John Sickels: Blue Jays top-20 prospects

[Benhameen]

Long time reader, first time poster. Just came to comment about Sanchez. What I saw of him, I was very impressed. His movement on a 98/99 Mph fastball is insane. I get that he has a higher walk rate in the minors than would be appealing but is there any chance that it has to do with his movement? There's an obvious difference in umpire ability in the majors and minors. I think that MLB quality umpires will have a higher skill level in picking up the movement and recognizing it's in the strike zone. Plus, Russell Martin's framing will also help him out. I don't think I've ever seen as much movement on an upper 90's fastball as Sanchez. He also seems to be able to control it much better than Drabek. You can't compare the two. I think he's going to do much better in this environment than people on here would suggest.

[John_Havok]

Long time reader, first time poster. Just came to comment about Sanchez. What I saw of him, I was very impressed. His movement on a 98/99 Mph fastball is insane. I get that he has a higher walk rate in the minors than would be appealing but is there any chance that it has to do with his movement? There's an obvious difference in umpire ability in the majors and minors. I think that MLB quality umpires will have a higher skill level in picking up the movement and recognizing it's in the strike zone. Plus, Russell Martin's framing will also help him out. I don't think I've ever seen as much movement on an upper 90's fastball as Sanchez. He also seems to be able to control it much better than Drabek. You can't compare the two. I think he's going to do much better in this environment than people on here would suggest.

 

Welcome to the forum.

 

First, while you raise certain points that make sense about explaining Sanchez's highish walk rate in the minors, the main reason is still lack of command. Yes, his massive amount of movement probably plays a role, but improved framing that huge amount of movement won't improve a pitchers walk rate from bad to good, only from bad to not quite as bad.

[GD]

Who were Sanchez's minor league catchers? There are some very good ones (Jimenez, Murphy)

[z3r0s]

Who were Sanchez's minor league catchers? There are some very good ones (Jimenez, Murphy)

 

But who knows if Jimenez and Murphy are good framers?

[GD]

But who knows if Jimenez and Murphy are good framers?

 

They both have rather good reputations

[King]

Who were Sanchez's minor league catchers? There are some very good ones (Jimenez, Murphy)

 

Derrick Chung caught him in Dunedin and New Hampshire. Now I don't know myself for sure, but I remember a few pimping him on here for being a very good catcher.

[Sorrow]

Derrick Chung caught him in Dunedin and New Hampshire. Now I don't know myself for sure, but I remember a few pimping him on here for being a very good catcher.

 

Chung and Jiminez are both very reputable pitch framers.

[Key22]

A walk rate of 5 per 9 is fine when you only give up 4 hits. The key is to take WHIP - Walks plus hits. You can live with a guy who walks 5 and gives up 5 hits - that's better than a guy who walks 3 but gives up 7 hits as all hits are not singles but all walks are equal to a single.

 

The kid is still young but he sure as hell didn't look like a Kelvin Escobar who also had electric stuff but appeared not to know where the ball was going. Sanchez made an adjustment in the minors apparently came up here and gave up 14 hits in 33 innings and walked 9 and struck out 27 - a 0.697 WHIP and while it is a very small sample size that is still utterly ridiculous un-hittable ELITE numbers.

 

Remember also that he pitched 24 games - it's not like he came in and walked 6 like Kyle Drabek. It means that in 24 games he pretty much had his command and control each and every time out. Every pitcher is going to stink it up but Sanchez did the job more often than not 24 times and he did it in the AL East with a crappy defensive team. Further 5 out of the 9 walks came against Baltimore. He was also making an adjustment from starter to the pen which means less days rest. In games he had 3 days of rest or more he had 13 K's against 2 walks in 13.2 innings.

 

I just didn't see a guy on the mound that looked like a guy struggling with command or control issues. He hit the glove and batters were looking foolish out there. When I saw him spring he looked looked pretty dreadful - complete polar opposite from Spring to August. Sanchez hasn't even filled out - he looks like a 15 year old string bean out there. With MB and Russel Martin and another year on frame bloody hell. He deserves a long long look in spring training - doesn't work you got Estrada as a back-up.

