Around Baseball 2015

[Orgfiller]

I can't completely dismiss the fact that no pitcher as short as Stroman has ever had sustained success as a starter. There have been plenty of pitchers that short, but they all end up in the bullpen or get hurt. I'm not going to pretend to know the exact reason, but I don't make a habit of betting on guys to be the only exception over a 100+ year period.

 

Pedro Martinez is all of 7 cm taller than Stroman, he did okay.

[burlingtonbandit]

Gross How? Can do add some thought and maybe some words to explain why? Thanks

 

That trade doesn't even make the team better for this season, let alone the future. CJ Wilson makes $20 Million and wouldn't even be a top 6 SP on this year's team talent wise. And I'd hate to sell low on Travis and have Goins be the starting 2B.

 

I don't want to be giving up assets to acquire number 4/5 SP.

[burlingtonbandit]

I can't completely dismiss the fact that no pitcher as short as Stroman has ever had sustained success as a starter. There have been plenty of pitchers that short, but they all end up in the bullpen or get hurt. I'm not going to pretend to know the exact reason, but I don't make a habit of betting on guys to be the only exception over a 100+ year period.

 

Blanket statements like "short pitchers don't succeed" is how Stroman got overlooked in the first place. I prefer to look at players individually, and Stroman checks off all the boxes you want to have in a SP.

 

Athletic

Makeup

Great mechanics

Command

Ability to spin the ball

[Grant77]

Pedro Martinez is all of 7 cm taller than Stroman, he did okay.

 

7 cm is an awful lot at that end of the bell curve. Someone who professes to understand statistics as well as you do should understand that.

 

I'm not trying to dismiss Stroman's chances obviously, but it's just a legitimate point to keep in mind.

 

Maybe this is career path:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phoebto01.shtml

 

I believe he's the best starter ever standing 5'8 or less.

[Grant77]

Blanket statements like "short pitchers don't succeed" is how Stroman got overlooked in the first place. I prefer to look at players individually, and Stroman checks off all the boxes you want to have in a SP.

 

Athletic

Makeup

Great mechanics

Command

Ability to spin the ball

 

A good pitcher's build and downward plane are boxes on scout's SP list. That isn't to say he's not a great pitcher or won't succeed. Only select hall of famers check off every box.

[Brownie19]

So the Angels have needs in LF and at 2b hmmmmm!

 

Would Revere and Travis be acceptable for Skaggs and Cj Wilson ?

 

Or for just Skaggs would Revere/Goins package work?

 

Discuss!

 

Option 2 gives me a massive boner

[Laika]

I can't completely dismiss the fact that no pitcher as short as Stroman has ever had sustained success as a starter. There have been plenty of pitchers that short, but they all end up in the bullpen or get hurt. I'm not going to pretend to know the exact reason, but I don't make a habit of betting on guys to be the only exception over a 100+ year period.

 

Since 1950 there have only been 39 pitchers 5'8" or shorter in the majors. Take any random 39 pitcher sample and how many would have "sustained success as a starter?"

 

Here's one 5'8" guy that started a good chunk of games: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/normafr01.shtml

[L54]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa739574&position=1B

 

How is this guy ranked 27th by KATOH with 8.3 WAR through 28?

[Grant77]

Since 1950 there have only been 39 pitchers 5'8" or shorter in the majors. Take any random 39 pitcher sample and how many would have "sustained success as a starter?"

 

Here's one 5'8" guy that started a good chunk of games: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/normafr01.shtml

 

More than zero I would imagine. I went back to 2006 and found these names in the first 39 alphabetical pitchers: Armas, Arroyo, Astacio, Baker, Beckett, Bedard, and Benson.

[Laika]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa739574&position=1B

 

How is this guy ranked 27th by KATOH with 8.3 WAR through 28?

 

Quirk based on low K%

 

There are quite a few obvious quirk players on KATOH's list. The model needs some work.

[Grant77]

Literally did the same search with Lahman lol and was about to post Fred Norman. Bobby Shantz was 5'6: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1011804&position=P.

 

I'm not sure what prompted Grant to post what he did.

 

Bobby Shantz had exactly one full season as a starter...

 

You actually notice a very common trend with guys like him, Fred Norman, and Tom Phoebus. Injuries and transition to the bullpen. Maybe there's a reason for it.

[Laika]

More than zero I would imagine. I went back to 2006 and found these names in the first 39 alphabetical pitchers: Armas, Arroyo, Astacio, Baker, Beckett, Bedard, and Benson.

 

Are you trying to tell me that you went back to 2006 and the list of the top 39 MLB pitchers alphabetically went all the way to Benson?

 

Do you think I'm a retard?

[Boxcar]

Are you trying to tell me that you went back to 2006 and the list of the top 39 MLB pitchers alphabetically went all the way to Benson?

 

Do you think I'm a retard?

 

Assburgers remember

[closetjaysfan]

The thought that taller pitchers are shorter than shorter ones is retarded. Are their arm ligaments supposed to be stronger or something? Is it because baseball people just assume short guys must be throwing at 100% effort every pitch and big guys just lob it up there? There's no actual reasoning that you can think of to make you decide taller pitchers are more durable. There's no f***ing contact in baseball, body mass doesn't even matter.

 

There are few historical short SPs because baseball people have been notoriously retarded throughout the history of the sport. Short guys never got a chance. And when they did and had any sort of hiccup I guarantee you they were put in the pen immediately. "Well, would ya look at that? The short kid gave up a couple homers there yesterday, huh? Looks like he just can't handle it. Go get me that big, tall kid in the minors. Ya, that's a real horse!"

