Toritani signing?

[Laika]

I'm really surprised we're even negotiating with Boras, this is a good thing.

 

Yeah that might be the best news out of all this. A window into the FO that sheds some light on Beeston's current role (I'm assuming him and Cito just play connect 4 all day).

[TheHurl]

I'm really surprised we're even negotiating with Boras, this is a good thing.

 

I tried to tell everyone that this wasn't the Jays refusing. Boras told the Jays as long as Beest is involved he would not be dealing with them.

 

Here is the stat line from that NOM projections site. Don't know much about the methodology. Also this would have been his projection leading into last season not this season.

 

PA AB R H 1B 2B 3B HR SB CS BB IBB HBP SO SH SF GDP BABIP BB% K% ISO

600 498 59 136 99 26 7 5 12 6 63 1 3 71 1 4 12 0.307 10.54% 11.91% 0.107

 

AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA

0.273 0.356 0.381 0.737 0.312

[Sammy225]

Yeah that might be the best news out of all this. A window into the FO that sheds some light on Beeston's current role (I'm assuming him and Cito just play connect 4 all day).

 

Is there enough room in Citos broom closet?

[wardhenke1]

You can always tell by the username. This stunnerd is trapped in the past with those other nostalgia named imbeciles. Why don't they sign Alomar!? I remember him being a really good 2B!

 

You really need to check with your other WAR friends genius. Even JFAS has admitted that according to modern statistical analysis, this trade should never have happened. Ref. JFAS below:

 

"Carter+Alomar

1989: 5.6 WAR

1990: 1.0 WAR (-2.0 from Carter)

Trade

1991: 8.9 WAR

1992: 9.0 WAR

1993: 7.7 WAR

 

Fernandez+McGriff

1989: 10.0 WAR

1990: 10.4 WAR

Trade

1991: 6.1 WAR

1992: 7.0 WAR

1993: 7.6 WAR

 

Looks like a pretty bad trade at the time. Obviously hindsight worked out. "

 

Yet I'm the stunnerd? You can't even keep up with the rest of your sheeple/shepherd. Oy.

 

BTW since when did advocating strongly for Lowrie become a badge of being stuck in the past? Incredible imbecility. Honestly, you just couldn't make it up.

[Olerud363]

Maybe they post on this board

 

Cito = Gruber92 and/or oldskool (or whatever he has become)

Beeston = Moogy (who has been missing lately??)

[Boxcar]

Lol,based on what? He's a weak slap hitting all glove with a noodle arm infielder. He can't play short or third with much efficiency. He may draw a lot of pitches per AB, but that's it. Goins would produce a higher WAR in the same amount of playing time guaranteed, and we don't have to pay him $3.3mil per for three years. This would be a joke of a signing, as essentially he would clone Kawasaki. Actually, I think Kawasaki has a better arm from the video I had seen, but not a better glove.

 

Lol another one.

[Dr. Dinger]

I tried to tell everyone that this wasn't the Jays refusing. Boras told the Jays as long as Beest is involved he would not be dealing with them.

 

Here is the stat line from that NOM projections site. Don't know much about the methodology. Also this would have been his projection leading into last season not this season.

 

PA AB R H 1B 2B 3B HR SB CS BB IBB HBP SO SH SF GDP BABIP BB% K% ISO

600 498 59 136 99 26 7 5 12 6 63 1 3 71 1 4 12 0.307 10.54% 11.91% 0.107

 

AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA

0.273 0.356 0.381 0.737 0.312

 

I'd take that line all day long, however I suspect there's a pretty good chance he'll get the bat knocked out of his hands by MLB fastballs (a la Muni).

