Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[John_Havok]

It would be lovely to have Horwitz up the problem is where he would play. You really don't want him in the OF. But sure he could play in a corner if you really need him to. It might just not be the best defensive decision.

 

Honestly Horwitz could probably provide similar production to Belt right now but he's blocked by Belt for atleast this year.

 

Yeah. If Horwitz does prove that he has developed a power stroke, I have no issues at all with him taking over Belt’s role next season at league minimum. Without that power though, he’s…basically a left handed 2023 version Vlad with even less power. That’s not what anyone wants at 1b/DH. We’re stuck with it for now, but there’s always hope Vlad pulls his head out of ass

[InsideThePark]

Bohrofen and Barry finally promoted to Dunedin. Them splitting DH duties in the FCL was odd. Bohrofen hit a HR in his first at bat. Goodwin got one as well

[metafour]

20. Fernando Perez, RHP, Blue Jays

Team: FCL Blue Jays (Florida Complex)

Age: 19

 

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 7 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR

 

The Scoop: On Monday Perez pitched seven hitless innings to combine with two other pitchers to record a nine-inning no-hitter for the FCL Blue Jays. Perez pitched seven of the nine innings, shutting down the FCL Phillies lineup, which featured 2023 first-round pick Aidan Miller. Perez struck out six, allowing only one player to reach base over his seven frames. Perez is a strike-thrower with a ton of upside. He mixes four-seam and two-seam variations of his fastball, which sits 92-94 mph and touches 96 mph at peak. He also uses a fringe slider and an average changeup. Everything plays up due to his plus control and ability to pound the zone. He’s a potential breakout name to follow in the Blue Jays system. (GP)

[Olerud363]

Yeah. If Horwitz does prove that he has developed a power stroke, I have no issues at all with him taking over BeltÂ’s role next season at league minimum. Without that power though, heÂ’sÂ…basically a left handed 2023 version Vlad with even less power. ThatÂ’s not what anyone wants at 1b/DH. WeÂ’re stuck with it for now, but thereÂ’s always hope Vlad pulls his head out of ass

 

If he hit .300 with 9 homers but doubles and walks and plays good 1b defense that's not a left handed version of 2023 Vlad. That profile can be 4 WAR.

 

The hope is that these guys without big time power will develop into a Marc Grace, or Keith Hernandez, or Sean Casey, or Lyle Overbay or John Olerud type.

 

Not saying they will. Maybe they come up 2 months, hit .238 and we never hear about them again...

 

On a side note it's pretty hilarious but John Olerud in 2003 hitting .269 .372 .390 was way better than 2023 Vlad, 2 WAR

 

John Olerud in 2004 hitting .259 .359 .374 was 0.7 WAR. Still probably better than 2023 Vlad.

 

So hypothetically even if Horwitz hit .265 with 8 homers he could still beat 2023 Vlad if he walked and doubled more and played better defense.

[Spanky__99]

BA's updated top 30 after the draft and trades mid season ranking...

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann

LHP

 

 

2. Orelvis Martinez

SS

 

3. Arjun Nimmala

SS

 

4. Brandon Barriera

LHP

 

5. Addison Barger

SS

 

6. Kendry Rojas

LHP

 

7. Leo Jimenez

SS

 

8. Alan Roden

OF

 

9. Juaron Watts-Brown

RHP

 

10. Davis Schneider

2B

 

11. Yosver Zulueta

RHP

 

12. Josh Kasevich

SS

 

13. Dahian Santos

RHP

 

14. Hayden Juenger

RHP

 

15. Spencer Horwitz

1B

 

16. Chad Dallas

RHP

 

17. Damiano Palmegiani

OF

 

18. Connor Cooke

RHP

 

19. Tucker Toman

SS

 

20. Landen Maroudis

RHP

 

21. Cade Doughty

2B

 

22. Manuel Beltre

SS

 

23. Hagen Danner

RHP

 

24. Gabriel Martinez

OF

 

25. Rainer Nunez

1B

 

26. Devereaux Harrison

RHP

 

27. Mason Fluharty

LHP

 

28. Nolan Perry

RHP

 

29. Jace Bohrofen

OF

 

30. Connor O'Halloran

LHP

[John_Havok]

If he hit .300 with 9 homers but doubles and walks and plays good 1b defense that's not a left handed version of 2023 Vlad. That profile can be 4 WAR.

 

The hope is that these guys without big time power will develop into a Marc Grace, or Keith Hernandez, or Sean Casey, or Lyle Overbay or John Olerud type.

 

Not saying they will. Maybe they come up 2 months, hit .238 and we never hear about them again...

 

On a side note it's pretty hilarious but John Olerud in 2003 hitting .269 .372 .390 was way better than 2023 Vlad, 2 WAR

 

John Olerud in 2004 hitting .259 .359 .374 was 0.7 WAR. Still probably better than 2023 Vlad.

