I'd rather have Goins than Tulo at SS for 2016+. AINEC.

[JoeCarter]

Not even sure this is debatable in fact, except by those who perhaps remember Tulo in a Rockies uniform killing it for their 2009 fantasy team.

 

Tulo

• Age: 30.9
  
• Contract: Under contract for 5 more years @ avg of $18.8M/yr with $15M team option for year 6 (or $4M buyout)
  
• 2015 WAR (126 games, 526 plate appearances): 2.1
  

Goins

• Age: 27.6
  
• Contract: $513,000, not Arb eligible until 2018, under team control through 2020.
  
• 2015 WAR (113 games, 373 PAs): 1.2
  

First, adjust for the fact that Goins had been inserted games as a late-inning defensive replacement, so let's standardize WAR for 600 plate appearances instead of 162 games:

Tulo 2015 WAR / 600 PA's: 2.4

Goins 2015 WAR / 600 PA's: 1.9

 

(Nevermind the fact that penciling in Tulo for 600 PA's for any season going forward is borderline ridiculous, but let's go with that since it won't matter)

 

Granted, Tulo's historically been a ~5-6 WAR / season player. Maybe he'll return to that. History and math suggest that injury-prone 31-year olds don't work that way, but anything's possible. And who knows: maybe Goins' suddenly-respectable hitting is just a fluke. Bottom line: at present, making reasonable assumptions about what Goins might cost the Jays through a contract extension or arbitration, we're paying about $16 Million per year more for the 0.5 WAR that Tulo provides over Goins. I would literally give Tulo away to anyone who would eat that contract and use the $19M / yr on a top-of-rotation guy. I'm glad Tulo's a Blue Jay in 2015. If he returns to health and can give us 500+ PA's in 2016, I'll be thrilled to have him then too. He's better than Goins. But that contract is going to look horrible in a couple years when we're just hoping that Tulo can play 115 games for us, and team payroll -- irrespective of Rogers' deep pockets -- is an exhaustible resource.

 

TLDR: Goins + Travis + $18M spent elsewhere >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Tulo + anything.

[TheHurl]

Not even sure this is debatable in fact, except by those who perhaps remember Tulo in a Rockies uniform killing it for their 2009 fantasy team.

 

Tulo

• Age: 30.9
  
• Contract: Under contract for 5 more years @ avg of $18.8M/yr with $15M team option for year 6 (or $4M buyout)
  
• 2015 WAR (126 games, 526 plate appearances): 2.1
  

Goins

• Age: 27.6
  
• Contract: $513,000, not Arb eligible until 2018, under team control through 2020.
  
• 2015 WAR (113 games, 373 PAs): 1.2
  

First, adjust for the fact that Goins had been inserted games as a late-inning defensive replacement, so let's standardize WAR for 600 plate appearances instead of 162 games:

Tulo 2015 WAR / 600 PA's: 2.4

Goins 2015 WAR / 600 PA's: 1.9

 

(Nevermind the fact that penciling in Tulo for 600 PA's for any season going forward is borderline ridiculous, but let's go with that since it won't matter)

 

Granted, Tulo's historically been a ~5-6 WAR / season player. Maybe he'll return to that. History and math suggest that injury-prone 31-year olds don't work that way, but anything's possible. And who knows: maybe Goins' suddenly-respectable hitting is just a fluke. Bottom line: at present, making reasonable assumptions about what Goins might cost the Jays through a contract extension or arbitration, we're paying about $16 Million per year more for the 0.5 WAR that Tulo provides over Goins. I would literally give Tulo away to anyone who would eat that contract and use the $19M / yr on a top-of-rotation guy. I'm glad Tulo's a Blue Jay in 2015. If he returns to health and can give us 500+ PA's in 2016, I'll be thrilled to have him then too. He's better than Goins. But that contract is going to look horrible in a couple years when we're just hoping that Tulo can play 115 games for us, and team payroll -- irrespective of Rogers' deep pockets -- is an exhaustible resource.

 

TLDR: Goins + Travis + $18M spent elsewhere >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Tulo + anything.

 

While I'm not sold that Tulo isn't on a 2013 Reyes type slide...what if second half Goins isn't for real? What if Travis can't stay healthy? What is Tulo's trade value?

