Dickey Is Officially Below Replacment Level

[Boxcar]

By the way; I wouldn't beat your chest about Lawrie "proving us all wrong". His ISO power is down, his BB rate is down, his strikeout rate is way up, and even his defense is down. The only thing different is that his jump up to a .290 BA is being fueled by a ridiculous .379 BABIP. It is infinitely more likely that he reverts back to hitting like s*** in the future than it is that Donaldson suddenly falls off a cliff. He's literally striking out 8-10% more this season than he ever did in Toronto.

 

Doesn't matter, Lawrie has gotten the job done. Been a great player this year.

[TilsonBritoFan]

Gord Ash was the worst GM I have ever seen in my life but he made some good moves as well. Alex isn't as bad as Ash, but his awful roster management, lack of acknowledgment that managing/coaching matters even a tiny bit, and direction murdering trades two years ago that took a team with a bright future and turned it into this shitshow is enough for me to point to the Donaldson trade as the exception and not the norm.

 

Gord Ash tried to trade Halladay + VW for Pedro Astacio if I recall.... ewww

[BTS]

I don't really understand why everyone is jumping on Olerud. He's not saying it was a bad deal for Toronto, just that a move that looks like a heist after 80 games might not look that way after 3 or 4 years. A lot can happen. Things change fast in baseball.

[glory]

So are the good moves skill or luck?? The Jose Reyes trade would look better if Jose hit career high in WAR in his 30-32 seasons. The R.A. Dickey trade would look better if he didn't go from 5 WAR to 0.

 

I'm saying all GM's make good moves and bad moves. That doesn't mean one good move makes a GM great. The Donaldson move was amazing, and he's done some other good things in his time here, but ultimately he's proven to not know how to effectively assemble a roster and when Rogers allegedly told him to make a splash 2-3 years ago, he proceeded to cripple the long-term direction of this team in a matter of months. He's not a good GM, and while I was ready to say he's learned from his mistakes in the off-season where he was valuing WAR (Donaldson, Martin, Saunders, etc), turns out he's the same dude when it came time to set the roster.

[Olerud363]

LOL. Now you're just being ridiculous.

 

According to fangraphs Josh Donaldson OUT-WARED Lawrie 4.7-1.2 in the first half

in the second half it will only be 2.8-1.1 (predicted)

 

Both are predicted to regress to their career averages. I'm not saying Lawrie will be better, I'm saying it will be closer.

 

And 2 years from now it will be even closer. According to probability Donaldson will age.

 

I suggest suing fangraphs if you don't believe and you think they are tarnishing Donaldson unfairly.

[LTR]

According to fangraphs Josh Donaldson OUT-WARED Lawrie 4.7-1.2 in the first half

in the second half it will only be 2.8-1.1 (predicted)

 

Both are predicted to regress to their career averages. I'm not saying Lawrie will be better, I'm saying it will be closer.

 

And 2 years from now it will be even closer. According to probability Donaldson will age.

 

I suggest suing fangraphs if you don't believe and you think they are tarnishing Donaldson unfairly.

 

Dun care

[Olerud363]

I don't really understand why everyone is jumping on Olerud. He's not saying it was a bad deal for Toronto, just that a move that looks like a heist after 80 games might not look that way after 3 or 4 years. A lot can happen. Things change fast in baseball.

 

It's telling that they think the "Donaldson gets pissed off at losing" scenario is so far fetched. I guess they weren't around for the Clemens years.

 

Clemens provided 20 WAR over 2 years and they were two of the most miserable years of the franchise, there was infighting, Cito going off on the media, Cito getting fired, the Tim Johnson disaster.

 

In 1998 the Jays won 88 but they weren't really in it for a day... they had a late 10 game win streak that brought them within 4 of the wild card... but then lost some close games down the stretch.

 

The highlight of the season was the last Game Halladay was Halladay for a day and almost threw a no-hitter, Bobby Higginson hit a homer off him and Dave Stieb caught it in the bullpen.

