Dickey Is Officially Below Replacment Level

[GD]

I realize this but as ussual they are missing my point. Which is

 

1. I'm not saying it is a bad trade... I am saying the trade is yet to be decided.

 

A trade should be evaluated the moment it is completed. Hindsight evaluation has no use.

[GD]

We don't have the information that the teams were privy to the moment it was completed, though.

 

So we evaluate the best we can using our own information while acknowledging the other factors in play. I don't see use in looking back and saying "Wow we only got half of RA Dickey and Devon Travis for Roy Halladay"

[DuckDuckGose]

Not quite... if everyone was really exactly a 2 you'd get a playoff spot... it would be almost impossible to have 25-2s.... but if you imagine a team with a lot of platoons, decent starters, killer bullpen, it would be a good team.

 

It wouldn't happen because of random variation... so even if everyone's "true talent" was -2 you'd have a mix of 0s, 1s, 2s, and 4s...

 

no one would recognize it's an even team and they'd make up narratives regarding good and bad players...

 

Anyway if you have a 6 and a 0 it is easier to improve the 0, if you have two 3s, it is harder to improve one of the 3s. For example once we got Donaldson we were able to replace Lawrie with Travis.

 

You might luck in to a playoff spot but you're more likely to be somewhere around .500. Let's also consider playing time; if you have a team of 2-win talent some of them (namely the bench and BP) wont put up 2 wins because there aren't enough innings for them all to have an impact equal to their skill level.

[DuckDuckGose]

I realize this but as ussual they are missing my point. Which is

 

1. I'm not saying it is a bad trade... I am saying the trade is yet to be decided.

2. Donaldson is quite likely as high as he'll ever be. Scott Rolen didn't put up 8 win seasons in his 30s. He went 9 WAR at 29, then -1-5-2 from 29-32.

3. If Donaldson pulls a Scott Rolen, or a Ken Griffey Jr, or a Frank Thomas or does what any number of players have done in their 30s people will be singing a different tune in a couple of years.

4. When you trade lots of young players you may get burned.

 

One of Barreto, Gravemen, or Lawrie may explode to the upside. Individually you can look at these guys and explain why they will only be 2 or 3 WAR. However there will be random variation around the predictions, and that randomness may lead to 2 of them failing and one becoming that high WAR player. Or it could lead to all 3 of them contributing to an As playoff run in a couple years.

 

Scott Rolen blew out his shoulder and back. If Donaldson stays healthy (and Donaldson may get injured but probably not as drastically as Rolen did) he's likely to be top 5 in the MLB in terms of surplus value ie) run differential created per $ paid. If all of the guys pan out for Oakland they probably aren't as valuable as Donaldson over that 5yr period and there is a very small chance they all pan out. It was a great trade by AA.

[GD]

Like I said. Donaldson is what we wished Lawrie would be.

[GD]

Wilner does that in a positive tone when people talk about Drabek lol

 

Hear that people? Don't be Wilner!

[Madkenstalin]

I will be kinda sad to see him go, for the simple reason that I will no longer be able to say "at least ONE player on the Jays is older than me!" *sigh*

 

Same for me Not many left now in the game.

[Olerud363]

A trade should be evaluated the moment it is completed. Hindsight evaluation has no use.

 

If you believe you are making decisions with perfect information and deviation from your model is random variation then you are correct.

 

If the data and models everyone is using are perfect then the trade was even the moment it was made, and the outcome was random. No need to evaluate.

 

If one organization (or the other) had less then perfect data or model then that party (As or Jays) should do hindsight evaluation so they

can recalibrate their models.

[Olerud363]

We don't have the information that the teams were privy to the moment it was completed, though.

 

And it's panned out pretty much as expected so far, so I don't think Olerud's analysis is unfair. Lawrie is an average regular, Donaldson is a star, Graveman is useful, Nolin got hurt but probably has ML utility right now, Barreto is a good prospect.

 

I don't think it has panned out as projected... Donaldson would of been projected as a 5 win player, and he's played his mind out... he's on track for 9 wins...

 

We got a player that was high and so far he's gone higher....

[Stangstag]

I lost several thousand brain cells reading through this thread

[metafour]

Obviously I'm not allowed to point out hypothetical futures... because the past is an indication of the future... here are my predictions for the next 4 years.