[Krylian]

I love how easily people fall in love with hot streaks.

 

Goins has been much better over the past couple of months than ever before. But to think that 'yup...he's got it figured out...no need for Tulo' is just flat out wrong and misguided.

[BTS]

Too early for this, but Tulo is like 3 months away from 'I'd give that contract away for nothing' territory.

[Boxcar]

Too early for this, but Tulo is like 3 months away from 'I'd give that contract away for nothing' territory.

 

Ugh your so dumn

 

I can't wait until Tulo puts up 6 WAR next year and shuts your stupid face

[Boxcar]

Very possible. I have no idea what his body is still capable of.

 

It's not like he had an injury plagued season. It was just really weird.

 

Then he gets injured in an incredibly fluky way to an area of his body that has always been healthy. Frankly, he stayed on the field this year and I'm not even close to writing him off. Anyone remember some guy named Joey Votto?

[Maahfaace]

It's not like he had an injury plagued season. It was just really weird.

 

Then he gets injured in an incredibly fluky way to an area of his body that has always been healthy. Frankly, he stayed on the field this year and I'm not even close to writing him off. Anyone remember some guy named Joey Votto?

 

Indeed. It's not really comparable to a guy like Reyes who relied on quickness and speed for D and O, and proceed to go into super decline as one would expect given his skill set. I expect tulo to have a monster year next season and easily put up 5+ war.

[BTS]

It's not like he had an injury plagued season. It was just really weird.

 

Then he gets injured in an incredibly fluky way to an area of his body that has always been healthy. Frankly, he stayed on the field this year and I'm not even close to writing him off. Anyone remember some guy named Joey Votto?

 

Would you give free agent Tulo $100M right now for his age-31-35 seasons? I think of he's not currently a Blue Jay that poll goes something like 50/50 on this forum.

[Maahfaace]

Would you give free agent Tulo $100M right now for his age-31-35 seasons? I think of he's not currently a Blue Jay that poll goes something like 50/50 on this forum.

 

Ya but it's more like 50 mil getting rid of mistake Reyes.

[Boxcar]

Would you give free agent Tulo $100M right now for his age-31-35 seasons? I think of he's not currently a Blue Jay that poll goes something like 50/50 on this forum.

 

If he passes a physical, sure. There's a difference between a guy making a bit more than he's worth and Ryan Howard.

[BTS]

Not that simple, we already had reyes under contract and he is not near as good, we were ble to drastically improve just by getting rid of reyes.....He was not a FA signing.

 

Reyes has nothing whatsoever to do with anything I've said in this thread.

[Stangstag]

Would you give free agent Tulo $100M right now for his age-31-35 seasons? I think of he's not currently a Blue Jay that poll goes something like 50/50 on this forum.

 

Look at the Hanley and Sandoval contracts. Tulo is a much better player than both of those guys.

[Boxcar]

That's beside the point. I wasn't calling the trade bad, I was responding to Boxy saying it's dumb that I think the contract could look like an albatross a few months into next year.

 

I don't understand why though. Tulowitzki's defence has been quite good and him scuffling at the plate had nothing to do with injury. He stayed on the field all year long.

 

Of course he could break his hip again but there's nothing to indicate that being imminent or anything. I don't see him as any more of a risk than someone like Scherzer or Kershaw.

[Maahfaace]

That's beside the point. I wasn't calling the trade bad, I was responding to Boxy saying it's dumb that I think the contract could look like an albatross a few months into next year.

 

But it absolutely does given the context of your point. Is Tulo's contract potentially an albatross. If the Jays signed him for that amount then the point you're making would have some merit. But they didn't, that has to be factored in because if the trade wasn't made we would paying 22 mil a year for a hyperactive slow no arm AAA ss

[BTS]

LMAo yes it does. you cannot ignore the circumstances in how and why we acquired him to support your little narrative, it does not work that way, he was not a FA and we already had an older, worst SS with as bad a contract..

 

This doesn't make sense. The discussion is about Tulo as an asset going forward, not the trade that was made to acquire him. For obvious reasons, Reyes no longer has anything to do with the value you attach to Tulo as an asset.

