Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Olerud363]

He's not a prospect. There's probably a 5% chance he becomes a starter at the ML level at this point.

 

It's hard to answer this question because he is such an unusual player he has no comparison group. The players that we remember that are similar to him (like Rob Deer) have a 100% rate of being starters, but that is why we remember them.

 

Intuitively it seems to me it has to be like 75% chance he becomes a starter in some form. I can't say there has been any prospect like him in Jays history. The closest I can remember is Felipe Lopez, who didn't hit .220, but also didn't hit 30 homers, so offensively was probably a similar value in the minors, and he became a starter for a couple of years.

 

What evidence is there that players who hit .220 with 30 homers in aa at age 20 and 21 don't become starters? Like to prove your point you'd have to come up with 40 of them, show that only "2" every played 140 games in a season.

 

I would say there is a 93.4% chance he becomes a starter, at least for the As or something.

[Olerud363]

I think Brownie is being flippant. Seems like he's gone full doomer to match the energy around the board these days, not sure if he's legitimately gone off the deep end yet.

 

If his numbers translate with the same formula that Vladimir Guerrero JRs did he will do the following...

 

.220 with 60 homers at age 22

.186 with 40 homers at age 23

.155 with 19 homers at age 24

 

Basically using the Guerrero formula you hit for your minor league average but with more power at age 22, then after that average and power decline, so he will have a decent year next year but then become unplayable.

[Olerud363]

He's not a prospect. There's probably a 5% chance he becomes a starter at the ML level at this point.

 

 

His average may not decline in the same way a normal players does when he get to the Majors. Vladimir Guerrero JR, 110 mph ground balls are probably 100% hits in the minors but 75% in the majors, his 95+ ground balls are probably 60% hits or something in the minors but 30% in the majors.

 

Orevlis isn't really getting a boost from hard grounders that go through minor league infieilds, they can catch his pop ups at the same rate in the minors and majors. Players often add a bit of power in the majors.

 

So a ground ball machine with hard contact may lose a lot in the majors, but a weird popup power machine may not lose as much.

[Brownie19]

these sentences are contradictory, friend

 

To clarify, I don't consider anyone with a 5% chance of becoming a ML starter to be a prospect. For me, a prospect is someone who can have a real impact on the team. I know that may be a different bar than some. I don't really give a f*** about minor league players who become ML bench players. They are a dime a dozen - JAGs if you will. Those aren't prospects in my books.

 

Orelvis has hit .208 over his past 847 PA's (with a wRC+ barely over 100). It's sad this is about the only prospect we even talk about...

[Brownie19]

His average may not decline in the same way a normal players does when he get to the Majors. Vladimir Guerrero JR, 110 mph ground balls are probably 100% hits in the minors but 75% in the majors, his 95+ ground balls are probably 60% hits or something in the minors but 30% in the majors.

 

Orevlis isn't really getting a boost from hard grounders that go through minor league infieilds, they can catch his pop ups at the same rate in the minors and majors. Players often add a bit of power in the majors.

 

So a ground ball machine with hard contact may lose a lot in the majors, but a weird popup power machine may not lose as much.

 

Amazing. What we really need is another .200 hitter who can't hit righties. How soon will he be ready? Start printing the jerseys now - I can't wait until he arrives, needs to platoon at 3rd base, hits some home runs and helps this team finish 4th place. It will be swell.

[Olerud363]

Amazing. What we really need is another .200 hitter who can't hit righties. How soon will he be ready? Start printing the jerseys now - I can't wait until he arrives, needs to platoon at 3rd base, hits some home runs and helps this team finish 4th place. It will be swell.

 

Well your statement was that he only has a 5% chance of being a starter.... if your above scenario happens he still has a good chance of being a starter for a rebuilding team....

 

Lots of guys carry a .225 average hit for power and can produce a couple of WAR even without elite defense. Look at Schwarber or Suarez. Gallo too.

 

.220 with 35 homers, tread water with plate discipline, defense and base running is a 3 WAR player.

 

Good organization would focus on what Martinez can do, and try to optimize him, bad organization will start putting limits on a unicorn player when they are 21.

 

Let's say he had the same 'value' but hit .275 with 15 homers. Would people think he has a better shot? Would the data say so?

[Olerud363]

To clarify, I don't consider anyone with a 5% chance of becoming a ML starter to be a prospect. For me, a prospect is someone who can have a real impact on the team. I know that may be a different bar than some. I don't really give a f*** about minor league players who become ML bench players. They are a dime a dozen - JAGs if you will. Those aren't prospects in my books.

 

Orelvis has hit .208 over his past 847 PA's (with a wRC+ barely over 100). It's sad this is about the only prospect we even talk about...

 

 

If you are right this team is f***ed.

