Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Grant77]

Anyone care to take a stab at a new top 15 prospect list? I’m curious where the new bunch fit in.

 

1. Guerrero Jr.

2. Bichette

3. Jansen

4. Alford

5. Pearson

6. Reid-Foley

7. Borucki

8. McKinney

9. Smith

10. Groshans

11. Biggio

12. Paulino

13. Pardinho

14. Perez

15. Zeuch

[TheHurl]

1.Guerrero Jr.

2. Bichette (up one spot for me)

3. Pearson

4. Smith

5. Guerriel (is he still eligible?)

6. Jansen

7. borucki

8. Groshans

9. Sean Reid-Foley reliever or not

10. Cavan Biggio (I'm coming around on him)

11. Perez (he's further from his RP brilliance than SRF

12. Paulino (why not)

13. Conine

14. Diaz (I loved Zeuch...but I'm going with Yennsy as my lower K, good handle guy)

15. Ryan Noda/Chad Spanberger (I'm just going to dump them together and then if Guerriel isn't eligible I still have 15)

 

The not yet legals...I'm not ranking a 17 year old. If I was Pardinho would be the second one I list.

The missing name: Todd was right, Todd was always right

[Boxcar]

Can anyone explain why I keep seeing Warmoth on top 10 lists?

 

E: Also, Fangraphs has Kevin Smith at a 42 FV. That is precision!

[Boxcar]

I'm sad that Guerrero has "JR" on his Bisons jersey...

 

I got my Jays jersey with his name on it, but didn't put the Jr. I debated it...

 

Oh well, $25 from Hong Kong, I'll live...

 

Hooray for sweatshops!

[Terminator]

Can anyone explain why I keep seeing Warmoth on top 10 lists?

 

E: Also, Fangraphs has Kevin Smith at a 42 FV. That is precision!

 

No idea. I think I'd rank Tim Tebow higher than him at this point.

[Spanky__99]

I'm sad that Guerrero has "JR" on his Bisons jersey...

 

I got my Jays jersey with his name on it, but didn't put the Jr. I debated it...

 

Oh well, $25 from Hong Kong, I'll live...

 

Get it done for a few bucks at a sports store.

[Krylian]

Can anyone explain why I keep seeing Warmoth on top 10 lists?

 

E: Also, Fangraphs has Kevin Smith at a 42 FV. That is precision!

 

Because he was a 1st round pick and they always get more rope than players taken further down....deservedly or not.

[Deadpool]

Does it look authentic? What's the cost? And could you post a link?

 

I'd like to get one made for Bichette.

 

Looks great, good quality material, has the MLB logo on the back of the neck and the Majestic logo on the sleeve. Wouldn't be totally shocked if it was made in the same factory as the official ones...

 

I had a friend who was visiting her family in Hong Kong, so she grabbed it for me... $25. (my friend, who manages my band, got a Gibbons one, which is awesome).

 

I can't find the site she linked me to pick from..

[Krylian]

Top 15

 

1 - Guerrero Jr.

2 - Bichette

3 - Jansen

4 - Pearson

5 - Groshans

6 - Borucki

7 - Alford

8 - Reid-Foley

9 - Smith

10 - Pardinho

11 - Gurriel Jr.

12 - Biggio

13 - Perez

14 - Zeuch

15 - Kloffenstein

 

Gotta say, we have some real nice depth. There were a few players I wanted to squeeze into the Top 15 but they just didn't make it.

[Brownie19]

Groshans was 3-4 with a double, HR and 6 RBI's last night. He's now hitting .380 / .439 / .593 9.8 BB% 15.4 K% 181 wRC+ in 123 PA's.

[Brownie19]

I'm sad that Guerrero has "JR" on his Bisons jersey...

 

I got my Jays jersey with his name on it, but didn't put the Jr. I debated it...

 

Oh well, $25 from Hong Kong, I'll live...

 

What # did you go with? Is he going to wear 27 at the ML level for his Dad?

[Laika]

1. Vlad

2. Bo

 

consensus 1-2

 

3. Jansen

 

I don't see the argument for anyone else. Jansen is a well-rounded, MLB-ready player at a premium position.