[polar bear]

I stopped reading.

 

As usual,mister tunnel vision.

[BTS]

But it absolutely does given the context of your point. Is Tulo's contract potentially an albatross. If the Jays signed him for that amount then the point you're making would have some merit. But they didn't, that has to be factored in because if the trade wasn't made we would paying 22 mil a year for a hyperactive slow no arm AAA ss

 

Holy f***. I'm talking about the value of the contract in 2016 and beyond, not evaluating the decision made to acquire it. Those are two distinct discussions.

[BTS]

I don't understand why though. Tulowitzki's defence has been quite good and him scuffling at the plate had nothing to do with injury. He stayed on the field all year long.

 

Of course he could break his hip again but there's nothing to indicate that being imminent or anything. I don't see him as any more of a risk than someone like Scherzer or Kershaw.

 

Do we know his offensive performance has nothing to do with the a use his body has taken though? Present day Tulo is the product of his history, and that's in his history. He could very well rebound and be fine, but I'm really not keen on making $100M commitments to players on their 30s, especially with a long injury history. Those deals just end badly too often.

[Maahfaace]

Holy f***. I'm talking about the value of the contract in 2016 and beyond, not evaluating the decision made to acquire it. Those are two distinct discussions.

 

I thought you were SMRT.

 

If the point you are making is if the jays signed him for 5 yrs 100 million, then yes it has the potential to be an albatross if he gets seriously injuried. But the jays didn't sign him for said contract so your hypothetical situation is kinda ********

[Boxcar]

Do we know his offensive performance has nothing to do with the a use his body has taken though? Present day Tulo is the product of his history, and that's in his history. He could very well rebound and be fine, but I'm really not keen on making $100M commitments to players on their 30s, especially with a long injury history. Those deals just end badly too often.

 

Fair enough. Perhaps the fact that Tulo is one of my favourite players even prior to the deal is causing me to be a bit biased.

[Governator]

Holy f***. I'm talking about the value of the contract in 2016 and beyond, not evaluating the decision made to acquire it. Those are two distinct discussions.

 

 

Just because Reyes declined so hard so quick, doesn't mean Tulo will. Is 30 the new 40?

[BTS]

Oh look another "I am smarter and superior to everyone else" Intenret elitest, yawn, you guys are all over the internet, get over yourself. got to stroke your fragile ego somehow right? So edgy bro.

 

 

All I'm asking is basic reading comprehension and common sense. If you can't understand that Reyes is completely irrelevant in a discussion about the asset value of Troy Tulowitzki's contract in 2016, you shouldn't be posting here.

[Maahfaace]

Honestly the tulo for reyes trade has to be all time best swap of dead weight for elite ever

[BTS]

But he is, because acquiring tulo let us rid ourselves of a worse asset going forward, not hard bro. Context is everything.

 

You're AA. It's July 2016. You're evaluating what kind of value Troy Tulowitzki's contract holds to the team relative to what his projected performance is... And Jose Reyes figures into that discussion?

[JFD]

Tulo is damn near a generational talent and Goins is a good utility guy. tough choice.

[JoeCarter]

Terms of Tulo:Reyes trade completely irrelevant to this discussion. There's nothing at all irrational about believing both:

1) The trade was a good one (I agree), and

2) Going forward, I'd rather have Goins + $19M to spend elsewhere than Tulo and his contract.

[burlingtonbandit]

I don't think you should look too much into Tulo's performance with the bat since the trade. Give him a full offseason to get settled into Toronto and let him get used to the AL. It sounded like he used to sleep in a hyperbaric chamber in Colorado so maybe thats a huge adjustment for him. The defense is still elite which is a great sign. 20 Million really isn't that much money today anyways when talking about superstars.

[TheHurl]

Mods plz

 

crying for mods doesn't help. Turning this into a legit baseball conversation is what stops these guys from starting more threads. Once people learn this the forum improves. Barring that you completely change the subject and the thread dies of natural causes.

[Cyborg]

http://home.scarlet.be/math/projvl.png

[TheHurl]

http://home.scarlet.be/math/projvl.png

 

So, V = P + P'?