 

I mean, height is not even a useful metric for a pitcher. Standing reach is more useful because it accounts for arm length. If Stroman is 5'9" and happens to have the standing reach of a 6 foot pitcher then he might generate more torque than a normal 5'9" guy or he might have a greater perceived velocity because his long arms let him get as close to the plate as a 6 foot guy. It's all so stupid.

 

To sum up this article in it's one words: "Shorter pitchers are just as effective and durable as taller pitchers"

 

http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

[burlingtonbandit]

A good pitcher's build and downward plane are boxes on scout's SP list. That isn't to say he's not a great pitcher or won't succeed. Only select hall of famers check off every box.

 

Downhill plane doesn't really matter in Stroman's case since he gets a ton of groundballs. Stroman 0.51 HR/9 the last 2 years which is among the best in all of baseball so you can check off that box as well.

[Laika]

Assburgers remember

 

now I'm hungry

[Stangstag]

Are you trying to tell me that you went back to 2006 and the list of the top 39 MLB pitchers alphabetically went all the way to Benson?

 

Do you think I'm a retard?

 

Oh my god I spit out my drink laughing at this

[Grant77]

Are you trying to tell me that you went back to 2006 and the list of the top 39 MLB pitchers alphabetically went all the way to Benson?

 

Do you think I'm a retard?

 

Here's the list if you want to look for yourself. He's number 46, but there are doubles, so he's actually 38.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2006-standard-pitching.shtml

 

Alphabetical order seemed like a pretty fair way to get a random sample of 39 pitchers at any given time.

 

If you want me to go the other way you get:

 

Barry Zito, Carlos and Victor Zambrano, Chris Young, Kerry Wood, Randy Wolf, C.J. Wilson, Dontrelle Willis Woody Williams, Jake Westbrook, David Wells, Brandon Webb, Jered Weaver, Jeff Weaver...

[Grant77]

The thought that taller pitchers are shorter than shorter ones is retarded.

 

I agree.

[Laika]

Here's the list if you want to look for yourself. He's number 46, but there are doubles, so he's actually 38.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2006-standard-pitching.shtml

 

Alphabetical order seemed like a pretty fair way to get a random sample of 39 pitchers at any given time.

 

I took it as 2006-2015

 

Still, you know that your example demonstrates nothing at all. To quote yourself, "Someone who professes to understand statistics as well as you do should understand that."

[Grant77]

You wouldn't really expect any such trend to show up in the aggregate production, since the players are selected by the teams for their ability to create value. You'd expect every demographic subset to have the same aggregate production given a large sample. Being taller than 5'9 would certainly be good for a pitcher's viability but it may not be that two pitchers who have equal skill levels but differing heights are differently valued.

 

Grant's statement is wrong. There are 22 sub-5'10 pitchers in the modern era with at least five seasons of 20+ starts. Several were effective for an extended period.

 

I said 5'8, I didn't say 5'10.

[Brownie19]

More than zero I would imagine. I went back to 2006 and found these names in the first 39 alphabetical pitchers: Armas, Arroyo, Astacio, Baker, Beckett, Bedard, and Benson.

 

Beckett's a nice name. Good pitcher too.

[Boxcar]

I didn't say 5'10 either... I said 5'9 and under.

 

Harvey Haddix was 5'9 and got to 40 fWAR, 285 career starts. Had that spectacular 13 inning perfect game bid.

 

Well he said 5'8. That last inch matters. Try to keep up.

[KingKat]

That last inch matters.

 

That's what she said!

 

 

(I'll show myself out.)

[Boxcar]

That's what she said!

 

 

(I'll show myself out.)

 

Always one to grab that low hanging fruit eh

[KingKat]

Always one to grab that low hanging fruit eh

 

That's what... Oh Hell...

[Grant77]

I took it as 2006-2015

 

Still, you know that your example demonstrates nothing at all. To quote yourself, "Someone who professes to understand statistics as well as you do should understand that."

 

What the hell is the point of using 2015? We don't know what the pitchers have done yet.

 

One year and one sample doesn't definitively prove anything, but the fact that I find the same pattern in every year I look sure as hell does.

 

Let's look at it another way, every pitcher who has ever played in the modern era:

 

885 of 8303, or more than 4 out of every 39 pitchers, have had at least 150 major league starts. That number doesn't include any pitcher currently in the majors who will reach that mark and does include hundreds of position players and whatnot. It's a certainty that the number would higher, but by how much I don't know. Either way, it proves that your statement was wrong.

[Grant77]

I didn't say 5'10 either... I said 5'9 and under.

 

Harvey Haddix was 5'9 and got to 40 fWAR, 285 career starts. Had that spectacular 13 inning perfect game bid.

 

Marcus Stroman is listed as 5'8. What part of 5'8 and under don't you understand? You can't change the facts just to add players to your sample and make it look like you are right.

 

My grandpa was at that game by the way, tells me about it all of the time.

[Grant77]

Lahman has Stroman at 5'9 and so do other sources. He said "as short as Stroman."

 

Edit: Also, Grant, Fred Norman didn't get hurt or move to the bullpen. He was an effective starting pitcher through the age of 36.

 

Bluejays.com and baseball-reference both have him listed as 5'8. I'm not going to play these games with you.

 

We can argue over semantics with Fred Norman, but he missed large chunks of multiple seasons for one reason for another and never had a single season out of 16 where he didn't pitch in relief.

[Olerud363]

Since 1950 there have only been 39 pitchers 5'8" or shorter in the majors. Take any random 39 pitcher sample and how many would have "sustained success as a starter?"

 

Here's one 5'8" guy that started a good chunk of games: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/normafr01.shtml

 

You also have to add in some 5"9 guys maybe even a couple of 5'10" so Stroman is average for the group... compare him to the 39 as short or shorter, and add in the next 20-30 tallest or so... if you compare him to only guys as short or shorter he is a giant among those... I am sure you know that... who knows if Grant does.