 

4. Pearson

5. Alford

 

Pearson's upside keeps him here for me despite the lost season. Similar argument keeps Alford afloat despite a really bad year - his proximity also helps his ranking - but 2019 is going to make or break for him I think.

 

6. Borucki

7. Smith

 

This is where the rankings get fun because there are so many options. I'm buying what Borucki is selling at the MLB level and think he has mid-rotation upside, long-term. Smith's combination of production, power, defense, and position is hard to ignore.

 

8. SRF

9. Groshans

10. Pardinho

 

Upside tier. SRF is punching out grown men in AAA, has a fantastic 2.96 FIP in 13 starts at age 22, and has a nice combination of upside and floor. Pardinho and Groshans' numbers are jumping off the page and they apparently have the tools to back it up, so I don't see the point in being hesitant to rank them highly.

 

11. Paulino

 

Hard to rank Paulino. The stuff and production has been very attractive, but he also has an extensive injury history in addition to the PED conviction. He's ranked here because he obviously has mid-rotation upside and is MLB-ready.

 

12. Zeuch

13. Biggio

14. McKinney

15. Conine

 

Really boring bottom 4, hard to get excited about any of them, but some of these guys are close and I think they are likely MLB contributors. McKinney in particular has Justin Upton upside. Conine is kind of treading water since the draft - hit tool reservations remain.

 

Did not rank comments:

 

Kloffenstein - I appreciate the reported talent but it's hard to just slide a high school arm into the top 15 in a deep system with no real data.

Perez - The K-BB% doesn't do it for me. Looks like he still needs to figure some stuff out in order to be a decent MLB RP.

Wall - probably 16th, fits into the same tier as the 12-15 guys. Boring.

Warmoth - suxxxxx.

Gurriel - is not eligible, or else he would have been somewhere 5th-7th for me.

 

I didn't really consider anyone else for the top 15 but you can obviously make a pretty decent looking top 30 at this point.

[Brownie19]

1.Guerrero Jr.

2. Bichette (up one spot for me)

3. Pearson

4. Smith

5. Guerriel (is he still eligible?)

6. Jansen

7. borucki

8. Groshans

9. Sean Reid-Foley reliever or not

10. Cavan Biggio (I'm coming around on him)

11. Perez (he's further from his RP brilliance than SRF

12. Paulino (why not)

13. Conine

14. Diaz (I loved Zeuch...but I'm going with Yennsy as my lower K, good handle guy)

15. Ryan Noda/Chad Spanberger (I'm just going to dump them together and then if Guerriel isn't eligible I still have 15)

 

The not yet legals...I'm not ranking a 17 year old. If I was Pardinho would be the second one I list.

The missing name: Todd was right, Todd was always right

 

I know most have given up on Tellez, but he's back up to posting a 112 wRC+ in AAA this season. At 23, he's only a year older than Noda + Spanberger, who are both still in A ball. At 21, Tellez was as good in AA than those 2 are in A ball this year. I'm not sure any of them should be in our Top 15 right now, but I'm not sure Noda or Spanberger belong above Tellez. Spanberger maybe based solely on the elite power.

[Grant77]

I'm surprised at how much people hate McKinney. He's 23 and having another good year at AAA. Lots of line drives and lift, just a low BABIP.

[Brownie19]

1. Vlad

2. Bo

 

consensus 1-2

 

3. Jansen

 

I don't see the argument for anyone else. Jansen is a well-rounded, MLB-ready player at a premium position.

 

4. Pearson

5. Alford

 

Pearson's upside keeps him here for me despite the lost season. Similar argument keeps Alford afloat despite a really bad year - his proximity also helps his ranking - but 2019 is going to make or break for him I think.

 

6. Borucki

7. Smith

 

This is where the rankings get fun because there are so many options. I'm buying what Borucki is selling at the MLB level and think he has mid-rotation upside, long-term. Smith's combination of production, power, defense, and position is hard to ignore.

 

8. SRF

9. Groshans

10. Pardinho

 

Upside tier. SRF is punching out grown men in AAA, has a fantastic 2.96 FIP in 13 starts at age 22, and has a nice combination of upside and floor. Pardinho and Groshans' numbers are jumping off the page and they apparently have the tools to back it up, so I don't see the point in being hesitant to rank them highly.

