Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Brownie19]

I selfishly want to see Conine stay in Lansing a bit longer just so we can see what Groshans Conine Moreno lineup would look like for an extended period, assuming Groshans is not staying on the IL all season.

 

FFS - he better not be!

[jmomcc]

Chavez Young has been pretty good since coming off the IL. He had 3 for 4 day with a homer and a double.

[gruber92]

What's the skinny on Graham Spraker? He's doing well in Buffalo with another solid start and he just turned 24. What's his stuff like? Any potential?

[Orgfiller]

What's the skinny on Graham Spraker? He's doing well in Buffalo with another solid start and he just turned 24. What's his stuff like? Any potential?

 

This was his first start in Buffalo, not sure if he's just filling in for an injured pitcher. His numbers in Dunedin were pretty underwhelming given his age, not a lot of strikeouts.

[BlueRocky]

What's the skinny on Graham Spraker? He's doing well in Buffalo with another solid start and he just turned 24. What's his stuff like? Any potential?

 

I hear the guys down in Dunedin love this guy, it's the first time I've seen him pitch and Spraker had an excellent debut.

 

He pitched against a very good Railriders team currently leading the division.

Threw a 90-92mph FB. I think he might've touched 93 but I'm not sure.

Had both 4-Seam and 2-Seam working and threw them in bunches, attacked the plate aggressively, an educated guess @70-75% fastballs.

His 4-Seamer has good command, hit the top of the zone a lot.

His 2-Seam had lots of tailing movement arm side, generated a lot of whiffs. I think he K'd two batters with it.

 

Also threw a hammer 12-6 curveball for a strikeout, flashed it a few times to steal an easy strike.

There was a second breaking ball that tailed down but didn't use it much, I think it was a slider (or could've just been a sloppy curve)

I think I also saw like 2 changeups but he really didn't use it much. One of them got hammered for a base hit.

 

He's right-handed and they said he's 6-3 200lbs.

The way he pitches reminds me a little bit of a right-handed version of JA Happ, with a tick lower velo.

 

I'm not sure if his velocity is good enough as a rotation arm for MLB. But he had good command of his pitches overall except a few bloopers and was really aggressive throwing strikes, he mixed up the speed and location pretty well. I can see why he did well down in Dunedin.

His breaking pitch has good break but I think it's a little bit inconsistent with location and catches a lot of the plate, which is why I think he pitches so many fastballs.

Ran to first base pretty well twice on a run down, looks like he could field his position.

 

The run that scored wasn't his fault, Urena mailed it to home plate into the ground and McGuire couldn't catch it.

Edited June 7, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Orgfiller]

I hear the guys down in Dunedin love this guy, it's the first time I've seen him pitch and Spraker had an excellent debut.

 

He pitched against a very good Railriders team currently leading the division.

Threw a 90-92mph FB. I think he might've touched 93 but I'm not sure.

Had both 4-Seam and 2-Seam working and threw them in bunches, attacked the plate aggressively, an educated guess @70-75% fastballs.

His 4-Seamer has good command, hit the top of the zone a lot.

His 2-Seam had lots of tailing movement arm side, generated a lot of whiffs. I think he K'd two batters with it.

 

Also threw a hammer 12-6 curveball for a strikeout, flashed it a few times to steal an easy strike.

There was a second breaking ball that tailed down but didn't use it much, I think it was a slider (or could've just been a sloppy curve)

I think I also saw like 2 changeups but he really didn't use it much. One of them got hammered for a base hit.

 

He's right-handed and they said he's 6-3 200lbs.

The way he pitches reminds me a little bit of a right-handed version of JA Happ, with a tick lower velo.

 

I'm not sure if his velocity is good enough as a rotation arm for MLB. But he had good command of his pitches overall except a few bloopers and was really aggressive throwing strikes, he mixed up the speed and location pretty well. I can see why he did well down in Dunedin.

His breaking pitch has good break but I think it's a little bit inconsistent with location and catches a lot of the plate, which is why I think he pitches so many fastballs.

Ran to first base pretty well twice on a run down, looks like he could field his position.

 

The run that scored wasn't his fault, Urena mailed it to home plate into the ground and McGuire couldn't catch it.

 

We don't deserve you.

[TheOutsider]

I see little hype for Gabriel Moreno here. He went 2-for-4 with a homer and a walk, and he's now batting .327/.370/.612 (only 15 games) and will only turn 20 next February. Already more homers than local favourite Kirk (but nowhere near the spectacular plate discipline ofc).

[Krylian]

We don't deserve you.

 

But he's the one we need

[Olerud363]

I see little hype for Gabriel Moreno here. He went 2-for-4 with a homer and a walk, and he's now batting .327/.370/.612 (only 15 games) and will only turn 20 next February. Already more homers than local favourite Kirk (but nowhere near the spectacular plate discipline ofc).

 

Their reported weights are 160 and 220. I'd have to guess they are both really 20 lbs heavier. Still on very different ends of the obesity scale.

