Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Brownie19]

How would we feel about dealing Groshans for an elite reliever with control like David Bednar?

 

A f*** of a lot more interested than trading him for Benintendi

[Dagagad]

How would we feel about dealing Groshans for an elite reliever with control like David Bednar?

 

This front office looked at the tire fire of our bullpen last year and traded panik, tellez and Adams. I’m not criticizing it but I’d be surprised if they traded a premium prospect for a reliever.

 

I personally wouldn’t do it.

[Grant77]

I’d trade biggio tomorrow if we could get something good for him. I’m not going as far as Keith law but I think he is just too exploitable. He also can’t play third or short, which in my opinion hurts his value as a utility guy.

 

Biggio is also 27 with three more years of arb. Give me groshans at 700k for 3 years and more upside.

 

Biggio is a proven quality starter at 2B and I don't trade him unless I get that kind of value in return. He's really looking like that 3 WAR player we had in 2019 and 2020.

[Dagagad]

Biggio is a proven quality starter at 2B and I don't trade him unless I get that kind of value in return. He's really looking like that 3 WAR player we had in 2019 and 2020.

 

Sounds like someone we could trade for a good reliever.

[Grant77]

Sounds like someone we could trade for a good reliever.

 

How does trading our only quality left handed hitter for a reliever make any sense for this team? We need to add another bat like Biggio, not subtract the one we have.

[Dagagad]

How does trading our only quality left handed hitter for a reliever make any sense for this team? We need to add another bat like Biggio, not subtract the one we have.

 

I don’t see the point of a utility guy who can’t play up the middle at all and I don’t believe in his bat. I want to trade him because he’s doing well right now, so now could be a good time to trade him. Obviously that’s very unlikely this far from the deadline.

 

We could make a separate trade for a lefty bat. I’d much rather have a righty groshans than a leftie biggio eve if we need lefties.

[Grant77]

I don’t see the point of a utility guy who can’t play up the middle at all and I don’t believe in his bat. I want to trade him because he’s doing well right now, so now could be a good time to trade him. Obviously that’s very unlikely this far from the deadline.

 

We could make a separate trade for a lefty bat. I’d much rather have a righty groshans than a leftie biggio eve if we need lefties.

 

What exactly do you consider an up the middle position? He's really pretty good at 2B. The idea of trading a good and much needed bat is a non-starter for me. It would be incredibly foolish.

[Dagagad]

What exactly do you consider an up the middle position? He's really pretty good at 2B. The idea of trading a good and much needed bat is a non-starter for me. It would be incredibly foolish.

 

I’ve always considered up the middle to be catcher, short, centre but I guess you are right. Second is up the middle?

 

I don’t agree that he is that good a bat. I think that’s the disconnect here.

 

I also think that guys who are close to the majors are assets to be used right away in the majors. They are cheaper and they sometimes have more upside. If we want our window to stay open as long as possible, trading guys like biggio to accommodate groshans makes more sense than trading groshans. I think he is probably as good as biggio right now in true talent, and he plays third which makes him more useful as I assume that if he can play third and below average short, he can also learn second, first and both corners. I’d much rather bet on his potential than any added value that biggio has this year.

 

This is a bit of a philosophical thing too. I’d always rather keep the close prospects and promote them, and trade the guys in arb 1 if I feel like I know who they are already.

 

You can’t stop developing players and giving up on 700k a year guys who are close in favor of guys who are just getting more expensive and older is not how you build a contender.

 

All this is just if we had to choose. I’m fine keeping biggio, but if it’s him blocking groshans from the roster… trade him.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Dagagad

[Grant77]

I’ve always considered up the middle to be catcher, short, centre but I guess you are right. Second is up the middle?

 

I don’t agree that he is that good a bat. I think that’s the disconnect here.

 

I also think that guys who are close to the majors are assets to be used right away in the majors. They are cheaper and they sometimes have more upside. If we want our window to stay open as long as possible, trading guys like biggio to accommodate groshans makes more sense than trading groshans. I think he is probably as good as biggio right now in true talent, and he plays third which makes him more useful as wI assume that if he can play third and below average short, he can also learn second, first and both corners. I’d much rather bet on his potential than any added value that biggio has this year.

 

You're trying to create a false dichotomy, but neither player has to be traded.

 

There's really nothing to agree or disagree about here. You are just wrong. Biggio is a good hitter now (109 wRC+) and has been one on the whole for his career (107 wRC+), even including the injury ravaged 2021.

