Around Baseball 2015

[Spanky__99]

Yeah, we were discussing Shark.

 

I'Z DUN GOTS KUUNFUUZED SUN...

 

Yeah, I see that now.

[xposbrad]

I think it's terrible for them. That money might have been better spent on an Alex Gordon and maybe a Span.

 

They needed a nice top 3 rotation. Verlander/Sanchez/Zimmerman is quite a trio, then they can see how Norris progresses this year. Gordon alone is going to make most likely 17m+.

[Abomination]

I think 2.8 is pretty reasonable considering he's typically in the 3-3.5 range and is entering his age-30 season. Error bars are bigger on Happ, but I'm happier with a 3/36 commitment to him than a 5/110 to Zimmermann. There's also the lost first round pick.

 

Isn't the Tigers pick protected?

[Spanky__99]

I think 2.8 is pretty reasonable considering he's typically in the 3-3.5 range and is entering his age-30 season. Error bars are bigger on Happ, but I'm happier with a 3/36 commitment to him than a 5/110 to Zimmermann. There's also the lost first round pick.

 

Ditto.

[BTS]

Isn't the Tiger's pick protected?

 

I was talking about Toronto signing Zimmermann vs. Happ.

[xposbrad]

I think 2.8 is pretty reasonable considering he's typically in the 3-3.5 range and is entering his age-30 season. Error bars are bigger on Happ, but I'm happier with a 3/36 commitment to him than a 5/110 to Zimmermann. There's also the lost first round pick.

 

Happ takes a rotation spot. The better pitcher usually commands more money. I honestly see a higher chance Happ returns to his career numbers than Zimmerman declining by the switch to the AL. That being said, the better player is Zimmerman.

[dineke]

Happ takes a rotation spot. The better pitcher usually commands more money. I honestly see a higher chance Happ returns to his career numbers than Zimmerman declining by the switch to the AL. That being said, the better player is Zimmerman.

 

No one is arguing who the better pitcher is dude. Lol

[Spanky__99]

Isn't the Tigers pick protected?

 

If it is they'll end up giving up their 2nd, well unless they aren't finished. The Nats were getting the comp regardless, nice for them.

[Spanky__99]

I don't think it will even be close. Zimmerman will do just fine in Detroit. Happ is a #4 pitcher and he could easily go back to his career avg numbers. Zimmerman has been dominant the last 5 years, not just in 60 innings that Blue Jays fans are focusing Happ's numbers on.

 

Key word. I'll take the over on Zimmerman.

 

They needed a nice top 3 rotation. Verlander/Sanchez/Zimmerman is quite a trio, then they can see how Norris progresses this year. Gordon alone is going to make most likely 17m+.

 

Happ takes a rotation spot. The better pitcher usually commands more money. I honestly see a higher chance Happ returns to his career numbers than Zimmerman declining by the switch to the AL. That being said, the better player is Zimmerman.

 

Are you stoned, brah?

[xposbrad]

No one is arguing who the better pitcher is dude. Lol

 

I would still take Zimmerman @ 22m/yr any day over Happ @ 12m, and so would every other GM in mlb. I think it's a great deal for Detroit, they have him until 35.

[Spanky__99]

No one is arguing who the better pitcher is dude. Lol

 

Exactly, lol.

[xposbrad]

Are you stoned, brah?

 

Nah, my wife won't let me smoke anymore.

[Spanky__99]

I would still take Zimmerman @ 22m/yr any day over Happ @ 12m, and so would every other GM in mlb. I think it's a great deal for Detroit, they have him until 35.

 

Did Zimmermann want to come here?

[Spanky__99]

Nah, my wife won't let me smoke anymore.

 

Sheeeeeit!

[Frenchsoup]

I would still take Zimmerman @ 22m/yr any day over Happ @ 12m, and so would every other GM in mlb. I think it's a great deal for Detroit, they have him until 35.

 

Zimmerman is way more risky then Happ under that term. Not to mention he throws a ton of hard sliders. He won't live up to that contract.