 

So hypothetically even if Horwitz hit .265 with 8 homers he could still beat 2023 Vlad if he walked and doubled more and played better defense.

 

Lots of IFs in there where the assumption is that his skill set will perfectly transfer over and he will maintain all those doubles and walks, when that usually isn’t the case with a player the pitchers don’t fear.

 

He’d be a good stopgap or something …but without the HR ball, but he’s not likely to be a long term solution with his severely limited defensive profile.

 

Also, a 4 war 1b/DH over a full season with only 9 HR is a pipe dream.

[Spanky__99]

BA's updated top 30 after the draft and trades mid season ranking...

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann

LHP

 

 

2. Orelvis Martinez

SS

 

3. Arjun Nimmala

SS

 

4. Brandon Barriera

LHP

 

5. Addison Barger

SS

 

6. Kendry Rojas

LHP

 

7. Leo Jimenez

SS

 

8. Alan Roden

OF

 

9. Juaron Watts-Brown

RHP

 

10. Davis Schneider

2B

 

11. Yosver Zulueta

RHP

 

12. Josh Kasevich

SS

 

13. Dahian Santos

RHP

 

14. Hayden Juenger

RHP

 

15. Spencer Horwitz

1B

 

16. Chad Dallas

RHP

 

17. Damiano Palmegiani

OF

 

18. Connor Cooke

RHP

 

19. Tucker Toman

SS

 

20. Landen Maroudis

RHP

 

21. Cade Doughty

2B

 

22. Manuel Beltre

SS

 

23. Hagen Danner

RHP

 

24. Gabriel Martinez

OF

 

25. Rainer Nunez

1B

 

26. Devereaux Harrison

RHP

 

27. Mason Fluharty

LHP

 

28. Nolan Perry

RHP

 

29. Jace Bohrofen

OF

 

30. Connor O'Halloran

LHP

 

If you guys want to see the report on a player just ask, Cheers.

[metafour]

Adam Macko's last 3 starts. Might be showing some life:

 

14 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 8 BB, 18 K

[Brownie19]

Adam Macko's last 3 starts. Might be showing some life:

 

14 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 8 BB, 18 K

 

That's nice, but what a disappointing season it's been for him so far.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Gabby Martinez and Ranier Nunez sure s*** the bed this season, and so has Dasan Brown.

 

Zach Britton was actually having a solid campaign but has been out injured for three months now.

 

I was hoping this group would be crowding the upper minors by seasons end but none of them will see a promotion this year.

[Olerud363]

Lots of IFs in there where the assumption is that his skill set will perfectly transfer over and he will maintain all those doubles and walks, when that usually isnÂ’t the case with a player the pitchers donÂ’t fear.

 

HeÂ’d be a good stopgap or something Â…but without the HR ball, but heÂ’s not likely to be a long term solution with his severely limited defensive profile.

 

Also, a 4 war 1b/DH over a full season with only 9 HR is a pipe dream.

 

You realize guys like Marc Grace and Keith Hernandez were a thing right?

 

A .300 average with walks, doubles, good first base defense, and base running is 4 WAR.

 

It's fine if you believe Spencer Horwitz won't hit .300, walk and play good 1b defense, but that is different than saying he'll fail because he doesn't have big homerun power.

 

This is a retarded conversation. The kid is hitting .330 .450 .490 in AA, and is even stealing some bases. If that translate to .300 .400 .440 or so, which is a reasonable milb to mlb translation, and his D and baserunning isn't Vlad like that is 4 WAR.

 

I absolutely agree that his numbers may not translate, partly because he may just be a 25 year old having a real good season, and he won't hit .330 .450 .490 even in the minors consistently.

[Olerud363]

If you guys want to see the report on a player just ask, Cheers.

 

Any reason DeJesus was not on the list?

[Spanky__99]

Any reason DeJesus was not on the list?

 

Imagine he just fell off. A lot of guys have since last season.

[Olerud363]

Lots of IFs in there where the assumption is that his skill set will perfectly transfer over and he will maintain all those doubles and walks, when that usually isnÂ’t the case with a player the pitchers donÂ’t fear.

 

 

The entire pitchers won't walk him if they don't fear him is not true at all either. Right now J.P. Crawford and Pavan Smith are both in the top 20 in walk rate, just ahead of Matt Olson.

 

Matt Carpenter is 10th in walk rate and at this point pitchers shouldn't fear him.

 

The game has changed so there really aren't a lot of Sean Casey/Mark Grace types any more. Luis Arraez had 3 WAR at DH/1b last year, and that was with only 30 doubles and 50 walks.

 

So a 1b hitting .300 with 40 doubles 85 walks, 9 homers, and not terrible D and defense would be 4 WAR. That's not a pipe dream. There used to be players like that.