 

Your "hypothetical futures" are beyond the point of reason, in an obvious effort to paint a negative outcome to fit YOUR perceived opinion of the trade. There is no logical reason to assume that Donaldson's value will significantly diminish from ages 30-32 to the point where the trade looks "bad" for us. Your second hypothetical outcome about him "being mad" playing for a losing team isn't even worth anything, as you are literally making a wild guess that not only will we be bad in the future, but that being bad would somehow negatively affect Donaldson. Even if we are bad and Donaldson is upset, so what? Is he going to stop trying to play his best? Is he going to demand a trade? Neither of those outcomes are realistic, and making predictive assumptions on those factors is so stupid that it is the equivalent of me arguing that maybe Brett Lawrie hates Mexican food so much that two years from now he has a breakdown and demands a trade out of Oakland. Its a possibility! We gotta consider it! Hey, and maybe Franklin Barreto wraps his sports car around a tree like Oscar Tavares and they get zero value out of him...it could happen!

[Olerud363]

Your "hypothetical futures" are beyond the point of reason, in an obvious effort to paint a negative outcome to fit YOUR perceived opinion of the trade. There is no logical reason to assume that Donaldson's value will significantly diminish from ages 30-32 to the point where the trade looks "bad" for us. Your second hypothetical outcome about him "being mad" playing for a losing team isn't even worth anything, as you are literally making a wild guess that not only will we be bad in the future, but that being bad would somehow negatively affect Donaldson. Even if we are bad and Donaldson is upset, so what? Is he going to stop trying to play his best? Is he going to demand a trade? Neither of those outcomes are realistic, and making predictive assumptions on those factors is so stupid that it is the equivalent of me arguing that maybe Brett Lawrie hates Mexican food so much that two years from now he has a breakdown and demands a trade out of Oakland. Its a possibility! We gotta consider it! Hey, and maybe Franklin Barreto wraps his sports car around a tree like Oscar Tavares and they get zero value out of him...it could happen!

 

There was no reason to think anything not so nice would happen to Kelly Gruber, or Ryan Zimmerman, or Scott Rolen, or David Wright, or Chris Sabo, or Eric Chavez...

 

Donaldson projections are still likely 5 WAR going forward, that doesn't mean he will get 5 WAR a year, he might play his brains out for 5 years and amass 40 WAR, he might collapse... he might produce 4.87 WAR year in year out.

 

I think people underestimate the chance Donaldson could collapse and under-estimate the chance one of the Oakland guys could break out. That's all. Never said the trade was bad...

[L54]

I think people underestimate the chance Donaldson could collapse and under-estimate the chance one of the Oakland guys could break out. That's all. Never said the trade was bad...

 

Please fill me in on the chances Donaldson collapses and the Oakland trio of Lawrie, Graveman and Nolin break out.

[L54]

Saying that people underestimate the chances of Donaldson collapsing is ridiculous. He probably has one of the safest floors in the league due to his defense at 3B and being an MVP level hitter at the Rogers Centre.

[glory]

Wow is someone actually debating the Donaldson deal? Sheesh. I hate AA but that trade was so good I would have been tempted to extend him on the spot (then I'd come to my senses after the euphoria subsided).

[Olerud363]

Wow is someone actually debating the Donaldson deal? Sheesh. I hate AA but that trade was so good I would have been tempted to extend him on the spot (then I'd come to my senses after the euphoria subsided).

 

Why would you hate AA if you love the Donaldson trade?? That does not make sense. Unless you believe AA just lucked into it.

 

I like the trade. I am being flamed because I don't love the trade.

 

The trade has looked as good as it possibly can. Donaldson was projected for 5 WAR is on track for 9.

 

I believe the gap will slowly close and a year from now the trade won't look as good.

 

But if you absolutely love the trade beyond debate then you should love AA. If it is not random, or luck, then AAs (like Donaldson) skills have developed late and should be GM for the next 4 years so we can enjoy his prime.

 

In 2012 Donaldon was not that good, but both him and AA developed in 2013 and 2014 and we should enjoy both their primes for the next 4 years.