[Olerud363]

I see little hype for Gabriel Moreno here. He went 2-for-4 with a homer and a walk, and he's now batting .327/.370/.612 (only 15 games) and will only turn 20 next February. Already more homers than local favourite Kirk (but nowhere near the spectacular plate discipline ofc).

 

There has been a lot of talk that walk rates in the low minors don't matter. That seems so anti-intuitive. I can understand that the 4th year college player who hits .240 with 3 homers and 80 walks isn't going to do that in the majors, but I can't imagine that Moreno and Kirk's minor league walk rates don't have predictive value on their future.

 

I wonder if this claim (walk rates in the low minors don't matter) is biased by the fact that a lot of guys with high walk rates, aren't good enough to ever reach the majors (the guy hitting .240 with 80 walks, would hit .200 with 60 walks if given a full season in the majors, but that will never happen because .200 with 60 walks isn't worth anything).

 

What if you went backwards and took major league players, with high and low walk rates and looked at the correlation with their low minor league stats??

[Deadpool]

There has been a lot of talk that walk rates in the low minors don't matter. That seems so anti-intuitive. I can understand that the 4th year college player who hits .240 with 3 homers and 80 walks isn't going to do that in the majors, but I can't imagine that Moreno and Kirk's minor league walk rates don't have predictive value on their future.

 

I wonder if this claim (walk rates in the low minors don't matter) is biased by the fact that a lot of guys with high walk rates, aren't good enough to ever reach the majors (the guy hitting .240 with 80 walks, would hit .200 with 60 walks if given a full season in the majors, but that will never happen because .200 with 60 walks isn't worth anything).

 

What if you went backwards and took major league players, with high and low walk rates and looked at the correlation with their low minor league stats??

 

I always took the "walk rates in the low minors don't matter" adage to mean "those pitchers down there are so goddamn wild that anyone could walk a tonne".

[Laika]

It's not an adage. People have shown recently that walk rates in the low-minors are not predictive of major league success.

 

To Olerud's point - we know walk rates start to have predictive value in the upper minors and it would likely be easy to show that low-minors walk rates are predictive of both upper-minors walk rates and MLB walk rates (for the players that make it!), so if a prospect has other low-minors predictors of MLB success like contact rate and exceptional age vs. level, it's probably fair to apply some value to a high walk rate.

 

But that ^ type of logic does not make the scientist in me comfortable.

[BlueRocky]

I see little hype for Gabriel Moreno here. He went 2-for-4 with a homer and a walk, and he's now batting .327/.370/.612 (only 15 games) and will only turn 20 next February. Already more homers than local favourite Kirk (but nowhere near the spectacular plate discipline ofc).

 

He also had an amazing start to rookie ball and tailed off a bit, so I’m waiting for a bigger sample size before getting overly excited. Still, he’s been consistently hitting for power through every level. I don’t expect his ISO to stay near .286 all season but if he keeps it .180-.200 that’s indicative his bat has real pop. The low walk rates concern me a little bit, but if he’s keeping the strikeouts down it means he’s at least putting balls in play. He also runs well for a catcher, not unusal since his frame is almost like a shortstop. It looks like he’s in a good position to move up with the 2018 draft class like Groshans, Brodt, and Podkul.

 

Conine will likely join Kirk in Dunedin with Warmoth, Noda, Stevenson, Young, Taylor, etc.

 

Still expecting Cullen Large to be up with the Fisher Cats in the second half, he’s still doing well in Dunedin though not showing a lot of HR power, might be the FSL effect.

[Jimcanuck]

2020 Mock Draft Top 5

 

1. Orioles — Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia

 

Hancock was outshined by fellow Georgia product D.L. Hall in high school, but the now-Georgia ace has a good chance to beat Hall’s No. 21 selection in the 2017 draft and is one of the favorites to be the first overall pick. After a middling freshman season, Hancock broke out as a sophomore and was one of the best college pitchers in the country. He has plus stuff across the board with a fastball that’s routinely in the upper 90s, a slider, curveball and a changeup.

 

2. Royals — Spencer Torkelson, 1B/OF, Arizona State

 

Over the last two years, Torkelson has been one of the most productive hitters in college baseball and established himself as the top college hitter in the 2020 class. He hit 46 home runs in his first two years of college and last summer was one of the best hitters in the Cape Cod League. He has an abnormal profile for a top pick in the draft, but his power and hitting ability are enough to overcome his defensive limitations, much like Andrew Vaughn this year. Torkelson has exclusively been a first baseman at Arizona State, but last year on the Cape showed he could play right field.

 

3. Blue Jays — Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.

 

The top high school position player in the 2020 class, Crow-Armstrong seems to play the game at a different speed than everyone around him. He’s a plus-plus runner and a plus defender in center field, with an advanced approach at the plate and terrific bat-to-ball skills. He’s more of a line drive hitter now and teams will be looking to see how much impact he has in the bat, but his offensive approach is as sound as anyone in the class.