 

So I am sure you are thinking 'what the f***??' Dave Stieb, Halladay and Roger Clemens were on the same team?? Yes and so were Jose Canseco and Tony Fernandez but it was a mess. Tim Johnson Vietnam war stories... B.J. Ryan version I, Jose Canseco and Mike Stanley crowd the DH spot, but by November we don't even have 1 DH (which hurt in 99).

 

Then Clemens demanded a trade, the Tim Johnson vietnam thing went crazy, and both showed up at Spring Training, but didn't survive it.

 

So anyway I guess I just have seen enough to know any crazy thing can happen and even a great player doesn't mean great years....

[Dick_Pole]

...might not look that way after 3 or 4 years. A lot can happen. Things change fast in baseball.

 

Funny, because if that was an argument for Sanchez turning into a top tier starter, there'd be 14 pages worth of posts saying the opposite.

 

I admire Olerud's steadfastness in defending his side of the argument.

[metafour]

I don't really understand why everyone is jumping on Olerud. He's not saying it was a bad deal for Toronto, just that a move that looks like a heist after 80 games might not look that way after 3 or 4 years. A lot can happen. Things change fast in baseball.

 

Was this trade made for 3-4 years into the future? When you make a deal under the notion that it is to improve your team NOW, and it does exactly that (to a degree even greater than you expected), worrying about what happens 3-4 years into the future is stupid. As long as you scout and draft players well, those minor league pieces are replaceable. 3-4 years from now we may have prospects even better than Barreto, at which point are you going to be crying that he was dealt for a 7+ WAR third baseman?

 

If you want to argue semantics, theoretically we could actually trade Donaldson now for even more than what we gave up for him. Why? Because he's actually gotten better, and while I'm sure that when we acquired him there still might have been some doubt around the league that he was "playing over his head", his season this year likely cemented the notion the he is in fact a true superstar player on a hilariously team friendly contract. The point? Not only are we "winning" this trade NOW (Donaldson's value greatly outclasses the value produced by what we gave up), we could very realistically move him for assets that are "expected" to outproduce the package that we gave up for him. Under that scenario, we'd be winning in the "future" as well (as long as those said players actually produced at/near expectation). That is even looking past the fact that Donaldson in "3-4 years" could still easily be outproducing what we gave up for him by himself.

 

Trying to paint this trade in any sort of negative light is flat out stretching to find some sort wart. You can find a "wart" in any good situation if you dig deep enough. You won the lottery? Maybe you get so caught up in your new lifestyle that you die of a cocaine overdose which was fueled by your new-found wealth, I guess winning the lottery wasn't so good after all?

[DuckDuckGose]

According to fangraphs Josh Donaldson OUT-WARED Lawrie 4.7-1.2 in the first half

in the second half it will only be 2.8-1.1 (predicted)

 

Both are predicted to regress to their career averages. I'm not saying Lawrie will be better, I'm saying it will be closer.

 

And 2 years from now it will be even closer. According to probability Donaldson will age.

 

I suggest suing fangraphs if you don't believe and you think they are tarnishing Donaldson unfairly.

 

Updated ZIPS has Donaldson at 7.5 WAR for the season and Lawrie at 2.2 WAR. Steamer has Donaldson at 7.4 WAR and Lawrie at 2.1 WAR. Both have the difference for the rest of the season at 1.5 to ~2 wins. That's a huge gap.

[BTS]

Was this trade made for 3-4 years into the future? When you make a deal under the notion that it is to improve your team NOW, and it does exactly that (to a degree even greater than you expected), worrying about what happens 3-4 years into the future is stupid. As long as you scout and draft players well, those minor league pieces are replaceable. 3-4 years from now we may have prospects even better than Barreto, at which point are you going to be crying that he was dealt for a 7+ WAR third baseman?

 

If you want to argue semantics, theoretically we could actually trade Donaldson now for even more than what we gave up for him. Why? Because he's actually gotten better, and while I'm sure that when we acquired him there still might have been some doubt around the league that he was "playing over his head", his season this year likely cemented the notion the he is in fact a true superstar player on a hilariously team friendly contract. The point? Not only are we "winning" this trade NOW (Donaldson's value greatly outclasses the value produced by what we gave up), we could very realistically move him for assets that are "expected" to outproduce the package that we gave up for him. Under that scenario, we'd be winning in the "future" as well (as long as those said players actually produced at/near expectation). That is even looking past the fact that Donaldson in "3-4 years" could still easily be outproducing what we gave up for him by himself.