[TheHurl]

You really need to check with your other WAR friends genius. Even JFAS has admitted that according to modern statistical analysis, this trade should never have happened. Ref. JFAS below:

 

"Carter+Alomar

1989: 5.6 WAR

1990: 1.0 WAR (-2.0 from Carter)

Trade

1991: 8.9 WAR

1992: 9.0 WAR

1993: 7.7 WAR

 

Fernandez+McGriff

1989: 10.0 WAR

1990: 10.4 WAR

Trade

1991: 6.1 WAR

1992: 7.0 WAR

1993: 7.6 WAR

 

Looks like a pretty bad trade at the time. Obviously hindsight worked out. "

 

Yet I'm the stunnerd? You can't even keep up with the rest of your sheeple/shepherd. Oy.

 

BTW since when did advocating strongly for Lowrie become a badge of being stuck in the past? Honestly, you just couldn't make it up.

 

I've always been of the belief that the Jays were a playoff team with or without that trade. Sometimes it's just timing in a trade that makes it look good.

[Boxcar]

You really need to check with your other WAR friends genius. Even JFAS has admitted that according to modern statistical analysis, this trade should never have happened. Ref. JFAS below:

 

"Carter+Alomar

1989: 5.6 WAR

1990: 1.0 WAR (-2.0 from Carter)

Trade

1991: 8.9 WAR

1992: 9.0 WAR

1993: 7.7 WAR

 

Fernandez+McGriff

1989: 10.0 WAR

1990: 10.4 WAR

Trade

1991: 6.1 WAR

1992: 7.0 WAR

1993: 7.6 WAR

 

Looks like a pretty bad trade at the time. Obviously hindsight worked out. "

 

Yet I'm the stunnerd? You can't even keep up with the rest of your sheeple/shepherd. Oy.

 

BTW since when did advocating strongly for Lowrie become a badge of being stuck in the past? Incredible imbecility. Honestly, you just couldn't make it up.

 

Carter was a pretty bad player, though there's a good chance this particular trade's impact is severely overrated. What's a WAR friend? I want one.

[TheHurl]

(a la Muni).

 

he never posted projections for Muni. Would have been interesting to see. He does show how his projections would have went for some other past players. Iguchi is the the only one he shows which the slash line was way over.

[Laika]

I'd take that line all day long, however I suspect there's a pretty good chance he'll get the bat knocked out of his hands by MLB fastballs (a la Muni).

 

He's stung it a bit more than Mune in Japan. Mune was .080 ISO there and Toritani has been .130.

 

The bar is so low at 2B in Toronto that even if he's just Mune (Steamer -> .240/.306/.310) with "+1" bonuses across the board (.250/.320/.340; so basically, Yunel Escobar), that could be a solid 1-2 win improvement depending largely on the defense.

 

That's essentially 2013 Dustin Ackley who would've been about a 1.5 win player if the M's didn't move him to CF where he bled some runs.

[Olerud363]

You really need to check with your other WAR friends genius. Even JFAS has admitted that according to modern statistical analysis, this trade should never have happened. Ref. JFAS below:

 

"Carter+Alomar

1989: 5.6 WAR

1990: 1.0 WAR (-2.0 from Carter)

Trade

1991: 8.9 WAR

1992: 9.0 WAR

1993: 7.7 WAR

 

Fernandez+McGriff

1989: 10.0 WAR

1990: 10.4 WAR

Trade

1991: 6.1 WAR

1992: 7.0 WAR

1993: 7.6 WAR

 

Looks like a pretty bad trade at the time. Obviously hindsight worked out. "

 

Yet I'm the stunnerd? You can't even keep up with the rest of your sheeple/shepherd. Oy.

 

It was an incredibly risky trade and would not happen in today's environment.

 

I will probably be fried for this... but it actually didn't gain the blue jays much at all.

 

They won the division by 7, 4 and 5 games or so those years. The transaction gave them about 1.5 wins a year. Wins they didn't need to win the east.

 

If you did that type of trade 10 times you would be burnt 10 times.

 

If you did it 100 times you would win (by a bit) twice. (I mean approximately, I don't know exactly what the numbers are).

 

Alomar and Carter hit important homeruns in the post season.

 

If we could do the experiment over 20 times it would be interesting. But wait a minute we have... presumably the same type of thinking that was applied to the Alomar/Carter trade was applied over and over again by the Beest (not directly by him, but indirectly by who he chose to hire for manager/gm/scouts)...

