I'd rather have Goins than Tulo at SS for 2016+. AINEC.

[fireballW]

So if somebody offers you a player that is signed for $100 million through 2020, which you feel they are worth, whereas you see Tulo as a player that, if you were to sign him to a contract, you would value him as no more than 70 million over the same period, how does Reyes money factor into the analysis? Would you make that deal, or not make that deal?

 

I don't get how they keep missing the point.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Yeah because being in first place with an older team is such a drag

 

Did I say it was?

 

I just prefer exactly what the Cubs and Astros have done. And it's not like this is recent stuff, I've been saying it for years.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Buehrle earned every penny he was paid.

 

'magine we gave Price 25-30m per......

 

Way better pitcher, younger when acquired, worth every penny.

[GeorgiaPeach]

And I remember his contract being pretty ludicrous when he was first signed by Miami. Funny how baseball works

 

But we shouldn't dive into long term, big money contracts because..........albatross

 

But Buehrle....

 

But okay, 'cause it panned out

[Stangstag]

So if somebody offers you a player that you feel is worth $100 million through 2020, but has the same contract as Tulo, whereas you see Tulo as a player that, if you were to sign him to a contract, you would value him as no more than 70 million over the same period, how does Reyes money factor into the analysis? Would you make that deal, or not make that deal?

 

I don't understand your question

[Stangstag]

But we shouldn't dive into long term, big money contracts because..........albatross

 

But Buehrle....

 

But okay, 'cause it panned out

 

You are definitely drunk tonight

[AdamGreenwood]

Not even sure this is debatable in fact, except by those who perhaps remember Tulo in a Rockies uniform killing it for their 2009 fantasy team.

 

Tulo

• Age: 30.9
  
• Contract: Under contract for 5 more years @ avg of $18.8M/yr with $15M team option for year 6 (or $4M buyout)
  
• 2015 WAR (126 games, 526 plate appearances): 2.1
  

Goins

• Age: 27.6
  
• Contract: $513,000, not Arb eligible until 2018, under team control through 2020.
  
• 2015 WAR (113 games, 373 PAs): 1.2
  

First, adjust for the fact that Goins had been inserted games as a late-inning defensive replacement, so let's standardize WAR for 600 plate appearances instead of 162 games:

Tulo 2015 WAR / 600 PA's: 2.4

Goins 2015 WAR / 600 PA's: 1.9

 

(Nevermind the fact that penciling in Tulo for 600 PA's for any season going forward is borderline ridiculous, but let's go with that since it won't matter)

 

Granted, Tulo's historically been a ~5-6 WAR / season player. Maybe he'll return to that. History and math suggest that injury-prone 31-year olds don't work that way, but anything's possible. And who knows: maybe Goins' suddenly-respectable hitting is just a fluke. Bottom line: at present, making reasonable assumptions about what Goins might cost the Jays through a contract extension or arbitration, we're paying about $16 Million per year more for the 0.5 WAR that Tulo provides over Goins. I would literally give Tulo away to anyone who would eat that contract and use the $19M / yr on a top-of-rotation guy. I'm glad Tulo's a Blue Jay in 2015. If he returns to health and can give us 500+ PA's in 2016, I'll be thrilled to have him then too. He's better than Goins. But that contract is going to look horrible in a couple years when we're just hoping that Tulo can play 115 games for us, and team payroll -- irrespective of Rogers' deep pockets -- is an exhaustible resource.

 

TLDR: Goins + Travis + $18M spent elsewhere >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Tulo + anything.

 

Nailed it !!!

 

Anytime a player slumps for a couple months, is a great time to trade them off, at half-price.

That's the secret to building winning franchises!

[GeorgiaPeach]

You are definitely drunk tonight

 

Must be drunk off porn.

[Jimcanuck]

i'd like to see travis stay healthy for 4 months minimum before considering a tulo move. if that happens moving tulo for a couple of prospects and the salary room is a no brainer

[Stangstag]

i'd like to see travis stay healthy for 4 months minimum before considering a tulo move. if that happens moving tulo for a couple of prospects and the salary room is a no brainer

 

More like a move that someone with no brain would make. Both Edwin and Bautista are FA's in 2017.

[Jimcanuck]

More like a move that someone with no brain would make. Both Edwin and Bautista are FA's in 2017.

 

it's very unlikely an aging tulo will replace bautista and ee's bat, which is what you are implying

[Stangstag]

it's very unlikely an aging tulo will replace bautista and ee's bat, which is what you are implying

 

It's very unlikely Edwin and Bautista will both be re-signed. It is NOT unlikely that Tulo will provide more WAR per season than either of them.

[Dr Negative]

Goins will probably have just as many AB as Tulo and Travis next year anyway judging by the injury histories.

[Stangstag]

Goins will probably have just as many AB as Tulo and Travis next year anyway judging by the injury histories.

 

Maybe. I don't think we can label Travis as injury-prone just yet though. He had the same injury that never healed properly and was re-injured.

[Jimcanuck]

It's very unlikely Edwin and Bautista will both be re-signed. It is NOT unlikely that Tulo will provide more WAR per season than either of them.