 

Trying to paint this trade in any sort of negative light is flat out stretching to find some sort wart. You can find a "wart" in any good situation if you dig deep enough. You won the lottery? Maybe you get so caught up in your new lifestyle that you die of a cocaine overdose which was fueled by your new-found wealth, I guess winning the lottery wasn't so good after all?

 

Is he painting it in a negative light? I haven't seen it, but I haven't read every post either. You can at the same time say "this looks like a fantastic move for Toronto" and "Oakland got enough talent that this could very well not look like a giant heist a year or three from now".

[Olerud363]

Updated ZIPS has Donaldson at 7.5 WAR for the season and Lawrie at 2.2 WAR. Steamer has Donaldson at 7.4 WAR and Lawrie at 2.1 WAR. Both have the difference for the rest of the season at 1.5 to ~2 wins. That's a huge gap.

 

Me "so far Donaldson is ahead 4.7-1.1, fan graphs has it 2.8-1.2 the rest of the way"

 

You realize we said the same thing. The expectation next year will likely be 5-3 Donaldson.

[ElNik2013]

I don't really understand why everyone is jumping on Olerud. He's not saying it was a bad deal for Toronto, just that a move that looks like a heist after 80 games might not look that way after 3 or 4 years. A lot can happen. Things change fast in baseball.

 

His posts are too long.

[Olerud363]

His posts are too long.

 

Yo. Donaldson is the bomb.

[ElNik2013]

Yo. Donaldson is the bomb.

 

Keep calm, don't get mad at a joke.

[Governator]

I don't give a s*** if any one of the players we traded for Donaldson put up MVP seasons. We got what we needed from them, a player who essentially replaces one of EE or Bautista at some point and is all around an immediate upgrade at an important position. The trade made our team better and every GM would have made the exact same move in our position.

[LTR]

I don't give a s*** if any one of the players we traded for Donaldson put up MVP seasons. We got what we needed from them, a player who essentially replaces one of EE or Bautista at some point and is all around an immediate upgrade at an important position. The trade made our team better and every GM would have made the exact same move in our position.

 

Donaldson doesn't play RF or 1B or DH, so not sure how he is "replacing them"...

[Stangstag]

It's telling that they think the "Donaldson gets pissed off at losing" scenario is so far fetched. I guess they weren't around for the Clemens years.

 

Clemens provided 20 WAR over 2 years and they were two of the most miserable years of the franchise, there was infighting, Cito going off on the media, Cito getting fired, the Tim Johnson disaster.

 

In 1998 the Jays won 88 but they weren't really in it for a day... they had a late 10 game win streak that brought them within 4 of the wild card... but then lost some close games down the stretch.

 

The highlight of the season was the last Game Halladay was Halladay for a day and almost threw a no-hitter, Bobby Higginson hit a homer off him and Dave Stieb caught it in the bullpen.

 

So I am sure you are thinking 'what the f***??' Dave Stieb, Halladay and Roger Clemens were on the same team?? Yes and so were Jose Canseco and Tony Fernandez but it was a mess. Tim Johnson Vietnam war stories... B.J. Ryan version I, Jose Canseco and Mike Stanley crowd the DH spot, but by November we don't even have 1 DH (which hurt in 99).

 

Then Clemens demanded a trade, the Tim Johnson vietnam thing went crazy, and both showed up at Spring Training, but didn't survive it.

 

So anyway I guess I just have seen enough to know any crazy thing can happen and even a great player doesn't mean great years....

 

 

I really enjoyed reading this post

[L54]

Doesn't matter, Lawrie has gotten the job done. Been a great player this year.

 

You're kidding, right?

[GD]

You're kidding, right?