 

And we didn't win one thing after 1993.

[blurnandez]

This would be an interesting signing and I'm curious how it will play out. The fact that multiple teams are interested means that he must still have a good amount of value.

 

My hazy, amateur, small sample size scouting report: I saw Toritani play two games a few years ago. I specifically remember him because he was clearly one of the elite guys on the field and seemed to be the Tigers' gamechanger. He hit a bomb to right-center the first game I saw, and then ripped a big double in the gap. He also made a couple of impressive, rangey plays deep in the hole and got the outs with strong throws. Good range, nice arm, decent pop, hustle / gamer type.

 

This was when he was about 29 or so I believe, so his skills may have diminished. But just thought I'd throw in a little bit of firsthand info.

[KingKat]

Can someone explain to me what signing Toritani has to do with WAR? He doesn't evan have a WAR calculation because he's not in the MLB and there's probably not enough defensive data from Japan to construct an equivalent for the NBP. Why has WARDHENKE turned this into a referendum on WAR? It's not even remotely relevant to the discussion. All we have to go on is some scouting reports and strictly offensive Japanese stats. Everyone's going on the same information here. Shouldn't the debate be on the value of the information we do have not the value of information we couldn't possibly obtain? Is it just WARDHENKE noticing that some of the people arguing for Toritani also believe in WAR and therefore he should just attack WAR for the hell of it? I really don't get it. The value of WAR isn't really relevant to this particular debate. Edited December 12, 2014 by KingKat

[Laika]

This would be an interesting signing and I'm curious how it will play out. The fact that multiple teams are interested means that he must still have a good amount of value.

 

My hazy, amateur, small sample size scouting report: I saw Toritani play two games a few years ago. I specifically remember him because he was clearly one of the elite guys on the field and seemed to be the Tigers' gamechanger. He hit a bomb to right-center the first game I saw, and then ripped a big double in the gap. He also made a couple of impressive, rangey plays deep in the hole and got the outs with strong throws. Good range, nice arm, decent pop, hustle / gamer type.

 

This was when he was about 29 or so I believe, so his skills may have diminished. But just thought I'd throw in a little bit of firsthand info.

 

neat, thanks.

[KingKat]

This would be an interesting signing and I'm curious how it will play out. The fact that multiple teams are interested means that he must still have a good amount of value.

 

My hazy, amateur, small sample size scouting report: I saw Toritani play two games a few years ago. I specifically remember him because he was clearly one of the elite guys on the field and seemed to be the Tigers' gamechanger. He hit a bomb to right-center the first game I saw, and then ripped a big double in the gap. He also made a couple of impressive, rangey plays deep in the hole and got the outs with strong throws. Good range, nice arm, decent pop, hustle / gamer type.

 

This was when he was about 29 or so I believe, so his skills may have diminished. But just thought I'd throw in a little bit of firsthand info.

 

Whoah... You're back. Nice to see you!

[Laika]

Can someone explain to me what signing Toritani has to do with WAR?....

 

....WARDHENKE turned this into a referendum on WAR..... It's not even relevant to the discussion. The value of WAR isn't really relevant to this particular debate.

 

There, you told yourself.

[NorthOf49]

This would be an interesting signing and I'm curious how it will play out. The fact that multiple teams are interested means that he must still have a good amount of value.

 

My hazy, amateur, small sample size scouting report: I saw Toritani play two games a few years ago. I specifically remember him because he was clearly one of the elite guys on the field and seemed to be the Tigers' gamechanger. He hit a bomb to right-center the first game I saw, and then ripped a big double in the gap. He also made a couple of impressive, rangey plays deep in the hole and got the outs with strong throws. Good range, nice arm, decent pop, hustle / gamer type.

 

This was when he was about 29 or so I believe, so his skills may have diminished. But just thought I'd throw in a little bit of firsthand info.

Blurnandez!