 

Daric Barton, Mark Grace, John Kruk, Kevin Youkilus have done 4 WAR with 9-13 homers since 1993 (when homers started increasing) before that it was probably much more common.

 

4 WAR at 1b hitting 9 homers isn't a pipedream. It doesn't happen often because

 

a) Hitters that could put up a .300 .390 .440 line with decent 1b defense, tend to be more athletic so can probably handle 2b, 3b or outfield

Guys like Horwitz if performing at peak level probably run into 20 homers so eliminate themselves from the 9 homer club (like John Olerud who was this type of players, would run into 20 homers when going very good).

 

So let's say hypothetically Spencer Horwitz was a .300 hitter with 40 doubles and 80 walks... there would be 2 reasons he wouldn't get 4 WAR with 9 homers

 

a) he's so unathletic that he'd have Vlad like D and baserunning - OK. but that has nothing to do with his power

if going well enough to hit .300 Howritz (like Olerud and others) probably get's close to 20 homers.

[Brownie19]

You realize guys like Marc Grace and Keith Hernandez were a thing right?

 

A .300 average with walks, doubles, good first base defense, and base running is 4 WAR.

 

It's fine if you believe Spencer Horwitz won't hit .300, walk and play good 1b defense, but that is different than saying he'll fail because he doesn't have big homerun power.

 

This is a retarded conversation. The kid is hitting .330 .450 .490 in AA, and is even stealing some bases. If that translate to .300 .400 .440 or so, which is a reasonable milb to mlb translation, and his D and baserunning isn't Vlad like that is 4 WAR.

 

I absolutely agree that his numbers may not translate, partly because he may just be a 25 year old having a real good season, and he won't hit .330 .450 .490 even in the minors consistently.

 

I think most just doubt his production will translate at the ML level. Most of those comps you include had a higher slugging percentages in the minors. Shawn Casey hit .380/.446/.613 in 352 PA's in AA/AAA as a 22 year old. Grace skipped AAA and was starting in the majors at age 24. Keith Hernandez was in AAA at age 20/21 and in the majors full time by age 22.

 

Lyle Overbay is probably your best comp and I suspect there are a lot of guys like Lyle Overbay who fail and never become anything.

[wamco]

You realize guys like Marc Grace and Keith Hernandez were a thing right?

 

A .300 average with walks, doubles, good first base defense, and base running is 4 WAR.

 

It's fine if you believe Spencer Horwitz won't hit .300, walk and play good 1b defense, but that is different than saying he'll fail because he doesn't have big homerun power.

 

This is a retarded conversation. The kid is hitting .330 .450 .490 in AA, and is even stealing some bases. If that translate to .300 .400 .440 or so, which is a reasonable milb to mlb translation, and his D and baserunning isn't Vlad like that is 4 WAR.

 

I absolutely agree that his numbers may not translate, partly because he may just be a 25 year old having a real good season, and he won't hit .330 .450 .490 even in the minors consistently.

 

Olerud,

 

I’m gonna need your power ranking of :

Mark grace

Keith Hernandez

Will Clark

John olerud

[Olerud363]

Olerud,

 

IÂ’m gonna need your power ranking of :

Mark grace

Keith Hernandez

Will Clark

John olerud

 

Rank, name, life time WAR, games played

1. John Olerud 57 (2200)

2. Will Clark 52 (2000)

3. Keith Hernandez 59 (2000)

4. Mark Grace 44 (2200)

 

I did the rankings before looking at WAR. Was surprised to see Keith Hernandez amass 59 WAR with 10 homers a year. I kept them the same though after because Hernandez advantage is mostly 1b defense which we are trusting the d system to work right for a guy from the 70s... top 3 are very close.

 

Mark Grace is a level below as he had less power (like Hernandez) but played in a higher power era.

 

You can argue for any of the top 3. I might be biased but I gave it to Olerud based on his top 3 seasons being the best (8.1, 8.1 and 5.8).

[Terminator]

Jays should have kept Olerud for the entirety of his career and also let him pitch.

[RotatorCuff]

Jays should have kept Olerud for the entirety of his career and also let him pitch.

 

the original Othani

[Olerud363]

I think most just doubt his production will translate at the ML level. Most of those comps you include had a higher slugging percentages in the minors. Shawn Casey hit .380/.446/.613 in 352 PA's in AA/AAA as a 22 year old. Grace skipped AAA and was starting in the majors at age 24. Keith Hernandez was in AAA at age 20/21 and in the majors full time by age 22.

 

Lyle Overbay is probably your best comp and I suspect there are a lot of guys like Lyle Overbay who fail and never become anything.

 

I 100% agree with this.

 

Overbay actually could not reach 4 WAR even when getting .300 with 50 doubles and some walks because his defense and baserunning were horrible.