 

The disconnect is that you're suggesting a sudden regression at age 27, during a three week stretch where he's getting on base 50% of the time. That's fine, but I'm not really buying it. We need good players now and we have one. The Groshans situation can be resolved next year if we don't trade him.

[Dagagad]

You're trying to create a false dichotomy, but neither player has to be traded.

 

There's really nothing to agree or disagree about here. You are just wrong. Biggio is a good hitter now (109 wRC+) and has been one on the whole for his career (107 wRC+), even including the injury ravaged 2021.

 

The disconnect is that you're suggesting a sudden regression at age 27, during a three week stretch where he's getting on base 50% of the time. That's fine, but I'm not really buying it. We need good players now and we have one. The Groshans situation can be resolved next year if we don't trade him.

 

I’m not suggesting a sudden regression. I’ve never thought he was good and I still don’t think he is. You can believe that 107 wrc+ over 1000 PAs proves that but I don’t believe it.

 

I’ll be delighted if I’m wrong.

 

We need good players now and next year and the year after next year and the year after that. There’s no reason why the window should shut soon or that we should stop thinking about future years.

[L54]

How would we feel about dealing Groshans for an elite reliever with control like David Bednar?

 

I think you have to do a deal like this if it is an option. Groshans is blocked across the diamond and the team's biggest need is in the bullpen.

 

Groshans lack of power is concerning for a corner bat. Maybe he has the chops to play 2B but there isn't a need there right now. Could probably play LF/RF but again no immediate need and the lack of power makes him a less than ideal fit.

 

It's okay if the Jays trade a player somewhere else and he figures it out a few years down the road. I don't think you're trading a perennial all star in Groshans and the Jays aren't really in a position to give guys extended rope over the next few years to figure it out. He's the most likely guy to be traded at the deadline in my opinion.

[Dagagad]

I refuse to believe that this front office would trade a premium prospect for bullpen help. It goes against everything I believe about their competency.

[max silver]

I’ve always considered up the middle to be catcher, short, centre but I guess you are right. Second is up the middle?

 

I don’t agree that he is that good a bat. I think that’s the disconnect here.

 

I also think that guys who are close to the majors are assets to be used right away in the majors. They are cheaper and they sometimes have more upside. If we want our window to stay open as long as possible, trading guys like biggio to accommodate groshans makes more sense than trading groshans. I think he is probably as good as biggio right now in true talent, and he plays third which makes him more useful as I assume that if he can play third and below average short, he can also learn second, first and both corners. I’d much rather bet on his potential than any added value that biggio has this year.

 

This is a bit of a philosophical thing too. I’d always rather keep the close prospects and promote them, and trade the guys in arb 1 if I feel like I know who they are already.

 

You can’t stop developing players and giving up on 700k a year guys who are close in favor of guys who are just getting more expensive and older is not how you build a contender.

 

All this is just if we had to choose. I’m fine keeping biggio, but if it’s him blocking groshans from the roster… trade him.

 

I think that Biggio isn't a guy that you would necessarily want to keep long term as he may not be good enough to be a "core" player, but during his recent stretch of play he's shown how his skillset can help the major league team win games. In a perfect world he would be able to cover the left side of the infield, but he still offers plenty of versatility as he can cover the right side of the infield as well as the corner outfield spots. The team is much better with him healthy and playing up to his capabilities as it helps to limit the amount of at bats being given to Tapia as Biggio can cover Tapia's primary positions. It's still a pretty small sample of at bats but he's producing the best expected stats of his career up to this point of the season. He'll likely never hit for much of a batting average but he has the capability to provide some nice offence at the bottom of the lineup, and the ability to get on base for the top of the lineup with regularity is a big plus.

 

I am not terribly high on Groshans right now as I'm starting to become concerned over the lack of power he has displayed in AAA. In 33 games of play he has produced all of 5 extra base hits with only 1 home run and 4 doubles. For a player largely touted for his bat a 111 WRC+ in AAA really isn't very inspiring. In my view he is increasingly becoming a guy who the front office should trade while he still has a relatively high trade value, as his stock is dwindling ala Austin Martin who also has failed to produce any power as a professional.

[L54]

I refuse to believe that this front office would trade a premium prospect for bullpen help. It goes against everything I believe about their competency.

 

There is nothing incompetent about trading prospects for bullpen help

 

I'm not even sure Jordan Groshans is a premium prospect. .064 ISO in AAA

 

The current bullpen is not cutting it in October. You don't have to trade Groshans to fix it but it does need to be addressed.