[Olerud363]

Can someone explain to me what signing Toritani has to do with WAR? He doesn't evan have a WAR calculation because he's not in the MLB and there's probably not enough defensive data from Japan to construct an equivalent for the NBP. Why has WARDHENKE turned this into a referendum on WAR? It's not even remotely relevant to the discussion. All we have to go on is some scouting reports and strictly offensive Japanese stats. Everyone's going on the same information here. Shouldn't the debate be on the value of the information we do have not the value of information we couldn't possibly obtain? Is it just WARDHENKE noticing that some of the people arguing for Toritani also believe in WAR and therefore he should just attack WAR for the hell of it? I really don't get it. The value of WAR isn't really relevant to this particular debate.

 

Gruber - New Japanese guy is exactly the same as old Japanese guy (Kawasaki) who needs that crap when we can play Ryan Goins??

 

Me - Ryan Goins turned out to have negative WAR

 

WardHenke - Bob Ryan says WAR is a piece of crap.

 

I'm shortening and paraphrasing for brevity... but that is pretty much how it went.

[wardhenke1]

Can someone explain to me what signing Toritani has to do with WAR? He doesn't evan have a WAR calculation because he's not in the MLB and there's probably not enough defensive data from Japan to construct an equivalent for the NBP. Why has WARDHENKE turned this into a referendum on WAR? It's not even remotely relevant to the discussion. All we have to go on is some scouting reports and strictly offensive Japanese stats. Everyone's going on the same information here. Shouldn't the debate be on the value of the information we do have not the value of information we couldn't possibly obtain? Is it just WARDHENKE noticing that some of the people arguing for Toritani also believe in WAR and therefore he should just attack WAR for the hell of it? I really don't get it. The value of WAR isn't really relevant to this particular debate.

 

I didn't turn this into a debate about WAR. It was referenced by others and I responded. This whole thread should have been about the merits of signing this Japanese player vs. a more proven major leaguer. I advocated signing Lowrie or an equivalent. This was considered heresy/blasphemy and I was and am being castigated and burned at the stake for it. I couldn't give a s***. My viewpoint is valid and remains valid.

[KingKat]

I didn't turn this into a debate about WAR. It was referenced by others and I responded. This whole thread should have been about the merits of signing this Japanese player vs. a more proven major leaguer. I advocated signing Lowrie or an equivalent. This was considered heresy/blasphemy and I was and am being burned at the stake for it. I couldn't give a s***. My viewpoint is valid and remains valid.

 

Did anyone actually argue with you that Lowrie isn't better than the Japanese guy? I don't think anyone actually did. I think where you lose people is when you seem to get really mad at the idea that the team would be built differently from how you would build it. The guy probably has an o.k. stick. If the Jays evalute his defense to be good and they are correct in that evaluation this could still be a good signing even if it's not Lowrie. Wouldn't you agree with that?

[Laika]

I didn't turn this into a debate about WAR. It was referenced by others and I responded. This whole thread should have been about the merits of signing this Japanese player vs. a more proven major leaguer. I advocated signing Lowrie or an equivalent. This was considered heresy/blasphemy and I was and am being castigated and burned at the stake for it. I couldn't give a s***. My viewpoint is valid and remains valid.

 

There's a pretty decent chance that Lowrie just wouldn't want to come here, and even if so you're looking at at least ~3/33 for him.

 

It's easy to drop hypotheticals like "just sign this guy instead" but people need to realize that not every player is available to every team. Especially for a team like Toronto trying to attract free agents, more often than not they basically have no fair chance at signing them.

 

Toritani is much more likely to sign in Toronto for multiple reasons and he fits for multiple reasons. It's not a case of Toritani vs. Lowrie, because that's a fantasy choice for Toronto. In reality it might be a case of Toritani vs. the status quo, or Toritani vs. some trade overpay for a stopgap 2B like Daniel Murphy when the club already has Devon Travis who they think can fill 2B in 2016 or even late 2015.

 

Toritani has merits as a realistic target; Jed Lowrie remains nothing but a FA unicorn.