[Olerud363]

Saying that people underestimate the chances of Donaldson collapsing is ridiculous. He probably has one of the safest floors in the league due to his defense at 3B and being an MVP level hitter at the Rogers Centre.

 

YES - Defense does not age -- it is the one skill that is absolutely unageable which is why Jose Reyes and A-Rod and Jeter could play short stop very well in their 30s.

 

I remember George Brett... the bat slowed as he aged, could barely hit by 1990 -- but the defense was so stellar, it did not age a day, I would look up on the fangraphs but I don't need to because L54 has confidence, he shows no doublt, so I know by his confident statements that 3b defense does not age.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1001400&position=3B

[glory]

Why would you hate AA if you love the Donaldson trade?? That does not make sense. Unless you believe AA just lucked into it.

 

I like the trade. I am being flamed because I don't love the trade.

 

The trade has looked as good as it possibly can. Donaldson was projected for 5 WAR is on track for 9.

 

I believe the gap will slowly close and a year from now the trade won't look as good.

 

But if you absolutely love the trade beyond debate then you should love AA. If it is not random, or luck, then AAs (like Donaldson) skills have developed late and should be GM for the next 4 years so we can enjoy his prime.

 

In 2012 Donaldon was not that good, but both him and AA developed in 2013 and 2014 and we should enjoy both their primes for the next 4 years.

 

Gord Ash was the worst GM I have ever seen in my life but he made some good moves as well. Alex isn't as bad as Ash, but his awful roster management, lack of acknowledgment that managing/coaching matters even a tiny bit, and direction murdering trades two years ago that took a team with a bright future and turned it into this shitshow is enough for me to point to the Donaldson trade as the exception and not the norm.

[Olerud363]

Wow is someone actually debating the Donaldson deal? Sheesh. I hate AA but that trade was so good I would have been tempted to extend him on the spot (then I'd come to my senses after the euphoria subsided).

 

I am not debating it... exactly. I think there is a 35% chance that As win the trade, they think it is 0%.

 

The problem is it is very difficult to justify a 35% chance that the As will still win the trade... it is easy to justify a 0% (even though we know that it is not 0% that Jays win the trade) you just act arrogant, over-confident and don't acknowledge Donaldson's downside or the other players upside.

 

It is more a societal thing... you have to act over-confident to get shiny objects.

[Brownie19]

Gord Ash was the worst GM I have ever seen in my life but he made some good moves as well. Alex isn't as bad as Ash, but his awful roster management, lack of acknowledgment that managing/coaching matters even a tiny bit, and direction murdering trades two years ago that took a team with a bright future and turned it into this shitshow is enough for me to point to the Donaldson trade as the exception and not the norm.

 

Did you miss the Vernon Wells deal? Travis for Gose? His drafting?

 

Who do you think is the best GM in baseball? I have little doubt you'll be able to dissect their "work" and come up with plenty of faults. Get off your high horse.

[Olerud363]

I am not debating it... exactly. I think there is a 35% chance that As win the trade, they think it is 0%.

 

The problem is it is very difficult to justify a 35% chance that the As will still win the trade... it is easy to justify a 0% (even though we know that it is not 0% that Jays win the trade) you just act arrogant, over-confident and don't acknowledge Donaldson's downside or the other players upside.

 

It is more a societal thing... you have to act over-confident to get shiny objects.

 

And what I mean by 'justify' a 35% chance of winning the trade.. is... well how exactly do I prove that?? Why not 30%?? or 40%?? or 20%??

 

I know there is a non-zero chance the As win the trade... I don't know exactly how to estimate it.

 

It easier to just pretend the Jays have 100% won the trade after 3 months --

 

100% Jays win the trade justification technique

 

"Yo BRO - Donaldson IS the Bomb at Rogers Center ! That tatooed guy HEGONE! And some minor leaguer is just some minor leaguer. BEane went smokin some good stuff on this one. AA got an MVP for the some s***! I hate AA but he done good on that one. Makes up for the KnuCKLEHEAD!!!!!!"

[metafour]

I believe the gap will slowly close and a year from now the trade won't look as good.

 

Isn't that expected when one team trades an MVP caliber player for a package mostly revolving around younger players/prospects?

