Offseason Roster Thread

[L54]

Pillar will not be the centerpiece of a Carrasco deal.

[JaysRap]

Delabar and Thole for sure. (they may resign Thole though) Smoak and Saunders will be much more interesting, and possibly even Revere.

 

They'll re-sign Revere with the idea of flipping him in the trade (or as insurance if they make a trade). My prediction.

[Sorrow]

I still have major concerns with Colabello, terrible defensive numbers at first in a small sample (240 innings this year -5 DRS) and that .411 BABIP and 6.1% BB and 26.1% K just make me think he's a DFA candidate come May.

 

I don't know if I'd want to pay Smoak 1.5M+ to ride the pine for a month when he has no versatility.

 

Thole and Delabar should both be non-tendered and I don't know if I non-tender Saunders based on the upside he has if healthy and after missing a full season good chance you're not looking at a big raise in arb.

[BTS]

I still have major concerns with Colabello, terrible defensive numbers at first in a small sample (240 innings this year -5 DRS) and that .411 BABIP and 6.1% BB and 26.1% K just make me think he's a DFA candidate come May.

 

I don't know if I'd want to pay Smoak 1.5M+ to ride the pine for a month when he has no versatility.

 

Thole and Delabar should both be non-tendered and I don't know if I non-tender Saunders based on the upside he has if healthy and after missing a full season good chance you're not looking at a big raise in arb.

 

Colabello is potentially useful as a 100-110 wRC+ 1B/DH you can use to pinch hit and send to the minors as you please. I have my doubts that he'll last the whole season in the majors.

[Laika]

I still have major concerns with Colabello, terrible defensive numbers at first in a small sample (240 innings this year -5 DRS) and that .411 BABIP and 6.1% BB and 26.1% K just make me think he's a DFA candidate come May.

 

I don't know if I'd want to pay Smoak 1.5M+ to ride the pine for a month when he has no versatility.

 

Thole and Delabar should both be non-tendered and I don't know if I non-tender Saunders based on the upside he has if healthy and after missing a full season good chance you're not looking at a big raise in arb.

 

Colabello and Smoak are both pretty bad 1B/DH options. They can't carry both of them again. Team needs a bit more positional versatility from at least one of those roster spots (and maybe both). Colabello projects a bit better and obviously was better last year, plus he's league min, so I guess he sticks around.

 

It's kind of remarkable that Smoak might not even be a league average hitter.

 

I'd probably tender Saunders. He's still worth a $3M gamble I think.

[ElNik2013]

Saundabello?

[Laika]

Does RA Dickey's other Dickey effect cancel out the famous Dickey effect?

 

Earlier tonight I saw this article from October: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-culmination-of-the-r-a-dickey-experiment/

 

Apparently Martin was -16 Blocking Runs below average, thanks to Dickey. That's about 1.5 wins down the drain.

 

What did CC estimate Dickey's "Dickey Effect" on other pitchers was worth initially? +1.5 WAR.

 

Hmmm.

 

The run value on blocking seems way too high though. If you look at passed balls, Martin averages about 4/5 and this year he had 19. Wild pitches were close to his career norm. There's no way that 15 extra passed balls would = 15 extra runs.

[Spanky__99]

Hence Thole, errrr Kratz.

[KingKat]

Does RA Dickey's other Dickey effect cancel out the famous Dickey effect?

 

Earlier tonight I saw this article from October: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-culmination-of-the-r-a-dickey-experiment/

 

Apparently Martin was -16 Blocking Runs below average, thanks to Dickey. That's about 1.5 wins down the drain.

 

What did CC estimate Dickey's "Dickey Effect" on other pitchers was worth initially? +1.5 WAR.

 

Hmmm.

 

The run value on blocking seems way too high though. If you look at passed balls, Martin averages about 4/5 and this year he had 19. Wild pitches were close to his career norm. There's no way that 15 extra passed balls would = 15 extra runs.

 

Even if it's no that high, combine it and with what Kylle Matte was suggesting it might be doing to his offense and Martin catching Dickey looks like a noble experiment that ultimately may have been a noble failure. Let someone else do it. Thole's offense in AAA was putrid last year even though he wasn't catching Dickey there but he still should be brought back at least as a fallback option.

[Brownie19]

Pillar will not be the centerpiece of a Carrasco deal.

 

um...he said Revere would be the centerpiece (obviously). It made milk come out my nose this morning...

[L54]

um...he said Revere would be the centerpiece (obviously). It made milk come out my nose this morning...

 

I'm dumn and you are correct! I browse a Jays group on Facebook and the "smart" people there think Pillar and Hutch+ will land Carrasco. I guess I'm just getting used to seeing dumb proposals.

[Laika]

Even if it's no that high, combine it and with what Kylle Matte was suggesting it might be doing to his offense and Martin catching Dickey looks like a noble experiment that ultimately may have been a noble failure. Let someone else do it. Thole's offense in AAA was putrid last year even though he wasn't catching Dickey there but he still should be brought back at least as a fallback option.

 

- All he did was look at offense in a 21 game sample size. It doesn't really mean anything.

- Even if his conclusion was correct, you would assume it would affect any catcher so you might as well let Martin catch and then you at least benefit from his arm.

- The only real consideration for having Martin not catch Dickey is the "toll on his body", which is common sense, but even then I don't support sitting Martin for 1/5 of the team's games. He should still catch some Dickey starts + DH some of the ones he doesn't.

[Brownie19]

- All he did was look at offense in a 21 game sample size. It doesn't really mean anything.

- Even if his conclusion was correct, you would assume it would affect any catcher so you might as well let Martin catch and then you at least benefit from his arm.