 

should of just signed Robinsin Canoe ugh

[Nox]

should of

 

Magnificent troll.

[o2cui2i]

Maybe they post on this board

 

Cito = Gruber92 and/or oldskool (or whatever he has become)

Beeston = Moogy (who has been missing lately??)

 

moogy wont be around unless he's using an alter ego.

[JTech780]

Could be a low risk/high reward signing. Take a shot and see what you got.

 

 

I would stay away from Lowrie, he will cost too much and he is somewhere between an average to below average hitter, and is below average defensively at SS, and listening to MLB radio, I have heard that some on the A's feel he is worse defensively at 2B. Not worth the money IMO.

[gruber92]

Your talking out of your ass. From what I can see from the stats Toritani is similar to Kawasaki... but he is Kawasaki +. That means he walks a bit more, and hits for a bit more gap power. He's had a season with 20 homers... while Kawasaki never cracked 4.

 

And Kawasaki is almost good enough... Kawasaki can put up a .320 on base despite barely being able to get the ball out of the infield. Add a bit of pop to Kawasaki and you get an ok player.

 

Kawasaki hits .230 .320 .300 (approximately)

 

Toritani is a bit better

 

Toritani can be projected for .250 .340 .350 (approximately)

 

Ryan Goins can be projected for a .270 on base percentage. His defense (especially as a second basemen) can't make up for that.

 

On base percentage is important. If you get guys with a .330 on base percentage they are huge improvements on Goins. Goins is a negative WAR player. Even Kawasaki is better then Goins.

 

Want to bet Goins is not a negative WAR player? Where the f*** you get this s*** from?

[King]

 

Want to bet Goins is not a negative WAR player? Where the f*** you get this s*** from?

 

Ryan Goins - ~100 games played, -0.3 career fWAR.

[Laika]

And here I am thinking we live in a post "can Ryan Goins stick?" world.

[gruber92]

I don't see things as black and white as you do. If you had the choice between Ryan Goins "major league short stop" who has +1 WAR defense and -3 WAR offense and Hypothetical Joe Blow who has -1 WAR defense and 10 WAR offense. Who would you choose??

 

I am guessing you would choose your boy Goins because he is a "major league short stop".

 

"Major league short stop" is a meaningless term. Every player needs to be evaluated as a whole and how they fit in with the team.

 

I don't think he is a "major league short stop" because there is no such thing. Every player from EE to Derek Jeter to Ozzie Smith has a "value" as a short stop. Is EE a "major league" short stop?? I am guessing no. Is (was) Ozzie Smith a major league short stop?? I am guessing yes.

 

Now is Derek Jeter a major league short stop?? Based on what I heard Toritani is probably as good a short stop as Derek Jeter. His bat and "reputation" may not be up to an everyday job at short stop.... but he is not coming here for that. He is here to play second and fill in at short when Reyes is injured.

 

 

anyway here is a scouting report...

 

"As was the case with Nakajima, a lack of data makes it hard to tell if the award was justified or not, but the scouts seem to agree that Toritani is a plus fielder. His already strong arm — believed by some to be the best among contemporary shortstops — is augmented by his speed, allowing him to cover a lot of ground and gun down runners. He does, however, have a tendency to make throwing errors. Like other shortstops coming over from Japan, doubts will always linger about the fielding aspects of the position, regardless of how good or bad the player has been. An NL scout doubts that Toritani will stay at short if he comes to MLB: "I think he's a good player; he's solid…If an MLB team does decide to take him, I don't know if he'll be used as a shortstop. Maybe second base, maybe elsewhere."

 

Are you on drugs? This guy hasn't seen one MLB game in his life and you're saying he's better than Derek Jeter?

 

GTFO.

 

"his reputation"

 

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

[gruber92]

Ryan Goins - ~100 games played, -0.3 career fWAR.

 

Not a fair assessment when playing in spurts. Over the course of consistent play for a season, Goins is a 1.5 - 2 WAR player.