[Dagagad]

I think that Biggio isn't a guy that you would necessarily want to keep long term as he may not be good enough to be a "core" player, but during his recent stretch of play he's shown how his skillset can help the major league team win games. In a perfect world he would be able to cover the left side of the infield, but he still offers plenty of versatility as he can cover the right side of the infield as well as the corner outfield spots. The team is much better with him healthy and playing up to his capabilities as it helps to limit the amount of at bats being given to Tapia as Biggio can cover Tapia's primary positions. It's still a pretty small sample of at bats but he's producing the best expected stats of his career up to this point of the season. He'll likely never hit for much of a batting average but he has the capability to provide some nice offence at the bottom of the lineup, and the ability to get on base for the top of the lineup with regularity is a big plus.

 

I am not terribly high on Groshans right now as I'm starting to become concerned over the lack of power he has displayed in AAA. In 33 games of play he has produced all of 5 extra base hits with only 1 home run and 4 doubles. For a player largely touted for his bat a 111 WRC+ in AAA really isn't very inspiring. In my view he is increasingly becoming a guy who the front office should trade while he still has a relatively high trade value, as his stock is dwindling ala Austin Martin who also has failed to produce any power as a professional.

 

If we are trading groshans as part of a deal for a good starting pitcher, I’d be down. I’m not down with trading for bullpen, even with control.

 

I personally would not trade him. I’d wait on the power and develop him at a few different positions.

[Dagagad]

There is nothing incompetent about trading prospects for bullpen help

 

I'm not even sure Jordan Groshans is a premium prospect. .064 ISO in AAA

 

The current bullpen is not cutting it in October. You don't have to trade Groshans to fix it but it does need to be addressed.

 

The braves traded for one reliever at the deadline last year and he didn’t even make the playoff roster. They had a slightly above average bullpen in the regular season.

 

The playoffs is luck. If we are still on track for 95 wins at the deadline, there is absolutely no reason to spend anything of value on bullpen help.

 

You make trades to help you make the playoffs and then spin the wheel.

[Grant77]

I’m not suggesting a sudden regression. I’ve never thought he was good and I still don’t think he is. You can believe that 107 wrc+ over 1000 PAs proves that but I don’t believe it.

 

I’ll be delighted if I’m wrong.

 

We need good players now and next year and the year after next year and the year after that. There’s no reason why the window should shut soon or that we should stop thinking about future years.

 

You must be awfully happy then. Call me crazy, but a player in the middle of a good season with a similarly good career behind him just might be a good player. Radical, I know.

 

I'm not sure how to respond to the mortgaging the future part that you added. Nobody has suggested anything that would warrant such a comment.

[Dagagad]

You must be awfully happy then. Call me crazy, but a player in the middle of a good season with a similarly good career behind him just might be a good player. Radical, I know.

 

I'm not sure how to respond to the mortgaging the future part that you added. Nobody has suggested anything that would warrant such a comment.

 

Trading near majors prospects for immediate bullpen help is trading now for the future to some degree.

 

If you think 1000 PAs at 7% above league average means you are absolutely guaranteed to do that going forward given good health and before age regression, then I have a bridge to sell you.

[max silver]

If we are trading groshans as part of a deal for a good starting pitcher, I’d be down. I’m not down with trading for bullpen, even with control.

 

I personally would not trade him. I’d wait on the power and develop him at a few different positions.

 

I wouldn't trade Groshans straight up for a single relief arm but I'd have no qualms including him as part of a package deal with multiple players coming back. I really don't see Groshans being a great fit for this team long term unless he starts showing some sort of power potential as he's a slap hitter right now. The only near term opening in the Jays infield is likely to be third base, and with the bat Groshans is displaying right now he likely maxes out as a utility player. I think Orelvis Martinez displays a much higher ceiling than Groshans and that Groshans is the far likelier player of the two to be shipped out.

[L54]

The braves traded for one reliever at the deadline last year and he didn’t even make the playoff roster. They had a slightly above average bullpen in the regular season.

 

The playoffs is luck. If we are still on track for 95 wins at the deadline, there is absolutely no reason to spend anything of value on bullpen help.

 

You make trades to help you make the playoffs and then spin the wheel.

 

The Braves were an exception to the rule. They weren't a blueprint to producing a WS

 

Yes there is a lot of variance in the playoffs, but you're better equipped to handle the highest leverage spots with better players which is important especially in a three game series.