[AdamGreenwood]

Actually, Walks are worth much less than singles which further supports your point.

[glory]

As long as hitters are making weak contact and putting the ball on the ground, then Sanchez shouldn't be terrible, but his walk rate has to improve. If he's still walking 5 per 9 and then depending on a defense with Jose Reyes in it to bail him out, then he's going to be a burden out there.

[flafson]

Goins and Donaldson can bail anyone.

[Benhameen]

Yeah, I didn't really take a good look at his minor league walk rate. It's ugly. I just remember reading that it wasn't good and thought major league factors could improve it.

Just another (potentially stupid) question. Couldn't two pitchers have the same WHIP yet one could be much more effective? For example, one pitcher could give up on average a home run and walk an inning, giving him a WHIP of 2. Another pitcher could average a single and a walk per inning, giving him a WHIP of 2 as well. So an extreme ground ball pitcher who may be great at limiting runs may be viewed as comparable to an extreme fly ball who's more likely to give up runs. Wouldn't a better stat be something like "total bases given up per inning"? It would seem to do a better job of evaluating the effectiveness of a pitcher. Is there a reason why they stick with WHIP?

[GD]

Yeah, I didn't really take a good look at his minor league walk rate. It's ugly. I just remember reading that it wasn't good and thought major league factors could improve it.

Just another (potentially stupid) question. Couldn't two pitchers have the same WHIP yet one could be much more effective? For example, one pitcher could give up on average a home run and walk an inning, giving him a WHIP of 2. Another pitcher could average a single and a walk per inning, giving him a WHIP of 2 as well. So an extreme ground ball pitcher who may be great at limiting runs may be viewed as comparable to an extreme fly ball who's more likely to give up runs. Wouldn't a better stat be something like "total bases given up per inning"? It would seem to do a better job of evaluating the effectiveness of a pitcher. Is there a reason why they stick with WHIP?

 

Yeah, WHIP's not great.

[Deadpool]

Yeah, WHIP's not great.

 

WHIP tells you some stuff, it's probably a middle of the road stat... Tells you more than WINZ and SAVEZ for sure...

[Atothe]

WHIP tells you some stuff, it's probably a middle of the road stat... Tells you more than WINZ and SAVEZ for sure...

 

I'm telling Mike Wilner on you

[Guest]

When is Hoffman expected to be back on the mound again?

[Orgfiller]

When is Hoffman expected to be back on the mound again?

 

Probably sometime, since he's a pitcher possibly never, but most likely sometime.

 

/Heyman impretion

[GD]

Probably sometime, since he's a pitcher possibly never, but most likely sometime.

 

/Heyman impretion

 

Was part of the impression to be as illiterate as him?

[Orgfiller]

Was part of the impression to be as illiterate as him?

 

Yes, although I capitalized his name and I feel bad.

[KingKat]

When is Hoffman expected to be back on the mound again?

 

Late 2015 at the earliest.

[ElNik2013]

When is Hoffman expected to be back on the mound again?

 

 

 

He underwent TJS in mid May 2014 so assuming the Blue Jays will be careful with him, mid June to early July might be a good guess.

[Key22]

Yeah, I didn't really take a good look at his minor league walk rate. It's ugly. I just remember reading that it wasn't good and thought major league factors could improve it.

Just another (potentially stupid) question. Couldn't two pitchers have the same WHIP yet one could be much more effective? For example, one pitcher could give up on average a home run and walk an inning, giving him a WHIP of 2. Another pitcher could average a single and a walk per inning, giving him a WHIP of 2 as well. So an extreme ground ball pitcher who may be great at limiting runs may be viewed as comparable to an extreme fly ball who's more likely to give up runs. Wouldn't a better stat be something like "total bases given up per inning"? It would seem to do a better job of evaluating the effectiveness of a pitcher. Is there a reason why they stick with WHIP?