 

11. Paulino

 

Hard to rank Paulino. The stuff and production has been very attractive, but he also has an extensive injury history in addition to the PED conviction. He's ranked here because he obviously has mid-rotation upside and is MLB-ready.

 

12. Zeuch

13. Biggio

14. McKinney

15. Conine

 

Really boring bottom 4, hard to get excited about any of them, but some of these guys are close and I think they are likely MLB contributors. McKinney in particular has Justin Upton upside. Conine is kind of treading water since the draft - hit tool reservations remain.

 

Did not rank comments:

 

Kloffenstein - I appreciate the reported talent but it's hard to just slide a high school arm into the top 15 in a deep system with no real data.

Perez - The K-BB% doesn't do it for me. Looks like he still needs to figure some stuff out in order to be a decent MLB RP.

Wall - probably 16th, fits into the same tier as the 12-15 guys. Boring.

Warmoth - suxxxxx.

Gurriel - is not eligible, or else he would have been somewhere 5th-7th for me.

 

I didn't really consider anyone else for the top 15 but you can obviously make a pretty decent looking top 30 at this point.

 

Where's that system rank in MLB?

[Krylian]

I'm surprised at how much people hate McKinney. He's 23 and having another good year at AAA. Lots of line drives and lift, just a low BABIP.

 

Billy Upton

[Dr. Dinger]

Where's that system rank in MLB?

 

Top 5 for sure. Maybe 2nd behind San Diego, although I think their system might be slightly overrated at this point.

[Carlos Danger]

Top 15

 

1 - Guerrero Jr.

2 - Bichette

3 - Jansen

4 - Pearson

5 - Groshans

6 - Borucki

7 - Alford

8 - Reid-Foley

9 - Smith

10 - Pardinho

11 - Gurriel Jr.

12 - Biggio

13 - Perez

14 - Zeuch

15 - Kloffenstein

 

Gotta say, we have some real nice depth. There were a few players I wanted to squeeze into the Top 15 but they just didn't make it.

 

Why is Borucki still on the prospect lists? He is a MLB pitcher now. There is no way he gets sent down anytime soon. He has done well enough that he has enough rope to probably have 4-5 bad starts before they even thought about it. He is literally our best SP pitcher on the ML roster performance wise. He has pitched better than Stroman, Sanchez, Happ his last 4 starts, Estrada and Garcia..

[Krylian]

Why is Borucki still on the prospect lists? He is a MLB pitcher now. There is no way he gets sent down anytime soon. He has done well enough that he has enough rope to probably have 4-5 bad starts before they even thought about it. He is literally our best SP pitcher on the ML roster performance wise. He has pitched better than Stroman, Sanchez, Happ his last 4 starts, Estrada and Garcia..

 

If he still qualifies as a rookie then he's eligible to me. Once he cracks 50 innings then he's off. I believe it's 150 AB for a position player. Those are my criteria.

[Carlos Danger]

If he still qualifies as a rookie then he's eligible to me. Once he cracks 50 innings then he's off. I believe it's 150 AB for a position player. Those are my criteria.

 

Oh, ok, that makes sense.. Didn't realize you were doing it based on innings pitched or ABs. Thanks.

[Sammy225]

I do love our minor leagues. Hopefully a 40 year old knuckleballer does not come available and we blow our wad on him

[metafour]

 

12. Zeuch

13. Biggio

14. McKinney

15. Conine

 

Really boring bottom 4, hard to get excited about any of them, but some of these guys are close and I think they are likely MLB contributors. McKinney in particular has Justin Upton upside. Conine is kind of treading water since the draft - hit tool reservations remain.

 

What makes you say that Conine is "treading water" or that its hard to get excited about him? Its legit 1st round tools and he's hitting in Vancouver (129 wRC+, .234 ISO). The strikeouts aren't going to disappear overnight but he hasn't even been that terrible in that regard either with a 26.6% K rate.

[Laika]

What makes you say that Conine is "treading water" or that its hard to get excited about him? Its legit 1st round tools and he's hitting in Vancouver (129 wRC+, .234 ISO). The strikeouts aren't going to disappear overnight but he hasn't even been that terrible in that regard either with a 26.6% K rate.