 

If we are spinning the wheel then looks like the roster is set. This team has a 98% chance to make the playoffs.

[Dagagad]

I wouldn't trade Groshans straight up for a single relief arm but I'd have no qualms including him as part of a package deal with multiple players coming back. I really don't see Groshans being a great fit for this team long term unless he starts showing some sort of power potential as he's a slap hitter right now. The only near term opening in the Jays infield is likely to be third base, and with the bat Groshans is displaying right now he likely maxes out as a utility player. I think Orelvis Martinez displays a much higher ceiling than Groshans and that Groshans is the far likelier player of the two to be shipped out.

 

I think if we are looking at the team two years from now, I could see groshans as utility and Orelvis at third. Both making 700k, freeing up money to extend the stars.

[Dagagad]

The Braves were an exception to the rule. They weren't a blueprint to producing a WS

 

Yes there is a lot of variance in the playoffs, but you're better equipped to handle the highest leverage spots with better players which is important especially in a three game series.

 

If we are spinning the wheel then looks like the roster is set. This team has a 98% chance to make the playoffs.

 

I agree with you actually. You can increase your playoff win by adding good players. But that’s a bad deal if it compromises your ability to make the playoffs in coming seasons.

 

I think the division if we are in contention is worth going for. Maybe the home wild card as well to a lesser extent.

 

I think we should improve the team a little if we are locked in to a wild card. Add depth starters, add some bullpen depth and promote prospects that could help in the pen.

 

If the division is realistic bump that up more but otherwise I don’t see the point. Really good bullpen help is expensive and I just don’t think it’s worth it.

 

To make this more bigger picture, I’d rather make the playoffs 5 years with an average pen than make it 3 times with a really good one we gave up good prospects to get.

 

This might all be moot. I’m pretty hyped that we seem to be producing our own swing and miss in the minors right now.

[L54]

I agree with you actually. You can increase your playoff win by adding good players. But that’s a bad deal if it compromises your ability to make the playoffs in coming seasons.

 

I think the division if we are in contention is worth going for. Maybe the home wild card as well to a lesser extent.

 

I think we should improve the team a little if we are locked in to a wild card. Add depth starters, add some bullpen depth and promote prospects that could help in the pen.

 

If the division is realistic bump that up more but otherwise I don’t see the point. Really good bullpen help is expensive and I just don’t think it’s worth it.

 

Fair enough. There's no right answer just opinions

[L54]

I don't think Groshans alone gets you Bednar. Probably needs a not so insignificant second piece.

[Dagagad]

I don't think Groshans alone gets you Bednar. Probably needs a not so insignificant second piece.

 

I think that gets it done honestly. Or at least close. I don’t think control is as valuable with relievers as other positions but could be wrong.

[TwistedLogic]

The Jays have two different pitchers named Nathanael Perez on the same team and they pitched back-to-back in today's FCL game against the Yankees.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathanael-perez/sa3017137/stats?position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathanael-perez/sa3002988/stats?position=P

 

[Grant77]

Trading near majors prospects for immediate bullpen help is trading now for the future to some degree.

 

If you think 1000 PAs at 7% above league average means you are absolutely guaranteed to do that going forward given good health and before age regression, then I have a bridge to sell you.

 

Two strawman arguments in one post. Pretty impressive.

[Spanky99]

I don't think Groshans alone gets you Bednar. Probably needs a not so insignificant second piece.

 

Agreed, he'd be expensive.

[Spanky99]

I think that gets it done honestly. Or at least close. I don’t think control is as valuable with relievers as other positions but could be wrong.

 

Nah, control is still valuable with guys like Bednar. If Ross could get a deal done with the Pirates without losing Groshans, that'd be sweet. Don't see it happening though. Pirates phone is already getting lots of work... haha!

[Deadpool]

I don’t see the point of a utility guy who can’t play up the middle at all and I don’t believe in his bat.

 

This might be a valid point if Espinal wasn't on the team. Espinal can more than capably handle 3B and SS, Biggio 2B, 1B, corner OFs. They are both above average bats, and between them we'd need BOTH Chapman and Bichette to go down at the same time before there would be any issue getting all the positions covered. The traditional utility guy is one guy who can play all of those positions (typically with a below average bat), but with the versatility on the 2022 Jays it's absolutely not required.

 

The second part of your statement is just silly. He's proven that he's an above average hitter over a large sample size. He's also shown that his poor numbers in 2021 were very likely due to nagging injuries, which were widely reported (but rarely believed around here for whatever reason).