 

He's sarcastically referencing metafour's opinions on Sanchez "getting the job done"

[L54]

I don't really understand why everyone is jumping on Olerud. He's not saying it was a bad deal for Toronto, just that a move that looks like a heist after 80 games might not look that way after 3 or 4 years. A lot can happen. Things change fast in baseball.

 

The reason people are jumping on him is because of his hypothetical scenarios that go something like this:

 

Lawrie could hit .280 with 20 home runs. Graveman and Nolin could become a solid #3/4's and Barreto could be a top 25 prospect. Donaldson could die in a plane crash tomorrow and we would lose all surplus value. Great trade by the A's.

 

Holy f*** man, obviously all of those are within the realm of possibility. We don't need him telling us that. I try to look at things objectively without my blue shaded glasses on. It's the type of trade that the A's are built on, and will probably work out nicely for them. Lawrie provided them with a 3B to replace Donaldson who will end up being much cheaper, a couple guys to chew up innings and a SS prospect to replace the void filled from the Russell trade. The Blue Jays acquired an elite player by only subtracting Lawrie from the big league roster.

 

He parades around here acting like he was the first one to realize the trade wasn't a heist. Anyone with half a brain on the forum as acknowledged this from the beginning.

[L54]

He's sarcastically referencing metafour's opinions on Sanchez "getting the job done"

 

Good man GD.

[Governator]

Donaldson doesn't play RF or 1B or DH, so not sure how he is "replacing them"...

 

Replaces their bat...

[Olerud363]

The reason people are jumping on him is because of his hypothetical scenarios that go something like this:

 

Lawrie could hit .280 with 20 home runs. Graveman and Nolin could become a solid #3/4's and Barreto could be a top 25 prospect. Donaldson could die in a plane crash tomorrow and we would lose all surplus value. Great trade by the A's.

 

Holy f*** man, obviously all of those are within the realm of possibility. We don't need him telling us that. I try to look at things objectively without my blue shaded glasses on. It's the type of trade that the A's are built on, and will probably work out nicely for them. Lawrie provided them with a 3B to replace Donaldson who will end up being much cheaper, a couple guys to chew up innings and a SS prospect to replace the void filled from the Russell trade. The Blue Jays acquired an elite player by only subtracting Lawrie from the big league roster.

 

He parades around here acting like he was the first one to realize the trade wasn't a heist. Anyone with half a brain on the forum as acknowledged this from the beginning.

 

The comments that I am replying to are things like "AA made up for the Dickey trade with the Donaldson trade" -- People think the Donaldson Trade is so good that it made up for the other bad moves.

 

I personally don't think it is a genius trade. I think the result is to a large degree randomness that could still swing. Trade 20 prospects for four or five 5-WAR players and they won't all march in a line with 5 WAR year after year. The prospects won't all march nicely through the minors obeying their Baseball America rankings.

 

There will be a tremendous amount of randomness. People will surpise and dissapoint. When a 5 WAR guy surprises positive he becomes an MVP, when he dissapoints (Dickey, Johnson, Reyes) they can become replacement level ********.

 

The unknown prospect that no one thought anything (Gomes say) will become the impact guy. Given the number of prospects we've given up the last few years the ones that will burn us are yet to be named.

 

So we traded/signed for a bunch of guys that were expected to give us 4 or 5 WAR, Donaldson, Johnson, Dickey, Reyes, Melky... except all these players were passed prime. We end up getting a bunch of 0 WAR, 1 WAR, and 2 WAR seasons from these guys, horrible result.

 

And then one player surprises positive in half a season and this makes up for everything else?? If you realize it doesn't then we agree, and my comments aren't directed at you.

[Brownie19]

Keep calm, don't get mad at a joke.

 

It was? I thought it was very accurate. He needs to get to the point in fewer paragraphs to keep my attention.

[BigCecil]

It's telling that they think the "Donaldson gets pissed off at losing" scenario is so far fetched. I guess they weren't around for the Clemens years.

 

Clemens provided 20 WAR over 2 years and they were two of the most miserable years of the franchise, there was infighting, Cito going off on the media, Cito getting fired, the Tim Johnson disaster.

 

In 1998 the Jays won 88 but they weren't really in it for a day... they had a late 10 game win streak that brought them within 4 of the wild card... but then lost some close games down the stretch.