 

You can look at the numbers but WHIP is generally the one that tells you right away how many people are getting on base against the guy. There is a very good correlation between ow WHIP and the best pitchers in the game. You can then look at k/BB ratio and HR/9 and yes even ERA. The Guy with the 1.1 WHIP or below and the sub 3 ERA every year you can bet is in the running for CY Young. The guy with the 1.5 WHIP and the ERA of 4+ isn't. As much as ERA and WHIP get blasted the combination of those two is usually a pretty sound indicator of quality. See Mariano Rivera's WHIP compared to every other closer as an example.

 

Sanchez in MLB level gave up few walks - 2.5/9 and few hits 3.8/9 and few home runs 0.3/9 and a 1.09 ERA. So he didn't give up runs, he didn't give up hits, of the few hits he allowed he didn't get clubbed for home runs.

 

As for minor league stats look at other pitchers at age 21-23 and see their walk rates. Randy Johnson, Roy Halladay Clayton Kershaw. Heck Nolan Ryan from the age of 21-31 walked 5 to 6.9 per 9 innings EVERY year. He led the league in walks 8 (EIGHT) times. He only mustered a career 2.04 K-BB ratio. Only 3 seasons did he manage a slightly better than 3-1 K/BB ratio. He was worth a career 83 WAR.

 

I want Sanchez and his 99MPH big movement fastball in he rotation until he proves he can't do it. His relief debut should earn him the "his job to lose" title.

[Ambassador Ch0n]

Damn. I thought he'd get on the mound for 2014. So much for that.

 

posted January 2nd 2015

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

So based on these assessments on a year to year bases! Overall what is the success rates of A's vs B's by team in succeeding in the majors? And league rates of success vs teams? Would this not point to success of ones teams overall development of players? Where's a stats geek when you need one? Lol

[GD]

So based on these assessments on a year to year bases! Overall what is the success rates of A's vs B's by team in succeeding in the majors? And league rates of success vs teams? Would this not point to success of ones teams overall development of players? Where's a stats geek when you need one? Lol

 

I have absolutely no idea what you're asking for

 

Before focusing on this, focusing on English might be a start

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Based on Sickels ratings! Or whatever scribe you wish I guess. Who has the best rate of evaluating future success in the majors?

 

A rated players success rate of being above replacement level

B rated player same as above

By year

By team

By league

Comparisons

Are we above or below our competition at developing players!

Plus it would show which evaluator is best at evaluating the milb players would it not?

[L54]

Based on Sickels ratings! Or whatever scribe you wish I guess. Who has the best rate of evaluating future success in the majors?

 

A rated players success rate of being above replacement level

B rated player same as above

By year

By team

By league

Comparisons

Are we above or below our competition at developing players!

Plus it would show which evaluator is best at evaluating the milb players would it not?

 

It's very hard to quantify the success rates of these players through a ranking system because the rankings are subjective.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

It's very hard to quantify the success rates of these players through a ranking system because the rankings are subjective.

 

Ok, even for our stats geeks on here! Say it ain't so. But thanks!

[TheHurl]

=BigBounceyBlueBalls;492150]Based on Sickels ratings! Or whatever scribe you wish I guess. Who has the best rate of evaluating future success in the majors?

 

A rated players success rate of being above replacement level

B rated player same as above

By year

By team

By league

Comparisons

Are we above or below our competition at developing players!

Plus it would show which evaluator is best at evaluating the milb players would it not?

 

Never been done for Sickels as far as I know...but here is something from the BA top 100. From there you can get an idea of how the lower the ranking the lower the chance of success.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6/3/4386214/how-well-does-the-baseball-america-prospect-top-100-estimate-the-top

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Found it a interesting read, unless a player produces elite stats the window to moving on from a player is as little as 3-4 years if you can't live with non elite 2 War or less players! Did I get that right?