- The only real consideration for having Martin not catch Dickey is the "toll on his body", which is common sense, but even then I don't support sitting Martin for 1/5 of the team's games. He should still catch some Dickey starts + DH some of the ones he doesn't.

 

You think Martin should be catching more than 128 games a year (excluding starts as a DH)?

 

I've always though Martin's framing skills better off catching our 4 traditional starters too...

 

 

 

The only scenario I see where it makes sense to have Martin catching Dickey is if our backup catcher is a lefty who can actually hit well (Thole does not qualify) - that way you can schedule Martin's off days around L/R matchups. It would suck to see Thole starting vs. a crappy lefty when you know Martin would likely have a good day at the plate.

[Laika]

You think Martin should be catching more than 128 games a year (excluding starts as a DH)?

 

I've always though Martin's framing skills better off catching our 4 traditional starters too...

 

The only scenario I see where it makes sense to have Martin catching Dickey is if our backup catcher is a lefty who can actually hit well (Thole does not qualify) - that way you can schedule Martin's off days around L/R matchups. It would suck to see Thole starting vs. a crappy lefty when you know Martin would likely have a good day at the plate.

 

It would end up being a lot less than 128 because he'll inevitably need other days off for day game after night game, nagging injury reasons, etc.

[Brownie19]

It would end up being a lot less than 128 because he'll inevitably need other days off for day game after night game, nagging injury reasons, etc.

 

Well we can't plan on the injuries - but good point about the day after night games...how often in a season do those happen?

 

He caught 114 last year and 107 in 2014...I can't see him catching many more moving forward. 110 starts would leave 18 night/day games that he could sit out (or DH in).

[Cyborg]

Does RA Dickey's other Dickey effect cancel out the famous Dickey effect?

 

Earlier tonight I saw this article from October: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-culmination-of-the-r-a-dickey-experiment/

 

Apparently Martin was -16 Blocking Runs below average, thanks to Dickey. That's about 1.5 wins down the drain.

 

What did CC estimate Dickey's "Dickey Effect" on other pitchers was worth initially? +1.5 WAR.

 

Hmmm.

 

The run value on blocking seems way too high though. If you look at passed balls, Martin averages about 4/5 and this year he had 19. Wild pitches were close to his career norm. There's no way that 15 extra passed balls would = 15 extra runs.

 

This is in Dickey's RA9 though.

[Angrioter]

Jerry Crasnick ‏

The #BlueJays are looking to add an impact power bullpen arm for "dollar store prices,'' said one player agent.

[Laika]

Jerry Crasnick ‏

The #BlueJays are looking to add an impact power bullpen arm for "dollar store prices,'' said one player agent.

 

Good!

[Laika]

This is in Dickey's RA9 though.

 

yes, true

[Angrioter]

Non tendered players are free agents if not given a offer, Right? Free to sign anywhere?

 

I see Pittsburgh is questioning to tender or non tender Pedro Alverez for 8.1 mil today!

 

Could the Jays offer them SMOAK and Cola For Aleverz then pick up and tender him 8.1 if traded today?

 

Left Hand power Bat hmmmmmm

 

Portabello 500K > El toro 8.1M

[HERPDERP]

Good!

 

Funny, we had a righty who fit the bill just a few weeks ago...

[Laika]

Funny, we had a righty who fit the bill just a few weeks ago...

 

And Hutch was also the #3 starter a few weeks ago.

 

Suck eggs, you cynical dirt squirrel!

[Spanky__99]

Funny, we had a righty who fit the bill just a few weeks ago...

 

Funny, we now have a starter.

[Cyborg]

Funny, we had a righty who fit the bill just a few weeks ago...

Well if we can get one back for a dollar store price (obviously less than a MLB calibre starter), why complain?

[Grant77]

Funny, we had a righty who fit the bill just a few weeks ago...

 

Now we can have a good starter on a cheap contract AND a good reliever on a cheap contract, provided we sign the right relievers.

[KingKat]

Now we can have a good starter on a cheap contract AND a good reliever on a cheap contract, provided we sign the right relievers.

 

Makes way more sense than trading Hendriks and then overpaying for a reliever. In fact, at least one poster criticized the Chavez trade based exactly on the assumption that they would overpay for a reliever. The idea is to get someone here that Gibbons will use properly. Throw in the fact that you can't really sign a pitcher like Chavez as a FA for 5M/1 year and you can see how things fit together.

[CHRIS]

The idea is to get someone here that Gibbons will use properly.

 

Such an important element to all of this.

 

That's not to excuse Gibbons bullpen usage, but it's important to acknowledge it.

[KingKat]

Such an important element to all of this.

 

That's not to excuse Gibbons bullpen usage, but it's important to acknowledge it.

 

It's not THAT important. The more important point is that it's easier to find a cheap reliever than a 5 million dollar starter so even though the Hendriks trade is a loss on paper and in the long term, it can easily be a win in the short term with the right bullpen acquisition. This is the offseason of the boring moves that don't really impress on the surface but add up to a roster that makes sense.

[dineke]

lmao i turned on the radio and they're talking about trading EE for Jered Weaver or Matt Moore.

[Grant77]

It's not THAT important. The more important point is that it's easier to find a cheap reliever than a 5 million dollar starter so even though the Hendriks trade is a loss on paper and in the long term, it can easily be a win in the short term with the right bullpen acquisition. This is the offseason of the boring moves that don't really impress on the surface but add up to a roster that makes sense.

 

I think that David Hernandez could be that impact arm we are looking for, but at a reasonable price.