[Abomination]

I would still take Zimmerman @ 22m/yr any day over Happ @ 12m, and so would every other GM in mlb. I think it's a great deal for Detroit, they have him until 35.

 

I'm not so sure. Zimmerman is basically being paid as an ace, and (imo) he's probably a #2 starter.

[xposbrad]

Sheeeeeit!

 

I want the blue jays to win more than most people on these forums. Remember, MLB screwed Montreal and I was a huge fan. It would give me great pleasure to see the World series played in Canada even if it isn't my home team. I want the Jays to sign the best player, not the best value player. Sometimes signing the better player means paying a bit more, but this team is built to win in 2016. Value players only go so far. Plus Zimmerman played for Washington, remember, that team we used to have. Would have loved to see us snag him from them.

[admin]

I would still take Zimmerman @ 22m/yr any day over Happ @ 12m, and so would every other GM in mlb. I think it's a great deal for Detroit, they have him until 35.

 

$22M is a bit too high imo. It's not bad, but how much more to get Price? There's a large gap in talent between the two compared to the the price difference. I'd rather give price $27M per than Zimmerman $22M. We're talking 3 WAR pitcher vs potential 6+ WAR pitcher.

[Spanky__99]

$22M is a bit too high imo. It's not bad, but how much more to get Price? There's a large gap in talent between the two compared to the the price difference. I'd rather give price $27M per than Zimmerman $22M. We're talking 3 WAR pitcher vs potential 6+ WAR pitcher.

 

Truth, yet Price was a wet dream.

[xposbrad]

With the rumors of the red Sox wanting to overpay I think price gets 28 to 30. Of course I'd take Price over Zimmerman but that gives us a 160m payroll. I think the happ signing might prevent a top of the rotation starter being signed.

[DerangedIdoit]

Zimmerman is way more risky then Happ under that term. Not to mention he throws a ton of hard sliders. He won't live up to that contract.

 

Exactly. We can boil it down to this $36m vs $110m

[Grant77]

Happ takes a rotation spot. The better pitcher usually commands more money. I honestly see a higher chance Happ returns to his career numbers than Zimmerman declining by the switch to the AL. That being said, the better player is Zimmerman.

 

He isn't exactly going to decline coming to the AL, but the league simply has better players and also the DH. Zimmermann's projected FIP is a pretty fair 3.8 and Happ's is 3.95, using numbers that are similar to what he did in Toronto.

[Spanky__99]

I want the blue jays to win more than most people on these forums. Remember, MLB screwed Montreal and I was a huge fan. It would give me great pleasure to see the World series played in Canada even if it isn't my home team. I want the Jays to sign the best player, not the best value player. Sometimes signing the better player means paying a bit more, but this team is built to win in 2016. Value players only go so far. Plus Zimmerman played for Washington, remember, that team we used to have. Would have loved to see us snag him from them.

 

This is a bad way to look at this man, well, unless you're on your death bed, I followed the Expos too, but still rooted for the Bucs, anyhow tossing money around foolishly is an organizations death, I'll gladly take winning with a sustainable budget over, one and done and crippling an orgs future for 1 kick at the can, this past post-season goes to show you the best team, doesn't always win.

 

I'd rather watch the Jays contend year in and out, getting multiple cracks at a WS title, I don't get why people can't see this, that would be my hope going forward for the Jays, f***, why can't they win this season? I see a strong contending team to take the East again, get in and dance bro?!

[BigCecil]

I would still take Zimmerman @ 22m/yr any day over Happ @ 12m, and so would every other GM in mlb. I think it's a great deal for Detroit, they have him until 35.

 

Its not a "great deal". Its a lot for a #2, but its a free market and its off the rails. Price has to get 28 to 30 per and I think if you are going to pay that kind of money Price is better value/win.

 

I'm not complaining about the Happ signing. I think its fine. But did any of us ever imagine when he left for Saunders he would come back to us for 3/36? Really brings home just how valuable young, effective and cheap arms under control are to an org.

[Laika]

Zimmermann's fair 5 year contract under the following assumptions...