 

Whether or not the "gap closes" is irrelevant. The trade was made to improve the team NOW, most notably because the core of Bautista/Encarnacion/Reyes/etc. is only going to be counted on for ~2 or so more reasons realistically. The beauty behind the Donaldson deal is that he's not even an old/declining player, thus there is no reason to believe that he won't be well above average even 3-4 years from now.

 

By the way: present value is worth more than future value in baseball just like money now is worth more than money in the future in finance.

[Olerud363]

Gord Ash was the worst GM I have ever seen in my life but he made some good moves as well. Alex isn't as bad as Ash, but his awful roster management, lack of acknowledgment that managing/coaching matters even a tiny bit, and direction murdering trades two years ago that took a team with a bright future and turned it into this shitshow is enough for me to point to the Donaldson trade as the exception and not the norm.

 

So are the good moves skill or luck?? The Jose Reyes trade would look better if Jose hit career high in WAR in his 30-32 seasons. The R.A. Dickey trade would look better if he didn't go from 5 WAR to 0.

[Olerud363]

Isn't that expected when one team trades an MVP caliber player for a package mostly revolving around younger players/prospects?

 

Whether or not the "gap closes" is irrelevant. The trade was made to improve the team NOW, most notably because the core of Bautista/Encarnacion/Reyes/etc. is only going to be counted on for ~2 or so more reasons realistically. The beauty behind the Donaldson deal is that he's not even an old/declining player, thus there is no reason to believe that he won't be well above average even 3-4 years from now.

 

By the way: present value is worth more than future value in baseball just like money now is worth more than money in the future in finance.

 

You could use that to justify the Dickey Deal. The 6 wins Dickey added in the present (2013/14) were more valuable then the x wins Syndergard will add...

 

Money is more valuable now because we know inflation generally marches forward.

 

If we have 20 million dollars now it can buy 5 WAR (or something).. so 20 million is more valuable now because in 5 years it (probably) will buy less WAR, 3 or something.

 

5 WAR now isn't more valuable now in the same sense. If the Jays are an 78 win team without Donaldson now, 85 with him, but a 88 win team in 2019, Franklin Baretto's WAR is probably more valuable.

[metafour]

By the way; I wouldn't beat your chest about Lawrie "proving us all wrong". His ISO power is down, his BB rate is down, his strikeout rate is way up, and even his defense is down. The only thing different is that his jump up to a .290 BA is being fueled by a ridiculous .379 BABIP. It is infinitely more likely that he reverts back to hitting like s*** in the future than it is that Donaldson suddenly falls off a cliff. He's literally striking out 8-10% more this season than he ever did in Toronto.

[IronLadle]

It's a good trade for both teams really, I'll give some credit to the A's for recognizing Graveman's talent - the guy has only allowed in 6 runs in his last 43 innings of work

[Olerud363]

By the way; I wouldn't beat your chest about Lawrie "proving us all wrong". His ISO power is down, his BB rate is down, his strikeout rate is way up, and even his defense is down. The only thing different is that his jump up to a .290 BA is being fueled by a ridiculous .379 BABIP. It is infinitely more likely that he reverts back to hitting like s*** in the future than it is that Donaldson suddenly falls off a cliff. He's literally striking out 8-10% more this season than he ever did in Toronto.

 

The most likely thing is that he'll hit at his career rates with a slight boost from the aging curve (very slight I believe)

 

The most likely thing is that Donaldson will hit at his career rates with a -10% or so from the aging curve.

 

That brings Donaldson and Lawrie somewhat closer going forward.

[Stangstag]

The most likely thing is that he'll hit at his career rates with a slight boost from the aging curve (very slight I believe)

 

The most likely thing is that Donaldson will hit at his career rates with a -10% or so from the aging curve.

 

That brings Donaldson and Lawrie somewhat closer going forward.

 

LOL. Now you're just being ridiculous.

[metafour]

It's a good trade for both teams really

 

I fail to see how it is a good trade for the A's. They had no reason to trade Donaldson, an MVP caliber player making peanuts. Just another example of crazy old Billy Beane overreacting. Given Donaldson's contractual standing, I don't even think they got enough in return.

[DuckDuckGose]

LOL. Now you're just being ridiculous.

 

Closer but still 4-5+ Wins apart.