 

if tulo plays injury free at SS its almost guaranteed his WAR is higher than both going forward. that doesnt justify keeping tulo at $19M a year or whatever it is rather than have Goins and Travis do both 2B and SS for $17M less.

[Soft Hands]

I have two thoughts on this thread

 

1. How was this not started by gruber?

 

2. Tulo >>>> Goins

[Jimcanuck]

I have two thoughts on this thread

 

1. How was this not started by gruber?

 

2. Tulo >>>> Goins

 

3. Goins $0.4M/WAR, Tulo $4.0M/WAR

 

ftfy

[BTS]

if tulo plays injury free at SS its almost guaranteed his WAR is higher than both going forward. that doesnt justify keeping tulo at $19M a year or whatever it is rather than have Goins and Travis do both 2B and SS for $17M less.

 

I don't think Goins really factors in to the equation. He looks like a perfect bench IF, which is more than I ever thought he'd become. Good organizations don't put players in roles that demand absolutely every last ounce of their talent. Penciling Goins into an everyday role means he's going to be hard pressed to be close to average at it. I think you put him on the bench, and then think about planning on him as a starter when he absolutely kicks the door down.

 

I think the only question that will matter re: Tulo is "Is he going to be worth his contract over the next five years?". If he comes out of the gate with a league average bat through 2-3 months next year, the answer to that question is "probably not" and you think about moving him while you can. If he comes in and looks like vintage Tulo you keep him and enjoy the MVP production.

 

I doubt Goins moves the needle on that kind of decision at all. He'd have to look like a league-average hitter for that to be the case IMO.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think Goins really factors in to the equation. He looks like a perfect bench IF, which is more than I ever thought he'd become. Good organizations don't put players in roles that demand absolutely every last ounce of their talent. Penciling Goins into an everyday role means he's going to be hard pressed to be close to average at it. I think you put him on the bench, and then think about planning on him as a starter when he absolutely kicks the door down.

 

I think the only question that will matter re: Tulo is "Is he going to be worth his contract over the next five years?". If he comes out of the gate with a league average bat through 2-3 months next year, the answer to that question is "probably not" and you think about moving him while you can. If he comes in and looks like vintage Tulo you keep him and enjoy the MVP production.

 

I doubt Goins moves the needle on that kind of decision at all. He'd have to look like a league-average hitter for that to be the case IMO.

 

Generally agree. The other aspect of this is the Jays are currently the Phillies circa 2010. The FO may not even care, but if they do, they are wise to find ways to move aging assets for younger ones.

[nextyear]

I am one of the biggest Goins fans on this forum (I like to cheer for underdogs) but I hope that Tulowitzki will recover quickly and remain healthy, and stay with the Blue Jays until he retires.

[Boxcar]

Did I say it was?

 

I just prefer exactly what the Cubs and Astros have done. And it's not like this is recent stuff, I've been saying it for years.

 

You wanted to trade Bautista and Encarnacion awhile ago, likely were not in favour of the Donaldson trade since he's not 14.

 

We know what you'd prefer and that's having a team with an average age constantly under 25 that never wins.

[Boxcar]

it's very unlikely an aging tulo will replace bautista and ee's bat, which is what you are implying

 

Even though he's younger than both of them.

[GD]

ftfy

 

If I had a dollar every time someone said "Championships aren't won by $/WAR" lmfao

[Jimcanuck]

You wanted to trade Bautista and Encarnacion awhile ago, likely were not in favour of the Donaldson trade since he's not 14.

 

We know what you'd prefer and that's having a team with an average age constantly under 25 that never wins.

 

The moves look good now, but so did the Phillies moves

 

Price was be gone, Burly will be gone, Bautista or EE will be gone after next season, Dickey has one more year if option picked up

 

Jays better win this year, will be harder next

[Jimcanuck]

If I had a dollar every time someone said "Championships aren't won by $/WAR" lmfao

 

is that what i said

[Boxcar]

The moves look good now, but so did the Phillies moves

 

Price was be gone, Burly will be gone, Bautista or EE will be gone after next season, Dickey has one more year if option picked up

 

Jays better win this year, will be harder next

 

Full year of Stroman, Tulowitzki, Revere, Travis, money coming off the books with Buehrle. Offense shouldn't be markedly worse next season and Rogers may be inclined to up payroll. I'm not too worried and we are getting a great baseball guy as president who will probably put a lot more emphasis on a stat-heavy FO.

[BTS]

Jays should be a clear favourite for the AL East in 2016. Things start to look a bit dicey by 2017 as the roster is currently constructed.

[Jimcanuck]

Jays should be a clear favourite for the AL East in 2016. Things start to look a bit dicey by 2017 as the roster is currently constructed.

 

no doubt, but will be hard pressed to match the 2015 version talent wise - but there might be a few prospects left for rentals again

[Boxcar]

no doubt, but will be hard pressed to match the 2015 version talent wise - but there might be a few prospects left for rentals again

 

What are you talking about? They have the same team minus Price, and plus Travis and Stroman.

[GD]

What are you talking about? They have the same team minus Price, and plus Travis and Stroman and Samardzija and Heyward and the pitchers they deal outfielders for.

 

sounds about right