GD Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Just to illustrate how advanced stats are not the be all end all, said player in my scenario was Julio Tehran of the Braves. Alot of posters on the Braves site thought he was going to be a bust after that repeat year in AAA and his early MLB numbers. People talk a ton about Sanchez' K-rate/ Swingstrike % being low, but he almost exclusively throws fastballs right now. He has better pure stuff than Julio, who is a pretty fine pitcher for the Braves. Im in the camp of holding on to Sanchez to see if he can learn to "pitch" with his amazing stuff. Julio Teheran has a career 102 xFIP-
Maahfaace Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 I think the frustrating thing with Sanchez is that what you describe above was basically his scouting report from day one. So even though he's still certainly young, the lack of progress is concerning. That being said pitcher are a peculiar breed. Cliff Lee was nearly 30 when he finally put it together. Nothing is set in stone with Sanchez but short term his biggest value to the Jays seems to be as a trade chip (with the caveat that we don't actually know what anyone would actually pay for Sanchez at this point.) Furthermore, I think overall skepticism is warranted. You can honestly say that for 98% of pitching prospects. My thoughts are you really can't learn stuff, you can learn to pitch though.
L54 Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 I think the frustrating thing with Sanchez is that what you describe above was basically his scouting report from day one. So even though he's still certainly young, the lack of progress is concerning. That being said pitcher are a peculiar breed. Cliff Lee was nearly 30 when he finally put it together. Nothing is set in stone with Sanchez but short term his biggest value to the Jays seems to be as a trade chip (with the caveat that we don't actually know what anyone would actually pay for Sanchez at this point.) Furthermore, I think overall skepticism is warranted. Don't know how to thank on my phone, so here it is. Good post.
Maahfaace Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Julio Teheran has a career 102 xFIP- not sure where you got that from, his MLB career xFIP is 3.81
Maahfaace Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 not sure where you got that from, his MLB career xFIP is 3.81 oops thought i read 1.02
Boxcar Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Just to illustrate how advanced stats are not the be all end all, said player in my scenario was Julio Tehran of the Braves. Alot of posters on the Braves site thought he was going to be a bust after that repeat year in AAA and his early MLB numbers. People talk a ton about Sanchez' K-rate/ Swingstrike % being low, but he almost exclusively throws fastballs right now. He has better pure stuff than Julio, who is a pretty fine pitcher for the Braves. Im in the camp of holding on to Sanchez to see if he can learn to "pitch" with his amazing stuff. I'd gladly deal Julio Teheran+ for a Hamels type of pitcher.
Maahfaace Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Julio Teheran has a career 102 xFIP- his xFIP- from the last 2 years is 97, which is pretty solid
jaysblue Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 He'll need command. Nobody wants to run Carlos Silva out there. Carlos Silva only issued 9 walks in 188 IP during the 2005 season. And two of those were IBB. So he only walked 7 guys lol.
Maahfaace Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 I'd gladly deal Julio Teheran+ for a Hamels type of pitcher. I wouldnt deal Tehran for 1 year of Zobrist, nor would I with Sanchez. IF the jays were in the mix for Hamels, and Sanchez was part of the package, that would be a different story
Spanky99 Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 I'd gladly deal Julio Teheran+ for a Hamels type of pitcher. Agreed, but this moved over to Zobrist dumn dumn.
GD Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 his xFIP- from the last 2 years is 97, which is pretty solid He's about a league average pitcher, not really helping your case
Spanky99 Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 I wouldnt deal Tehran for 1 year of Zobrist, nor would I with Sanchez. IF the jays were in the mix for Hamels, and Sanchez was part of the package, that would be a different story That's just crazy talk, I'd move Sanchez for Zobrist in a NY minute.
Boxcar Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 He's about a league average pitcher, not really helping your case Yeah i don't really get people's fascination with Teheran Seems like he has the air of being something he's not. Hes an OK flyball machine who allows too much contact for that type of pitcher.
Maahfaace Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 He's about a league average pitcher, not really helping your case But it is, watch him pitch, hes better than league average by quite a bit. Kid knows how to set hitters up and induce weak contact
Gorlak Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 If Sanchez starts I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 3 WAR over 150 innings.
Maahfaace Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Not a very good example because Teheran had dominated the lower levels previously. Sanchez has never dominated any level. their numbers (xFIP) are very similar in low ball, with Sanchez having a superior K% (excluding his dominant year in AAA prior to his flop year)
BTS Community Moderator Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 If Sanchez starts I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 3 WAR over 150 innings. This would be shocking.
BTS Community Moderator Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Carlos Silva only issued 9 walks in 188 IP during the 2005 season. And two of those were IBB. So he only walked 7 guys lol. Yeah I know. For some reason I was thinking he was like a 7/4 K/BB GB guy.
Maahfaace Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 This would be shocking. Yes it would, but I could see a similar line to Drew's first year before he got hurt, 1.5-2 WAR in 150 innings
Gorlak Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 This would be shocking. 2 would be more likely, but he could do 3.
BTS Community Moderator Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 2 would be more likely, but he could do 3. 0 would be most likely
Gorlak Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 0 would be most likely I disagree, Doubt the front office would look to use him in the pen if they thought he couldn't get out MLB hitters.
Caper Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 This would be shocking. Last year when he came up, you basically said he was going to get killed. It didn't happen.
BTS Community Moderator Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 I disagree, Doubt the front office would look to use him in the pen if they thought he couldn't get out MLB hitters. This front office has a long history of giving playing time to replacement-level talent. I do think he has a chance to be an effective reliever though. It's just really difficult to picture him contributing as a starter next year.
jaysblue Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 0 would be most likely Steamer projects him for -0.3 WAR next season. Also, they project him to appear in 55 games, 20 of them starts lol.
Caper Verified Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Anyways. Back to 2nd basemen. Jays don't need one. They got Ryan Goins. Saves runs with his glove..... ,don't make many with his bat.
saskjayfan Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 That's just crazy talk, I'd move Sanchez for Zobrist in a NY minute. i like war about as much as bill James. Zobrist is 34 and no one can anticipate his defence and offence could be worse next year. No one can anticipate Sanchez' statistics getting better and he's 22. One year of zobrist for 6 of Sanchez is utter lunacy.
GD Old-Timey Member Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 i like war about as much as bill James. Telling
Deadpool Old-Timey Member Posted December 24, 2014 Posted December 24, 2014 This board gets a little strange this time of year. Decent posters go full troll, trolls go full retard, full retards go BigBouncyBlueBalls,BigBouncyBlueBalls go straight to the looney bin. http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/27231544.jpg (I read the whole thread and had literally nothing else to contribute... GO ME!)
RealAccountant Old-Timey Member Posted December 24, 2014 Posted December 24, 2014 Sanchez did a nice job out of the pen Why ruin a good thing is what I don't understand. Zobrist? It would be nice. However this team needs a strong relief core to compete.no attempt was even made at Scott downs
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