 

Theory 1. Prospects have high variance both good and bad some will surprise, some will fail, keep your chin up, even though our prospects hit .240 with some walks and power, and Baltimores prospects all hit .320 with walks and power, that isn't the end of the world, some of ours might surprise and some of theirs might fail. We will see.

 

Theory 2. Prospects have low variance, and we can predict their eventual outcomes by their minor league stats. Baltimores crew of 10 guys hitting .320 with walks and power will produce a super-team, our crew of 10 guys hitting together like .240 with power, or .290 without, are nothing, we are f***ed.

 

If you are right, then operation dark years needs to start at lunch. Trade everyone, win 50 for 3 years, and try to come back in 2028 when Baltimore's guys are getting pay raises.

[Brownie19]

Well your statement was that he only has a 5% chance of being a starter.... if your above scenario happens he still has a good chance of being a starter for a rebuilding team....

 

Lots of guys carry a .225 average hit for power and can produce a couple of WAR even without elite defense. Look at Schwarber or Suarez. Gallo too.

 

.220 with 35 homers, tread water with plate discipline, defense and base running is a 3 WAR player.

 

Good organization would focus on what Martinez can do, and try to optimize him, bad organization will start putting limits on a unicorn player when they are 21.

 

Let's say he had the same 'value' but hit .275 with 15 homers. Would people think he has a better shot? Would the data say so?

 

He's hitting .208 in his past 850 PA's in A+ and AA. Typically, we wouldn't project that forward to suggest he'll hit .225 at the ML level. Typically, we'd project he'd hit .150 at the majors. Now maybe you're correct that a player who seemingly only hits HRs or pops out in the minors will maintain his minor league average at the ML level, but .208 isn't .225. If he's .225 to .250 with a f***ton of power, then yes, I can see him becoming a contributor for this team (or another team) - Eugenio Suarez would be a good comp. But when Suarez hits around .200 - he's been f***ing s*** at the ML level.

[max silver]

To clarify, I don't consider anyone with a 5% chance of becoming a ML starter to be a prospect. For me, a prospect is someone who can have a real impact on the team. I know that may be a different bar than some. I don't really give a f*** about minor league players who become ML bench players. They are a dime a dozen - JAGs if you will. Those aren't prospects in my books.

 

Orelvis has hit .208 over his past 847 PA's (with a wRC+ barely over 100). It's sad this is about the only prospect we even talk about...

 

I know you have decided to join the doom and gloom crowd but Orelvis looks like he's figured something out in the last month and a half or so. His power has returned, but more encouragingly strikeouts are way down, walks are way up, and batting average has increased dramatically as well.

[Olerud363]

He's hitting .208 in his past 850 PA's in A+ and AA. Typically, we wouldn't project that forward to suggest he'll hit .225 at the ML level. Typically, we'd project he'd hit .150 at the majors. Now maybe you're correct that a player who seemingly only hits HRs or pops out in the minors will maintain his minor league average at the ML level, but .208 isn't .225. If he's .225 to .250 with a f***ton of power, then yes, I can see him becoming a contributor for this team (or another team) - Eugenio Suarez would be a good comp. But when Suarez hits around .200 - he's been f***ing s*** at the ML level.

 

Steamer already has Orelvis projected as hitting .202 this year.

 

Saurez hit .202 and .198 in 2020 and 2021, 2020 was a short season but he would have had 3 WAR per 162 in 2020, and was 0 WAR in 2021.

 

So Saurez can carry a .202 if plate discipline, defense and baserunning tread water... the bad 2021 had bad everything not just average.

 

Gallo had 3 WAR hitting .198.

 

Saurez hit like .270 as a minor leaguer, he hit maybe 15 homers at age 20 and 21 combined, had a .417 minor slugging percentage.

 

Orelvis is just weird and there isn't enough like him to make any conclusions. Lots of guys end up where Saurez is... lose some average but gain a lot of power in the majors, but guys that start with this kind of power and low average are pretty rare.

[Brownie19]

I know you have decided to join the doom and gloom crowd but Orelvis looks like he's figured something out in the last month and a half or so. His power has returned, but more encouragingly strikeouts are way down, walks are way up, and batting average has increased dramatically as well.

 

Good point, so before his current hot streak, Orelvis was hitting .195 with a wRC+ of 88 over his previous 681 PA's in A+ and AA. Let that one soak in. Let's hope the hot streak continues.

[Brownie19]

Steamer already has Orelvis projected as hitting .202 this year.

 

Is there any relevance to this? Does anyone think there's any accuracy in this type of projection? Honest question.

[Terminator]

I know you have decided to join the doom and gloom crowd but Orelvis looks like he's figured something out in the last month and a half or so. His power has returned, but more encouragingly strikeouts are way down, walks are way up, and batting average has increased dramatically as well.