 

I think what people are missing about 1b defense is that it still has a lot of variation even with the penalty. The penalty just means every 1b rates as negative.... but they can range from like -20 to almost 0.

 

Problem with Overbay and Vlad is they hit like -20 defense and -5 baserunning and it tanks their WAR by 2 or 3 wins over a guy with -2 defense and 0 base running.

 

So they idea that Horwitz (or some line drive hitter) could put up 4 WAR with like a .300 .390 .440 season or something, would also involve not ridiculous bad defense.

[BlueBaller]

Vlad doesn't even try to run that out.

[Spanky__99]

Vlad doesn't even try to run that out.

 

Wrong thread, meat.

[BlueBaller]

Wrong thread, meat.

Lol thanks cheese

[Jonn]

Any reason DeJesus was not on the list?

 

Cause he sucks mostly.

[Olerud363]

Cause he sucks mostly.

 

He was around 20 on most of the lists at the beginning of the year and is having the same kind of year as always at a higher level with a lower k-rate, that's not usually the kind of performance that gets you kicked off a list.

 

Also level/track record/present performance is all fine for a 21 year old. Doesn't suck at all.

[InsideThePark]

BA's updated top 30 after the draft and trades mid season ranking...

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann

LHP

 

 

2. Orelvis Martinez

SS

 

3. Arjun Nimmala

SS

 

4. Brandon Barriera

LHP

 

5. Addison Barger

SS

 

6. Kendry Rojas

LHP

 

7. Leo Jimenez

SS

 

8. Alan Roden

OF

 

9. Juaron Watts-Brown

RHP

 

10. Davis Schneider

2B

 

11. Yosver Zulueta

RHP

 

12. Josh Kasevich

SS

 

13. Dahian Santos

RHP

 

14. Hayden Juenger

RHP

 

15. Spencer Horwitz

1B

 

16. Chad Dallas

RHP

 

17. Damiano Palmegiani

OF

 

18. Connor Cooke

RHP

 

19. Tucker Toman

SS

 

20. Landen Maroudis

RHP

 

21. Cade Doughty

2B

 

22. Manuel Beltre

SS

 

23. Hagen Danner

RHP

 

24. Gabriel Martinez

OF

 

25. Rainer Nunez

1B

 

26. Devereaux Harrison

RHP

 

27. Mason Fluharty

LHP

 

28. Nolan Perry

RHP

 

29. Jace Bohrofen

OF

 

30. Connor O'Halloran

LHP

 

No Macko or Bonilla surprises me. Macko has been underwhelming but he's almost doubled his career high in innings and been BABIP'd a bit. I thought around 20-25 might be the floor of his drop not off the list entirely. From Shi's article yesterday it seemed like the Jays were pleased with Macko's progress and weren't so worried about the statistical results. Bonilla hasn't wow'd in his debut, but a mid 700's OPS surely doesn't wear all the shine off a 4 million signing bonus. Where did the have him in the preseason?

 

Obviously never going to agree with any list perfectly. But some minor other things that surprised me. Wasn't expecting Harrison on the list, nor Palmegiani that high. Juenger's been getting absolutely smoked in Buffalo this year. Surprises he's at 14. Happy Cooke is getting the love he deserves. Toman's been underwhelming but I didn't think he'd drop that far. I like Doughty and Bohrofen more than this as well. Thought Dominguez might sneak on the lower half of the list. Glad Perry snuck in at the end. The Trio of him, Gallagher, and Stanifer from after the 10th round in last years draft intrigue me

[Jonn]

Danner has arrived.

[InsideThePark]

MLB.com has updated their list as well

 

1. Tiedemann

2. Orelvis

3. Nimmala

4. Barriera

5. Barger

6. Jimenez

7. Roden

8. Maroudis

9. Watts-Brown

10. Zulueta

11. Santos

12. Kasevich

13. Schneider

14. Dallas

15. Toman

16. Doughty

17. Horwitz

18. Rojas

19. Palmegiani

20. De Jesus

21. Bohrofen

22. Juenger

23. Macko

24. Cooke

25. Bonilla

26. Pinto

27. G.Martinez

28. Fluharty

29. Beltre

30. Dasan Brown

[THANOS]

Danner has arrived.

 

I wonder if the corresponding move is Manoah to AAA or is it Jackson back on leave to visit his son?

 

If it's Jackson or demoting Francis, it's not great, as we should add an extra BP arm after Manoah's short start instead of keeping him on with all those off-days coming. There's an off-day 6 days from now, which is perfect, as it keeps the other 5 starters on an extra day of rest still.

 

Manoah is just not needed.

[WryNGinger]

Danner has arrived.

 

Crazy that he spent the first 3 years after being drafted as a catcher. Him and Varsho can battle it out for back-up to the back-up catcher roll now.