 

4. Marlins — Casey Martin, SS, Arkansas

 

Martin had a sensational freshman season as the third baseman on Arkansas’ College World Series runner-up team and followed it up with another strong year as a sophomore, while also moving to shortstop. He has a good chance to stay at the position in pro ball and brings solid power and athleticism, as well.

 

5. Mariners — Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State

 

Bailey has established himself as the top catcher in the 2020 class. He has solid power and plate discipline as a switch-hitter to go with a sound overall skillset behind the plate.

[Laika]

Spencer Torkelson for the name, please and thanks

 

The Blue Jays are doing pretty well in the Tankathon. Sitting 3rd and only 4 games back of the #1 pick.

[Olerud363]

It's not an adage. People have shown recently that walk rates in the low-minors are not predictive of major league success.

 

To Olerud's point - we know walk rates start to have predictive value in the upper minors and it would likely be easy to show that low-minors walk rates are predictive of both upper-minors walk rates and MLB walk rates (for the players that make it!), so if a prospect has other low-minors predictors of MLB success like contact rate and exceptional age vs. level, it's probably fair to apply some value to a high walk rate.

 

But that ^ type of logic does not make the scientist in me comfortable.

 

Just to make sure I understand this

 

a) Make an advanced AI system that predicts players performance in Majors based on low a data.

Make an advanced AI system that predicts players performance in Majors based on low a data except for walks (and any data that would be a proxy for walks like games played, plate appearances, and at bats (from which walks could be deduced)).

 

They know that a) and perform the same??

 

(you could use at bats, but just not at bats and plate appearances, or at bats and games, or anything that would give a clue to the number of walks).

[Slade]

Spencer Torkelson for the name, please and thanks

 

The Blue Jays are doing pretty well in the Tankathon. Sitting 3rd and only 4 games back of the #1 pick.

 

Should be leading the pack once Stroman and Sanchez are gone.

[Laika]

Just to make sure I understand this

 

a) Make an advanced AI system that predicts players performance in Majors based on low a data.

Make an advanced AI system that predicts players performance in Majors based on low a data except for walks (and any data that would be a proxy for walks like games played, plate appearances, and at bats (from which walks could be deduced)).

 

They know that a) and perform the same??

 

(you could use at bats, but just not at bats and plate appearances, or at bats and games, or anything that would give a clue to the number of walks).

 

You can read the old posts/studies if you want. https://tht.fangraphs.com/katoh-forecasting-a-hitters-major-league-performance-with-minor-league-stats/

[Slade]

 

Damn that sucks.

[devo]

Should be leading the pack once Stroman and Sanchez are gone.

 

We will definitely have a top 7 pick. Orioles, Marlins, Royals, Jays, Tigers, Giants, Mariners is my predicted draft order next year.

[keggy]

You can read the old posts/studies if you want. https://tht.fangraphs.com/katoh-forecasting-a-hitters-major-league-performance-with-minor-league-stats/

 

It's very, very difficult to evaluate the models without knowing exactly what they did, but the problem is that all of those things are correlated to each other. Also, these principles might work at a population level of all minor league prospects but not an individual prospect level.

 

Low minor walk rate is obviously somewhat important for a given prospect because it's correlated with his walk rate in the high minors, which is highly predictive of reaching the majors.

[Krylian]

 

Damn that sucks.

 

Well...I'd rather it being a foot than say, a hand. Silver linings.

[Laika]

It's very, very difficult to evaluate the models without knowing exactly what they did, but the problem is that all of those things are correlated to each other. Also, these principles might work at a population level of all minor league prospects but not an individual prospect level.

 

Low minor walk rate is obviously somewhat important for a given prospect because it's correlated with his walk rate in the high minors, which is highly predictive of reaching the majors.

 

The author of that old stuff does opine that the only reason walk rate is significant at certain levels is likely because it is correlated with ISO.

 

I agree with most of what you're saying. I'm not sure that walk rate in the high minors is "highly" predictive of reaching the majors / major league success - IIRC other indicators are more important than walk rate in the upper minors.

 

Generally, the fact that walk rate becomes more predictive the closer we get to MLB implies that it should not be wholly irrelevant in, say, A+, A, and A-, and/or that walk rate probably is relevant for a certain subclass of prospects down there.

[Terminator]

[TheHurl]

Will Robertson is the highest drafted Creighton player in 25 years since 1994. He also has the most home runs in college out of all the bats we drafted this year with 15+.

 

I could look it up but I'm lazy. Where did Nicky Lopez get drafted? I'm 90% sure he was a Creighton guy

[BlueRocky]

I could look it up but I'm lazy. Where did Nicky Lopez get drafted? I'm 90% sure he was a Creighton guy

 

5th round 2016

[Barkerfan23]

umm Griffin Conine is like destroying High A like I've never seen before.

[metafour]

He is in Low A.

[Barkerfan23]

He is in Low A.

 

His homeruns are ending up in Dunedin

[Ray]

Logan Warmoth is slashing .290/.367/.427 in High-A now.

 

K-rate is a tad high, but he's walking a decent bit too. I know it's his 2nd go around in Dunedin, but it's nice to see him doing well.