Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Laika]

A good approach to these kind of questions is to find out if there has ever been a player like player x, who eventually became a good major league player.

 

Has there ever been a player that struck out as much as Conine in the minors and made the majors and succeeded?? Has there even ever been a player that struck out as much as Conine??

 

I'm not sure that reasoning from anecdotes is actually a "good approach to these kind of questions".

 

If you go back to the beginning of time (2006) here are some notable A or A+ names with K rates over 35% in 300+ PA

 

Lewin Brinson - made the majors, sucked, will probably always suck

Bobby Dalbec - has cut the K rate by a lot in AA this year, will very likely make the majors, we will see

Joey Gallo - we are not worthy

Travis Demeritte - made the majors, we will see, will probably suck

Tommy Pahm - hey now? did not expect this guy's name

Austin Beck - 95 wRC+ in A+ this year, Fangraphs has him at a higher FV than Conine. Not sure why I put him here.

 

And of course there have been oodles of prospects with K rates approaching or above 40% who never made it.

[AintNoThang]

A good approach to these kind of questions is to find out if there has ever been a player like player x, who eventually became a good major league player.

 

Has there ever been a player that struck out as much as Conine in the minors and made the majors and succeeded?? Has there even ever been a player that struck out as much as Conine??

 

Joey Gallo would like a word!

[Jonn]

I hope if Kay is coming hes here to make starts every 5th day.

[Krylian]

Joey Gallo would like a word!

 

How old was Gallo in A ball?

[Barkerfan23]

Final AAA Home Run Totals:

 

2018 - 3,652

2019 - 5,749

 

Love to see this trended out to 2020 - 2022

 

You could see a homerun in every inning in the near future.

[THANOS]

I hope if Kay is coming hes here to make starts every 5th day.

 

Same. I don't mind trying Zeuch as a long man, because he sucks, but I don't want to mess with Kay.

[Olerud363]

I'm not sure that reasoning from anecdotes is actually a "good approach to these kind of questions".

 

If you go back to the beginning of time (2006) here are some notable A or A+ names with K rates over 35% in 300+ PA

 

Lewin Brinson - made the majors, sucked, will probably always suck

Bobby Dalbec - has cut the K rate by a lot in AA this year, will very likely make the majors, we will see

Joey Gallo - we are not worthy

Travis Demeritte - made the majors, we will see, will probably suck

Tommy Pahm - hey now? did not expect this guy's name

Austin Beck - 95 wRC+ in A+ this year, Fangraphs has him at a higher FV than Conine. Not sure why I put him here.

 

And of course there have been oodles of prospects with K rates approaching or above 40% who never made it.

 

It's a good approach to answer the question "Can a guy with Conine's k-rate make an impact in the majors". If it has happened before the answer is, "yes it can happen".

 

Of course you can't project based on 1 guy, but for a unique player it may tell what the 5% outcome is.

 

Or project forward given a model of how k-rate ussually changes as guys advance, and figure out what Conine';s k-rate would be in MLB in 2022.

[Deadpool]

As of right now the jays have or will have by the end of the week seven players who can play the outfielder.

Don't need to call up any outfielders and really both of them didn't play well enough

to earn that right. But time will tell.

 

Todd just TERRIFIED that Alford will have a good September...

[Orgfiller]

How old was Gallo in A ball?

 

Joey Gallo was Conine's age...when he was crushing AA and getting an extended look in the MLB. He was 19 in A ball when he mashed 38 homeruns.

[Daniel Labude]

Todd just TERRIFIED that Alford will have a good September...

 

His breakout is imminent

[Brownie19]

Joey Gallo was Conine's age...when he was crushing AA and getting an extended look in the MLB. He was 19 in A ball when he mashed 38 homeruns.

 

Even Tommy Pham was 20 when he had a 36.4% K rate in A ball.

[Orgfiller]

I'm not sure that reasoning from anecdotes is actually a "good approach to these kind of questions".

 

If you go back to the beginning of time (2006) here are some notable A or A+ names with K rates over 35% in 300+ PA

 

Lewin Brinson - made the majors, sucked, will probably always suck

Bobby Dalbec - has cut the K rate by a lot in AA this year, will very likely make the majors, we will see

Joey Gallo - we are not worthy

Travis Demeritte - made the majors, we will see, will probably suck

Tommy Pahm - hey now? did not expect this guy's name

Austin Beck - 95 wRC+ in A+ this year, Fangraphs has him at a higher FV than Conine. Not sure why I put him here.

 

And of course there have been oodles of prospects with K rates approaching or above 40% who never made it.

 

For those wondering the ages in which this happened:

 

Brinson - 20

Dalbec - 21/22 (hope!)

