluate them fairly in this case? If RA-9 favours Dickey more and fWAR is used to evaluate essentially everyone else what's the best way to compare? Dickeys RA-9 vs. Colon's fWAR?

 

The knuckleball and his defense man. He's always going to be a FIP/xFIP buster, same goes for Buerhle, just look at career ERA, to their FIP/XFIP.

[BigCecil]

For 2016 it derails it. Theoretically, it doesn't derail it afterwards (once his innings are ramped up).

 

I get that but at this point our pitching in 2016 is THIN....

[Spanky99]

Honestly - you're suggesting we target a 43 year old, 320 lbs pitcher? Who does that? Please, let's aim higher.

 

He's not making any sense, whatsoever.

[Spanky99]

The Osuna situation is such a mess. Even if he successfully transitions to starting what happens if the Jays make the playoffs? He'll surely be approaching whatever limit they impose on him. Put him in the pen?

 

If they put him in the pen this year I think that signals that they're married to it. Then you're basically hoping you can get 6 years of above average BP production out of him before he becomes a FA. If you don't, it's a waste of a a good SP prospect.

 

I know we say this all the time- but here is a guy who's value may never be higher. If they don't think he can start maybe he's best used in a trade.

 

AA has pretty much hinted at Osuna being our closer for another year, because he's young and it'll be in a contending year, before they make the transition to SP, I don't agree with it, but I can see why he's leaning that way.

[Spanky99]

I worry he's going to opt in and attempt to rebuild his value and cash in next year. Coming into this season, he was lining himself up for a big 6 year $120M contract - then he s*** the bed.

 

I'd love to see the Jays give him a 2 year $30M contract with a club option or something...although I have no idea what the market for him will be...I kind of think it will be in the 4 year $50M range.....still don't hate that though.

 

NVM...I mis-read your post, I agree with the latter.

[BigCecil]

Honestly - you're suggesting we target a 43 year old, 320 lbs pitcher? Who does that? Please, let's aim higher.

 

He's not making any sense, whatsoever.

 

Had a nitemare last night with Navvy back and Colon pitching to him as his personal catcher. They would be the poster child tandem for overweight ballplayers.

[Spanky99]

Why would he only get 5 million? Who will be as productive next season for $10M? I'm treating him as a stop gap until we can bridge over to 2017. He fits that roll completely well.

 

This is all with saying IF he fetches a good piece through trade. If an NL team see him valuable enough to give us a solid piece for him (or a package of him and someone like Revere, etc) I say we pull the trigger and get Colon through free agency. Overall I think we'll benefit more this route

 

This argument/point is redundant mate, Dickey=Colon with the defense and Dickey effect, give it up man.