 

The K rate isn't alarming but it also isn't good. He's performing but it's not like he's crushing the league, nor is he one of the ~10 youngest players at the level or anything like that. Treading water is a pretty good thing for a 2nd rounder to be doing but hard for me to get excited about the profile until he starts hitting at a higher level, in the future. It's not like we should have expected a guy to go from .300/.400/.600 in the ACC to struggling in the NWL.

[KingKat]

The K rate isn't alarming but it also isn't good. He's performing but it's not like he's crushing the league, nor is he one of the ~10 youngest players at the level or anything like that. Treading water is a pretty good thing for a 2nd rounder to be doing but hard for me to get excited about the profile until he starts hitting at a higher level, in the future. It's not like we should have expected a guy to go from .300/.400/.600 in the ACC to struggling in the NWL.

 

Yeah you can't really read much into results at that level from a college draftee. I mean better to hit than to not and you certainly get a little nervous if they don't hit but you can't really read much into the positive results unless they are really dramatic.

[glory]

I'm surprised at how much people hate McKinney. He's 23 and having another good year at AAA. Lots of line drives and lift, just a low BABIP.

 

I'm not sure what his upside is, but I'm interested to see what he can do in the bigs. He's shown the ability to draw walks (~10% in the minors) and practically everything he hits is a LD or FB. He doesn't have any split issues as a lefty bat either (hits lefties pretty well).

 

I'm not going to go all Justin Upton on him, but he doesn't look like a bad player. If the Jays can trade Pillar this winter then I'd be fine with giving McKinney a shot in one of the corners. Not like the team is competing. See what he has.

[Grant77]

I'm not sure what his upside is, but I'm interested to see what he can do in the bigs. He's shown the ability to draw walks (~10% in the minors) and practically everything he hits is a LD or FB. He doesn't have any split issues as a lefty bat either (hits lefties pretty well).

 

I'm not going to go all Justin Upton on him, but he doesn't look like a bad player. If the Jays can trade Pillar this winter then I'd be fine with giving McKinney a shot in one of the corners. Not like the team is competing. See what he has.

 

I get the feeling that if I had used a similarly talented player over the past 3 years like Joc Pederson or Michael Conforto, then there wouldn't be the same amount of resistance to my projection for his ceiling, but people have always overrated Upton.

 

It's clear to me that the Jays FO went hard after McKinney and will give him a chance. They absolutely love the kind of batted ball profile that he possesses, as you mentioned. I'm excited to see what he can do with the big league team when Granderson leaves.

[TheHurl]

I know most have given up on Tellez, but he's back up to posting a 112 wRC+ in AAA this season. At 23, he's only a year older than Noda + Spanberger, who are both still in A ball. At 21, Tellez was as good in AA than those 2 are in A ball this year. I'm not sure any of them should be in our Top 15 right now, but I'm not sure Noda or Spanberger belong above Tellez. Spanberger maybe based solely on the elite power.

 

Much like how I have been the low man (sans Todd) on Alford, I have never put Tellez on a list unless there were an eating contest. I am not fantasy ranking here, real baseball! Noda is athletic enough to play more than just 1B.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Fisher Cats with 10 runs through 4 innings so far today... Biggio 2 HR, Bo 2 doubles, Forrest Wall 3-3 with a double.

[TheHurl]

I get the feeling that if I had used a similarly talented player over the past 3 years like Joc Pederson or Michael Conforto, then there wouldn't be the same amount of resistance to my projection for his ceiling, but people have always overrated Upton.

 

It's clear to me that the Jays FO went hard after McKinney and will give him a chance. They absolutely love the kind of batted ball profile that he possesses, as you mentioned. I'm excited to see what he can do with the big league team when Granderson leaves.

 

It's all about the power these days. He's finally showing a little bit...but at the sacrifice of his contact. It's not like he's a huge doubles monster. Not to mention he's played in some of the best parks in the minors for LHH. For me his upside with the bat is Brian Anderson

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Biggio with another double... 10 bases through 5 innings for him. He's found his stroke again.