 

- $8M $/WAR

- 8% inflation in $/WAR

- Steamer is correct for 2016

- He declines in the standard fashion

 

2.8 * 8 = 22.4

2.3 * 8.64 = 19.87

1.8 * 9.33 = 16.79

1.3 * 10.08 = 13.10

0.8 * 10.88 = 8.70

+

= $80.86MM

 

Of course, Steamer could be wrong. Adding 0.5 WAR to each year makes the total projected value $104.36M, which is essentially the contract.

 

Also, Steamer could basically be correct but the Tigers are buying wins at a rate that is higher than $8M/WAR.

 

2.8 * 10 = 28

2.3 * 10.8 = 24.84

1.8 * 11.66 = 20.99

1.3 * 12.59 = 16.37

0.8 * 13.60 = 10.88

+

= $101.08

[L54]

I want the blue jays to win more than most people on these forums. Remember, MLB screwed Montreal and I was a huge fan. It would give me great pleasure to see the World series played in Canada even if it isn't my home team. I want the Jays to sign the best player, not the best value player. Sometimes signing the better player means paying a bit more, but this team is built to win in 2016. Value players only go so far. Plus Zimmerman played for Washington, remember, that team we used to have. Would have loved to see us snag him from them.

 

The ironic part here even though you probably don't realize it is that signing the best players may increase the Jays odds in the short term but significantly dampers their long term outlook. I don't think you want to see the Blue Jays win anymore than others here, it's that most people realize that you need multiple chances to win a World Series. Being "built to win" in 2016 is not an excuse to spend like a drunken sailor this offseason.

[glory]

The ironic part here even though you probably don't realize it is that signing the best players may increase the Jays odds in the short term but significantly dampers their long term outlook. I don't think you want to see the Blue Jays win anymore than others here, it's that most people realize that you need multiple chances to win a World Series. Being "built to win" in 2016 is not an excuse to spend like a drunken sailor this offseason.

 

Exactly. No one will care about Bautista's bat flip HR in 2019 if they team hadn't made the playoffs in 2016-18. If you build a sustainable winner, then the more chances you have at winning it. AA created a one year window. That's about the worst thing you could possibly do in baseball. Doubling down on that philosophy would have sunk this team long-term.

[BigCecil]

Exactly. No one will care about Bautista's bat flip HR in 2019 if they team hadn't made the playoffs in 2016-18. If you build a sustainable winner, then the more chances you have at winning it. AA created a one year window. That's about the worst thing you could possibly do in baseball. Doubling down on that philosophy would have sunk this team long-term.

 

Agree. Having said that the org made a calculated gamble in 2015 and the Roger's market for the Jays is at a fever pitch we haven't seen in over 20 yrs. Its kind of a shame the low dollar affects their payroll flexibility so much.

 

I'm still pleasantly shocked to go to my kids baseball and see 6,7 and 8 yr olds (and their parents) in Calgary as into baseball and the Jays as they are right now. Obviously the challenge is going to be sustaining and building on it 2017 out. I think Shapiro is the right guy to make a sustainable org happen. Their approach this off season thus far works for me.

[Spanky__99]

Exactly. No one will care about Bautista's bat flip HR in 2019 if they team hadn't made the playoffs in 2016-18. If you build a sustainable winner, then the more chances you have at winning it. AA created a two year window. That's about the worst thing you could possibly do in baseball. Doubling down on that philosophy would have sunk this team long-term.

 

ftfy

[CJ-Freeway]

I want the blue jays to win more than most people on these forums. Remember, MLB screwed Montreal and I was a huge fan. It would give me great pleasure to see the World series played in Canada even if it isn't my home team. I want the Jays to sign the best player, not the best value player. Sometimes signing the better player means paying a bit more, but this team is built to win in 2016. Value players only go so far. Plus Zimmerman played for Washington, remember, that team we used to have. Would have loved to see us snag him from them.

 

I agree with you, brother! I'm in the same boat. The WS needs to return to our country!! 2016 is a legit shot to do exactly that.