Gallo - 19

Demeritte - 19

Pham - 20

Beck - 19

 

Conine was in his age 21 season (and recently turned 22), so he's in the older group, and to his credit, had the best hitting line among players in the criteria for which Laika filtered. This is a no-win scenario though, he better have been tearing the cover off the ball if he's older than everyone else with that K rate.

[Orgfiller]

Even Tommy Pham was 20 when he had a 36.4% K rate in A ball.

 

That year was also an outlier for him, since his K rate plummeted immediately after and he never looked back. The Cardinals also liked him enough to promote him to A+ during that year.

 

Pham has/had s***** eyesight. I'm guessing it oscillated between debilitating and manageable throughout his minor league career.

 

Excellent point.

[AintNoThang]

How old was Gallo in A ball?

 

The question posed was has any player struck out as much as Conine in the minors and made a successful transition to the majors. No mention of age per level. Gallo consistently K'd at 35+ all the way through the minors and majors...and many people said he would never survive in the MLB. I predict a Gallo type career for Conine. And I have never been wrong on any prediction....except when I said that Merriweather would have a better career than Flaherty.

[Daniel Labude]

It's a good approach to answer the question "Can a guy with Conine's k-rate make an impact in the majors". If it has happened before the answer is, "yes it can happen".

 

Of course you can't project based on 1 guy, but for a unique player it may tell what the 5% outcome is.

 

Or project forward given a model of how k-rate ussually changes as guys advance, and figure out what Conine';s k-rate would be in MLB in 2022.

 

Id also caution that part of the insane K rate this year can be attributed to the suspension and coming into the mid season having not played games...doesnt mean much overall, but I dont expect a K rate of 40% going forward...25-30% is more like it imo

[Olerud363]

Everybody fails with 97% probability (see Kevin Smith, Noda and that "Sparkyburger" guy), however if Conine doesn't fail, maybe his non-failing outcome is Joey Gallo without the defense.

[Angrioter]

Zeuch's profile has got to be one of the most disgusting that has ever existed. A 2.1% K-BB% and a 4.50 K/9 is unbelievable.

 

I can't wait to see him pitch.

 

Herderson Alvarez

[Todd]

lol that's funny.................would rather see some one that improves every year.

[Olerud363]

Herderson Alvarez

 

Jimmy key 1985

[Thaddeus Malice]

Herderson Alvarez

 

Alvarez did control his walks better generally than Zeuch has. And those two years with the Marlins he was especially great at limiting walks.

[Barkerfan23]

Zeuch's profile has got to be one of the most disgusting that has ever existed. A 2.1% K-BB% and a 4.50 K/9 is unbelievable.

 

I can't wait to see him pitch.

 

Dude is going to get destroyed, his peripherals at the minors are absolutely horrific.

 

His only saving grace is his GB rate, and with this defence good luck.

[Jimcanuck]

BA top 100 update:

 

Pearson, 7 (!)

Groshans, 38

 

That's it for the Jays. SWR just outside I would expect.

[Ray]

BA top 100 update:

 

Pearson, 7 (!)

Groshans, 38

 

That's it for the Jays. SWR just outside I would expect.

 

Woods Richardson

Manoah

Kay

Pardinho

Martinez

Moreno

Kirk

Kloffenstein

 

...all have to be on the fringes on Top 100 I imagine.

[Spanky__99]

Final AAA Home Run Totals:

 

2018 - 3,652

2019 - 5,749

 

[Krylian]

Now that Bichette has graduated, 5 of the Jays Top 6 prospects are pitchers. The future looks good.

[Todd]

Why no love for Maximo Castillo and Josh Winckowski should be on the jays top 30.

[L54]

Woods Richardson

Manoah

Kay

Pardinho

Martinez

Moreno

Kirk

Kloffenstein

 

...all have to be on the fringes on Top 100 I imagine.

 

I think SWR and Manoah would be close, but I don’t think the rest of them are in the same category of prospect.

[Brownie19]

I think SWR and Manoah would be close, but I don’t think the rest of them are in the same category of prospect.

 

Agreed. Kay may be close as well - but that's based on how close he is to the majors (v. actual talent level.

[Thaddeus Malice]

Woods Richardson

Manoah

Kay

Pardinho

Martinez

Moreno

Kirk

Kloffenstein

 

...all have to be on the fringes on Top 100 I imagine.

 

SWR aside I think most of those guys need to have another year of sustained performance at a higher level first before they're getting considered. I do think SWR should be on the list though. Even though it's only 28 innings, it's impressive as hell for an 18 year old in High A.

[Deadpool]

Agreed. Kay may be close as well - but that's based on how close he is to the majors (v. actual talent level.

 

IIRC Kay was top 100 before this years draft class was added in.