 

Yeah something is clicking for sure. April numbers were garbage, his May numbers were really good thanks to a power explosion but his June numbers are showing a guy with a good approach. .300/.400/.588 slashline with 10 Ks and 7 BBs in 51 ABs.

 

He's going to end the year in AAA as a 21 year old with back to back 30 homer seasons in the upper levels of the minors. And he might have a good slash line this year to go with it.

[Terminator]

Good point, so before his current hot streak, Orelvis was hitting .195 with a wRC+ of 88 over his previous 681 PA's in A+ and AA. Let that one soak in. Let's hope the hot streak continues.

 

You have to account for him being one of the youngest players at those levels. He's STILL young for his current level, even a year later.

[Brownie19]

You have to account for him being one of the youngest players at those levels. He's STILL young for his current level, even a year later.

 

I guess, but it's still a .195 avg, 88 wRC+ man, with like a 25% pop up ratio man. It's been disgusting. Do we think this obvious "struggle" has helped, or hurt his development? Would he have been better staying in A ball?

[Terminator]

I guess, but it's still a .195 avg, 88 wRC+ man, with like a 25% pop up ratio man. It's been disgusting. Do we think this obvious "struggle" has helped, or hurt his development? Would he have been better staying in A ball?

 

Ok and what about the past month and a half? Do those stats not count? Everything is getting better, even his pop up rate.

 

Write him off if you want but I think he's developing pretty well. Last year was an aggressive promotion and it lead to a blip on his minor league numbers that showed some concern, but he has turned a corner and is raking.

[The Cats Ass]

It's hard to find a comparable to Orelvis. He was 20 years old, and hit 30HRs in AA last year. Looking of Fangraphs; there hasn't been anyone 21 or younger that has hit 30 for as far as they'll let me go back (2006) in AA.

[Brownie19]

Ok and what about the past month and a half? Do those stats not count? Everything is getting better, even his pop up rate.

 

Write him off if you want but I think he's developing pretty well. Last year was an aggressive promotion and it lead to a blip on his minor league numbers that showed some concern, but he has turned a corner and is raking.

 

As I said - I hope the hot streak continues. Is 6 weeks (166 PA's) of good results a sign of development, or simply a hot streak? I just find it hard to ignore how bad the previous 681 PA's were. What do you think the chances are that Orelvis becomes a ML starter?

[Brownie19]

It's hard to find a comparable to Orelvis. He was 20 years old, and hit 30HRs in AA last year. Looking of Fangraphs; there hasn't been anyone 21 or younger that has hit 30 for as far as they'll let me go back (2006) in AA.

 

Regardless of age, how many minor leaguers hit 30 HRs with a wRC+ < 100? There can't be many!

[AMS528]

As I said - I hope the hot streak continues. Is 6 weeks (166 PA's) of good results a sign of development, or simply a hot streak? I just find it hard to ignore how bad the previous 681 PA's were. What do you think the chances are that Orelvis becomes a ML starter?

 

I mean simplifying it to that doesn't so much sense to me. Taking his numbers as a whole and not just from the hot streak, he's walking way more, and striking out significantly less in the 230 PA's. Going from a 8/28 K%/BB% to a 12/20 K%/B% is a big change. Without a historically low BABIP, even if the BABIP was like .217 the way it was last year makes his numbers pretty impressive.

[Brownie19]

I mean simplifying it to that doesn't so much sense to me. Taking his numbers as a whole and not just from the hot streak, he's walking way more, and striking out significantly less in the 230 PA's. Going from a 8/28 K%/BB% to a 12/20 K%/B% is a big change. Without a historically low BABIP, even if the BABIP was like .217 the way it was last year makes his numbers pretty impressive.

 

The only reason I broke out the recent hot streak was because when I spoke about his production over his past 847 PA's, I was told to ignore that because he's been great for the past 6 weeks. His BABIP has been historically low for quite a while now and is generally explained by his batted ball data. I'm not sure a huge component of it is bad luck. His BB% / K% improvements are obviously very encouraging.

[Olerud363]

Is there any relevance to this? Does anyone think there's any accuracy in this type of projection? Honest question.

 

Yes.

 

It's a model that translates his minor league statistics to major league statistics and it works on average. Presumably since it's made by semi-professionals it factors in all kinds of things like park factors, age, league and level, strike-out rate, etc. I am not sure if it is smart enough to consider batted ball data, and that would not be available going back too long, so probably doesn't.

 

I have no idea who on the board has any experience with data analysis, or machine learning, but basically it is going to use some math and optimization to come up with a formula that predicts the past performance of players with minimum error.

 

It will predict Orelvis to do in the future, whatever all the players similar to him did in the past.

 

It is probably very common for a 20 year that is in the upper minors, to hit in the majors just as they did in the upper minors, because even though the majors is tougher, they also have growth ahead. On the other hand a 24 year old probably lose a lot more in the majors because they aren't developing any more.