 

The highlight of the season was the last Game Halladay was Halladay for a day and almost threw a no-hitter, Bobby Higginson hit a homer off him and Dave Stieb caught it in the bullpen.

 

So I am sure you are thinking 'what the f***??' Dave Stieb, Halladay and Roger Clemens were on the same team?? Yes and so were Jose Canseco and Tony Fernandez but it was a mess. Tim Johnson Vietnam war stories... B.J. Ryan version I, Jose Canseco and Mike Stanley crowd the DH spot, but by November we don't even have 1 DH (which hurt in 99).

 

Then Clemens demanded a trade, the Tim Johnson vietnam thing went crazy, and both showed up at Spring Training, but didn't survive it.

 

So anyway I guess I just have seen enough to know any crazy thing can happen and even a great player doesn't mean great years....

 

I almost forgot most of this like us even having Mike Stanley...Like a bad memory from child hood I blocked it out.

[Olerud363]

It was? I thought it was very accurate. He needs to get to the point in fewer paragraphs to keep my attention.

 

I'm from the Bill James generation... didn't have WAR back then....

 

1985 - Had to write a lot to jusity and convey ideas. James and other writers wrote hundreds of pages of player comments.. James ussually wasn't limited by space. If you had to use a couple of pages to describe player you did.

 

Late 90s early 2000s - heyday of forrums... fanhome Montreal Expos was the absolute bomb... (dancing Lorias, long analysis, good natured humor, Mods were not book-burners)

 

2000 - Baseball prospectus limited player comment size and added more advanced stats. Didn't have to be as wordy.

 

2007 - Smart phones start... really hard to read any thing of length.

 

2015 - Yo Bro - 7 WAR!

[DuckDuckGose]

Me "so far Donaldson is ahead 4.7-1.1, fan graphs has it 2.8-1.2 the rest of the way"

 

You realize we said the same thing. The expectation next year will likely be 5-3 Donaldson.

 

And the expectation for the other 4 guys in the deal is a combined 1-2 WAR. It doesn't matter if they pan out, it's almost preferred so that teams will keep dealing with the Jays. AA brought back an MVP calibre player for 4 spare parts. It was a great trade, quite possibly the greatest in Blue Jays history (if they win a WS it will be regarded in the same light as the Alomar deal).

[Olerud363]

And the expectation for the other 4 guys in the deal is a combined 1-2 WAR. It doesn't matter if they pan out, it's almost preferred so that teams will keep dealing with the Jays. AA brought back an MVP calibre player for 4 spare parts. It was a great trade, quite possibly the greatest in Blue Jays history (if they win a WS it will be regarded in the same light as the Alomar deal).

 

It is similar to the Alomar deal in that the guys coming back blasted their projections out of the water.

 

1 bad player, 1 good player -> became 1 good, 1 great

 

Again if you believe it is was the greatest trade in Blue Jays history then AA deserves to stay for four more years.

 

Like Alomar, like Donaldson, AA has improved and we need AAs prime.

 

Personally I think it was positive randomness. Please start a AA-4 more years thread... if the Donaldson trade was skill we need that skill for the next four years.

[DuckDuckGose]

It is similar to the Alomar deal in that the guys coming back blasted their projections out of the water.

 

1 bad player, 1 good player -> became 1 good, 1 great

 

Again if you believe it is was the greatest trade in Blue Jays history then AA deserves to stay for four more years.

 

Like Alomar, like Donaldson, AA has improved and we need AAs prime.

 

Personally I think it was positive randomness. Please start a AA-4 more years thread... if the Donaldson trade was skill we need that skill for the next four years.

 

This is Donaldson's third season of being a MVP caliber player. I don't think it was random or a huge improvement in results. He just has a bigger track record now.

 

Why shouldn't AA stay for 4 more years? He's done exactly what ownership and the executives wanted. He's made huge trades. He's signed some big free agents. He's rebuilt the farm system twice now. He absolutely should be back for 4 more years. They need a new president but AA gets stuff done and that's what you want from a GM.