 

There is huge variance in performance though. If you take 20 guys, these predictions will be good on average but all over the place for 1 guy. Same is true with major league stats though.

[Spanky99]

Good point, so before his current hot streak, Orelvis was hitting .195 with a wRC+ of 88 over his previous 681 PA's in A+ and AA. Let that one soak in. Let's hope the hot streak continues.

 

Well that's the point Brownie? lol

 

NVMD; it's been addressed.

[AMS528]

The only reason I broke out the recent hot streak was because when I spoke about his production over his past 847 PA's, I was told to ignore that because he's been great for the past 6 weeks. His BABIP has been historically low for quite a while now and is generally explained by his batted ball data. I'm not sure a huge component of it is bad luck. His BB% / K% improvements are obviously very encouraging.

 

It has been a very low BABIP and should be expected to, but even then not this low. He's hitting less infield fly balls than he did last year. Some of this probably is a bit of bad luck.

[Terminator]

As I said - I hope the hot streak continues. Is 6 weeks (166 PA's) of good results a sign of development, or simply a hot streak? I just find it hard to ignore how bad the previous 681 PA's were. What do you think the chances are that Orelvis becomes a ML starter?

 

You are making two false assumptions. First, his previous numbers weren't even that bad for being the youngest player in the league but you talk about those numbers like it's proof positive evidence that he's a bust.

 

Second, you seem to assume that his month and a half stretch of showing improved numbers across the board is more than likely a hot streak when the plausible explanation is that he's simply developing.

 

To answer your question, at this point he seems like an extremely high risk prospect. He could continue to figure things out and become a prototypical power hitting 3B or major league pitchers could exploit his approach and he's a guy who flames out after some cups of coffee. But I think he has a pretty good chance to become an MLB starter (2 WAR player) and will put that as his 50th percentile projection or so?

 

But there is obviously a long ways to go as he's just 21.

[Terminator]

Regardless of age, how many minor leaguers hit 30 HRs with a wRC+ < 100? There can't be many!

 

Big mistake. Never ignore the age/level of a prospect my friend.

[Pendleton]

[Brownie19]

Big mistake. Never ignore the age/level of a prospect my friend.

 

I wasn't ignoring it. The Cats Ass said "Looking of Fangraphs; there hasn't been anyone 21 or younger that has hit 30 for as far as they'll let me go back (2006) in AA."

 

I was simply noting there probably aren't many minor league players who've ever hit 30 HRs with a wRC+ <100.

[Brownie19]

You are making two false assumptions. First, his previous numbers weren't even that bad for being the youngest player in the league but you talk about those numbers like it's proof positive evidence that he's a bust.

 

Second, you seem to assume that his month and a half stretch of showing improved numbers across the board is more than likely a hot streak when the plausible explanation is that he's simply developing.

 

To answer your question, at this point he seems like an extremely high risk prospect. He could continue to figure things out and become a prototypical power hitting 3B or major league pitchers could exploit his approach and he's a guy who flames out after some cups of coffee. But I think he has a pretty good chance to become an MLB starter (2 WAR player) and will put that as his 50th percentile projection or so?

 

But there is obviously a long ways to go as he's just 21.

 

First - those numbers are still pretty bad no matter how old is he. I am using those numbers when considering whether or not I think he'll become a ML starter or not. As for his recent success - why are you so convinced it's tangible improvement and not simply a hot streak? All I'm saying is it could simply be a hot streak. There are LOTS of very s***** baseball players who tear the cover off the ball for short periods and never sustain that success.

 

Orelvis went from a big time prospect with all kinds of helium to someone who's now a complete wild card. He was a legit star in A Ball as a 19 year old - like he had real production while being very young for the league. Did the Jays rush him and had that had a negative effect on him? Is this just another example of poor development within the system?

[Spanky99]

First - those numbers are still pretty bad no matter how old is he. I am using those numbers when considering whether or not I think he'll become a ML starter or not. As for his recent success - why are you so convinced it's tangible improvement and not simply a hot streak? All I'm saying is it could simply be a hot streak. There are LOTS of very s***** baseball players who tear the cover off the ball for short periods and never sustain that success.

 

Orelvis went from a big time prospect with all kinds of helium to someone who's now a complete wild card. He was a legit star in A Ball as a 19 year old - like he had real production while being very young for the league. Did the Jays rush him and had that had a negative effect on him? Is this just another example of poor development within the system?

 

Your first sentence is flat out wrong. He's repeating AA as a 21 year old, bro. It might've been a little early to promote him to AA but he's made a significant change, like others said he's more than likely developing, not a hot streak, etc... who cares anyway, he's still a top prospect anyway you look at it. On the 8th of June he was just outside the top 100 from BA's write up, he's trending back up and that's a good thing, that's how the industry works, smile Brownie.